Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[Martin Skoula]

We don't know what level of a player Bennett is. He dominated with the Panthers but it was a very small sample size

For me the rankings im expecting for next year are basically

Huberdeau = Marner
Matthews > Barkov
Tavares > Reinhart
Bennett = Nylander

Bennett should be a 60-70 point player (instead of the 100ish point guy he produced as with 20 in 15) which is similar to what Nylander should produce

Reinhart should be a 60-70 point player whole Tavarws hopefully is around 70-80 so a 10ish point gap.

Marner and huberdeau both around 90-100 points and about equal impact

Matthews about 100ish points with 55 goals and good defensive play. Barkov with 85 points, 35 goals and elite defensive play

The gap in forwards 5-7 will be bigger than gap in production 1-4 between the teams

Verhaeghe is the real Dela and I see him as a 50-60 point player on Barkovs wing while kerfoot as a center is 30 point guy and a winger a 40 point guy

Duclair is a 40-50 point player while Mikheyev a 20-30 point player

Hornqvist a 40-50 point player while Engvall a 15-25 point player

The Panthers are a deeper team and a better offensive team heading into 2021 than the leafs. Your right they will have to make decisions and will lose some of that depth in 2022 but for next year they have a better offensive core and a slightly worse defense than the leafs.

The bolded aren't actually on the team right now, you're giving them about 10-12 million dollars worth of forwards that they haven't actually paid for yet. Why are you not giving us an additional 10-12 million dollars worth of forwards on top of what we have signed? We have basically the same amount of cap space as them. Also Bennett/Reinhart and Hornqvist/Verhaeghe cannot both put up those point totals, whichever of them gets the top line minutes + top PP time will get close to their high range of points, the others are going to drop off. Duclair or whoever ends up on the 3rd line is not scoring 40-50 points. Likewise if Engvall got stapled to Matthews/Marner for the full season, he's not putting up 15 points.

 

[DarkKnight]

He's seen his career development or lack thereof basically under Dubas. Lou was gone after 1 year of Lilijgren hence why I said year 4 and not year 5(which he's in since being drafted)

We need some of these guys to be impact players next year if we want to be a playoff team. Lots of depth has been lost and no external replacements are coming in.

You could argue we reached peak Leafs last year, we will start to pay the price for a thinning farm system and losing assets for nothing. The GM actually agrees, he’s gone all in.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Ask around. Neutral fans think Dubas is a bad GM. He's bad

New avatar -- now your bot posts make sense.

 

[zeke]

He's seen his career development or lack thereof basically under Dubas. Lou was gone after 1 year of Lilijgren hence why I said year 4 and not year 5(which he's in since being drafted)

We need some of these guys to be impact players next year if we want to be a playoff team. Lots of depth has been lost and no external replacements are coming in.

Well dubas' first pick just turned 21 a month or 2 ago.

 

[hamzarocks]

The bolded aren't actually on the team right now, you're giving them about 10-12 million dollars worth of forwards that they haven't actually paid for yet. Why are you not giving us an additional 10-12 million dollars worth of forwards on top of what we have signed? We have basically the same amount of cap space as them. Also Bennett/Reinhart and Hornqvist/Verhaeghe cannot both put up those point totals, whichever of them gets the top line minutes + top PP time will get close to their high range of points, the others are going to drop off. Duclair or whoever ends up on the 3rd line is not scoring 40-50 points. Likewise if Engvall got stapled to Matthews/Marner for the full season, he's not putting up 15 points.

Good 3rd line players constantly put 40 to 50 points around the league. Kapanen was Pacing for 43 or 44 in his final year here and was our 3RW for the most part. Engvall playing with MM and AM will be actively hurting the team, I'm waiting on the two UFA wingers we sign to see what they put around there

I haven't given Flordia 10-11M in cap space. They will be signing those guys and having them play next year. They didn't give a 1st + Levi to have Reinahrt hold out. Whether it'd a 1 year rental or long term deal remains to be seen.

