Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[Menzinger]

People say this all the time like this is a good thing without actually applying the math to this ..

Marner and Point are very good comparable except for contracts.

2018-19 Stats
==========
11th overall - Mitch Marner, RW - TOR .. 82 games 26 goals 68 assists 94 points 22 +/- & 22 pims [1.15 ppg]
12th overall - Brayden Point, C -TB .......... 79 games 41 goals 51 assists 92 points 27 +/- & 28 pims [1.16 ppg]

Marner
LENGTH: 6 YEARS - EXPIRY STATUS: UFA
VALUE: $65,358,000 - C.H.% : 13.37 ... AAV $10.893 mil
SIGNING DATE: September 13, 2019
vs
Point
LENGTH: 3 YEARS - EXPIRY STATUS: RFA
VALUE: $20,250,000 - C.H.% : 8.28 ... AAV $6.75 mil
SIGNING DATE: September 23, 2019

Point has a C.H. % of 8.28% vs Marner of 13.37 % with CBA max limit of 16% per individual, with Point still an RFA at completion vs UFA for Marner.

Renewal math ..

Tampa Bay is saving [$65,358,000 - $20,250,000] = +$45,108,000 cap space over the next 3 years or $4.143 mil AAV/season

Over the next 6 years to make these contracts equal on cap usage over the same time period.

Marner ... $10.893 mil + $10.896 mil + $10.893 mil (over next 3 years) + $10,893 mil +$10.893 mil + $10.896 mil = $65,358,000 total cap space / 6 years.
Point ...... $6.75 mil + $6.75 mil + $6.75 mil (& resigned as RFA) ............. + $15,036 mil + $15,036 mil +$15,036 mil = $65,358,000 total cap space / 6 years.

Brayden Point's next contract in 3 years time when renewed would need to be more than > $15.036 mil AAV to exceed Marner's over the next 6 years, while saving +$4.143 mil extra cap space over the next 3 seasons.

Personally I'd be surprised in Point's next deal is > Marner's current deal NOW and would be less than < $10.896 mil. Reason Kucherov his teammate put up 128 points lead the league in scoring and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies and re-signed for 8 years @ $9.5 mil per. If Marner and Point for the next 3 years are statistically equal then TB is using > $4 mil less cap space for similar production.

So it would be interesting to see where you think Leafs are in a better position cap wise with Marner now or in the future when Point is renewed after 3 years?

I think youre potentially really underestimating Points raise on his next deal. If he continues to flirt with 90+ points over his bridge, i won't put a cap yet on what he earns next.

The Bolts may very well end up ahead in terms of saving money - but such will be the case where there is no state income tax and players can golf snd fish their way through the regular season. They have a history of getting good contracts, and its not just the skill of their negotiators..

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think youre potentially really underestimating Points raise on his next deal. If he continues to flirt with 90+ points over his bridge, i won't put a cap yet on what he earns next.

The Bolts may very well end up ahead in terms of saving money - but such will be the case where there is no state income tax and players can golf snd fish their way through the regular season. They have a history of getting good contracts, and its not just the skill of their negotiators..

They'll also save money if he's actually just a mid-70s scorer that had an unsustainable year on the PP. Making the case that Point => Marner and deserves the same money may be a stretch by the time the bridge is up.

 

[weems]

I really have no idea what to think.

It's easy for me to be optimistic because we're loaded with talent and have played some really great hockey for stretchs.
It's also easy for me to be negative because I do question if we're properly built to go all the way and we've also played horrific lifeless hockey and I dont think its unfair to question this teams intensity or willingness to sacrifice.

The one thing that is very encouraging is our drafting under Dubas. It's early days but both the Robertson and Sandin picks look to be homeruns when you factor in where we selected them and how much their stock has risen since. Drafting is basically the lifeblood of any succesfull sports franchise that consistently contends and so far I've been impressed with Dubas in this regard.

I think we need to see how Robertson, Sandin and Liljegren develop and how fast they can contribute before we can make a full analysis. If they all hit, our situation and some of the options we'll have to round out our team would improve. Having a coach that is on the same page as the GM is also a massive thing especially when the GM is building the team to play a certain way.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Those Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares contracts are always going to put enormous pressures on other areas of the lineup. The individual contracts are arguably too much and so is the number of those contracts. There's clearly 1 too many $11M player for proper lineup balance.

