Sportsnet: Arizona have received an offer matching their asking price for Jakob Chychrun.

[Jumptheshark]

It's not just Knight, it's dumping Koskinen. I know he's a UFA at season's end but Edmonton has no cap space to add additional depth to their roster, Knight is on an ELC for the next 2.5 seasons. You're giving up the 1st and Bourgault for cap space and Knight. Knight also theoretically solves your goalie problem for the next decade, a selling point to your boy McDavid. Finish fixing your D and your forward depth and you're a favorite for the cup.

Oilers have already paid 1/2 of Koskinen's contract and like you said he is a UFA at the seasons end--so they do not need add as much sugar as some would want. Oilers would be better served putting Koskinen on waivers and sending him to the farm(he has a NTC not a NMC) and saving 1 mill than giving away that many assets
Spencer is on .925--oilers have room to add him without moving Kosk

 

[Chayos]

It's not just Knight, it's dumping Koskinen. I know he's a UFA at season's end but Edmonton has no cap space to add additional depth to their roster, Knight is on an ELC for the next 2.5 seasons. You're giving up the 1st and Bourgault for cap space and Knight. Knight also theoretically solves your goalie problem for the next decade, a selling point to your boy McDavid. Finish fixing your D and your forward depth and you're a favorite for the cup.

If that is the case we will keep Koskinen and pay less because Knight is cheap this year anyways.

 

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

Can we have Lundell if we ask nicely?

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

Moving Knight wouldn't be a great idea... Edmonton definitely comes out on top here though lol

Knight is still not a proven asset, Florida is definitely the winner here if none of the prospects pan out as expected. Arizona has the opportunity to be the winner if 2 or more of the prospects turn out to be top 3/top 2 players. Edmonton has the biggest opportunity to lose this deal. They assume the highest risk and the most difficult to achieve reward in an effort to solve a decade long problem.

Knight is a great prospect with a real shot at being an NHL starter, I'd imagine that today he is somewhere between the 25th and 64th best goalie in the league, at 20 years old. That's phenomenal, but that's the only piece Edmonton receives beyond some cap space that they would otherwise gain in 3/4 months. If he busts as a career backup, they lose that deal hard. If none of the prospects or picks pan out for Arizona, they lose their deal hard. This proposal is very risky, boom or bust potential.

Chychrun + Boyd/Larsson for Vatrano + Lundell + Tippett + 1st is a much safer play and the one I would expect from Arizona. Florida could then turn around and offer Knight to Edmonton for Koskinen (50%) + '22 1st + Bourgault and recoup some youth when they are already locked into a $10m starter for the next 4 seasons.

Again, Florida fans don't want to trade Lundell, but Florida is clearly highly interested in Chychrun. The middle ground is not Denisenko or Samoskevich, it's Knight. Knight would presumably be unappealing to Arizona, moving him somewhere that would value him highly would be beneficial, Edmonton. Everyone but Arizona gets what they want, we get a pile of stuff we hope becomes what we want.

If this came off in a way that sounds like I'm defensive or anything, that's not the intent. I'm trying to build a clear view of the "Why" and tend to lean towards a colder language when doing that.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

Oilers have already paid 1/2 of Koskinen's contract and like you said he is a UFA at the seasons end--so they do not need add as much sugar as some would want. Oilers would be better served putting Koskinen on waivers and sending him to the farm(he has a NTC not a NMC) and saving 1 mill than giving away that many assets
Spencer is on .925--oilers have room to add him without moving Kosk

So Knight for a 1st and a conditional '23 2nd then? If he plays more than 20 games than we receive the '23 2nd? Some of the value for Knight I had locked into Bourgault, making that a conditional pick with no cap coming back probably evens out the value better anyway.

 

[VijayPatel11]

Knight is still not a proven asset, Florida is definitely the winner here if none of the prospects pan out as expected. Arizona has the opportunity to be the winner if 2 or more of the prospects turn out to be top 3/top 2 players. Edmonton has the biggest opportunity to lose this deal. They assume the highest risk and the most difficult to achieve reward in an effort to solve a decade long problem.

Knight is a great prospect with a real shot at being an NHL starter, I'd imagine that today he is somewhere between the 25th and 64th best goalie in the league, at 20 years old. That's phenomenal, but that's the only piece Edmonton receives beyond some cap space that they would otherwise gain in 3/4 months. If he busts as a career backup, they lose that deal hard. If none of the prospects or picks pan out for Arizona, they lose their deal hard. This proposal is very risky, boom or bust potential.

Chychrun + Boyd/Larsson for Vatrano + Lundell + Tippett + 1st is a much safer play and the one I would expect from Arizona. Florida could then turn around and offer Knight to Edmonton for Koskinen (50%) + '22 1st + Bourgault and recoup some youth when they are already locked into a $10m starter for the next 4 seasons.

