Are you feeling more or less optimistic about the leafs future since Dubas took over?

[PromisedLand]

So you can see that Reinhart is an RFA right now but included him in their roster and gave them 10 mil in cap space anyway.

Rienhart will have to be signed. I didn't say they didnt have to sign him

 

[PromisedLand]

If we start the season with Kerfoot as a regular roster player then you couldn't easily trade Kerfoot. He also never got picked up in expansion, so it is hard to buy his so called appeal.

Could Marner fetch a 1st and an A level prospect?

Not without Leafs retaining IMO. Nobody values Marner at 11 AAV in the league especially since he doesn't have the history of producing such numbers without elite centers playing with him.

Only saving grace could be that some cheapskate team is willing to pay the "real dollars" to marner after the signing bonuses are paid off not caring about the cap hit and want to reach the cap floor. Besides Ottawa and Arizona I don't see any team doing it.

 

[ToneDog]

Not without Leafs retaining IMO. Nobody values Marner at 11 AAV in the league especially since he doesn't have the history of producing such numbers without elite centers playing with him.

Only saving grace could be that some cheapskate team is willing to pay the "real dollars" to marner after the signing bonuses are paid off not caring about the cap hit and want to reach the cap floor. Besides Ottawa and Arizona I don't see any team doing it.

Zona is not planning on spending to the cap. They can easily absorb the difference in his AAV and the real dollars he is owed. Now would be a great time to swoop in and help them out.

 

[zeke]

We don't know what level of a player Bennett is. He dominated with the Panthers but it was a very small sample size

For me the rankings im expecting for next year are basically

Huberdeau = Marner
Matthews > Barkov
Tavares > Reinhart
Bennett = Nylander

Bennett should be a 60-70 point player (instead of the 100ish point guy he produced as with 20 in 15) which is similar to what Nylander should produce

Reinhart should be a 60-70 point player whole Tavarws hopefully is around 70-80 so a 10ish point gap.

Marner and huberdeau both around 90-100 points and about equal impact

Matthews about 100ish points with 55 goals and good defensive play. Barkov with 85 points, 35 goals and elite defensive play

The gap in forwards 5-7 will be bigger than gap in production 1-4 between the teams

Verhaeghe is the real Dela and I see him as a 50-60 point player on Barkovs wing while kerfoot as a center is 30 point guy and a winger a 40 point guy

Duclair is a 40-50 point player while Mikheyev a 20-30 point player

Hornqvist a 40-50 point player while Engvall a 15-25 point player

The Panthers are a deeper team and a better offensive team heading into 2021 than the leafs. Your right they will have to make decisions and will lose some of that depth in 2022 but for next year they have a better offensive core and a slightly worse defense than the leafs.

I believe after signing their RFAs Florida is essentially capped out. The Leafs on the other hand are still likely to add 2 middle six forwards on the UFA market.

This a guess how the two forward groups line up, with their 2yr scoring paces:

Matthews (23) 59gls/98pts --- Barkov (25) 33gls/85pts
Marner (23) 26gls/96pts ------ Huberdeau (27) 28gls/92pts
Tavares (30) 31gls/76pts ------ Reinhart (25) 31gls/60pts

Nylander (24) 33gls/70pts --- Duclair (25) 25gls/54pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Hornqvist (34) 27gls/55pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Verhaeghe (25) 23gls/42pts

Spezza (37) 14gls/40pts ------- Vatrano (27) 22gls/39pts
Mikheyev (26) 13gls/35pts --- Bennett (24) 15gls/32pts
Kerfoot (26) 12gls/35pts ------- Acciari (29) 18gls/29pt

Simmonds (32) 12gls/26pts -- Wallmark (25) 11gls/26pts
Engvall (24) 14gls/25pts ------- Marchment (25) 4gls/24pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Lammikko (25) 4gls/11pts

 

[zeke]

And you claimed he had prospects ready to come in and serve as cheap NHL ready players. Sandin especially in the playoffs did not look NHL ready. He is a player who looks like he needs another year in the NHL

Lilijgren looks developed and has done all he can at the AHL level. Robertson was very underwhelming physically and looks like he should get another year in the AHL to really dominate and put on strength. His production in a odd AHL year wasn't that great with 16 in 21.

Joey Anderson probably should be a solid 4th liner 25 point PK guy next year and have a spot in the bottom 6 if the coach isn't in love with Simmonds or Engvall

Dubas has a clock ticking and he just went all in stating that he's betting everything that this team pulls it together and figures it out. He isn't making any real changes to the team which lost to the Habs in 7 due to strong belief that they can win in the playoffs.

If they don't he won't get another chance. He acknowledged this and is accepting of it. If his picks are actually great he won't be around to reap the benefits as most of the guys need a few years before being NHL ready and whoever the next GM is will either utilize them in the roster if he values them highly or trade them off and initiate a retool.

The time constraint for Dubas doesn't match with the expected ETA of most of his picks as 2019 picks probably make the NHL in 2023 and 2020 in 2024(besides amirov) and his career/legacy being determined this coming season

I claimed that he was very good at drafting, which would replenish our team going forward.