Every off season the Leafs' GM will have to scramble to find inexpensive solutions for the defense and goaltending. The price for these less than ideal inexpensive solutions will involve futures.
Every off season player(s) still under control (pre-unrestricted free agency) are at risk to having to be dealt to alleviate cap crunches.

What didn’t you understand when Dubas said exactly that. He said, he can and he will sign all three and have to be on his game to work the fringes to manage the cap. Thats the way he intended in from the start. He has 2 elite centers and 2 elite right wingers. Dubas does a very efficient job working the fringes. Then he signs Muzzin who is not a fringe because he has enough elc depth on defense to manage that well.
He picks Robertson and has a scoring Left winger maybe even this year. Wrecks everyone else on recruiting top European players to coming over. The way he treats players helps in doing so. He’s a quality Man and a good G.M.
Options to trade players to manage the cap are very high because he has quality young players at reasonable contracts that would attract many bidders if need be.
He doesn’t have a single bad contract on the team. He would have multiple offers on any of our top four forwards before you could say snap if he ever offered any of them up(excludingJT) with the full NMC.
The team is in good hands

 

[Duffman955]

Team has gotten worse every year, o results based analysis says he has been bad

 

[kb]

...Swell, but completely ignores Cap inflation, and that you are trying to compare contracts signed in 2013 in absolute non-inflated dollars, to contracts signed in 2018 and 2019. As a result, everything you say is null and void.

This just about sums it up for most/all posts.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Team has gotten worse every year, o results based analysis says he has been bad

You go on like this year is a decade. Wtf

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

Does anyone remember what it was like before Dubas came on board? We were the laughing stock of the league. Atleast now we are only the laughing stock of the league vs emergency goalies.

 

[Go4soda]

Dubas, although young and relatively inexperienced, is a smart and promising gm.
I think he has done some good things here. The team has definitely improved in the time he, and lamorello have been here.
Having said that, his vision of how a hockey team should be built is one I do not share. I respect him for believing in a philosophy, and sticking with it. But I think that in order to win ultimately, another GM will will have to replace him.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Dubas, although young and relatively inexperienced, is a smart and promising gm.
I think he has done some good things here. The team has definitely improved in the time he, and lamorello have been here.
Having said that, his vision of how a hockey team should be built is one I do not share. I respect him for believing in a philosophy, and sticking with it. But I think that in order to win ultimately, another GM will will have to replace him.

We might come to a point where we need a Burke in Anaheim kind of GM, but I think Dubas has a good amount of rope before we get to that point. Dubas is good at bringing in traceable assets, we'd be in good shape if it comes to that point.

 

[FlareKnight]

Just looking at the poll question, I'll say less optimistic. And it isn't simply about whether Dubas has done a great or bad job. It can certainly enter the discussion since the GM does a lot to put a team on the ice obviously.

I'm just less optimistic about this team than I was 2 years ago. The contracts signed and the costs required to work around them don't leave me as hopeful that they can figure it out. Constantly in a race before you have to struggle to hold on to guys like Rielly or replace Andersen. We've seen this team show an incredible lack of effort for a couple seasons in a row now. And what was a short term issue of not making it out of the first round hasn't yet been resolved. Of course who knows if things hadn't been derailed if that changed or not. So that's only a really minor issue since the team only really had one playoff attempt since Dubas took over.

Things aren't all bad. I overall like the drafting we've been doing with what we've had. Continuing to bring in various European talent isn't bad either.

But overall, if I was going to be more, less, or equally hopeful than 2 years ago...I'd say less. There as a bit more hope a few years ago since there was still the hope that we'd get our core guys signed to good contracts or have a playoff breakthrough before it all went to cap hell. Now those deals are on paper, we're trying to juggle a roster around the cap, and it doesn't feel like they are any better. Not all about the GM though. I expected more from the core guys in terms of figuring out that effort might be required to win anything.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Less. Much less. But much of it has little to do with Dubas.