Again, Florida fans don't want to trade Lundell, but Florida is clearly highly interested in Chychrun. The middle ground is not Denisenko or Samoskevich, it's Knight. Knight would presumably be unappealing to Arizona, moving him somewhere that would value him highly would be beneficial, Edmonton. Everyone but Arizona gets what they want, we get a pile of stuff we hope becomes what we want.

If this came off in a way that sounds like I'm defensive or anything, that's not the intent. I'm trying to build a clear view of the "Why" and tend to lean towards a colder language when doing that.

I understand why Arizona would want these types of players for Chychrun. I personally believe that the future potential upside of Knight and Lundell outweighs the value Chychrun would bring, especially considering his less than stellar play this season. If this were the beginning of this season, before the mess, I would agree with you that at least Knight would have to be included to make a deal, but I don't feel all too great about it as of now.

 

[Desert Panther]

I appreciate the recognition of effort but no Lundell and no Knight for Chychrun? I mean, I'm trying here, meet me half way.

Can't on that one. It's pretty simple. Those are the two "prospects" that the Panthers will be unwilling to give up. Lundell is a dark horse Calder candidate already and leads the team in shorthanded time as a rookie. Knight is the tendie of the future. If the Coyotes insist on either of them, there won't be a deal to be had.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

I understand why Arizona would want these types of players for Chychrun. I personally believe that the future potential upside of Knight and Lundell outweighs the value Chychrun would bring, especially considering his less than stellar play this season. If this were the beginning of this season, before the mess, I would agree with you that at least Knight would have to be included to make a deal, but I don't feel all too great about it as of now.

Fair, but I have to ask, if this were Ekblad, who is clearly a 1D, playing for us and having an abysmal season, would you still say no? If I recall, 2 years ago there was a very large group of various fans calling Ekblad a bust, not just a top 4 d who's being hyped, a full on, throw him in the garbage bust.

Every Arizona fan is telling this forum that Chychrun is a top pairing D, and those more zealous fans are using words like "star", "elite", and "#1". Our GM is asking for a price point that suggests he believes Chychrun is a top pairing with #1 upside, a guy with extensive hockey prospecting knowledge and a track record of success in STL. GM's involved in the talks are starting to meet the criteria (not necessarily value or correct pieces) suggesting they believe Chychrun is a high quality piece. When do we decide that that information is valuable to our assessments and begin tailoring our proposals to reflect those assessments?

Again, not trying to be defensive or point fingers, I just want to ask some hard questions about what could be among the biggest deals of the season.

 

[TheShape]

Fair, but I have to ask, if this were Ekblad, who is clearly a 1D, playing for us and having an abysmal season, would you still say no? If I recall, 2 years ago there was a very large group of various fans calling Ekblad a bust, not just a top 4 d who's being hyped, a full on, throw him in the garbage bust.

Every Arizona fan is telling this forum that Chychrun is a top pairing D, and those more zealous fans are using words like "star", "elite", and "#1". Our GM is asking for a price point that suggests he believes Chychrun is a top pairing with #1 upside, a guy with extensive hockey prospecting knowledge and a track record of success in STL. GM's involved in the talks are starting to meet the criteria (not necessarily value or correct pieces) suggesting they believe Chychrun is a high quality piece. When do we decide that that information is valuable to our assessments and begin tailoring our proposals to reflect those assessments?

Again, not trying to be defensive or point fingers, I just want to ask some hard questions about what could be among the biggest deals of the season.

Then by all means see it through and keep the player, like Florida did with Ekblad. Chychrun is worth whatever teams are willing to pay, and given his awful stats (not entirely his fault) don't really put Arizona in a position of leverage. I personally don't believe he's a 1D, so if I'm Bill Zito I'm hanging up the phone the second I hear Lundell or Knight's name.

Rangers I think are the best trading partner here.

 

[majormajor]

something around 2 of Bean/Foudy/Bemstrom/Texier/Marchenko plus the 1st.

Arizona fans arent getting what they think they are in trade, and the whole its our way or no way has already been proven wrong through NHL history. Even the biggest trades in Eichel and Jones didnt return as much as Arizona fans expect, even though both players are better.

You're saying Ceulemans is off limits but throwing in Texier + Marchenko + the 1st?

Honestly, trying to follow your evaluations is a little confusing.

I can understand not being willing to put Ceulemans into play, he's killing it right now, but Texier and Marchenko are big time assets.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Can we have Lundell if we ask nicely?

No, it just makes no sense from a Fla perspective. Lundell adds another 5+ years to our window, along with Knight. It would be great to get JC but it's not worth the cost of shortening our window. We can acquire other D.

