Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

[CBJx614]

I've been in the pessimistic camp for a long time. That being said, I'm very optimistic about the coming season. While I'm not pleased with the term and deal of Severson, I think he'll be part of a big improvement over last season's sorry Dman collection.

The goaltending situation is my biggest concern-as I'm sure it is most others. If Elvis plays at his level of last season and no one else steps up, it's going to be a long season if Jarmo doesn't dig deep for replacements. But even if the goaltending makes it a trying season, watching Fantilli and Jiricek should prove enjoyable.

From a personal standpoint, I hope that Danforth remains healthy all season and is able to show where he fits in the NHL. I enjoy the hell out of watching Blankenburg and am hoping for him to stay healthy and not become Ryan Murray v2.0 in terms of never ending injuries.

If the goaltending is just adequate, the there's no reason that the CBJ shouldn't be pushing for a playoff spot. The team is more talented and there will be a head coach who isn't in over his head.

I think a lot of the pessimism is rooted into the East being an absolute bear, and us returning with the same two goalies who have sucked the last few years. Which is hard to say they’re wrong even if I’m the optimistic camp.

I have to say realistically - I have no faith in the goaltending. If Elvis produces awesome but I am prepared for injuries, excuses and fair to middling play by our goaltenders. I really hope I am wrong but this is a big gamble going into this season without some insurance.

I get that everyone is worried about goaltending, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't too. But I completely throw out last seasons numbers. We had no defense in front of them, I don't think anyone could have put up good numbers last season in front of that team.

To me, this season is the true test for Elvis. If he puts up subpar numbers this season than it's pretty clear we need to move on. But getting rid of Elvis now is still selling low and we're asking to get bent over if we try moving him now. And we're not going to go add another starting goalie while he's on the roster and tie up 10M between 2 goalies. If he bounces back, great. If not we bite the bullet, find a way to move on and aggressively search for a new a starter in the offseason. We're not expected to make the playoffs this season, so let's see what we got. Next year it becomes a much bigger deal imo.

 

[majormajor]

I get that everyone is worried about goaltending, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't too. But I completely throw out last seasons numbers. We had no defense in front of them, I don't think anyone could have put up good numbers last season in front of that team.

Lol, Korpi just did it.

And we're not going to go add another starting goalie while he's on the roster and tie up 10M between 2 goalies. If he bounces back, great. If not we bite the bullet, find a way to move on and aggressively search for a new a starter in the offseason. We're not expected to make the playoffs this season, so let's see what we got. Next year it becomes a much bigger deal imo.

We don't need to pay a big salary to get an upgrade on Elvis. Even 38 year old Halak was miles better, and is still available. It seems from Jarmo's statements however that he's not looking for an NHL upgrade, he wants to sign a veteran for Cleveland who he can trust as an emergency callup instead of Jet Greaves.

 

[Jovavic]

Maybe Babcock will see the goaltending and be like "f*** it, gotta win 80s Oilers style, OPEN IT UP, BOYS"

 

[majormajor]

Maybe Babcock will see the goaltending and be like "f*** it, gotta win 80s Oilers style, OPEN IT UP, BOYS"

It's funny because I just had Grant Fuhr on my mind. You need a goalie like that if you're going to play wide open. They said that it didn't matter how many goals he'd given up, it didn't make him pout or make him lose focus. Some goalies can't do that, they need their numbers to look nice or they get down on themselves and play worse. An easy thirty save game with two goals against has them feeling better than a 5 goal against game where they actually started off playing better. I think we already know which type Elvis is.

 

[CBJx614]

Lol, Korpi just did it.



We don't need to pay a big salary to get an upgrade on Elvis. Even 38 year old Halak was miles better, and is still available. It seems from Jarmo's statements however that he's not looking for an NHL upgrade, he wants to sign a veteran for Cleveland who he can trust as an emergency callup instead of Jet Greaves.

So you're saying it's possible for a "bad" goalie to rebound and play well? The two seasons before last, Korpi had comparable stats to Elvis last season, on better teams than they played on last season. Last season was the first time Elvis finished under .900 in his career in the NHL, Korpi has finished almost half of his seasons in the league under .900



All I'm saying is we need to wait another season to see how he rebounds.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Lol, Korpi just did it.



We don't need to pay a big salary to get an upgrade on Elvis. Even 38 year old Halak was miles better, and is still available. It seems from Jarmo's statements however that he's not looking for an NHL upgrade, he wants to sign a veteran for Cleveland who he can trust as an emergency callup instead of Jet Greaves.

Korpi was fine .. not great .. he had a 3.17 GAA in Columbus last year .913 save %.. he went to La, 2.13 GAA .. clearly the defense was a tire fire .. Korpi the year before , when we were much better team … 4.15gaa and .877 save percentage . I see no reason why Elvis can’t rebound next year ..