If the leafs make a move and acquire a quality top 6 RFA than it's clear they will be playing for the team next season and I'll expect their production to show so


The Panthers will have a top 9 most likely of

Verhaghe-Barkov - Reinhart
Hornqvist - Bennett - Huberdeau
Duclair - Wennerberg/Lundell - Tippett

If they can move Hornqvist for a defender or free space and insert denisenko they can retain most of their talent moving forward

Leafs top 9

UFA LW - Matthews - Marner
UFA LW - JT - Nylander
Robertson- Kerfoot - Mikheyev

We have 9M to acquire a backup and 2 LWs. I'm expecting about 3M per UFA LW which gives us guys like McGinn, Armia, discounted Tatar as options

It's hard to see the projected top 9s of both teams and come to the conclusion the leafs is superior

 

[hamzarocks]

Well dubas' first pick just turned 21 a month or 2 ago.

And you claimed he had prospects ready to come in and serve as cheap NHL ready players. Sandin especially in the playoffs did not look NHL ready. He is a player who looks like he needs another year in the NHL

Lilijgren looks developed and has done all he can at the AHL level. Robertson was very underwhelming physically and looks like he should get another year in the AHL to really dominate and put on strength. His production in a odd AHL year wasn't that great with 16 in 21.

Joey Anderson probably should be a solid 4th liner 25 point PK guy next year and have a spot in the bottom 6 if the coach isn't in love with Simmonds or Engvall

Dubas has a clock ticking and he just went all in stating that he's betting everything that this team pulls it together and figures it out. He isn't making any real changes to the team which lost to the Habs in 7 due to strong belief that they can win in the playoffs.

If they don't he won't get another chance. He acknowledged this and is accepting of it. If his picks are actually great he won't be around to reap the benefits as most of the guys need a few years before being NHL ready and whoever the next GM is will either utilize them in the roster if he values them highly or trade them off and initiate a retool.

The time constraint for Dubas doesn't match with the expected ETA of most of his picks as 2019 picks probably make the NHL in 2023 and 2020 in 2024(besides amirov) and his career/legacy being determined this coming season

 

[HC7]

There's no shot anyone can feel more optimistic today compared to the day before he was promoted to GM. If you do you're lying.

 

[Canadian Finn]

There's no shot anyone can feel more optimistic today compared to the day before he was promoted to GM. If you do you're lying.

Look for this avatar.

You will find what you seek.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Good 3rd line players constantly put 40 to 50 points around the league. Kapanen was Pacing for 43 or 44 in his final year here and was our 3RW for the most part. Engvall playing with MM and AM will be actively hurting the team, I'm waiting on the two UFA wingers we sign to see what they put around there

I haven't given Flordia 10-11M in cap space. They will be signing those guys and having them play next year. They didn't give a 1st + Levi to have Reinahrt hold out. Whether it'd a 1 year rental or long term deal remains to be seen.

If the leafs make a move and acquire a quality top 6 RFA than it's clear they will be playing for the team next season and I'll expect their production to show so


The Panthers will have a top 9 most likely of

Verhaghe-Barkov - Reinhart
Hornqvist - Bennett - Huberdeau
Duclair - Wennerberg/Lundell - Tippett

If they can move Hornqvist for a defender or free space and insert denisenko they can retain most of their talent moving forward

Leafs top 9

UFA LW - Matthews - Marner
UFA LW - JT - Nylander
Robertson- Kerfoot - Mikheyev

We have 9M to acquire a backup and 2 LWs. I'm expecting about 3M per UFA LW which gives us guys like McGinn, Armia, discounted Tatar as options

It's hard to see the projected top 9s of both teams and come to the conclusion the leafs is superior

You're using point paces on guys like Verhaeghe and Hornqvist that depended on top-6 minutes linemates and PP usage and expecting them to stay the same after new players have been brought in to replace their spots in those minutes. If you're bumping Huberdeau down to 2nd line and 2nd unit PP in favor of Reinhart, he's not putting up the same numbers as Marner anymore. If you're bumping Reinhart down to those minutes, he's not putting up his normal Buffalo numbers anymore.

At the high end of your production expectations, you penciled in 485 points between 6 forwards (half of whom have never put up 2/3s of what you're expecting in a full season). Tampa during their record breaking offensive year in 18/19 had their top 6 scorers put up 460 points. You're expecting 25 more points worth of offense from Florida's group than the team that had a 128 point Kucherov, a 98 point Stamkos, a 92 point Point, and Johnson, Gourde and Miller just short of 50 points each. You can see that this is insane right? Some of those players will probably put up close to what you are expecting, likely half of them will undershoot the bottom end of your ranges by a quarter.

I have my doubts that Florida will have the single best depth scoring season since the salary cap.

