Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

In hindsight, I think if Drew Doughty was brought in under the same circumstances as Tavares that would have put us on an exponential curve for success. That’s a guy with a true winning pedigree.

Whenever the main boards did their comparisons between Toews and Tavares over the years, I always thought Tavares was credited with more than he had actually achieved. His experience with the Islanders is more or less the same level of playoff success as the Matthews core. It’s like because of his draft pedigree and being on the Island he always had a built in excuse for why those real results were not there. In comparison to Doughty, that’s a better positional fit and a guy with that classic drive to win. And knowledge of how to win.

I don’t think the answer is necessarily another young guy learning on the job like Provorov or Werenski but that would provide better balance.

Except Tavares is a far better player than Doughty. Pedigree doesn't mean much when you're bad at hockey

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think the guy to wait for would have been Seguin. He's matured, rounded out his game and is willing to sacrifice offense for the team to win. He's younger, can skate, defend & win faceoffs and signing him the following off-season reduces the risk of inflating our RFA salaries.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I agree 1 million percent.

Dubas is paying Leafs young stars at UFA rates instead of RFA rates because most of their 2nd contracts are only buying 1 or so years of UFA status away.

When TB a team also primed for Cup contention aspirations watches Dubas give Marner his $11 mil deal and then they a few weeks later bridge Brayden Point a 40 goal 92 point player for 3 years and $6.75 mil AAV and ending up a RFA at completion you have to admire a GM that understands the market of ELC (1st) ---> RFA (2nd) ----> UFA (3rd contract) and creating the best Cup competitive opportunity for his team.

Ditto for Stamkos who goes ELC to 2nd ($7.5 mil) bridge (winning Rocket trophies) to UFA @ $8.5 mil now, or Kucherov from ELC to $4.75 mil bridge, where he puts up 128 points and wins Art Ross, Hart and Lyndsay trophies and then signs for $9.5 mil ..

Our Leafs due to Dubas mishandling of the 3 Amigo's missed the entire 2nd team friendly cost controllable advantage Cup competitive window and when from ELC (promising future Cup chance) ---> UFA (overpaid and long-shots).

This is the #1 reason I'm so disheartened as diehard Leaf fan from the 1960's because we accumulated a young talented core players with a promising future and than essentially tossed that all away because our current 5 year window advantage has been flushed down the drain with cap busting overpaid contracts losing out on those 2nd RFA bridge contracts directly connected to cup competitiveness.

It is not impossible to win but hella lot harder without a top flight defender and goaler. Also finding gems on da cheap every year for next 5 years gonna be like musical chairs. And now COVID19 made things much much more difficult with CAP.

 

[The Podium]

I agree 1 million percent.

Dubas is paying Leafs young stars at UFA rates instead of RFA rates because most of their 2nd contracts are only buying 1 or so years of UFA status away.

When TB a team also primed for Cup contention aspirations watches Dubas give Marner his $11 mil deal and then they a few weeks later bridge Brayden Point a 40 goal 92 point player for 3 years and $6.75 mil AAV and ending up a RFA at completion you have to admire a GM that understands the market of ELC (1st) ---> RFA (2nd) ----> UFA (3rd contract) and creating the best Cup competitive opportunity for his team.

Ditto for Stamkos who goes ELC to 2nd ($7.5 mil) bridge (winning Rocket trophies) to UFA @ $8.5 mil now, or Kucherov from ELC to $4.75 mil bridge, where he puts up 128 points and wins Art Ross, Hart and Lyndsay trophies and then signs for $9.5 mil ..

Our Leafs due to Dubas mishandling of the 3 Amigo's missed the entire 2nd team friendly cost controllable advantage Cup competitive window and when from ELC (promising future Cup chance) ---> UFA (overpaid and long-shots).

This is the #1 reason I'm so disheartened as diehard Leaf fan from the 1960's because we accumulated a young talented core players with a promising future and than essentially tossed that all away because our current 5 year window advantage has been flushed down the drain with cap busting overpaid contracts losing out on those 2nd RFA bridge contracts directly connected to cup competitiveness.

Pittsburgh with Crosby and Malkin and Chicago with Toews and Kane all skipped that 2nd RFA deal and won cups...

