Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[NotCommitted]

I have zero doubt Johnson will be a good player. I don't think signing him long term is a risk if the AAV is half-way sensible. In that case I think at worst you are getting decent value (let's say he maxes out as a 2nd line wing, which seems reasonable floor for him to me) and at best it'll be an absolute steal in a few years.

In a way doing a bridge is the "safer" option but I think Johnson is smart enough player his floor is very high, so signing him early long-term, you could end up with a really really sweet deal. Also I would imagine players generally like being offered long-term deals early, it's very safe money for them - even if they think they'll be stars in the league, there's always risk of injury etc. outside their control. It also shows them the team values them and has faith in them.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

With the way Devils cap is set they have a chance to be contenders for the next 5 years eazy.

i don't disagree with this at all – just saying that it's fair to question which is more valuable:

1. getting a very good player's age 21-28 seasons at a team-friendly cap hit, then either losing them for nothing or paying them market value for their age 29-37 seasons, or
2. getting that same player's age 21-24 seasons for far below market value (bridge), then their age 24-32 seasons at near-market value, then having more flexibility with term on their next deal as they exit their prime years

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

i don't disagree with this at all – just saying that it's fair to question which is more valuable:

1. getting a very good player's age 21-28 seasons at a team-friendly cap hit, then either losing them for nothing or paying them market value for their age 29-37 seasons, or
2. getting that same player's age 21-24 seasons for far below market value (bridge), then their age 24-32 seasons at near-market value, then having more flexibility with term on their next deal as they exit their prime years

Thanks for the thought experiment on this - I didn't think this far ahead in the future so it's certainly expanded my thinking a bit. I guess with the second option a team's cup window could potentially be open for a long time, whereas in the first it could be a bit more limited. Very much 4D chess in my head now.

 

[BB88]

i don't disagree with this at all – just saying that it's fair to question which is more valuable:

1. getting a very good player's age 21-28 seasons at a team-friendly cap hit, then either losing them for nothing or paying them market value for their age 29-37 seasons, or
2. getting that same player's age 21-24 seasons for far below market value (bridge), then their age 24-32 seasons at near-market value, then having more flexibility with term on their next deal as they exit their prime years

This teams window (prime window) isn’t the next few seasons, so are you really getting the full benefits?

If they were a win now team then bridge would make sense.

& I’ll pay gladly the franchise players their longterm UFA deals

 

[cbjthrowaway]

This teams window (prime window) isn’t the next few seasons, so are you really getting the full benefits?

was more of a philosophical question rather than one specific to this team and where they are now

regardless of a team's window, the ideal path, generally speaking, is bridge then long-term. the goal should be to essentially get the contract structure that matt tkachuk's career has followed (just without the trade demand lol). you end up with the same amount of years where their value exceeds their cap hit but without the risk of either paying for twilight years or losing them to UFA.

Bridge then long-term approach:

1. ELC
2. bridge for less than a long-term deal would be (below market value)
3. 8-year deal covering prime years that will become a bargain as the cap goes up (market value for years 1-3, below market for 3-8) expiring at age 32 or 33

Double long-term

1. ELC
2. 8-year RFA deal taking them to age 29 (surplus value in years 2-8)
3. 8-year UFA deal taking them to age 37 (market value in years 1-4, above market value as they age) OR losing them for nothing

with path #1, the risk is that they want out after their bridge deal, at which point they get traded to recoup assets (best case is tkachuk, worst case is debrincat return). with path #2, you have both the risk of losing them to UFA (no return) and the risk of not letting them hit UFA (unmovable expensive long-term deal for an aging player).

meanwhile, with the bridge approach, you still get surplus value while they're young (during the bridge), but you also get surplus value in the back end of their prime years as the cap goes up – it's just the first few years of their third contract that are going to be roughly market value.

 

[stevo61]

A bridge deal takes Johnson right past the time the cap is going up an expected 10 mil in a couple years. If we bridge him he'll be making more than Jack Hughes Ill wager

 

[GoJackets1]

Man, this part of the summer is boring.

It’s funny though, both the Nash trade and Jones trade happened on July 23rd. Which also happens to be my birthday. I’d like one Lindholm trade please.

 

[Stubu]

I wonder if CBJ could pry Juuse Saros out of NSH and if they should.

