Are things as bad as we're saying?

[deletethis]

Okay, enough of the entertaining glass half empty stuff...

When you break down the Leafs' October, they have literally been in every single game except one: Tampa Bay. They have been merely a hair from better outcomes: a little bit of better goaltending and/or better attention to detail and/or better specialty team performance away from a good start to the season. It feels like a missed opportunity but they aren't that far away from better results. Can it be turned around? 3 consecutive Novembers the team has picked up its play. And after worst Octobers in terms of more blowout losses and a worse October performance by Freddy Andersen.

 

[Merrrlin]

What 'American Thanksgiving' NHL standings positions say about playoff chances

Date: Nov 2018

Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland often says “American Thanksgiving” is the time when a GM has a true read of where his team fits in the NHL standings.
History supports Holland in that belief.

Over the last five years, 77.5% (62 of 80) of the teams that were in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving also had one when the regular season was completed. It's 75% dating to 2005-06.

NHL: 'American Thanksgiving' a key date for playoff hopes

NHL's unofficial playoff predictor: Reading into the standings at Thanksgiving milepost

Is it possible to predict the NHL playoff field in November? Not exactly, but that hasn't stopped the practice from becoming a league-wide tradition in the last decade as each season reaches its all-telling U.S. Thanksgiving landmark.

Since the salary cap came into play in 2005-06, teams in a playoff position on the fourth Thursday in November have gone on to make it 77.8 percent of the time, according to calculations by our friends at Opta Sports. Over that span, on average, fewer than four teams out of playoff contention at this time of year reverse their fortunes in time to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year, it turned out 14 of the 16 playoff teams were in place by Nov. 24.

While incomplete, the data is compelling enough to serve as a snapshot to project standings come April.

NHL's unofficial playoff predictor: Reading into the standings at Thanksgiving milepost

The sample sizes are big enough, the schedule is old enough – we can finally start making wild playoff projections based on actual games played so far. And, historically, looking at the playoff picture as it sits today really does mean something.

It’s not early anymore. It’s the all-important American Thanksgiving cutoff.



So after October our Leafs find themselves on the outside looking in at this point, and as past historical data suggests the playoff odds of participating are decreasing rapidly.

That's a dumb statistic, tbh.

I think that statistic is baked.

Sure the top 10 teams in points at American Thanksgiving are likely to make the playoffs. They are typically the really good teams.
So if you told me 42 out of 50 top 10 teams at Thanksgiving made the playoffs that would leave only 20 out of 30 safe. 66%.

fun with numbers.

Beat me to it.

 

[Teeder Keon]

Yea Babcock for sure is the wrong coach for this team. Would be nice if they could just demote him to the Marlies and let him ride the bus. That would throw his huge ego for a loop.

By the way Sawchuk was incredible !
One of the best

Broda
Bower
Sawchuk
Hall
Crozier
Esposito
Palmateer
We’re some of my favorites

 

[Teeder Keon]

Okay, enough of the entertaining glass half empty stuff...

When you break down the Leafs' October, they have literally been in every single game except one: Tampa Bay. They have been merely a hair from better outcomes: a little bit of better goaltending and/or better attention to detail and/or better specialty team performance away from a good start to the season. It feels like a missed opportunity but they aren't that far away from better results. Can it be turned around? 3 consecutive Novembers the team has picked up its play. And after worst Octobers in terms of more blowout losses and a worse October performance by Freddy Andersen.

Some really good points regarding the actual scores and outcomes ..
My challenge to our Leafs is the way they are playing and the desire and lack of fire they are playing with .
Also done player’s that were supposed to be better , aren’t at the moment , hopefully soon though .

 

[Mess]

I think that statistic is baked.

Sure the top 10 teams in points at American Thanksgiving are likely to make the playoffs. They are typically the really good teams.
So if you told me 42 out of 50 top 10 teams at Thanksgiving made the playoffs that would leave only 20 out of 30 safe. 66%.

fun with numbers.

Since the Salary Cap was instituted it's 75% dating to 2005-06.

13 years of data X 16 playoff teams per year = 208 team sample size.

Actual 75% playoff participation rate of over 200 playoff teams over a 13 year data sample size is fairly large study and accuracy rate.

That means that if the Leafs don't turn this around soon and start playing better hockey, that in the next 3 weeks time if they're still on the outside looking in their historical odds of making the playoffs thereafter will be around 25%.

Dubas field of expertise specialty is analytics and number crunching so I suspect he is well aware of this. So maybe on US Black Friday he should be out shopping for ways to improve the Leafs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think that statistic is baked.