Also why is Stamkos' 5 year 2nd RFA deal at 11.7% of the cap taking him to UFA considered a bridge but Matthews 5 year 2nd RFA deal is not?

The only legitimate examples you gave so far are Point and Kucherov and together they successfully carried Tampa to the biggest disappointment in league history.

 

[Stephen]

Except Tavares is a far better player than Doughty. Pedigree doesn't mean much when you're bad at hockey

On what planet is Tavares a better player than Doughty? Doughty has been consistently in the conversation as a top 10 player in the game since the 2010 Olympics. Fallen off with the declining Los Angeles Kings the past couple of years but on a contender? Not even close.

 

[Menzinger]

On what planet is Tavares a better player than Doughty? Doughty has been consistently in the conversation as a top 10 player in the game since the 2010 Olympics. Fallen off with the declining Los Angeles Kings the past couple of years but on a contender? Not even close.

Doughty may have an edge at his peak, but hes passed that now.

Imo JT seems like he will have the edge moving forward. Especially since Doughty doesn't strike me as a fitness freak

 

[Menzinger]

I don't think Marleau was brought in with that in mind. Even the Team would have realized they weren't ready for a cup run, nor would they be within 3 years. It appears they were right about that. Where the Team was wrong is in how quickly the young players would develop and together with Tavares would eat up the cap. Marleau was to be long gone before it got to that.
My understanding he was brought to mentor and teach them how to be pros. With how they appear to be turning out one could believe his mentor ship was a success but obviously no real way to prove that.

He may have given them a few tips on how to handle contract negotiations

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

On what planet is Tavares a better player than Doughty? Doughty has been consistently in the conversation as a top 10 player in the game since the 2010 Olympics. Fallen off with the declining Los Angeles Kings the past couple of years but on a contender? Not even close.

on earth. Unfortunately Doughty wouldn't come with a time machine, so him being better a decade ago doesn't count for much

 

[Dekes For Days]

It all comes down to Dubas skipping their RFA earnings and going straight to UFA salaries.

Dubas did not skip RFA salaries. His contracts line up very well with pretty much all other post-ELC contracts of similar caliber.

 

[Dekes For Days]

On what planet is Tavares a better player than Doughty?

Earth.

 

[rent free]

I think the guy to wait for would have been Seguin. He's matured, rounded out his game and is willing to sacrifice offense for the team to win. He's younger, can skate, defend & win faceoffs and signing him the following off-season reduces the risk of inflating our RFA salaries.

do you think he'd even sign with the leafs?

 

[rent free]

Dubas did not skip RFA salaries. His contracts line up very well with pretty much all other post-ELC contracts of similar caliber.

......uh nope. all the contracts given by dubas to the big 3 were overpays compared to their relatable's. especially with those terms. yikes

 

[Mickey Marner]

do you think he'd even sign with the leafs?

Absolutely, he's definitely a Toronto man. At the time I would've preferred Tavares, but in retrospect Seguin was the guy to target. And it would make trading his pick to Boston come full circle. He would be the prodigal returned.

 

[Garthinater]

Well let's see.

We went from dead last to a franchise record in points in 3 years under lou and babs.

Within 2 years of dubas we can barely make the playoffs and allowed the 5th most goals against. All while having next to zero cap space.

How can anyone feel optimistic with dubas in charge? The results are right in front of you.

It astounds me how many posters blindly follow the gm. Happened with burke and happening again with dubas. Wouldn't surprise me if most are the same posters. You'd think they'd learn but apparently not.

 

[deletethis]

Dubas did not skip RFA salaries. His contracts line up very well with pretty much all other post-ELC contracts of similar caliber.

cough... Brayden Point ... Patrik Laine ... Jake Guentzel ... Nikita Kucherov ... Dylan Larkin ... David Pastrnak

All better fractions of the cap at the time of the signings than comparable young Leafs' contracts under Dubas.

 

[The Podium]

cough... Brayden Point ... Patrik Laine ... Jake Guentzel ... Nikita Kucherov ... Dylan Larkin ... David Pastrnak

All better fractions of the cap at the time of the signings than comparable young Leafs' contracts under Dubas.

......uh nope. all the contracts given by dubas to the big 3 were overpays compared to their relatable's. especially with those terms. yikes

Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Getzlad, Perry, Toews, Kane, Stamkos, Seguin, Ekblad, McDavid, Draisaitl

Contrary to popular belief, historically star players have always been signed to big money 2nd deals, most with 5/6 year term taking them straight into UFA.