Given that his oldest pick just turned 21, and he hasn't had any elite picks to use, this obviously can't have been expected to happen already.

 

[hamzarocks]

I believe after signing their RFAs Florida is essentially capped out. The Leafs on the other hand are still likely to add 2 middle six forwards on the UFA market.

This a guess how the two forward groups line up, with their 2yr scoring paces:

Matthews (23) 59gls/98pts --- Barkov (25) 33gls/85pts
Marner (23) 26gls/96pts ------ Huberdeau (27) 28gls/92pts
Tavares (30) 31gls/76pts ------ Reinhart (25) 31gls/60pts

Nylander (24) 33gls/70pts --- Duclair (25) 25gls/54pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Hornqvist (34) 27gls/55pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Verhaeghe (25) 23gls/42pts

Spezza (37) 14gls/40pts ------- Vatrano (27) 22gls/39pts
Mikheyev (26) 13gls/35pts --- Bennett (24) 15gls/32pts
Kerfoot (26) 12gls/35pts ------ Wallmark (25) 11gls/26pts

Simmonds (32) 12gls/26pts -- Marchment (25) 4gls/24pts
Engvall (24) 14gls/25pts ------- Lammikko (25) 4gls/11pts
Prospects

This underrates Bennett and Verhaghe quite heavily who took a big step once coming to the Panthers in bigger roles.

If they are closer to this level than what they showed in their time with the Panthers leafs will be better. If they play at ~80% of the level they were at in 2021 the Panthers are better. Will remain to be seen how things play out

 

[ToneDog]

I believe after signing their RFAs Florida is essentially capped out. The Leafs on the other hand are still likely to add 2 middle six forwards on the UFA market.

This a guess how the two forward groups line up, with their 2yr scoring paces:

Matthews (23) 59gls/98pts --- Barkov (25) 33gls/85pts
Marner (23) 26gls/96pts ------ Huberdeau (27) 28gls/92pts
Tavares (30) 31gls/76pts ------ Reinhart (25) 31gls/60pts

Nylander (24) 33gls/70pts --- Duclair (25) 25gls/54pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Hornqvist (34) 27gls/55pts
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ----- Verhaeghe (25) 23gls/42pts

Spezza (37) 14gls/40pts ------- Vatrano (27) 22gls/39pts
Mikheyev (26) 13gls/35pts --- Bennett (24) 15gls/32pts
Kerfoot (26) 12gls/35pts ------ Wallmark (25) 11gls/26pts

Simmonds (32) 12gls/26pts -- Marchment (25) 4gls/24pts
Engvall (24) 14gls/25pts ------- Lammikko (25) 4gls/11pts
Prospects

We might have great individual talent but I like Team Florida over Team Dubas.

 

[hamzarocks]

I claimed that he was very good at drafting, which would replenish our team going forward.

Given that his oldest pick just turned 21, and he hasn't had any elite picks to use, this obviously can't have been expected to happen already.

Your claim was then speculative but you stated it as a matter of fact. It's to be determined to what degree and effectiveness the players he's taken perform at in the NHL

In 2017/2018 people were making the same claims on Bracco, Tymoshov, Grundstrom, Kara as guys who could step up and perform at the NHL level in the near future which ultimately never happened for the leafs.

I don't disagree he's got a good eye for talent at the draft. The leafs organization though has struggled with developing quality defenseman (Schenn, Aulie, Percy, Finn in the past. With dermott being underwhelming in the shanny era, Nielsen busting and Sandin and Liligren not having cemented their spots as of this upcoming year). A lot of the players he's taken are long term prospects (Koster, Abruzzese, Niemela) who will take several years to become NHL ready and we can't just make a definitive statement that these guys will be able to step up and take on bigger roles with the team

 

[ottomaddox]

Seattle would have jumped at the chance to pick those contracts.

Why?

Like the same chance to jump on Carey Price?

Based on Francis' moves, cap savings is certainly a factor.

 

[PromisedLand]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021/07/24/kyle-dubas-on-toronto-maple-leafs-offseason/

Everybody is going to roll their eyes when they hear this, but it has been different this year in terms of our players’ reaction to this. After the season, there was tremendous disappointment and a lot of introspection. There was no real blame of anybody else or pointing fingers elsewhere.

As I said the other day, I do have a very strong belief in this group and I am excited to see us get rolling again next season.

T-1 year before we get a new GM

 

[Sypher04]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021/07/24/kyle-dubas-on-toronto-maple-leafs-offseason/




T-1 year before we get a new GM

Yeah, it's eye roll worthy for sure, but at the same time, I would certainly hope so. They not only blew a 3-1 series lead against a far worse team, but they wasted a huge opportunity to go the Final 4 without having to play any of the other good Atlantic teams.

Things only get harder from here again.

 

[zeke]

Why?

Like the same chance to jump on Carey Price?

Based on Francis' moves, cap savings is certainly a factor.

Exactly - the Habs could expose price knowing that they wouldn't take that contract - and wouldn't even be upset if they did.