 

[majormajor]

So you're saying it's possible for a "bad" goalie to rebound and play well?

I've never questioned that.

I just don't know why you would pass on adding a .905 type goalie to help your usually-injured rookie and your guy coming off an .876 season.

The more sensible approach would be to let the guy try his bounce back beginning with a tandem or backup role. It worked for Korpi and soon enough he was the starter in the playoffs. Giving Elvis a chance to bounce back and putting all your chips on Elvis bouncing back are two different propositions.

 

[CBJx614]

I've never questioned that.

I just don't know why you would pass on adding a .905 type goalie to help your usually-injured rookie and your guy coming off an .876 season.

The more sensible approach would be to let the guy try his bounce back beginning with a tandem or backup role. It worked for Korpi and soon enough he was the starter in the playoffs. Giving Elvis a chance to bounce back and putting all your chips on Elvis bouncing back are two different propositions.

When did I say I would pass on that? I just don't want to add another 5M/season guy(especially if he also has term) into the rotation. I'd love to go find a journeyman with something to prove.

 

[majormajor]

When did I say I would pass on that? I just don't want to add another 5M/season guy(especially if he also has term) into the rotation. I'd love to go find a journeyman with something to prove.

I'm questioning "You" as in the team, who according to Jarmo are trying to sign a Cleveland goalie (maybe Gillies or Hutchinson return). They're aiming too low to get Halak.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

So you're saying it's possible for a "bad" goalie to rebound and play well? The two seasons before last, Korpi had comparable stats to Elvis last season, on better teams than they played on last season. Last season was the first time Elvis finished under .900 in his career in the NHL, Korpi has finished almost half of his seasons in the league under .900



All I'm saying is we need to wait another season to see how he rebounds.

I agree that he needs a portion of a season. If he's as bad as he was last year after 10 or so games, then it should be game, set and match on his CBJ career. It would be if it weren't for that thing called a contract.

Management needs to take a realistic view of Elvis. I believe that the trauma that Elvis experienced when his friend Klevenkis was killed before his very eyes has impacted his life and play dramatically. Unfortunately, pro hockey isn't a place where you can re-assign an on ice employee who isn't effective where it's very easy to do that in a large business or government agency. While Elvis may need more time to get his head and heart straight, there have to be minimal performance standards for him to meet. He wasn't close to being an NHL caliber goalie last season and if he isn't to begin the season then it's time to cut bait.

I hope that another year away from the tragedy and a better defense will be the tonic which cures Elvis. We shall see.

 

[Monstershockey]

We had no defense in front of them, I don't think anyone could have put up good numbers last season in front of that team.

Korpisalo put up good numbers behind that defense.

 

[Monstershockey]

Korpi the year before , when we were much better team … 4.15gaa and .877 save percentage .

Pretty sure he was playing with a damaged hip as he needed major hip surgery. Not too many goalies would be good with that kind of injury.

 

[koteka]

That's part of why I'm so surprised so many CBJ fans are pessimistic about this upcoming season. Just the defense being healthy would be a huge improvement, but adding both Provy and Severson on top of being healthy should be a HUGE influx of skill and stability

We might lead in a lot more games this year, but I think we are going to lose a ton of games in the 3rd period or overtime. This team is not built to hold leads. We don’t have a goalie you can trust and we don’t have any true good defensive defensemen.

Plus the East is incredibly strong and deep.

 

[Marioesque]

We might lead in a lot more games this year, but I think we are going to lose a ton of games in the 3rd period or overtime. This team is not built to hold leads. We don’t have a goalie you can trust and we don’t have any true good defensive defensemen.

Plus the East is incredibly strong and deep.

This team is built to outscore the enemy, and I think they can do that more often than not even with an insecure goalie behind them. There's so much shooting talent, and now there is more offensively capable D who can feed the forwards better. I think the defense got a lot better, and it's reasonable to expect that to show in goalies numbers too.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

We can say what we want about Elvis’ mindset, but it seems reasonable that having your team losing and feeling like you’re a significant reason for that is damaging to anyone’s psyche. Conversely, if your team wins and you feel like you’re contributing, then you’re more likely to feel positive.

Those seem like obvious points, but I’m going to extrapolate them to suggest that it’s not about raw numbers at all. If you lose 4-1 it’s way worse than winning 5-4 even though, as a goalie, you gave up 4 goals in both scenarios.

I’m not saying the Jackets should be all skate-and-gun. Or that giving up 4 goals a game is a sustainable way to win. I’m making a broader point.

Establish an approach. Set expectations. Win more than you lose. Players will feel better about their play and their contribution.