 

[majormajor]

At the risk of sparking yet another "no, not Schneider, you can have Lundkvist instead, no really he's as good or even better, TAKE HIM INSTEAD" type deba(t|cl)e, would there be any receptiveness to getting one of Svozil or Knazko instead of Ceulemans? That's a lot more palatable to the Jackets ('cause they're LDs) and they're all three rated about the same in our prospect pool.

EDIT: In point of fact, EliteProspects thought Svozil was the one who should have been the first-rounder instead of Ceulemans, but that was at draft time...

I think they were all rated the same months ago, but it's hard to argue that they'd be similarly valued now after Ceulemans has taken off. When an 18 year old D that just made the jump from the AJHL is suddenly the best player on the Wisconsin Badgers, that's a big f***ing deal.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

Then by all means see it through and keep the player, like Florida did with Ekblad. Chychrun is worth whatever teams are willing to pay, and given his awful stats (not entirely his fault) don't really put Arizona in a position of leverage. I personally don't believe he's a 1D, so if I'm Bill Zito I'm hanging up the phone the second I hear Lundell or Knight's name.

Rangers I think are the best trading partner here.

I'd prefer it haha, but us fans are dealt the cards our GM's choose. Florida is in the mix and players like Knight and Lundell are among the rumored targets. Not saying they will be moved, just that's the info we have to work off of.

Like Florida, it depends on the return from NY. Schneider, Laf, or KK meet the upside we'd expect back but are valuable players to acquire. I'm not sure I'm comfortable with a pile of good stuff instead of a potentially great thing and some stuff with warts. I want to like Robertson + Lundkvist as a viable replacement for Schneider because it makes the deal easy, not sure that either is showing the necessary upside or necessary chance to hit that upside for a deal to come to fruition. Using both players in place of Schneider would likely also require AZ to add something they don't want to add when they aren't even getting the player they want.

I just don't see a scenario where one of the 2 fanbases don't balk in a deal with Arizona.

LA seems like they have the best need to asset ratio, but that team also feels a few seasons behind NY and Florida where they wouldn't feel the pressure to make a move now.

Either BA will need to cave (seems unlikely based on past deals) or another GM will need to cave (seems more likely considering media is pumping the trade tires). I'm trying to follow the evidence, good news or bad.

 

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

No, it just makes no sense from a Fla perspective. Lundell adds another 5+ years to our window, along with Knight. It would be great to get JC but it's not worth the cost of shortening our window. We can acquire other D.

I agree. I think part of the coyotes perceived aggressiveness to get this done soon has to do with the fact that the east is all but set. Soon there will be tons of cheaper D options on the market. I also feel like the Panthers will be outbid if Lundell and Knight are absolutely off the table. As alot have said, the rangers are likely the best trade partner in the end.

 

[Jakey53]

Teams don't want to pony up less, more valuable assets (Lundell, Schneider, McTravish, so on). I'm being agreeable for the sake of entertainment and asking for more parts to satisfy.

If it helps:

To Arizona:
Vatrano
Knight
Tippett
Ludvig
1st

To Florida:
Chychrun

To Arizona:
Koskinen
1st
Bourgault

To Edmonton:
Knight

Broken up, it's less partsie.

Oilers need a proven goalie, not some unproven pie in the sky goalie.

 

[Sm00chy]

I just really hope a goaltender is not the centerpiece of a FLA trade

 

[TheShape]

I'd prefer it haha, but us fans are dealt the cards our GM's choose. Florida is in the mix and players like Knight and Lundell are among the rumored targets. Not saying they will be moved, just that's the info we have to work off of.

Like Florida, it depends on the return from NY. Schneider, Laf, or KK meet the upside we'd expect back but are valuable players to acquire. I'm not sure I'm comfortable with a pile of good stuff instead of a potentially great thing and some stuff with warts. I want to like Robertson + Lundkvist as a viable replacement for Schneider because it makes the deal easy, not sure that either is showing the necessary upside or necessary chance to hit that upside for a deal to come to fruition. Using both players in place of Schneider would likely also require AZ to add something they don't want to add when they aren't even getting the player they want.

I just don't see a scenario where one of the 2 fanbases don't balk in a deal with Arizona.

LA seems like they have the best need to asset ratio, but that team also feels a few seasons behind NY and Florida where they wouldn't feel the pressure to make a move now.

Either BA will need to cave (seems unlikely based on past deals) or another GM will need to cave (seems more likely considering media is pumping the trade tires). I'm trying to follow the evidence, good news or bad.

Schneider + Kravtsov or Schneider + 1st is probably fair value. You have to keep in mind that Chychrun won't be utilized as a 1D on either NYR or FLA, more likely anchors the 2nd pair and isn't going to run either 1st PP unit. So these teams likely won't pay 1D prices for someone playing top 4 minutes.