There are some like Tavares, Mackinnon, Pastrnak, Larkin, Nylander who have fortunately signed that second deal before they broke out, except Tavares who signed cheap in good faith.

 

[ACC1224]

Well let's see.

We went from dead last to a franchise record in points in 3 years under lou and babs.

Within 2 years of dubas we can barely make the playoffs and allowed the 5th most goals against. All while having next to zero cap space.

How can anyone feel optimistic with dubas in charge? The results are right in front of you.

It astounds me how many posters blindly follow the gm. Happened with burke and happening again with dubas. Wouldn't surprise me if most are the same posters. You'd think they'd learn but apparently not.

I've never been overly confident that he was the right choice but I'm willing to give him a longer look. It's still too early to make any change and with two or three good moves this team looks a lot better. Now if he blows those moves, the set back will be tough to overcome.

What I don't get is if people need to work so hard to defend the moves he's made to date perhaps they deserve to be criticized to an extent. If everything is so great there wouldn't be these constant discussions.

 

[The Podium]

Well let's see.

We went from dead last to a franchise record in points in 3 years under lou and babs.

Within 2 years of dubas we can barely make the playoffs and allowed the 5th most goals against. All while having next to zero cap space.

How can anyone feel optimistic with dubas in charge? The results are right in front of you.

It astounds me how many posters blindly follow the gm. Happened with burke and happening again with dubas. Wouldn't surprise me if most are the same posters. You'd think they'd learn but apparently not.

That 105 season was off the back 42 ROW, 16 points decided by the shootout and unsustainable goaltending by a career journeyman.

In 2018-2019 the team had a 46 ROW and only 2 points decided by the shootout. Thats a 14 point swing on a skills competition.

In 2019-2020 the team had 35 ROW in 70 games, pacing 41 ROW and 6 points decided by shootout. Thats again, a 10 point swing on the skills competition, but this time the team had leagues worst backup goaltending, the most man games lost to injury relative to the 2 prior years where they had unsustainably healthy teams and a midseason coaching change.

If anything the first year under Dubas has been the best team of this iteration of the Leafs and the luck ran out more than the team "declining"

 

[Dekes For Days]

cough... Brayden Point ... Patrik Laine ... Jake Guentzel ... Nikita Kucherov ... Dylan Larkin ... David Pastrnak

All better fractions of the cap at the time of the signings than comparable young Leafs' contracts under Dubas.

Because all those players were worse players than Matthews/Marner at time of signing, some significantly. They were not comparable players.

 

[The Podium]

Because all those players were worse players than Matthews/Marner at time of signing, some significantly. They were not comparable players.

It is wild how people struggle to dissociate the player before and after the signing.

 

[ottomaddox]

That 105 season was off the back 42 ROW, 16 points decided by the shootout and unsustainable goaltending by a career journeyman.

In 2018-2019 the team had a 46 ROW and only 2 points decided by the shootout. Thats a 14 point swing on a skills competition.

In 2019-2020 the team had 35 ROW in 70 games, pacing 41 ROW and 6 points decided by shootout. Thats again, a 10 point swing on the skills competition, but this time the team had leagues worst backup goaltending, the most man games lost to injury relative to the 2 prior years where they had unsustainably healthy teams and a midseason coaching change.

If anything the first year under Dubas has been the best team of this iteration of the Leafs and the luck ran out more than the team "declining"

I don't care for your "unsustainable" argument at all. Players overachieve, have all-star seasons, etc. Goalies can also overachieve (just look at Vesa Toskala's career). Goalies get hot, and sometimes very average back-ups get hot. That doesn't change anything. "Unsustainable" to mean always means that "by some miracle analytics didn't provide all the answers". Guess what? They usually don't.

 

[The Podium]

I don't care for your "unsustainable" argument at all. Players overachieve, have all-star seasons, etc. Goalies can also overachieve (just look at Vesa Toskala's career). Goalies get hot, and sometimes very average back-ups get hot. That doesn't change anything. "Unsustainable" to mean always means that "by some miracle analytics didn't provide all the answers". Guess what? They usually don't.