 

[majormajor]

We can say what we want about Elvis’ mindset, but it seems reasonable that having your team losing and feeling like you’re a significant reason for that is damaging to anyone’s psyche. Conversely, if your team wins and you feel like you’re contributing, then you’re more likely to feel positive.

Those seem like obvious points, but I’m going to extrapolate them to suggest that it’s not about raw numbers at all. If you lose 4-1 it’s way worse than winning 5-4 even though, as a goalie, you gave up 4 goals in both scenarios.

I’m not saying the Jackets should be all skate-and-gun. Or that giving up 4 goals a game is a sustainable way to win. I’m making a broader point.

Establish an approach. Set expectations. Win more than you lose. Players will feel better about their play and their contribution.

I think the point of Gretzky's bit on how valuable Grant Fuhr was, was that other goalies didn't feel good about run and gun even if they were winning. Their own numbers were more important to how confident they played.

 

[koteka]

This team is built to outscore the enemy, and I think they can do that more often than not even with an insecure goalie behind them. There's so much shooting talent, and now there is more offensively capable D who can feed the forwards better. I think the defense got a lot better, and it's reasonable to expect that to show in goalies numbers too.

It’s the start of the third period and you are down to the Jackets, what do you do? The first thing you do is try to get a good hard hit on Fantilli or KJ. Not a cheap hit, but I am sure we’ll see plenty of those. You hit a young important guy hard to see how he’ll react and how the rest of the team reacts. You want the Jackets thinking about that next hit that is coming. And if you can get a Jacket to take a penalty in retaliation, that is even better. The next thing you try to do is bait Severson into a bad pass. The guy can make beautiful passes, but he can make horrible turnovers that lead to scoring chances for the other team. You let him think he has an opening that he doesn’t have and see what happens. Then at the face off circle you say something like “$100 says Elvis gives up a bad goal in the next 5 minutes.” You want the Jackets thinking about Elvis blowing the lead so they play a little tighter and lose the aggressiveness that built their lead. I really could see this team blowing a ton of leads.

 

[majormajor]

It’s the start of the third period and you are down to the Jackets, what do you do? The first thing you do is try to get a good hard hit on Fantilli or KJ. Not a cheap hit, but I am sure we’ll see plenty of those. You hit a young important guy hard to see how he’ll react and how the rest of the team reacts. You want the Jackets thinking about that next hit that is coming. And if you can get a Jacket to take a penalty in retaliation, that is even better. The next thing you try to do is bait Severson into a bad pass. The guy can make beautiful passes, but he can make horrible turnovers that lead to scoring chances for the other team. You let him think he has an opening that he doesn’t have and see what happens. Then at the face off circle you say something like “$100 says Elvis gives up a bad goal in the next 5 minutes.” You want the Jackets thinking about Elvis blowing the lead so they play a little tighter and lose the aggressiveness that built their lead. I really could see this team blowing a ton of leads.

I think thats how it will go, as it would for most super young teams. Veterans know things. What is surprising is that Babs' Leafs weren't worse defensively. They managed to hold leads, at least in the regular season, and those rosters looked really weak defensively on paper.

 

[NotCommitted]

Lol, Korpi just did it.

Korpi was fine .. not great .. he had a 3.17 GAA in Columbus last year .913 save %.. he went to La, 2.13 GAA .. clearly the defense was a tire fire ..

IMO Korpi was ~top5 goalie last season, he had one of the greatest goalie comebacks of recent times. He was putting up above league average numbers in front of one of the worst defenses in the league and once he got to a playoff team he was solidly in that top10 group of goalies.

CBJ with Korpisalo 11-11-3 (.913% sv)
With Tarasov 4-11-1 (.892% sv)
with Elvis 7-18-2 (.876% sv)

What Korpi did with Jackets last season was remarkable and having anyone match or beat that would have been an unreasonable expectation, unless we're talking about having someone like Saros or Hellebuyck in net instead.

 

[BB88]

There’s still going to be plenty of pain, they are still fairly early in their rebuild.

Rebuilding team doesn’t build a perfect roster in 1 offseason.

The defense should be now set for the next 5+ years.
With Fantilli they could have their top6 in place(just needs growth still)

& that leaves the goaltending as the next fix up, pretty confident they won’t try to enter their win window with a goalie duo like this. It will be easier to make changes to goaltending when the roster isn’t full of holes and Merz will have less term on his contract.

They could basically put all their effort on goaltending next offseason with the moves they’ve made this offseason

 

[EspenK]

There’s still going to be plenty of pain, they are still fairly early in their rebuild.

Rebuilding team doesn’t build a perfect roster in 1 offseason.