The Duchene buy-out among their other off-season moves could indicate just getting rid of a complacent country club in the locker room, but it might indicate a scorched earth rebuild too, in all but name. I spotted some talk over at HF Preds that their GM had at least hinted at Saros being available if the offer is good enough.

Saros is signed for 2 years at $5.0m. Him as 1G, Elvis as 2G, Tarasov as 3G and moving to starter position in the future could be just what the doctor ordered for 'Boos. (Plan B/C, extend Saros by 2025.)

Thoughts?

Edit: CF shows $4.0m of cap space so someone would have to move... Mathieu's $1.1m? (I have no idea. Just armchairing around. I assume Elvis needs a bounce back year to be reasonably tradeable so that's not it.) I'm sure Jar-Jar Keks is well aware of Finnish goalies out there... has there been any new scuttlebutt about it or CBJ goaltending in general?

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I wonder if CBJ could pry Juuse Saros out of NSH and if they should.

The Duchene buy-out among their other off-season moves could indicate just getting rid of a complacent country club in the locker room, but it might indicate a scorched earth rebuild too, in all but name. I spotted some talk over at HF Preds that their GM had at least hinted at Saros being available if the offer is good enough.

Saros is signed for 2 years at $5.0m. Him as 1G, Elvis as 2G, Tarasov as 3G and moving to starter position in the future could be just what the doctor ordered for 'Boos. (Plan B/C, extend Saros by 2025.)

Thoughts?

* Top 5 goalie in the league
* Only 28 year old
* Cheap contract
* Able to play 65 games/season

That's like Jiricek + 2024 1st to start with. Otherwise NJD would have already got him

 

[Stubu]

* Top 5 goalie in the league
* Only 28 year old
* Cheap contract
* Able to play 65 games/season

That's like Jiricek + 2024 1st to start with. Otherwise NJD would have already got him

Aye, the contract is downright too good, the trade cost would be hefty. Maybe too hefty, that's what you're saying? That was indeed my worry about the whole thing. But depending on Fantilli (of course) CBJ could, just could be a contender already this season, and that's a tempting thought. Okay, powering down my armchair now. Ta for the reply.

 

[VT]

I wonder if CBJ could pry Juuse Saros out of NSH and if they should.

The Duchene buy-out among their other off-season moves could indicate just getting rid of a complacent country club in the locker room, but it might indicate a scorched earth rebuild too, in all but name. I spotted some talk over at HF Preds that their GM had at least hinted at Saros being available if the offer is good enough.

Saros is signed for 2 years at $5.0m. Him as 1G, Elvis as 2G, Tarasov as 3G and moving to starter position in the future could be just what the doctor ordered for 'Boos. (Plan B/C, extend Saros by 2025.)

Thoughts?

Edit: CF shows $4.0m of cap space so someone would have to move... Mathieu's $1.1m? (I have no idea. Just armchairing around. I assume Elvis needs a bounce back year to be reasonably tradeable so that's not it.) I'm sure Jar-Jar Keks is well aware of Finnish goalies out there... has there been any new scuttlebutt about it or CBJ goaltending in general?

Either Saros or Merzlikins. Unfortunately, Elvis has M-NTC and a terrible contract for his performance. So we have to pray either for him to start playing normally or, if he doesn't, for some GM to go crazy and want him on their team without keeping some of the salary.

 

[Stubu]

Either Saros or Merzlikins. Unfortunately, Elvis has M-NTC and a terrible contract for his performance. So we have to pray either for him to start playing normally or, if he doesn't, for some GM to go crazy and want him on their team without keeping some of the salary.

I agree, that's why I thought Jackets are going to keep Elvis for the time being and maybe later try to trade him. So Jar-Jar would have to clear $1m of cap space now to make this happen. And that's a tough ask. I'm not up to speed who could be coming up from the minors and how much that helps with the cap.

Then again, Saros as starter and shouldering the workload could be the stabilizing influence for Elvis, so maybe it would be a problem fixing itself, kind of.

