Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[rent free]

i've given the dubes a hard time but i'll say this: i'm actually really excited for next season. the leafs have improved significantly defensively under keefe and andersen will probably be back to his normal self. it looks like we finally have a proper backup too. i'm curious as to what the gaa for our club will be next season

 

[Stephen]

Absolutely, he's definitely a Toronto man. At the time I would've preferred Tavares, but in retrospect Seguin was the guy to target. And it would make trading his pick to Boston come full circle. He would be the prodigal returned.

I actually think Seguin will be here in a Spezza, Nieuwendyk type capacity one day. And coincidentally enough both were ex-Dallas Stars.

 

[Stephen]

on earth. Unfortunately Doughty wouldn't come with a time machine, so him being better a decade ago doesn't count for much

Remains to be seen what Tavares’ major malfunction was this year. Hopefully he comes back better adjusted to being a parent and whatever because the guy we saw for long stretches this year couldn’t skate, couldn’t separate or create or handle a damn puck. And he really doesn’t come with any winning pedigree either. He was a big ticket and a homecoming narrative and that is great but also in a cap era I’m just choosing to keep a healthy skepticism of him. Of the Big 4, he would easily be the first to go.

 

[The Podium]

Remains to be seen what Tavares’ major malfunction was this year. Hopefully he comes back better adjusted to being a parent and whatever because the guy we saw for long stretches this year couldn’t skate, couldn’t separate or create or handle a damn puck. And he really doesn’t come with any winning pedigree either. He was a big ticket and a homecoming narrative and that is great but also in a cap era I’m just choosing to keep a healthy skepticism of him. Of the Big 4, he would easily be the first to go.

I think more players were playing through injuries than they let on. Rielly and Marner at the very minimum, wouldnt surprised me if Tavares was as well.

Before burning down the core like some are suggesting, I want them all back for a season to see.

 

[Stephen]

I think more players were playing through injuries than they let on. Rielly and Marner at the very minimum, wouldnt surprised me if Tavares was as well.

Before burning down the core like some are suggesting, I want them all back for a season to see.

That’s probably what will happen anyway but on a message board where speculation is supposed to run rampant I’d say Tavares has really raised some question marks this past season.

 

[ottomaddox]

I always saw Tavares and his game as underwhelming despite his point production. He didn't ever seem to have an explosive contribution. That being said his numbers are still good (yes I know they are not great). I sort of feel that people expect 47 goals a season, and that's not a realistic expectation. 60 points in 63 games? Is he really so bad?

 

[rent free]

Remains to be seen what Tavares’ major malfunction was this year. Hopefully he comes back better adjusted to being a parent and whatever because the guy we saw for long stretches this year couldn’t skate, couldn’t separate or create or handle a damn puck. And he really doesn’t come with any winning pedigree either. He was a big ticket and a homecoming narrative and that is great but also in a cap era I’m just choosing to keep a healthy skepticism of him. Of the Big 4, he would easily be the first to go.

of the big 4, he'd be very clearly the last to go, because of his nmc.

 

[Hogan86]

Much less.

I didnt hate the fact that Matthews signed a 5 year deal. I'm not a fan of those 7 and 8 year contracts. I hated the fact he signed a 5 year deal and got 11.6 mill a year. On an 8 year deal, he is essentially seeking McDavid money. And then Marner signs for a hair under 11 on a 6 year deal. Way too much money. With 3 players in the top 7 cap hits in the whole league, we are in deep cap trouble. And we still havent won a playoff series in 16 years.

The whole plan of giving those guys such fat contracts was the idea and hope that the new expansion would spike the salary cap closer to 90 mil a season. And that was before the pandemic. COVID profit losses will stagnate the cap for probably 2, maybe even 3 seasons. That is going to decimate our depth.

We still need some key pieces. Goaltending is a bit of a question mark, especially with what to do with Freddy. Hes a UFA after next season. Do we re-up, or let him go/trade him? Rielly will be looking for a raise in 2022. We need a better 3C than Kerfoot. Our PK needs a shake up. I feel like we are really talented 'good' team, but nowhere near a 'great' team that could actually contend for the cup. With our current roster, the 2nd round would probably be about as far as I see them going. Which sucks, because a couple years ago the future looked so bright.

 

[Stephen]

of the big 4, he'd be very clearly the last to go, because of his nmc.

Nah, I would work him before moving any of the other three.

 

[Morbo]

Tavares is definitely better than Doughty is right now. Drew has slipped a fair bit from his peak years.

 

[nuck]

A little less optimistic I guess because after a breakout year you are hoping for steady improvement which hasn't happened. The club hasn't really gone anywhere except to cap hell and still tinkering trying to fill weaknesses in the lineup. But this playoff will be a crap shoot because of the layoff and next fall their window is still wide open so things are still wide open so he can still look like a star. His time is getting shorter for them to take that next step though.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Much less.