I don't feel that Lou would have got the NMM to sign good contracts. I always felt that part of the reason why Lou was removed was because he was getting no where with Nylander and the organization knew that all three were not interested in signing for a penny less than the absolute most they extract from the Leafs. I think that there is a cultural problem that has developed in the Leafs - and I feel that it developed under Lou and Babs. Throughout the summer of 2018 I said that NMM were going to be extremely difficult and expensive to sign. Probably one or more of NMM would no longer be Leafs if Lou was still here. I also highly doubt Lou would have managed to acquire Tavares.

I said when Matthews signed that the Leafs' chances of winning a cup over the next several years were near zero - maybe in the last year or two of Matthews' contract because the cap would have gone up a lot by then. Those already near zero chances dropped further when Marner signed - to the point where the team will struggle to remain a playoff team until the cap goes up. And those near zero chances for the next several years have been extended in years as the cap in unlikely to go up for several more years. The team will probably not be more than bubble team for the duration of the Matthews and Marner contracts. They will still be entertaining though.

The best this team has played was their series against Washington. They have significant roster problems and don't have the cap space to fix those problems unless they send out a major contract.

That whole 2nd paragraph is ridiculous

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Can we at least agree that we're better at growing our assets than under Lou? You can disagree about what kind of assets we should be getting or what we turn them into, but we can agree that this is the most collectively valuable team we've had in decades right?

Drafting Robertson instead of renting Plekanec and signing Spezza instead of Komarov is nice no?

Robertson hasn't done anything yet but Spezza is better than Komarov based on your logic the Muzzin deal shouldn't have been made.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That depends on if Dubas learns how to evaluate goaltending because for all the good he's done and there is more good than bad.

Kyle Dubas is clueless when it comes to goaltending, otherwise it wouldn't have taken him almost 18 months to find a decent backup and he either didn't try or was spectacular failure at it for nearly 18 months neither is acceptable.

The time is coming when he needs to either keep Freddy, a proven top 10 goalie, or find a replacement, and no it's NOT Jack Campbell.

IF he's learned to evaluate goaltending then we'll be fine, if not the team is screwed

 

[Bomber0104]

That depends on if Dubas learns how to evaluate goaltending because for all the good he's done and there is more good than bad.

Kyle Dubas is clueless when it comes to goaltending, otherwise it wouldn't have taken him almost 18 months to find a decent backup and he either didn't try or was spectacular failure at it for nearly 18 months neither is acceptable.

The time is coming when he needs to either keep Freddy, a proven top 10 goalie, or find a replacement, and no it's NOT Jack Campbell.

IF he's learned to evaluate goaltending then we'll be fine, if not the team is screwed

Bingo.

Worth noting though that it took him almost no time at all to give his BFF Keefe a competent backup, spending draft picks to do so as well.

Not hard to figure out why either.

 

[ACC1224]

Does anyone remember what it was like before Dubas came on board? We were the laughing stock of the league. Atleast now we are only the laughing stock of the league vs emergency goalies.

Yes, they weren't very good and got a bunch of high picks which led to where they are today.
I guess you could credit Dubas for not trading those players away once he came on board.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Robertson hasn't done anything yet

Except for become one of the most promising prospects in the world.

based on your logic the Muzzin deal shouldn't have been made.

Muzzin is way more valuable and helpful than Plekanec/Komarov.

That depends on if Dubas learns how to evaluate goaltending

The biggest source of our goaltending decline came from Andersen; previously one of our best players.

Kyle Dubas is clueless when it comes to goaltending, otherwise it wouldn't have taken him almost 18 months to find a decent backup and he either didn't try or was spectacular failure at it for nearly 18 months neither is acceptable.

It hadn't been 18 months. There weren't even 18 months from the start of the 2018-2019 season.
Sparks was 6-2-1 through the end of 2018; hardly an issue. The reason this felt worse than it was, was because we had gotten used to a 35-year old journeyman backup fluking into a literal vezina-quality season (1st in SV%, 1st in GSAA) the season before, which was wildly unsustainable.
Sparks dropped off considerably through 2019 (though still kept a SV% above 0.900), and Hutchinson was brought in.
Hutchinson played fairly well for a backup, and posted a 0.914 save percentage for us in 2018-2019.
Hutchinson started the 2019-2020 season horribly, exasperated by the incredibly abnormal frequency of back to backs early in the year. By all accounts, Dubas started looking for a replacement early, but there wasn't much available, and LA wasn't interested in dealing Campbell yet.
When Babcock was fired and Keefe brought in, the players asked to play in front of Hutchinson again, as they didn't feel like he was given a fair shake. And through the first couple months of Keefe, he was fine. He posted a 3-2 record and a 0.908 save percentage.