Youre right, any goalie can get hot at any time. Unsustainable doesnt mean it cant happen, or even cant happen regularly, it means you cant have faith on it happening consistently.

Regardless, that was a very minor point in the post.

 

[rent free]

Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Getzlad, Perry, Toews, Kane, Stamkos, Seguin, Ekblad, McDavid, Draisaitl

Contrary to popular belief, historically star players have always been signed to big money 2nd deals, most with 5/6 year term taking them straight into UFA.

There are some like Tavares, Mackinnon, Pastrnak, Larkin, Nylander who have fortunately signed that second deal before they broke out, except Tavares who signed cheap in good faith.

in the current age of young talent, where franchise-type, high-end guys like mcdavid and eichel, and even drasaitl and ekblad signed for 8 years, matthews only signing for 5 years was not the norm.

pastrnak, larkin and tavares signed their deals when they broke out (and when they were rfa's).

other than ovi, ekblad mcdavid and draisaitl, (who all signed for more than 5 seasons) the players you mentioned didn't sign "big money" 2nd deals; they signed for a number (per year) that they were actually worth at the time of their signing. matthews was not worth 11.634 when he signed his contract last year. that's part of why his contract is a joke


it's pretty eye-popping that matthews, who had similar numbers to eichel, signed for a higher cap hit per year and shorter years than eichel, despite toronto having the supposed financial luxuries they do

 

[Dekes For Days]

It is wild how people struggle to dissociate the player before and after the signing.

Yes, this is a major issue. This is often most apparent in the case of Eichel, who was significantly worse when signing. Though the bigger issue is people ignoring the impact of PP TOI, a team stat, on production. There is a very good case to be made that Matthews and Marner are both still better than all of those players. The only ones that create pause are Kucherov and Pastrnak, though they may very well be the two forwards with the best overall linemate quality (ES+PP) in the entire league (aside from maybe their linemates), so it really depends on how you view the impact of that on production.

 

[The Podium]

in the current age of young talent, where franchise-type, high-end guys like mcdavid and eichel, and even drasaitl and ekblad signed for 8 years, matthews only signing for 5 years was not the norm.

pastrnak, larkin and tavares signed their deals when they broke out (and when they were rfa's).

other than ovi, ekblad mcdavid and draisaitl, (who all signed for more than 5 seasons) the players you mentioned didn't sign "big money" 2nd deals; they signed for a number (per year) that they were actually worth at the time of their signing. matthews was not worth 11.634 when he signed his contract last year. that's part of why his contract is a joke


it's pretty eye-popping that matthews, who had similar numbers to eichel, signed for a higher cap hit per year and shorter years than eichel, despite toronto having the supposed financial luxuries they do

For respect for my time for mid season signings, like Matthews, Im going to use the numbers up to the end of that season.

Matthews signed his deal after 111 goals in 212 games played, had 1 40 goal season, 2 P/GP+ seasons and 205 points in 212 games played (0.97 p/GP)

Marner signed his deal after a 94 point season, had 3 years of 1st line production and had 224 points in 241 games (0.87 P/GP)

Nylander signed his deal after 2 60 point seasons, had 2 years of 1st line production and 135 points in 185 games (0.73 P/GP)

Pastrnak signed his after a 70 point 30 goal season after 2 years of 0.5 P/GP. Thats a good season, but not his current P/GP+ 40+ goals. He had a career 123 points in 172 games (0.72 P/GP)

Larkin signed after a 60 point season, following a 32 point and 45 point season. However he had already established himself as a great defensive player and on a team barren of any talent. He had 140 points in 242 games (0.58).

Tavares signed after his second year, having a one season of 1st line production as well as a 54 point season. He signed with 121 points in 161 games (0.75 P/GP)

Matthews and Marner were by far the most established at the time of their signing. By far....

You also talk about cap number and not cap%. Yes, Matthews signed at 11.63 but at the time of the signing that is 14.63% of the cap, Eichel signed for 10 mill which was 13.33% of the cap.

Now compare Matthews above to Eichel at the time of the signing:

Eichel, one 56 point season and one 57 point season (61 games played). Had no P/GP seasons, no 30 goal seasons and 113 points in 142 games played (0.79 P/GP).

Considering context of when they signed is Matthews not worth 1.3% of cap more?