I think it's in Arizona's best interest to move Chychrun before the deadline, GMs get desperate mid-season and more willing to overpay.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Florida traded Levi because they had Knight.

Trading Knight would be Florida trading LT goaltending for LT d + ST goaltending.

If they feel Bob is back to his best AND can stay there, as painful as it would be, then they deal Knight.

Thats because I think Lundell is a complete non starter.

Question is that good enough (with other pieces) for Zona?

Seems like it’s not and they are waiting for other teams to come to the table more their liking.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

Schneider + Kravtsov or Schneider + 1st is probably fair value. You have to keep in mind that Chychrun won't be utilized as a 1D on either NYR or FLA, more likely anchors the 2nd pair and isn't going to run either 1st PP unit. So these teams likely won't pay 1D prices for someone playing top 4 minutes.

I think it's in Arizona's best interest to move Chychrun before the deadline, GMs get desperate mid-season and more willing to overpay.

Moving Chychrun to either team gives them two 25 minute a night pairings as great cup insurance should 1 go down, for 3 more seasons. Having a good 3rd pair for both makes it possible for their blue line to be very durable because they can let guys rest when they need to. Arizona has gone far in the past in large part because they had formidable blue lines that drove offense (and goaltending, very often), the Panthers and the Rangers have far superior forwards to any of those Arizona teams. This is a win it kind of move and I wouldn't fault either for making it.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Schneider + Kravtsov or Schneider + 1st is probably fair value. You have to keep in mind that Chychrun won't be utilized as a 1D on either NYR or FLA, more likely anchors the 2nd pair and isn't going to run either 1st PP unit. So these teams likely won't pay 1D prices for someone playing top 4 minutes.

I think it's in Arizona's best interest to move Chychrun before the deadline, GMs get desperate mid-season and more willing to overpay.

Tampa had Hedman already and still paid 1D price for McDonagh. He had only 1 and 1/2 seasons left while Chychrun has 2 additional ones. Also McDonagh caphit % was higher than Chychrun. New York got a 1st, former 1st, former early 2nd and a conditional 1st that ended up a 2nd. So I'm not that familiar with Schneider but it seems weird that his value is so high that all it takes is him and a 1st for Chychrun? Again Chychrun has 3 more years after this, why is nobody paying anything for those last 2 years? These offers are what you see for 1 and 1/2 year left players.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I agree. I think part of the coyotes perceived aggressiveness to get this done soon has to do with the fact that the east is all but set. Soon there will be tons of cheaper D options on the market. I also feel like the Panthers will be outbid if Lundell and Knight are absolutely off the table. As alot have said, the rangers are likely the best trade partner in the end.

If I was a betting man, he's going to Rangers or Kings.

 

[elitepete]

Schneider + Kravtsov or Schneider + 1st is probably fair value. You have to keep in mind that Chychrun won't be utilized as a 1D on either NYR or FLA, more likely anchors the 2nd pair and isn't going to run either 1st PP unit. So these teams likely won't pay 1D prices for someone playing top 4 minutes.

I think it's in Arizona's best interest to move Chychrun before the deadline, GMs get desperate mid-season and more willing to overpay.

That's nowhere near fair value. Chychrun would probably pair with Fox on the 1st pairing. Even if he doesn't, you are playing a #1 D on the 2nd pairing where he will dominate the opposition.

A 23 year old #1 D signed for a severely underpair cap hit is worth more than Schneider and a 1st. I swear Rangers fans think Schneider is like the next Lidstrom or something.

 

[elitepete]

Tampa had Hedman already and still paid 1D price for McDonagh. He had only 1 and 1/2 seasons left while Chychrun has 2 additional ones. Also McDonagh caphit % was higher than Chychrun. New York got a 1st, former 1st, former early 2nd and a conditional 1st that ended up a 2nd. So I'm not that familiar with Schneider but it seems weird that his value is so high that all it takes is him and a 1st for Chychrun? Again Chychrun has 3 more years after this, why is nobody paying anything for those last 2 years? These offers are what you see for 1 and 1/2 year left players.

Nevermind the fact that Chychrun is 4 years younger than McDonagh was when he got traded, along with the fact that the McDonagh trade was seen as an underpayment by Tampa.

 

[Boud]

That's nowhere near fair value. Chychrun would probably pair with Fox on the 1st pairing. Even if he doesn't, you are playing a #1 D on the 2nd pairing where he will dominate the opposition.

A 23 year old #1 D signed for a severely underpair cap hit is worth more than Schneider and a 1st. I swear Rangers fans think Schneider is like the next Lidstrom or something.

Chychrun is a #1 D? Holy are the standards ever low. He has a lot to prove still to be considered a #1D.

 

[grapes55]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how young Chychrun is along with being an excellent player and under contract. He basically has his whole prime still in front of him