Sure the top 10 teams in points at American Thanksgiving are likely to make the playoffs. They are typically the really good teams.
So if you told me 42 out of 50 top 10 teams at Thanksgiving made the playoffs that would leave only 20 out of 30 safe. 66%.

fun with numbers.

I like numbers but I'm not understanding this, please explain.

 

[Crows Eye]

To the people who keep trotting out the “well, St Louis had a slow start and they won the cup” argument, I have one response - Binnington. Who exactly does Toronto have in the minors who they can bring up and instantly become an elite difference maker, being named player of the month in back to back months, a finalist for the Calder and Conn Smythe trophies? No one. Good grief, St Louis didn’t turn their season around last January with the same core players, they had a budding superstar rookie goalie join the team.
And yes, Tavares returning might give this team a bit of a lift, but the Leafs have been playing mediocre hockey since last January, long before he broke his thumb.

 

[ToMaLe]

The problem with this team has been pretty clear for a long long time. Dubas has a vision of how he wants his team built and how he wants them to play, a talented, fast, up tempo young skilled hockey team. Babcock on the other hand want a stretch pass, dump and chase style of a heavy brand of hockey with an over use of grinding veterans. The 2 are not on the same page and never will be. Anyone with an ounce of observation skills can see this. It’s like hitching a thoroughbred race horse to a hay cart. It just doesn’t make sense. The sooner a coach is brought in that would be on the same page as Dubas the better, whether it is Keefe or not. It’s much easier to get the right coach for the team then getting the right team for the coach. An arrogant, stubborn, egotistic coach that blames everyone but himself, is nothing but a cancer for this young team. Clearly the players tuned him out long ago. Babcock needs to go and needs to go yesterday.

Really like this post. Sums everything up in a nutshell.

 

[ToMaLe]

Well, we just slipped outside the playoff race and the wild card spot with Montreal having a game at hand so yea, the team sucks. No freaking heart and no direction with a stubborn coach that is not willing to step out of the bronze age.

I was thinking Stone Age but you could be right. Regardless, obviously he needs to go.

 

[hullsy47]

That's a dumb statistic, tbh.



Beat me to it.

I think it's worth noting it's hard to crawl back in

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm not pushing the panic button just yet. Its still early in the season and there's a lot of games to be played yet.

I don't think the Eastern Conference will be a cake walk though either. Buffalo, Florida, Carolina and Montreal seem to have improved and could push for a playoff spot.

 

[LeProspector]

No, they’re worse!

 

[Tak7]

It's never as bad as it seems around here.

Ever.

I think the team has been playing better. Their schedule hasn't exactly been too kind so far, but things develop into more routine and rhythm moving forward, and they are getting healthier (interesting that Muzzin missing practice today has been categorized as PERSONAL as opposed to INJURED).

I'm still not convinced that Mike Babcock is the sole and biggest problem with the team right now. I think it's become too easy to blame some of the shortcomings of the team's stars, on the feet of the coach. It's weird to me that we were willing to hang Nylander for being 100% to blame for his poor performances last year, but for some reason Babcock is to blame for Marner this year?

It's a long season. They've only played 14 games. There's still over 80% of the season left to go through.

Buffalo complicate the issue, because if they are the real deal, that would mean that the big 3 in the Atlantic (Tampa, Boston, Toronto) aren't just going to waltz into the playoffs like they have the past few years, which means there is pressure on them to get this right fairly soon.

But the season is long and there's time to turn this around.

 

[Teeder Keon]

Really like this post. Sums everything up in a nutshell.

I totally agree
Babcock
Was a good fit in the beginning years of this team
Babcock
A Good coach , not a great coach
Babcock
Just not the right coach for this team now

 

[Crows Eye]

Okay, enough of the entertaining glass half empty stuff...

When you break down the Leafs' October, they have literally been in every single game except one: Tampa Bay. They have been merely a hair from better outcomes: a little bit of better goaltending and/or better attention to detail and/or better specialty team performance away from a good start to the season. It feels like a missed opportunity but they aren't that far away from better results. Can it be turned around? 3 consecutive Novembers the team has picked up its play. And after worst Octobers in terms of more blowout losses and a worse October performance by Freddy Andersen.

Sorry, but you are wrong. In almost every statistical category the Leafs are bad. In fact, their record this season is actually flattering considering their specialty teams are horrible (17th in PP%, 23rd in PK%) and they have done nothing to address their crappy defence - they are 9th in both GA and SA per game. They score lots of goals, but like a Tampa, their loosey goosey offensive game is getting beat by any team with decent defense.

