Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[Commander Clueless]

Less, although I don't think that's necessarily Dubas' fault. I think it has more to do with the trajectory of the team projecting less hope.

There's a lot of hope watching kids with talent like Matthews, Marner, Nylander, etc. grow to their potential. There's less hope when they hit the normal roadblocks of turning that talent into a team that can compete for a championship, which is where we are struggling right now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner and Point are very good comparable except for contracts.

They're not. Marner was significantly better, despite the fact that Point was older and had some of the best linemate quality in the entire league.

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Point: 2.35

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.06
Point: 1.88

ES Goals/60

Point: 1.01
Marner: 0.86

ES Linemate quality (4 most common linemates, in order, and their ES P/60 over the sample)

Marner: (Bozak - 1.88, JVR - 2.21, Tavares - 2.59, Hyman - 1.82)
Point: (Kucherov - 3.09, Johnson - 1.96, Palat - 1.97, Gourde - 2.36)

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Point: 5.57

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Point: 3.27

PP Goals/60

Point: 2.88
Marner: 1.56

PP Linemate quality (4 most common linemates, in order, and their PP P/60 over the sample)

Marner: (Kadri - 5.49, JVR - 5.51, Bozak - 4.37, Tavares - 5.64)
Point: (Kucherov - 8.38, Stamkos - 7.72, Palat - 4.23, Johnson - 4.55)

Let's also take a look at the ages, since that affects production. The younger they are, the more impressive it is and the more it impacts the projection of their production through their primes.

Age:

Marner: 19.4 - 21.9
Point: 20.6 - 23.1

As we can see, Marner is doing this while being 1.2 years younger, which is much more impressive.

If we apply equal TOI (16:30 ES, 3:30 PP) to help us visualize, this is essentially like comparing...

80 point player between the ages of 20-23 with some of the best linemate quality in the league.
vs.
92 point player between the ages of 19-22, with mediocre linemate quality.

Point has a C.H. % of 8.28% vs Marner of 13.37 % with CBA max limit of 16% per individual, with Point still an RFA at completion vs UFA for Marner.

That's a pretty weird way to say Point got half the term. CBA max is 20%.

Renewal math ..

Tampa Bay is saving [$65,358,000 - $20,250,000] = +$45,108,000 cap space over the next 3 years or $4.143 mil AAV/season

Um... what kind of math is this? Tampa is not saving anywhere close to 45 million over 3 years.

Reason Kucherov his teammate put up 128 points lead the league in scoring and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies and re-signed for 8 years @ $9.5 mil per.

Once again, as has already been pointed out to you, this is wrong. Kucherov signed before that season.

 

[Mess]

A little honesty would go a long way and at least give those differing views a little credibility.

Here is one of those views in terms of feeling worse when it comes to current Leafs situation vs Dubas cap spending and Cup competitiveness.

The road to the Stanley Cup for the Leafs goes through the Atlantic division which means Div rivals Boston and Tampa Bay are the 2 teams that stand in Leafs path to Cup.

Cap usage: (for top 3 players over next 3 seasons for the players statistically).
Boston ... Bergeron + Marchand + Pastrnak .... Total Cap usage = [$6.875 mil + $6.125 mil + $6.66 mil] = $19.67 mil (of $81.5 mil max)
Tampa .... Kucherov + Stamkos + Point ................. Total Cap usage = [$9.50 mil + $8.50 mil + $6.75 mil] = $24.75 mil
vs
Toronto .. Matthews + Tavares + Marner ......... Total Cap usage - [$11.634 mil + $11.0 mil + $10.893 mil] = $33.527 mil

Toronto: STRIKE #1

Production:
Boston ... Bergeron (61 games 31- 25- 56 points) + Marchand (70 games 28-59-87 points) + Pasta (70 games 48-47-95 points) = Totals ... 201 games 107 goals 131 assists = 238 points
Tampa ... Kucherov (68 games 33-52- 85 points) + Stamkos (57 games 29 -37- 66 points) + Point (66 games 25-39-64 points) = Totals ...... 191 games 87 goals 128 assists = 215 points
vs
Toronto .. Matthews (70 games 47-33-80 points) + Tavares (63 games 26-34-60 points) + Marner (59 games 16-51-67 points) = Totals ....... 192 games 89 goals 118 assists = 207 points

