Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[Dekes For Days]

Having their star players on cap friendly deals and using that spare cap space on supporting cast is why they're +50 and +53 goal differential

Actually, this is largely due to goaltending, which is also the main reason Toronto was so bad in GA this season.

The actual teams in front, representing the majority of the cap space and players, are much more even.

NO team in NHL history has ever won a Stanley cup with a goals against in the bottom 10

You mean teams don't win cups with garbage goaltending?

Wow, A+ analysis there Mess. /s

 

[deletethis]

Goal production matters, but does not weigh heavier than point production, especially not when those assists are primary assists.

How many assists are secondary assists vs. how many goals are secondary goals (I guess we could count empty net goals, fluke deflections as secondary goals)? Clearly the secondary assists are way higher. I'm sure someone has worked this out statistically. There were 167% (480) assists to goals (286) awarded to Toronto Maple Leafs players last season. Goals are rarer commodities (37% of the total points awarded to Leafs last season) for the average individual player and hence should be much more valuable at contract time.

 

[deletethis]

You mean teams don't win cups with garbage goaltending?

Poor team defense is merely the result of "garbage" goaltending? Don Cherry, is that you?

 

[Dekes For Days]

How many assists are secondary assists vs. how many goals are secondary goals

Um... what? Secondary goals don't exist.

For example there were 167% (480) assists to goals (286) awarded to Toronto Maple Leafs players last season.

Not really sure what you're trying to do, or why, but there were 237 goals this season, and 219 primary assists.

Contracts aren't based on goals by as much as you think. It is a factor, but a factor that skews contracts based primarily in point production.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Poor team defense is merely the result of "garbage" goaltending? Don Cherry, is that you?

the guy who just said the problem with our team is they celebrate too enthusiastically is calling someone else Don Cherry to put them down? That's weird

 

[Dekes For Days]

Poor team defense is merely the result of "garbage" goaltending? Don Cherry, is that you?

Individual goaltender performances have significantly bigger impacts on GA results than team defense.

Toronto had middle-of-the-pack defense this season anyway, and teams have won the cup with poor team defense. They haven't won with bad goaltending, because goaltending is such a massive factor in the success of a team.

 

[Mess]

...Swell, but completely ignores Cap inflation, and that you are trying to compare contracts signed in 2013 in absolute non-inflated dollars, to contracts signed in 2018 and 2019. As a result, everything you say is null and void.

Respectfully so what, except for everything you said might help explain contracts $$, it doesn't matter when you look at teams and Cup competitiveness.

There is no playoff handicap system that adjust for timing of when player contracts are signed, so that doesn't matter other than having cap friendly deals when its the same salary cap ceiling for everyone creates advantages for the earlier contracts.

The fact Crosby carries a $ $8,700,000 and Malkin a $9,500,000 cap and will be for the next 3 years, while Matthews $11.634 mil Tavares $11.0 mil and Marner $10.893 (because of signing) is still a huge competitive advantage for the Pens star players when everyone builds teams built on $81.5 mil max spending and viewing Cup Windows.

Just because Sid has a cap hit of >$2 mil less than any Leaf player above, that doesn't mean Pens don't gain a competitive advantage as a result, just because you can explain why his cap hit is so much less than Leafs.

Boston star top line carries a $19.6 mil cap hit vs Leafs top 3 of over $33.5 mil .. What that means is the free cap space difference created is being used by Boston towards the rest of their supporting cast.. Its a main reason why Boston has 100 points and Leafs have 81 points and are a much stronger competitive team.

 

[deletethis]

Um... what? Secondary goals don't exist.

No reason to act obtuse. You know what I was explicitly referring to. Is this what qualifies as deking for days? Pretty weak.

Not really sure what you're trying to do, or why, but there were 237 goals this season, and 219 primary assists.

Last season, you know as in the season before this season: 2018-19.

And nice goal post moving: I'm referring to assists, you quote primary assists. BTW, goals still outweigh primary assists.

Contracts aren't based on goals by as much as you think.

I have zero reason to accept your claim to authority.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No reason to act obtuse. You know what I was explicitly referring to.

Actually I have no idea what point you're trying to make.

Last season, you know as in the season before this season: 2018-19.

Why does the season matter?

And nice goal post moving: I'm referring to assists, you quote primary assists.

I mentioned primary assists at the very beginning. When you were trying to use Pastrnak's slightly better goal production to suggest that he was better than Marner at time of signing, which he wasn't at all.

BTW, goals still outweigh primary assists.

By the (incorrect) logic you were using, that would make them less valuable...

 

[deletethis]

Actually I have no idea what point you're trying to make.

Why does the season matter?

I mentioned primary assists at the very beginning. When you were trying to use Pastrnak's slightly better goal production to suggest that he was better than Marner at time of signing, which he wasn't at all.

By the logic you were using, that would make them less valuable.

You're not honest actor.