Well, I just posted a thread at TRaFAT inquiring about the trade cost. Do share your insight there if you will.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

There’s no sense in trying to find a replacement for Elvis when there aren’t any true starters really on the market right now and Elvis’ value has never been lower. Wait for him to get a chance to redeem himself in Babcock’s system and/or for the goalie market to turn over, which happens every year or two. If we are doing well at the deadline someone will be available for a mid-round pick. If we aren’t, and if the teams struggles are deemed to fall squarely on Elvis’ shoulders, find some sort of replacement as soon as one comes available, and buy him out next summer (roughly $1.75 x 6) or the year after ($1.65 x 4)

 

[CBJx614]

There’s no sense in trying to find a replacement for Elvis when there aren’t any true starters really on the market right now and Elvis’ value has never been lower. Wait for him to get a chance to redeem himself in Babcock’s system and/or for the goalie market to turn over, which happens every year or two. If we are doing well at the deadline someone will be available for a mid-round pick. If we aren’t, and if the teams struggles are deemed to fall squarely on Elvis’ shoulders, find some sort of replacement as soon as one comes available, and buy him out next summer (roughly $1.75 x 6) or the year after ($1.65 x 4)

I'd argue if we're doing well by the deadline, so will Elvis. And if Elvis and the team are doing well, why trade him?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Teams have tried to pry Saros out of Nashville for a few years now. All have been turned away. I don’t think Trotz went out and signed a bunch of character UFAs just to turn around and trade their teams backbone.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Aye, the contract is downright too good, the trade cost would be hefty. Maybe too hefty, that's what you're saying? That was indeed my worry about the whole thing. But depending on Fantilli (of course) CBJ could, just could be a contender already this season, and that's a tempting thought. Okay, powering down my armchair now. Ta for the reply.

Yeah I don't think it'd be worth it to trade Jiricek, Fantilli or KJ. Goalies are such risky position to put your money/assets in. Best way to get great goaltending is to have a great team. Pretty much every goalie looks great in Vegas and Boston. Leafs turned Campbell into 5m goalie and are doing the same to Samsonov.

 

[Cowumbus]

Kind of an odd number for a F, especially a center. Gavin Brindley is not going to be happy.

 

[Stubu]

Yeah I don't think it'd be worth it to trade Jiricek, Fantilli or KJ. Goalies are such risky position to put your money/assets in. Best way to get great goaltending is to have a great team. Pretty much every goalie looks great in Vegas and Boston. Leafs turned Campbell into 5m goalie and are doing the same to Samsonov.

You'd never trade those assets for near term compete. Where did I ever suggest that?

Goalies don't always look good in Boston or Toronto. Didn't last season. We'll see how it goes next season.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

You'd never trade those assets for near term compete. Where did I ever suggest that?

Goalies don't always look good in Boston or Toronto. Didn't last season. We'll see how it goes next season.

Didn't mean you suggested that. I just believe that's what it takes to get Saros.

Campbell .914sv% (15th for goalies with +30gp). He absolutely sucked around all-star game which hurt the stats. Still got 5m contract because he looked very good for most of the year. Has looked like AHL goalie in another team which proves my point, I think.

Boston wasn't as good of a team in 21-22, but Ullmark and Sweyman had solid years at .917 (9th) and .914 (13th)

 

[CharlotteJacket]

Article from The Athletic listing the teams who have made the most improvement this offseason. They had the CBJ at 18th with this little gem added to the article. "Even with Severson and Provorov in tow, the Blue Jackets still have a bottom-10 defense corps. And they’re not at the top of that list."

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

Article from The Athletic listing the teams who have made the most improvement this offseason. They had the CBJ at 18th with this little gem added to the article. "Even with Severson and Provorov in tow, the Blue Jackets still have a bottom-10 defense corps. And they’re not at the top of that list."

This was a little bit of a strange article for me. The most improved team was Dallas who only acquired Duchene and Craig Smith and offloaded a bunch of players? It seemed like it was heavily based on a model that put a lot of emphasis in guys like Domi having negative value.

edit: Oh, it’s Dom.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Article from The Athletic listing the teams who have made the most improvement this offseason. They had the CBJ at 18th with this little gem added to the article. "Even with Severson and Provorov in tow, the Blue Jackets still have a bottom-10 defense corps. And they’re not at the top of that list."

The wild and sharks are higher than us and they added maroon and duclair

Yeah, okay.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Would love to know how in the world Pittsburgh could pull that off cap-wise.