Toronto: STRIKE #2

Standings:
#1 overall ... Boston ... 70 games 44 wins 14 losses 12 OTL = 100 points & 227 GF .. 174 GA = +53 goal differential
#3 overall .. Tampa .... 70 games 43 wins 21 losses 6 OTL = 92 points & 245 GF .. 195 GA = +50 goal differential
vs.
#12 overall .. Toronto .. 70 games 36 wins 25 losses 9 OTL = 81 points & 238 GF .. 227 GA = +11 goal differential

Toronto: STRIKE #3

Not sure how any Leaf fan can look at those facts and honestly believe Leafs are positioned well and in a good position of optimism?

Bang for your Cap $ and the impact on the standings vs cap usage are all connected.

PS. Leafs are paying Nylander more $6.96 mil AAV > than any one of Boston's top 3 and > Point of TB.

 

[deletethis]

Because all those players were worse players than Matthews/Marner at time of signing, some significantly. They were not comparable players.

U cant B sirius. Kucherov, Pastrnak? U got stripped of the puck again while standing still. Move ur feet.

 

[Dekes For Days]

U cant B sirius. Kucherov, Pastrnak?

Yes, they were much worse players when they signed their post-ELC contracts. You are looking at them through the lens of what they are now, and even the perception of what they are now is incredibly inflated due to some of the highest overall linemate quality in the league.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Here is one of those views in terms of feeling worse when it comes to current Leafs situation vs Dubas cap spending and Cup competitiveness.

The road to the Stanley Cup for the Leafs goes through the Atlantic division which means Div rivals Boston and Tampa Bay are the 2 teams that stand in Leafs path to Cup.

Cap usage: (for top 3 players over next 3 seasons for the players statistically).
Boston ... Bergeron + Marchand + Pastrnak .... Total Cap usage = [$6.875 mil + $6.125 mil + $6.66 mil] = $19.67 mil (of $81.5 mil max)
Tampa .... Kucherov + Stamkos + Point ................. Total Cap usage = [$9.50 mil + $8.50 mil + $6.75 mil] = $24.75 mil
vs
Toronto .. Matthews + Tavares + Marner ......... Total Cap usage - [$11.634 mil + $11.0 mil + $10.893 mil] = $33.527 mil

Toronto: STRIKE #1

Production:
Boston ... Bergeron (61 games 31- 25- 56 points) + Marchand (70 games 28-59-87 points) + Pasta (70 games 48-47-95 points) = Totals ... 201 games 107 goals 131 assists = 238 points
Tampa ... Kucherov (68 games 33-52- 85 points) + Stamkos (57 games 29 -37- 66 points) + Point (66 games 25-39-64 points) = Totals ...... 191 games 87 goals 128 assists = 215 points
vs
Toronto .. Matthews (70 games 47-33-80 points) + Tavares (63 games 26-34-60 points) + Marner (59 games 16-51-67 points) = Totals ....... 192 games 89 goals 118 assists = 207 points

Toronto: STRIKE #2

Standings:
#1 overall ... Boston ... 70 games 44 wins 14 losses 12 OTL = 100 points & 227 GF .. 174 GA = +53 goal differential
#3 overall .. Tampa .... 70 games 43 wins 21 losses 6 OTL = 92 points & 245 GF .. 195 GA = +50 goal differential
vs.
#12 overall .. Toronto .. 70 games 36 wins 25 losses 9 OTL = 81 points & 238 GF .. 227 GA = +11 goal differential

Toronto: STRIKE #3

Not sure how any Leaf fan can look at those facts and honestly believe Leafs are positioned well and in a good position of optimism?

Bang for your Cap $ and the impact on the standings vs cap usage are all connected.

PS. Leafs are paying Nylander more $6.96 mil AAV > than any one of Boston's top 3 and > Point of TB.

Winning a Cup not a CAP thing. It is about icing a team which can beat your rivals. We can beat tampa in a long series. We likely lose to Bruins in a long series. Of course upsets and injuries can factor into it in playoff hockey. Hoping Florida knocks out Bruins. So we can get through atlantic.

 

[Fogelhund]

Here is one of those views in terms of feeling worse when it comes to current Leafs situation vs Dubas cap spending and Cup competitiveness.