After that, Hutchinson would drop off considerably again, but 26 days later (including all-star break), we had Campbell.
It was nowhere close to 18 months, and some teams spend years searching for any goaltending. Sometimes a good move (like Campbell) takes patience.

The time is coming when he needs to either keep Freddy, a proven top 10 goalie, or find a replacement

While that may be true, that time is not now, or any time before now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not hard to figure out why either.

No, it's not hard to figure out why. LA was finally open to trading a player he had been targeting, for a good price, as the need increased.

 

[Bomber0104]

The biggest source of our goaltending decline came from Andersen; previously one of our best players.

This is just a flat-out lie and a bad one even for you.

Andersen posted a winning record good for an elite 103 point pace this season. The season before? An elite 108 point pace.

Our backups combined for an absolutely horrendous 60 point pace this season. The season before? An absolute trash 69 point pace.

So no the "biggest source of goaltending decline" actually came from the backups, who were already amongst the worst in the league two seasons ago. Pretty amazing that Dubas found a way to out-do himself this season with even worse backup numbers.

 

[Bomber0104]

No, it's not hard to figure out why. LA was finally open to trading a player he had been targeting, for a good price, as the need increased.

Allowing the team to roll with league-worst backup goaltending for 1+ seasons (jeopardizing the season / playoff position) because you're holding out for a trade for a middling career-backup goalie is really, really, really stupid.

I'm sorry you think Dubas is stupid enough to do something like that but I for one don't think that lowly of him.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Except for become one of the most promising prospects in the world.

Muzzin is way more valuable and helpful than Plekanec/Komarov.

The biggest source of our goaltending decline came from Andersen; previously one of our best players.

It hadn't been 18 months. There weren't even 18 months from the start of the 2018-2019 season.
Sparks was 6-2-1 through the end of 2018; hardly an issue. The reason this felt worse than it was, was because we had gotten used to a 35-year old journeyman backup fluking into a literal vezina-quality season (1st in SV%, 1st in GSAA) the season before, which was wildly unsustainable.
Sparks dropped off considerably through 2019 (though still kept a SV% above 0.900), and Hutchinson was brought in.
Hutchinson played fairly well for a backup, and posted a 0.914 save percentage for us in 2018-2019.
Hutchinson started the 2019-2020 season horribly, exasperated by the incredibly abnormal frequency of back to backs early in the year. By all accounts, Dubas started looking for a replacement early, but there wasn't much available, and LA wasn't interested in dealing Campbell yet.
When Babcock was fired and Keefe brought in, the players asked to play in front of Hutchinson again, as they didn't feel like he was given a fair shake. And through the first couple months of Keefe, he was fine. He posted a 3-2 record and a 0.908 save percentage.

After that, Hutchinson would drop off considerably again, but 26 days later (including all-star break), we had Campbell.
It was nowhere close to 18 months, and some teams spend years searching for any goaltending. Sometimes a good move (like Campbell) takes patience.

While that may be true, that time is not now, or any time before now.

September 2018-Febuary 2020 is about 17 months, that's not 18 months but it's close and it's still WAY to long to go without a quality backup.

As for Robertson until he shows what he can do at NHL level he's done nothing, the NHL is all that counts.

I know you see Dubas as a GM god that can do nothing wrong, I know this because if he fails at something you WILL make excuses for it it's what you do.

But the reality is he can't evaluate goaltending because if he could it wouldn't have taken him almost 18 months to find a decent backup.

He has 1 year before he has to either sign or replace Andersen and if he struggled for so long to fill one of the top 2 simplest spots on the team, those being backup goalie and 4th line C, what makes you think he can find a #1 goalie should he choose to let Andersen walk?