Edit: miscounted how many guys you had listed, the above is Florida with 7 forwards vs Tampa's top 6. If you add the next forward up with Killorn's 40 points, it's 500 for Tampa vs 485 for Florida, still crazy just less so. 2nd best depth scoring season since the salary cap instead of the 1st. Florida would need to score ~315 goals for those numbers to be possible.

 

[ShaneFalco]

You could argue we reached peak Leafs last year, we will start to pay the price for a thinning farm system and losing assets for nothing. The GM actually agrees, he’s gone all in.

Yup rather than even considering changing gears he's going for the win this year future be damned because he won't be here to see it. Which is why he'll probably keep Rielly and he'll probably walk cuz we'll have holes again next year.

 

[ToneDog]

Good 3rd line players constantly put 40 to 50 points around the league. Kapanen was Pacing for 43 or 44 in his final year here and was our 3RW for the most part. Engvall playing with MM and AM will be actively hurting the team, I'm waiting on the two UFA wingers we sign to see what they put around there

I haven't given Flordia 10-11M in cap space. They will be signing those guys and having them play next year. They didn't give a 1st + Levi to have Reinahrt hold out. Whether it'd a 1 year rental or long term deal remains to be seen.

If the leafs make a move and acquire a quality top 6 RFA than it's clear they will be playing for the team next season and I'll expect their production to show so


The Panthers will have a top 9 most likely of

Verhaghe-Barkov - Reinhart
Hornqvist - Bennett - Huberdeau
Duclair - Wennerberg/Lundell - Tippett

If they can move Hornqvist for a defender or free space and insert denisenko they can retain most of their talent moving forward

Leafs top 9

UFA LW - Matthews - Marner
UFA LW - JT - Nylander
Robertson- Kerfoot - Mikheyev

We have 9M to acquire a backup and 2 LWs. I'm expecting about 3M per UFA LW which gives us guys like McGinn, Armia, discounted Tatar as options

It's hard to see the projected top 9s of both teams and come to the conclusion the leafs is superior

If the Panthers come at the Leafs like they did against Tampa, they will steamroll Dubas' boys. Not even Goalie Bob can save the Leafs.

 

[ToneDog]

Look for this avatar.

You will find what you seek.

His legacy will be "We can and we will" and "For better or worse". The End.

 

[hamzarocks]

You're using point paces on guys like Verhaeghe and Hornqvist that depended on top-6 minutes linemates and PP usage and expecting them to stay the same after new players have been brought in to replace their spots in those minutes. If you're bumping Huberdeau down to 2nd line and 2nd unit PP in favor of Reinhart, he's not putting up the same numbers as Marner anymore. If you're bumping Reinhart down to those minutes, he's not putting up his normal Buffalo numbers anymore.

At the high end of your production expectations, you penciled in 485 points between 6 forwards (half of whom have never put up 2/3s of what you're expecting in a full season). Tampa during their record breaking offensive year in 18/19 had their top 6 scorers put up 460 points. You're expecting 25 more points worth of offense from Florida's group than the team that had a 128 point Kucherov, a 98 point Stamkos, a 92 point Point, and Johnson, Gourde and Miller just short of 50 points each. You can see that this is insane right? Some of those players will probably put up close to what you are expecting, likely half of them will undershoot the bottom end of your ranges by a quarter.

I have my doubts that Florida will have the single best depth scoring season since the salary cap.

Edit: miscounted how many guys you had listed, the above is Florida with 7 forwards vs Tampa's top 6. If you add the next forward up with Killorn's 40 points, it's 500 for Tampa vs 485 for Florida, still crazy just less so. 2nd best depth scoring season since the salary cap instead of the 1st.

Huberdeau already played line 2 this year with Bennett. His production was around Marners (a bit less).

Barkov produced playing with Duclair in the top 6 the upgrade to Reinhart is quite a big one.

Florida can run their big 4 forwards and Ekblad on PP1 and help them get the point threshold I said

Verhaghe had most of his points this year at EVS and produced around 60ish points despite limited PP time and points. He had 2 PP points out of his 36 showing he was producing at 5v5/EVS this year

If they play 82 games (no injuries, which are unlikely) I see them being up there as a the best offensive team of the Cap era as a collective. They won't have a single top 5 producer but will have a lot of point producers in the top 9. I see them coming first in the divison. Their best players are older then ours and should be I their primes, their depth players are superior and they have better coaching than ours who helps them have a lethal Powerplay

 

[DarkKnight]

Look for this avatar.