Leafs have no contracts remotely similar.

 

[Stephen]

Yeah, it's eye roll worthy for sure, but at the same time, I would certainly hope so. They not only blew a 3-1 series lead against a far worse team, but they wasted a huge opportunity to go the Final 4 without having to play any of the other good Atlantic teams.

Things only get harder from here again.

Dubas: It has been very interesting. Everybody is going to roll their eyes when they hear this, but it has been different this year in terms of our players’ reaction to this. After the season, there was tremendous disappointment and a lot of introspection. There was no real blame of anybody else or pointing fingers elsewhere.

Makes you wonder what was going on in the previous failures. Assume Babcock in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Who got the blame in 2020?

 

[ryno23]

I still think the Leafs will make the playoffs this year. They will end up 3rd or better in the division. TB is losing tons of depth but still has some quality. The leafs always played the lighting tight for the most part. Bos is also a question mark with no goalies signed and a year older. MTL was 18 points behind us last year. FLA has goalie questions. BUFF is well BUFF. Ottawa could be better and give a run for the playoff spot.

I think finally this playoff failure falls directly on the players and they know it. There is no covid excuse, new coach, old bad coach or inexperience excuse. They simply failed to close out a series.

Marner and Matthews should come back hungrier....well maybe not Marner.

 

[daveleaf]

This team is as far away from a Stanley cup as they have ever been. There was no silver lining in this ending, just another pathetic playoff debacle.

How does a team have stones if the GM doesn't? You guys can go on about boy wonder all you want but his body of work is not very good. His best stand has been not caving to Edm demand on Hyman trade but he took the stand too late.

 

[ottomaddox]

Exactly - the Habs could expose price knowing that they wouldn't take that contract - and wouldn't even be upset if they did.

Leafs have no contracts remotely similar.

Of course we do. The problem is that TOR's group hasn't won anything.

 

[Hoverhand]

Of course we do. The problem is that TOR's group hasn't won anything.

You're delusional if you think that Marner doesn't get picked if he was exposed. I'm sorry, but it's that simple.

Price's two playoff performances don't negate the fact that he's clearly on a decline and the fact that Montreal needed to shell out actual cap space for a 1B to just make the playoffs last year. Seattle isn't just going to assume that he's going to keep up these magical playoff runs for years to come and just deal with the fact that he was a .901 in the regular season.

That's not the same as one of the league's best playmakers with two bad playoff performances.

 

[egd27]

He was also in win now mode, with now absolutely nothing but failure to show for it.

We bottomed out to the point of finishing dead last, and then started march forward with what seemed to be the "classic" rebuild strategy.

At the end of year two Shanny handed the keys to Kid Kyle, who 7 weeks later tossed the rebuild out the window and went into "win now" mode.

He saw the shiny centre in the store window and couldn't control his excitement and need to land the big fish after not landing Stamkos the year prior. (yes I know that was Lou)

He has been in win now mode ever since with nothing to show for it.

So the 2 year rebuild hasn't worked......oh well, maybe the next GM can stay patient longer than 7 weeks.

 

[Trapper]

We might have great individual talent but I like Team Florida over Team Dubas.

That’s exactly the point people keep missing.
They value individual over team.
We lost to teams that had Danault and Dubois as 1C. Why? Because they are better?

The core needs to be able to play multiple ways, have the drive and intensity to do so and quality depth to back it up.
We don’t. These guys will hang Dubas.
They didn’t show up for Tavares.
They didn’t show up for a rookie goalie.
They didn’t show up for a Zamboni driver.
They didn’t show up playoffs.

What is Dubas betting they have his back on? History?

 

[Dekes For Days]

At the end of year two Shanny handed the keys to Kid Kyle, who 7 weeks later tossed the rebuild out the window and went into "win now" mode.

That's not true at all. The "win now" mode started long before Dubas, when Lou was signing veteran cap anchors, chasing high-value UFAs, keeping valuable pending UFAs, and trading for rentals at the deadline.

 

[Lauro]

Less, which has not much to do with Dubas, although the overpriced contracts don't help ... , but everything to do with the extremely disappointing playoff showings of Andersen, Marner and Matthews and the rather modest development of Rielly.

 

[egd27]

That's not true at all. The "win now" mode started long before Dubas, when Lou was signing veteran cap anchors, chasing high-value UFAs, keeping valuable pending UFAs, and trading for rentals at the deadline.

Nope.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nope.

Thank you for confirming you have no response or rebuttal, and you know what I said was right. The "win now" mode started long before Dubas.

 

[egd27]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021/07/24/kyle-dubas-on-toronto-maple-leafs-offseason/

Everybody is going to roll their eyes when they hear this, but it has been different this year in terms of our players’ reaction to this.

T-1 year before we get a new GM

Q: Mitch, will you be doing anything differently in the off season to prepare for next year?

Marner: No.

Maybe Kyle meant different players' reactions ?

 

[egd27]

Thank you for confirming you have no response or rebuttal, and you know what I said was right. The "win now" mode started long before Dubas.

That's not true.