 

[ToMaLe]

No, they’re worse!

I cant argue with that. The talent on this team, we should be killing teams. Think there is a lot of dislike on the part of the players towards their coach. He is tuned out for sure.

 

[Mess]

I cant argue with that. The talent on this team, we should be killing teams. Think there is a lot of dislike on the part of the players towards their coach. He is tuned out for sure.

Hard Work Beats Talent Every Time.

Nobody questions Leafs skill and talent level, but their compete and work ethic and effort they put out is easily debatable as disappointing.

 

[ToMaLe]

Hard Work Beats Talent Every Time.

View attachment 271723

Nobody questions Leafs skill and talent level, but their compete and work ethic and effort they put out is easily debatable as disappointing.

Just like in any work place, people work harder for people they respect. When players get thrown under the bus and the coach continuously blame everyone but himself, there is no respect.

 

[Trapper]

Hard Work Beats Talent Every Time.

View attachment 271723

Nobody questions Leafs skill and talent level, but their compete and work ethic and effort they put out is easily debatable as disappointing.

Yes and unfortunately it seems to affect the 3 equally which equals bad for you. 1 out 3, not so much. 3 is a problem. Because they have made themselves half the cap and not need to carry the load but have to carry the load.

 

[Mess]

Just like in any work place, people work harder for people they respect. When players get thrown under the bus and the coach continuously blame everyone but himself, there is no respect.

At which point are the players held accountable for their own actions?

 

[ToMaLe]

At which point are the players held accountable for their own actions?

Maybe when the coach starts being accountable. Better yet, get a coach that is accountable.

 

[ToMaLe]

Maybe when the coach starts being accountable. Better yet, get a coach that is accountable.

Yup, Keefe blames every loss on himself, in contrast, Babcock blames every loss on everyone but himself. I know who I would respect more.

 

[Pilky01]

The problem with this team has been pretty clear for a long long time. Dubas has a vision of how he wants his team built and how he wants them to play, a talented, fast, up tempo young skilled hockey team. Babcock on the other hand want a stretch pass, dump and chase style of a heavy brand of hockey with an over use of grinding veterans. The 2 are not on the same page and never will be. Anyone with an ounce of observation skills can see this. It’s like hitching a thoroughbred race horse to a hay cart. It just doesn’t make sense. The sooner a coach is brought in that would be on the same page as Dubas the better, whether it is Keefe or not. It’s much easier to get the right coach for the team then getting the right team for the coach. An arrogant, stubborn, egotistic coach that blames everyone but himself, is nothing but a cancer for this young team. Clearly the players tuned him out long ago. Babcock needs to go and needs to go yesterday.

Dubas won't fire Babcock until after they have been eliminated from playoff contention.

His #1 priority is his own job security, and so long as Babcock is around, he gets to delay his turn on the hot seat because Babcock wasn't "his coach".

Its Brian Burke and Ron Wilson all over again. Dubas will drive this team off a cliff before he fires Babcock and starts to accept responsibility for the mess he has made.

 

[ToMaLe]

Dubas won't fire Babcock until after they have been eliminated from playoff contention.

His #1 priority is his own job security, and so long as Babcock is around, he gets to delay his turn on the hot seat because Babcock wasn't "his coach".

Its Brian Burke and Ron Wilson all over again. Dubas will drive this team off a cliff before he fires Babcock and starts to accept responsibility for the mess he has made.

I have to disagree, if this team fails to make the playoffs or put out in the first round again, and he did nothing about it, thats a bigger reason to get fired IMO. You just cant sit back and do nothing about the atrocious play of this team. I rather a GM that tries to do something to fix an obvious problem then just sit there and watch it get worse and worse. It’s been going on way too long already. But I understand your point.

 

[Pilky01]

I have to disagree, if this team fails to make the playoffs or put out in the first round again, and he did nothing about it, thats a bigger reason to get fired IMO. You just cant sit back and do nothing about the atrocious play of this team. I rather a GM that tries to do something to fix an obvious problem then just sit there and watch it get worse and worse. It’s been going on way too long already. But I understand your point.

Well yeah, he would absolutely deserve to get fired in that scenario, but unfortunately that isn’t how things work. Babcock deserved to get fired in May but he wasn’t. Dubas deserved to get fired as soon as he brought the Marner deal to Shannhan but he wasn’t. And he will deserve to be fired when this team misses the playoffs but that won’t happen either.