 

[deletethis]

Goals are more valuable than assists including primary assists. /story

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're not honest actor.

So no answer then.

Goals are more valuable than assists including primary assists. /story

Yes they are. That doesn't mean you just look at goals to come to contracts. As I said, they are a factor that skews contracts based primarily in point production. As I've also said, comparing to some of the best contracts in the league at time of signing doesn't make the contract bad.

 

[deletethis]

Those Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares contracts are always going to put enormous pressures on other areas of the lineup. The individual contracts are arguably too much and so is the number of those contracts. There's clearly 1 too many $11M player for proper lineup balance.

Every off season the Leafs' GM will have to scramble to find inexpensive solutions for the defense and goaltending. The price for these less than ideal inexpensive solutions will involve futures.
Every off season player(s) still under control (pre-unrestricted free agency) are at risk to having to be dealt to alleviate cap crunches.

 

[Dekes For Days]

it doesn't matter when you look at teams and Cup competitiveness.

Over the next season or two? Maybe not, though age is certainly a significant factor there that could easily change things, as Leaf players enter their primes and also get more equal TOI and linemate quality, and Boston/Tampa players exit theirs.

But this contract situation is also true for every team when they sign new contracts; other teams that signed contracts long ago have relative competitive advantages in that area. You act like this is only true for the Leafs, or that it's a sign of them doing something wrong. It's not.

Once again btw, Tampa is spending more than us next year on their top-6 F, top-3 D, and starting goalie.

 

[PromisedLand]

Respectfully so what, except for everything you said might help explain contracts $$, it doesn't matter when you look at teams and Cup competitiveness.

There is no playoff handicap system that adjust for timing of when player contracts are signed, so that doesn't matter other than having cap friendly deals when its the same salary cap ceiling for everyone creates advantages for the earlier contracts.

The fact Crosby carries a $ $8,700,000 and Malkin a $9,500,000 cap and will be for the next 3 years, while Matthews $11.634 mil Tavares $11.0 mil and Marner $10.893 (because of signing) is still a huge competitive advantage for the Pens star players when everyone builds teams built on $81.5 mil max spending and viewing Cup Windows.

Just because Sid has a cap hit of >$2 mil less than any Leaf player above, that doesn't mean Pens don't gain a competitive advantage as a result, just because you can explain why his cap hit is so much less than Leafs.

Boston star top line carries a $19.6 mil cap hit vs Leafs top 3 of over $33.5 mil .. What that means is the free cap space difference created is being used by Boston towards the rest of their supporting cast.. Its a main reason why Boston has 100 points and Leafs have 81 points and are a much stronger competitive team.

Yup!!!! Precisely correct!!!

Dubas fans are so hell bent on absolving Dubas' lack of foresight that they forget that competitive advantage within the Atlantic division and eastern conference is very important.

Kyle Doofus is ruined it for the Leafs there is no mistaking it.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Your Cap management effects your player personnel and team composition which impacts your Cup competitiveness.

I see Boston and Tampa primed as top 5 Cup contenders overall and certainly among the best in the East if not #1 and #2.. Having their star players on cap friendly deals and using that spare cap space on supporting cast is why they're +50 and +53 goal differential, and among the better offensive and defensive teams as a result and tough outs .

Leafs are clinging to a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth and may have caught a break by the Pandemic ending the regular season at 70 games.. I'm not sure Leafs would even have been in the playoffs had they played the full season.. I gave them a 50/50 coin flip at beginning of season and that isn't much different with 10-12 games to go. That makes the Leafs pretenders and since I'm old school believing a strong defense can carry a team with a strong offense, where Leafs are so top heavy in offense and weak defensively that they're bottom 5 in goals against.

Bottom 5 goals against ..
27) Toronto ............. 227
28) Florida .............. 228
29) New Jersey ... 230
30) Ottawa ............ 243
31) Detroit .............. 267

Leafs really only saving grace is that they only need to beat out Florida for a playoff spot and Florida and Toronto are equally flawed offense vs defense.

NO team in NHL history has ever won a Stanley cup with a goals against in the bottom 10, in fact teams even struggle as a few exceptions to even make the playoffs annually.. In the past 5 years only 2 teams with a goals against in the bottom 10 even qualified for the playoffs.. Ironically 1 of those 2 teams was our Leafs when they went from worst to playoffs to take on the Washington Caps.

So I see the Leafs as underdogs and so any Leafs success is based on your "upsets can happen" and Toronto needing a hail marry Cinderella season to go through Boston and TB. Truth be told if this year is over and there is no more hockey till next year, I wouldn't really be all that upset as I wouldn't believe this was a missed opportunity at a Cup that was a long-shot at best and needed everything to go right and counting on upsetting strong teams, as I was bracing for disappointment, as a self proclaimed realist.