I didnt hate the fact that Matthews signed a 5 year deal. I'm not a fan of those 7 and 8 year contracts. I hated the fact he signed a 5 year deal and got 11.6 mill a year. On an 8 year deal, he is essentially seeking McDavid money. And then Marner signs for a hair under 11 on a 6 year deal. Way too much money. With 3 players in the top 7 cap hits in the whole league, we are in deep cap trouble. And we still havent won a playoff series in 16 years.

The whole plan of giving those guys such fat contracts was the idea and hope that the new expansion would spike the salary cap closer to 90 mil a season. And that was before the pandemic. COVID profit losses will stagnate the cap for probably 2, maybe even 3 seasons. That is going to decimate our depth.

We still need some key pieces. Goaltending is a bit of a question mark, especially with what to do with Freddy. Hes a UFA after next season. Do we re-up, or let him go/trade him? Rielly will be looking for a raise in 2022. We need a better 3C than Kerfoot. Our PK needs a shake up. I feel like we are really talented 'good' team, but nowhere near a 'great' team that could actually contend for the cup. With our current roster, the 2nd round would probably be about as far as I see them going. Which sucks, because a couple years ago the future looked so bright.

If we did not have COVID then when Rielly was up Bettman negotiates da great US TV cable deal and bingo bango CAP at 100M + and we have no issues. Now we have a couple years of flat CAP to get back to where we were. But if everything comes back then we should still be ok for Rielly re-up. Where it hurts is getting a couple solid vet defenders at 5-7M per for next 2 seasons. Now we can't get those guys. Freddy will resign at 5M for another couple years. But we may not want him back if we can't get past da 1st round next 2 seasons.

 

[Joey Hoser]

The club hasn't really gone anywhere except to cap hell

They aren't in cap hell. Cap hell is having a bunch of immovable guys making way more money than they are worth that handcuff your ability to do anything to help yourself.

Everyone on the Leafs is more or less worth their contract and movable(except I guess Ceci if he still counts). They're entirely flexible.

 

[Fogelhund]

Babcock is gone, so I feel more optimistic. He was just too stubborn to get the job done.

This years team had too many injuries, and apparent injuries, a poor Backup goalie situation (that has been addressed), and a down year for Andersen. You aren't going to do well, when your backup is terrible, your starter gets injured, and much of your defense core gets injured too. No Ceci, Rielly or Muzzin at one point... who are we kidding.

Dubas has attempted to address our issues... toughness with Clifford... D with Muzzin, Barrie, Ceci, Lehtonen... no, they aren't all going to work out... and depth in Russian Free Agents. We have new challenges, with a flat cap, which will restrict us. Let's see how he manages this one.

I think we are mostly heading in the right direction, but ask again, when I see next years opening roster. (We need changes)

 

[rent free]

Nah, I would work him before moving any of the other three.

it's a two way street though. you may want him gone first (as do i), but he's got movement protection unlike the 3 younger stars on this club

 

[Stephen]

it's a two way street though. you may want him gone first (as do i), but he's got movement protection unlike the 3 younger stars on this club

You’re not wrong, and if it ever came to a divorce it would be very messy but preferable to dumping a young improving elite asset (let’s say Nylander) and carrying the albatross. If we had to get rid of Tavares at some point in time it would be a power move akin to dumping Marleau. But probably harder.

 

[Menzinger]

cough... Brayden Point ... Patrik Laine ... Jake Guentzel ... Nikita Kucherov ... Dylan Larkin ... David Pastrnak

All better fractions of the cap at the time of the signings than comparable young Leafs' contracts under Dubas.

Guys like Laine and Point actually signed pretty expensive bridge deals in historical comparison.

The Leafs guys will still be under contract when theyre up for renewal

 

[Menzinger]

You’re not wrong, and if it ever came to a divorce it would be very messy but preferable to dumping a young improving elite asset (let’s say Nylander) and carrying the albatross. If we had to get rid of Tavares at some point in time it would be a power move akin to dumping Marleau. But probably harder.

I think this line of thinking is a bit premature. The guy just had one of thr best seasons that a Leafs centre has had in decades, and even if one thinks he had an off season, he was still just a couple points under ppg

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Lots of B.S in this thread i see. Kind of glad them advertisements that keep covering the Damn page drove me away ha

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think more players were playing through injuries than they let on. Rielly and Marner at the very minimum, wouldnt surprised me if Tavares was as well.

Matthews also played through an injured wrist. And not part of our core, but Kerfoot was much worse while he was playing through facial fractures and had his full facemask.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What I don't get is if people need to work so hard to defend the moves he's made to date perhaps they deserve to be criticized to an extent. If everything is so great there wouldn't be these constant discussions.

That's not really true. Lots of people love to complain about anything, even when there's no reason to, and especially about the Leafs. Conventional hockey wisdom and hockey media is also, majority of the time, wildly wrong, so people get easily misled.

 

[Menzinger]

I've never been overly confident that he was the right choice but I'm willing to give him a longer look. It's still too early to make any change and with two or three good moves this team looks a lot better. Now if he blows those moves, the set back will be tough to overcome.