Because right now he hasn't shown ANY ability to evaluate goaltending

 

[Dekes For Days]

Andersen posted a winning record good for an elite 103 point pace this season. The season before? An elite 108 point pace.

Andersen was fine last year, but so was our backup goaltending for much of the year. Hutchinson and 1st half Sparks were fine. Only 2nd half Sparks was bad, and it had no impact on our placement as a team. While our backup was bad for half of this year, Andersen was horrible this year. He was one of the worst starting goalies in the league. He was carried to a good record because we scored so much.

Allowing the team to roll with league-worst backup goaltending for 1+ seasons

We didn't have league worst backup goaltending for 1+ seasons.

because you're holding out for a trade for a middling career-backup goalie is really, really, really stupid.

It's not about holding out for one specific trade. There weren't many available options.
However, stop-gap measures usually don't work. We saw that with Hutchinson. If Dubas had spent assets on another Hutchinson, you would just be in here complaining about that.

It seems more like you want Vezina quality backup goaltending every year for peanuts.

 

[nsleaf]

Do you feel like the leafs have a better or worse future compared to when Dubas took over on May 11th, 2018?

I was extremely optimistic when Dubas took over, and even more so when he signed Tavares. I believed the Leafs were going to end the cup drought in 5 years or less. I believed we would sign Matthews and Marner in the summer of 2018, and then Nylander before training camp. I figured nylander would sign for about 6.5 over 6-7 years, Marner at about 8-9 over 6-8 years, and Matthews to 10-11 million over 7-8 years. Many, many on here were saying the exact same things, with a large percentage of posters even suggesting lower than that.

After losing to Boston in 2019 again in the first round and then this season’s less than stellar play, I am much less convinced that we will end the cup drought. I hope I am dead wrong.

One day I'm more and the next I'm less, but I was like this with pretty much every TO GM in my lifetime.

 

[Mess]

September 2018-Febuary 2020 is about 17 months, that's not 18 months but it's close and it's still WAY to long to go without a quality backup.

As for Robertson until he shows what he can do at NHL level he's done nothing, the NHL is all that counts.

I know you see Dubas as a GM god that can do nothing wrong, I know this because if he fails at something you WILL make excuses for it it's what you do.

But the reality is he can't evaluate goaltending because if he could it wouldn't have taken him almost 18 months to find a decent backup.

He has 1 year before he has to either sign or replace Andersen and if he struggled for so long to fill one of the top 2 simplest spots on the team, those being backup goalie and 4th line C, what makes you think he can find a #1 goalie should he choose to let Andersen walk?

Because right now he hasn't shown ANY ability to evaluate goaltending

The most astonishing part of all, as one of his top priorities when taking over was that he thought he needed to change his backup goalie in McElhinney, that was part of a record setting Leafs team that finished with 105 points, while Curtis posted 11-5-1 record (.676 points % earned ) in 17 games with a sparkling 2.14 GAA and .934 sv% (among the NHL's best marks) all while making $850k AAV.

The Andersen/McBackup tandem was among the best in the league, working together like clockwork, which was gifted to him with a team that finished 5th overall in the NHL standings.

"If it ain't broke don't fix it".

Who would look at those stats and think this is an area of the team I think needs fixing?

 

[Dekes For Days]

September 2018-Febuary 2020 is about 17 months, that's not 18 months but it's close and it's still WAY to long to go without a quality backup.

In September 2018, we had 3 backup goalies. One was a backup coming off of a vezina quality season. One was a young, calder cup winning, AHL goalie of the year. As I showed, we did not have backup problems for a while that season.

As for Robertson until he shows what he can do at NHL level he's done nothing

You think all prospects and draft picks are worthless?

I know you see Dubas as a GM god that can do nothing wrong,

This is not true at all. I'd just rather evaluate him based on reality, not stuff you've made up.

But the reality is he can't evaluate goaltending because if he could it wouldn't have taken him almost 18 months to find a decent backup.

1. It wasn't 18 months, as I showed.
2. Goaltending can be one of the most difficult spots to fill, and tons of good GMs have spent years looking. It says nothing about his ability to evaluate.

He has 1 year before he has to either sign or replace Andersen

So how about we wait to see what happens until we start complaining?