The defense should be now set for the next 5+ years.
With Fantilli they could have their top6 in place(just needs growth still)

& that leaves the goaltending as the next fix up, pretty confident they won’t try to enter their win window with a goalie duo like this. It will be easier to make changes to goaltending when the roster isn’t full of holes and Merz will have less term on his contract.

They could basically put all their effort on goaltending next offseason with the moves they’ve made this offseason

still early in the rebuild...

defense should now be set for next 5+ years ...

With Fantilli they could have their top6 in place ...

one of these 3 is different than the other two

 

[tunnelvision]

The defense should be now set for the next 5+ years.

Could you elaborate?

 

[KJ Dangler]

Pretty sure he was playing with a damaged hip as he needed major hip surgery. Not too many goalies would be good with that kind of injury.

Now do the 4 years prior to that .. Korpi is lauded around here recently because he rebounded last year ,prior to last year he had a save % below 90%, 4 out of those 5 years .. Elvis is essentially playing hurt , I would argue , last year . And based on statements he’s made , doesn’t sound like he’s gotten the help needed . You don’t declare you’ve moved on , from PTSD , and speak it into existence. Getting rid of Legace was mandatory , I’m pretty optimistic that both Merzlikins and Tarasov both are #1 goalies . Tarasov just needs to stay healthy .. it’s baffling that Tarasov was coming off surgery last year , and Larsen rode him consecutive games in a stretch , at the beginning of last year .

 

[Monstershockey]

Now do the 4 years prior to that .. Korpi is lauded around here recently because he rebounded last year ,prior to last year he had a save % below 90%, 4 out of those 5 years .. Elvis is essentially playing hurt , I would argue , last year . And based on statements he’s made , doesn’t sound like he’s gotten the help needed . You don’t declare you’ve moved on , from PTSD , and speak it into existence. Getting rid of Legace was mandatory , I’m pretty optimistic that both Merzlikins and Tarasov both are #1 goalies . Tarasov just needs to stay healthy .. it’s baffling that Tarasov was coming off surgery last year , and Larsen rode him consecutive games in a stretch , at the beginning of last year .

Ok. The 4 years prior to that Korpi was 46-40-21 as mostly a backup or splitting time with Elvis. The one year he was the #1 goalie, he played well enough to get an all-star nod. Not elite, but not as bad as you say.

Also, to go a little further, Korpi's first 160 games:
69-56-21, .905, 2.90.

Elvis, 55-62-22, .906, 3.13.

I buy the Kivlenielks passing to a point, but Elvis' numbers the season before last, and closer to the tragedy, he put up numbers more along the lines of his career total.

I have said in the past that I felt both goalies were about the same, and is has played out that way so far. I have also said that Elvis wasted his time overseas and should have come straight over here. I think that has hurt him, too.

As far as Lagace goes, I think it was more Elvis than him, but the goalie coach is easier to replace.

 

[CBJx614]

Ok. The 4 years prior to that Korpi was 46-40-21 as mostly a backup or splitting time with Elvis. The one year he was the #1 goalie, he played well enough to get an all-star nod. Not elite, but not as bad as you say.

Also, to go a little further, Korpi's first 160 games:
69-56-21, .905, 2.90.

Elvis, 55-62-22, .906, 3.13.

I buy the Kivlenielks passing to a point, but Elvis' numbers the season before last, and closer to the tragedy, he put up numbers more along the lines of his career total.

I have said in the past that I felt both goalies were about the same, and is has played out that way so far. I have also said that Elvis wasted his time overseas and should have come straight over here. I think that has hurt him, too.

As far as Lagace goes, I think it was more Elvis than him, but the goalie coach is easier to replace.

Eh, Elvis would never be able to move on with Legace on the staff. If they were closer to friends than coaches before the accident, it was only worse after. Combined with the death threats against his family early in the season, I'm giving Elvis a pass on last season. You just don't magically get over that stuff, professional athlete or not.

While I think both Korpi and Elvis are good enough goalies neither are anything special and I think we have some real recency bias going on in this debate. Before last season nearly everyone in this CBJ forum was beyond ready to jettison Korpi from the team. And now that he had a good season and Elvis had an absolute career worst were ready to jettison him(and his big ass contract)

But if we were to pay to jettison Elvis (which we would if we wanted to trade him) and he rebounds and goes to lead a team to a cup or win Vezina everyone would be calling for Jarmos head for not giving him more time and paying to move him. I think we just need to give it a season and see if Elvis can regain some form and composure and regain some trade value. And if we need to make a move next season, basically every position outside of goaltending has franchise caliber players, we can really focus on a acquiring a permanent netminder moving forward between the TDL and start or next season.

Why are we in a huge rush to replace him now if no one of us expects us to make the playoffs this season anyway?