What I don't get is if people need to work so hard to defend the moves he's made to date perhaps they deserve to be criticized to an extent. If everything is so great there wouldn't be these constant discussions.

Well like with anything in sports there are fundamental disagreements about anything. If we all just agreed thered be no need for messageboards.

Lots of folks on here have very different views of the game, especially when it comes to management level decisions.

 

[Jackothy]

I feel like we have a Stanley Cup calibre top 6 and I feel like we have all the pieces to assemble a Stanley Cup calibre bottom 6. On D, we're just missing one top-level defenseman to play with Reilly, but we definitely have all the pieces to fill out the bottom 4 and I honestly belive that we have the pieces to acquire that elusive partner for the top pair. Dubas definitely deserves a hell of a lot of credit for that. My worry, though, is that we're massively lacking in grit, heart, and determination and Kyle's philsophy would rather see the bottom 6 filled with Malgin's, Spezza's, and Johnssons where I would moreso agree with Burke in that it should be guys who wear their hearts on their sleeve. The Kadri trade still hurts, he was the only one on this team who would fight back when the going got tough. Before the bullshit with Debrusk because the refs stopped calling the game, everyone forgets that Kadri put the team on his shoulders and was forcing life into the leafs when everyone else gave up - hightlighted by a momentum shifting goal that was neutered after he stuck up for Marleau because nobody else on the team was fighting back against Boston's crap...

Anyways, I don't feel like Dubas appreciates or even understands the immeasurable variables of grit, character, and heart, and I don't think this team can take the next step until we aquire it. The Clifford trade gives me a bit of hope, but I think the bottom 6 needs a complete revamping...maybe keep Kapanen. We have more than enough skill in the top 6, the bottom 6 should be skilled but mean - I think Sam Bennett would be a perfect target for this role, and players of his ilk. But yeah, so far I'm not super optimistic that Dubas sees it this way, but he's a smart dude and I think these issues became very apparent this year.

 

[Mess]

Guys like Laine and Point actually signed pretty expensive bridge deals in historical comparison.

The Leafs guys will still be under contract when they're up for renewal

People say this all the time like this is a good thing without actually applying the math to this ..

Marner and Point are very good comparable except for contracts.

2018-19 Stats
==========
11th overall - Mitch Marner, RW - TOR .. 82 games 26 goals 68 assists 94 points 22 +/- & 22 pims [1.15 ppg]
12th overall - Brayden Point, C -TB .......... 79 games 41 goals 51 assists 92 points 27 +/- & 28 pims [1.16 ppg]

Marner
LENGTH: 6 YEARS - EXPIRY STATUS: UFA
VALUE: $65,358,000 - C.H.% : 13.37 ... AAV $10.893 mil
SIGNING DATE: September 13, 2019
vs
Point
LENGTH: 3 YEARS - EXPIRY STATUS: RFA
VALUE: $20,250,000 - C.H.% : 8.28 ... AAV $6.75 mil
SIGNING DATE: September 23, 2019

Point has a C.H. % of 8.28% vs Marner of 13.37 % with CBA max limit of 16% per individual, with Point still an RFA at completion vs UFA for Marner.

Renewal math ..

Tampa Bay is saving [$65,358,000 - $20,250,000] = +$45,108,000 cap space over the next 3 years or $4.143 mil AAV/season

Over the next 6 years to make these contracts equal on cap usage over the same time period.

Marner ... $10.893 mil + $10.896 mil + $10.893 mil (over next 3 years) + $10,893 mil +$10.893 mil + $10.896 mil = $65,358,000 total cap space / 6 years.
Point ...... $6.75 mil + $6.75 mil + $6.75 mil (& resigned as RFA) ............. + $15,036 mil + $15,036 mil +$15,036 mil = $65,358,000 total cap space / 6 years.

Brayden Point's next contract in 3 years time when renewed would need to be more than > $15.036 mil AAV to exceed Marner's over the next 6 years, while saving +$4.143 mil extra cap space over the next 3 seasons.

Personally I'd be surprised in Point's next deal is > Marner's current deal NOW and would be less than < $10.896 mil. Reason Kucherov his teammate put up 128 points lead the league in scoring and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies and re-signed for 8 years @ $9.5 mil per. If Marner and Point for the next 3 years are statistically equal then TB is using > $4 mil less cap space for similar production.

So it would be interesting to see where you think Leafs are in a better position cap wise with Marner now or in the future when Point is renewed after 3 years?

 

[ACC1224]

Well like with anything in sports there are fundamental disagreements about anything. If we all just agreed thered be no need for messageboards.

Lots of folks on here have very different views of the game, especially when it comes to management level decisions.

Of course people can have different views, that goes without saying.
It's the ones that defend to death everything that is puzzling. It's like Dubas is the ghost of Sam Pollock to some.

A little honesty would go a long way and at least give those differing views a little credibility.