The road to the Stanley Cup for the Leafs goes through the Atlantic division which means Div rivals Boston and Tampa Bay are the 2 teams that stand in Leafs path to Cup.

Cap usage: (for top 3 players over next 3 seasons for the players statistically).
Boston ... Bergeron + Marchand + Pastrnak .... Total Cap usage = [$6.875 mil + $6.125 mil + $6.66 mil] = $19.67 mil (of $81.5 mil max)
Tampa .... Kucherov + Stamkos + Point ................. Total Cap usage = [$9.50 mil + $8.50 mil + $6.75 mil] = $24.75 mil
vs
Toronto .. Matthews + Tavares + Marner ......... Total Cap usage - [$11.634 mil + $11.0 mil + $10.893 mil] = $33.527 mil

Toronto: STRIKE #1

Production:
Boston ... Bergeron (61 games 31- 25- 56 points) + Marchand (70 games 28-59-87 points) + Pasta (70 games 48-47-95 points) = Totals ... 201 games 107 goals 131 assists = 238 points
Tampa ... Kucherov (68 games 33-52- 85 points) + Stamkos (57 games 29 -37- 66 points) + Point (66 games 25-39-64 points) = Totals ...... 191 games 87 goals 128 assists = 215 points
vs
Toronto .. Matthews (70 games 47-33-80 points) + Tavares (63 games 26-34-60 points) + Marner (59 games 16-51-67 points) = Totals ....... 192 games 89 goals 118 assists = 207 points

Toronto: STRIKE #2

Standings:
#1 overall ... Boston ... 70 games 44 wins 14 losses 12 OTL = 100 points & 227 GF .. 174 GA = +53 goal differential
#3 overall .. Tampa .... 70 games 43 wins 21 losses 6 OTL = 92 points & 245 GF .. 195 GA = +50 goal differential
vs.
#12 overall .. Toronto .. 70 games 36 wins 25 losses 9 OTL = 81 points & 238 GF .. 227 GA = +11 goal differential

Toronto: STRIKE #3

Not sure how any Leaf fan can look at those facts and honestly believe Leafs are positioned well and in a good position of optimism?

Bang for your Cap $ and the impact on the standings vs cap usage are all connected.

PS. Leafs are paying Nylander more $6.96 mil AAV > than any one of Boston's top 3 and > Point of TB.

...Swell, but completely ignores Cap inflation, and that you are trying to compare contracts signed in 2013 in absolute non-inflated dollars, to contracts signed in 2018 and 2019. As a result, everything you say is null and void.

 

[deletethis]

Yes, they were much worse players when they signed their post-ELC contracts. You are looking at them through the lens of what they are now, and even the perception of what they are now is incredibly inflated due to some of the highest overall linemate quality in the league.

Kucherov signed his current deal with the leverage of unrestricted free agency AFTER a 128 point season. If benchmarked to the Matthews/Marner deals Kucherov should be making $15M AAV. Pastrnak has always been a much better two way player than Marner and especially Matthews. I love our guy Marner but there's no way I think he's a better overall player than Pastrnak.

 

[Fogelhund]

Kucherov signed his current deal with the leverage of unrestricted free agency AFTER a 128 point season. If benchmarked to the Matthews/Marner deals Kucherov should be making $15M AAV. Pastrnak has always been a much better two way player than Marner and especially Matthews. I love our guy Marner but there's no way I think he's a better overall player than Pastrnak.

No, he signed July 2018. His 128 point season was 2018/19.

Nikita Kucherov - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not sure how any Leaf fan can look at those facts and honestly believe Leafs are positioned well and in a good position of optimism?

Because you're excluding important information from those "facts".

Fun fact: Tampa is spending more on their top-6 forwards, top-3 D, and starting goalie next year than the Leafs, and they have both more players to sign, and more important players to sign.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Kucherov signed his current deal with the leverage of unrestricted free agency AFTER a 128 point season.

He did not. He signed before.

Pastrnak has always been a much better two way player than Marner and especially Matthews.

What? No, he hasn't.

 

[deletethis]

Once again, as has already been pointed out to you, this is wrong. Kucherov signed before that season.

True. He had a mere 100 points. A total of points no Leafs player has hit in over 25 years.

 

[deletethis]

He did not. He signed before.

What? No, he hasn't.