You will find what you seek.

This is the updated version for the real world denizens.

 

[PromisedLand]

If the Panthers come at the Leafs like they did against Tampa, they will steamroll Dubas' boys. Not even Goalie Bob can save the Leafs.

Panthers just traded for Rienhart that gives them additional scoring touch.

Also, Panthers have 11 million in cap space and already have 21 roster players only 2 more bodies to round up 23 man roster

Leafs have 9.4 million in capspace with only 17 roster players i.e. 6 more bodies to sign to sign (not counting robertson or lily)

 

[saltming]

No

 

[Martin Skoula]

Panthers just traded for Rienhart that gives them additional scoring touch.

Also, Panthers have 11 million in cap space and already have 21 roster players only 2 more bodies to round up 23 man roster

Leafs have 9.4 million in capspace with only 17 roster players i.e. 6 more bodies to sign to sign (not counting robertson or lily)

Are Reinhart and Bennett going to play for free? They either have those two or they have 11 million in cap space, there is no scenario where they have both.

 

[ToneDog]

Panthers just traded for Rienhart that gives them additional scoring touch.

Also, Panthers have 11 million in cap space and already have 21 roster players only 2 more bodies to round up 23 man roster

Leafs have 9.4 million in capspace with only 17 roster players i.e. 6 more bodies to sign to sign (not counting robertson or lily)

They are also getting Ekblad back and Spencer Knight may win ROTY. Many Leaf fans in denial along with Shinny and the board are is for a rude awaking starting in mid October.

 

[PromisedLand]

Look for this avatar.

You will find what you seek.

And add the following posts in making your decision

Sequence
1)
Impact of Hyman leaving on Matthews-Marner

2)
Impact of Hyman leaving on Matthews-Marner

3)
Impact of Hyman leaving on Matthews-Marner

 

[PromisedLand]

Are Reinhart and Bennett going to play for free? They either have those two or they have 11 million in cap space, there is no scenario where they have both.

Bennet is not that important i think he will be dealt unlesss he signs for 1 year very cheap to up his value

 

[ottomaddox]

You could easily trade Kerfoot and Marner, though getting fair value for Marner would be a challenge.

If we start the season with Kerfoot as a regular roster player then you couldn't easily trade Kerfoot. He also never got picked up in expansion, so it is hard to buy his so called appeal.

Could Marner fetch a 1st and an A level prospect?

 

[PromisedLand]

They are also getting Ekblad back and Spencer Knight may win ROTY. Many Leaf fans in denial along with Shinny and the board are is for a rude awaking starting in mid October.

• Boston plenty of cap space and signed Hall for cheap can really bolster their roster
• Tampa is Tampa they have their 1C (point), 1D (Hedman), 1G (Vasy) and premium wingers (Kuch, Stamkos)
• Montreal will have confidence from the cup run; and cap space especially with Weber going on LTIR
• Ottawa is an up and coming team
• Florida we already discussed

Sabres are the only one who will SUCK ASS. If we cannot get top 3 in atlantic that means wildcard fight

metro division wild card potential competitors:

• canes, pens, caps, isles, rangers, philly (made huge changes)

Eastern conference is going to be very tough this upcoming season

 

[Martin Skoula]

Bennet is not that important i think he will be dealt unlesss he signs for 1 year very cheap to up his value

So is Reinhart playing for free then? Because it seems to me like they have 19 players (16 if we're not counting Heponiemi/Luostarinen/Tippett since we're not counting Lily and Robertson for us) under contract right now. Seems like a deliberately dishonest comparison.

 

[PromisedLand]

So is Reinhart playing for free then? Because it seems to me like they have 19 players (16 if we're not counting Heponiemi/Luostarinen/Tippett since we're not counting Lily and Robertson for us) under contract right now. Seems like a deliberately dishonest comparison.

Took the stats from cap friendly. Here is the link for Florida

Florida Panthers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Martin Skoula]

Took the stats from cap friendly. Here is the link for Florida

Florida Panthers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So you can see that Reinhart is an RFA right now but included him in their roster and gave them 10 mil in cap space anyway. Likewise counted their ELCs as part of their 21 man roster but for some reason Lily and Robertson don't count for ours.