I don't see this team as a Cup winner either. But we can go straight up on offense with Tampa and beat them. They have a young talented athletic goalie but he is still green and he has far too many Bernier moments.
Boston has a complete team and if we have to play them in round 2 we will be out. They have better tending, much better defense and their top line is flat out better than ours. Plus they have 2 guys who can beat us up. We only have a advantage on line 2 and I doubt Matty can carry team to 4 wins on his own. It is not impossible but he would have to go nuts in 4 individual games and carry team on his back.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There's clearly 1 too many $11M player for proper lineup balance.

This is not clear at all. Since our players started getting their big contracts, the Leafs have improved in every way except goaltending, and goaltending personnel hasn't changed all that much.

 

[deletethis]

As I stated earlier, there could always be the possibility that the Leafs got their hands on the best/hottest goalie in the league one playoff year. They just might pull off a championship under those circumstances with a stud in goal covering up the team's disinterest in the rigours of playing defense.

 

[IPS]

I don't see this team as a Cup winner either. But we can go straight up on offense with Tampa and beat them. They have a young talented athletic goalie but he is still green and he has far too many Bernier moments.
Boston has a complete team and if we have to play them in round 2 we will be out. They have better tending, much better defense and their top line is flat out better than ours. Plus they have 2 guys who can beat us up. We only have a advantage on line 2 and I doubt Matty can carry team to 4 wins on his own. It is not impossible but he would have to go nuts in 4 individual games and carry team on his back.

Unless Sandin and Dermott go absolutely next level in their development (I mean one of them becoming a legitimate elite #1D) and we somehow get them on cheap contracts ala Duncan Keith, I'm also having a tough time seeing this team go all the way.

 

[deletethis]

Boston has a complete team and if we have to play them in round 2 we will be out. They have better tending, much better defense and their top line is flat out better than ours. Plus they have 2 guys who can beat us up. We only have a advantage on line 2 and I doubt Matty can carry team to 4 wins on his own. It is not impossible but he would have to go nuts in 4 individual games and carry team on his back.

If the team could will its way to a Conference Final, things like team softness and team defense seem less important. Those series have different feel to them. There's a more regular season feel to those games maybe because the intensity of the first two series are impossible to maintain. I like this team's chances more in any Conference Finals series and Final series than any Divisional series.

 

[deletethis]

Unless Sandin and Dermott go absolutely next level in their development (I mean one of them becoming a legitimate elite #1D) and we somehow get them on cheap contracts ala Duncan Keith, I'm also having a tough time seeing this team go all the way.

I don't see it in Dermott although 2nd pairing isn't out of the question. Sandin is still a wild card. There were definite growing pains last season, he seems to like to create trouble for himself out of nothing and is a little too brave for his own good. But Sandin's got that air of a stud defender: confident, competitive, maybe a tiny bit arrogant. Or he may just be one of these well-trained Swedish defensemen that are a little ahead of the curve and hence looks better than your average 19 yo NHL defender.

 

[Todd03]

Since Kyle Dubass has taking over as the General Manager
The team is totally going in the wrong direction. The way
he is building this team is as if he is still in the O.H.L.
Skill and speed will never win a Stanley Cup. It's one thing
for the regular season but come playoff time it's a total different
season. Games get tougher, gritter and down right nasty.As
of right now this team has none if it. Including HEART.
A bunch of rich kids who have not earn of dam thing.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Unless Sandin and Dermott go absolutely next level in their development (I mean one of them becoming a legitimate elite #1D) and we somehow get them on cheap contracts ala Duncan Keith, I'm also having a tough time seeing this team go all the way.

This to me is like dreaming in technicolour before technicolour came out. These 2 guys are still kids. Yes they have top line potential in them but it is still years away. But you have a point. I would go to Dermy and say to him lookie here we need you to play with Muzzy and at all costs stop Bruins top line. I still think it is too much of an ask. But Holl and Rielly can't handle it. Sandin is not fast enough to keep up. It would be our only chance.

 

[deletethis]

This to me is like dreaming in technicolour before technicolour came out. These 2 guys are still kids. Yes they have top line potential in them but it is still years away. But you have a point. I would go to Dermy and say to him lookie here we need you to play with Muzzy and at all costs stop Bruins top line. I still think it is too much of an ask. But Holl and Rielly can't handle it. Sandin is not fast enough to keep up. It would be our only chance.

I've got a one word suggestion to partner with Muzzin against that formidable line (next season): Pietrangelo.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Dubas is not an issue. I'm glad it's him and not Hunter. I liked a lot of what he's done but I'd be lying if I said I'm not worried.

Not about him but just everything. We really really need to get at least one cup before Matthews deal is up. I don't think he will leave but you never know. I don't buy into LHD on left side only and vise versa so getting another muzzin level player is a must.. We have to have another one.

having said that we still need the boys to play. I am annoyed by covid because we would know right now, as I post this, where we are at. . Even if hockey comes back and we go far it won't be an accurate assessment as we need to see 82 games(no nreaks) plus playoffs to get the real data...

So I'm worried about the maturity and growth...