That Boston line is both a great offensive line AND Boston's matchup line. That Boston team was a much better team than the Leafs in the past few seasons on the basis of ONE line and 3 support lines.

 

[A1LeafNation]

We won't win anything until we get true leadership, not like the 4 Teletubbies, friend to everyone, type leadership we have right now Marner Matthews Rielly Tavares.



No one on this team wants to be the bad guy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

True. He had a mere 100 points. A total of points no Leafs player has hit in over 25 years.

Marner would have easily hit 100 points that year if he had the same PP TOI (not to mention linemates) that Kucherov got. Marner was the 3rd best ES producer in the league that year, and he has shown over his entire career that he is one of the best PP players in the league.

Not sure why you've switched to comparing completely different contract types now though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That Boston line is both a great offensive line AND Boston's matchup line.

That Boston line is stacked beyond belief, and they have effective defensemen behind them. The impact of individual forwards on defensive results is already wildly overblown around here, but beyond that, Pastrnak is literally the player who has the least impact on those defensive results of any of the players on the ice with him. Fact also still remains that Pastrnak wasn't close to Marner offensively when he signed.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It should also be pointed out that a contract is not bad if it compares slightly unfavorably to the very best contracts at time of signing in the league.

 

[deletethis]

We won't win anything until we get true leadership, not like the 4 Teletubbies, friend to everyone, type leadership we have right now Marner Matthews Rielly Tavares.No one on this team wants to be the bad guy.

100% true. A number of competitive types who don't dance around with big grins when they score departed last summer: Kadri, Brown, Hainsey, even Gardiner and Marleau. There is still Muzzin in the fold.

I thought Tavares was going to be that guy but I think it's obvious that he isn't that type of guy. The hardest of the bunch is Rielly. Way early but Sandin's a more confident harder personality than our star forwards. Kapanen and Johnsson legitimately have competitive streaks. Also I had been perpetually concerned about the team concept buy in of Nylander but now I'm not so sure he's the biggest concern.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

100% true. A number of competitive types who don't dance around with big grins when they score departed last summer: Kadri, Brown, Hainsey, even Gardiner and Marleau. There is still Muzzin in the fold.

I thought Tavares was going to be that guy but I think it's obvious that he isn't that type of guy. The hardest of the bunch is Rielly. Way early but Sandin's a more confident harder personality than our star forwards. Kapanen and Johnsson legitimately have competitive streaks. Also I had been perpetually concerned about the team concept buy in of Nylander but now I'm not so sure he's the biggest concern.

yes, I'd also feel a lot better if our players skated to the bench with their heads down in shame after scoring a goal

 

[PromisedLand]

Saw this on twitter. This has Kyle "Doofus" written all over it

 

[deletethis]

That Boston line is stacked beyond belief, and they have effective defensemen behind them. The impact of individual forwards on defensive results is already wildly overblown around here, but beyond that, Pastrnak is literally the player who has the least impact on those defensive results of any of the players on the ice with him. Fact also still remains that Pastrnak wasn't close to Marner offensively when he signed.

Pastrnak was a better scorer than Marner when he signed and goals always weigh heavier than assists in contract negotiation.

OT: I'd really love to see Keefe try out a stacked line like that one. If the Leafs could find another decent center (or move Nylander to 2nd line center), a line of Matthews on LW, Tavares at C and Marner on RW could be a monster line. If this Nick Robertson kid is on the fast track with Mikheyev and Johnsson hopefully healthy, the team might have the depth of talent otherwise to stack the first line.

 

[deletethis]

yes, I'd also feel a lot better if our players skated to the bench with their heads down in shame after scoring a goal

How about acting like you've been there before?

 

[PromisedLand]

Here is one of those views in terms of feeling worse when it comes to current Leafs situation vs Dubas cap spending and Cup competitiveness.

The road to the Stanley Cup for the Leafs goes through the Atlantic division which means Div rivals Boston and Tampa Bay are the 2 teams that stand in Leafs path to Cup.

Cap usage: (for top 3 players over next 3 seasons for the players statistically).
Boston ... Bergeron + Marchand + Pastrnak .... Total Cap usage = [$6.875 mil + $6.125 mil + $6.66 mil] = $19.67 mil (of $81.5 mil max)
Tampa .... Kucherov + Stamkos + Point ................. Total Cap usage = [$9.50 mil + $8.50 mil + $6.75 mil] = $24.75 mil
vs
Toronto .. Matthews + Tavares + Marner ......... Total Cap usage - [$11.634 mil + $11.0 mil + $10.893 mil] = $33.527 mil

Toronto: STRIKE #1

Production:
Boston ... Bergeron (61 games 31- 25- 56 points) + Marchand (70 games 28-59-87 points) + Pasta (70 games 48-47-95 points) = Totals ... 201 games 107 goals 131 assists = 238 points
Tampa ... Kucherov (68 games 33-52- 85 points) + Stamkos (57 games 29 -37- 66 points) + Point (66 games 25-39-64 points) = Totals ...... 191 games 87 goals 128 assists = 215 points
vs
Toronto .. Matthews (70 games 47-33-80 points) + Tavares (63 games 26-34-60 points) + Marner (59 games 16-51-67 points) = Totals ....... 192 games 89 goals 118 assists = 207 points

Toronto: STRIKE #2

Standings:
#1 overall ... Boston ... 70 games 44 wins 14 losses 12 OTL = 100 points & 227 GF .. 174 GA = +53 goal differential
#3 overall .. Tampa .... 70 games 43 wins 21 losses 6 OTL = 92 points & 245 GF .. 195 GA = +50 goal differential
vs.
#12 overall .. Toronto .. 70 games 36 wins 25 losses 9 OTL = 81 points & 238 GF .. 227 GA = +11 goal differential

Toronto: STRIKE #3

Not sure how any Leaf fan can look at those facts and honestly believe Leafs are positioned well and in a good position of optimism?

Bang for your Cap $ and the impact on the standings vs cap usage are all connected.

PS. Leafs are paying Nylander more $6.96 mil AAV > than any one of Boston's top 3 and > Point of TB.

So much this!!!

You tell 'em Mess. Tell em to wake the F up

 

[Dekes For Days]

Pastrnak was a better scorer than Marner when he signed and goals always weigh heavier than assists in contract negotiation.

Goal production matters, but does not weigh heavier than point production, especially not when those assists are primary assists.

 

[Mess]

Winning a Cup not a CAP thing. It is about icing a team which can beat your rivals. We can beat tampa in a long series. We likely lose to Bruins in a long series. Of course upsets and injuries can factor into it in playoff hockey. Hoping Florida knocks out Bruins. So we can get through atlantic.

Your Cap management effects your player personnel and team composition which impacts your Cup competitiveness.

I see Boston and Tampa primed as top 5 Cup contenders overall and certainly among the best in the East if not #1 and #2.. Having their star players on cap friendly deals and using that spare cap space on supporting cast is why they're +50 and +53 goal differential, and among the better offensive and defensive teams as a result and tough outs .

Leafs are clinging to a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth and may have caught a break by the Pandemic ending the regular season at 70 games.. I'm not sure Leafs would even have been in the playoffs had they played the full season.. I gave them a 50/50 coin flip at beginning of season and that isn't much different with 10-12 games to go. That makes the Leafs pretenders and since I'm old school believing a strong defense can carry a team with a strong offense, where Leafs are so top heavy in offense and weak defensively that they're bottom 5 in goals against.

Bottom 5 goals against ..
27) Toronto ............. 227
28) Florida .............. 228
29) New Jersey ... 230
30) Ottawa ............ 243
31) Detroit .............. 267

Leafs really only saving grace is that they only need to beat out Florida for a playoff spot and Florida and Toronto are equally flawed offense vs defense.

NO team in NHL history has ever won a Stanley cup with a goals against in the bottom 10, in fact teams even struggle as a few exceptions to even make the playoffs annually.. In the past 5 years only 2 teams with a goals against in the bottom 10 even qualified for the playoffs.. Ironically 1 of those 2 teams was our Leafs when they went from worst to playoffs to take on the Washington Caps.

So I see the Leafs as underdogs and so any Leafs success is based on your "upsets can happen" and Toronto needing a hail marry Cinderella season to go through Boston and TB. Truth be told if this year is over and there is no more hockey till next year, I wouldn't really be all that upset as I wouldn't believe this was a missed opportunity at a Cup that was a long-shot at best and needed everything to go right and counting on upsetting strong teams, as I was bracing for disappointment, as a self proclaimed realist.