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Are the Oilers a top 5 contender next season with Jack Campbell?

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TheOrangeDesk said:
take the L? dude im providing legit evidence that when Kane is on the ice oilers get scored on less, DESPITE having more difficult minutes than the reigning Hart winner. EW is widely criticized for having terrible metrics, specifically with evaluating defence. They dont know how to evaluate context, or account for ice time usage, difficulty of those minutes. Let alone the flaws with xG which dont account for cross ice passes, how a puck got to shooting position or where every other player is on the ice during the shot.

take the L? lol dude at least I have the brain capacity to think for myself, actually understand statistics, and evaluate on ice play. you just base your entire opinion on some shitty public model, which most others disregard.
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You have the brains to rely on an infrequent event such as goals to cherry pick a statistical anomaly that is not supported in the years he has played hockey. Best to look at chances he has allowed if you had any quantitative chops but ill leave you with your mistaken impression that he is good defensively, just like Tyson Scary and Cody Cacca
 
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I'm glad actually the Oilers didn't have the "perfect roster on paper" last year because it breeds mental toughness if you continue to fight through it.

You either cry about bad goaltending ... or you suck it up and play through it. You either cry when your no.1 D is injured ... or you suck it up and play through it. 2nd best player in the world badly injured ... well cry about it ... or play through it.

Calgary was not as mentally tough as the Oilers in the playoffs, and it showed big time, they were not used to dealing with adversity or playing against a team that wouldn't back down from their huffing and puffing.

Toronto IMO needs to learn this, they still crater and go sulk rather than get pissed off and fight back in the playoffs. It's not all about skill, there has to be a will behind it.

Even in the Colorado series I felt they fought hard and battled, but the hole that Nurse's injury left on the back end was too much to overcome against a team like that and Draisaitl playing on one leg was always going to eventually take its toll too. Oilers could've rolled over and died multiple times in the post-season, it takes mental toughness to play through having a lot of crap thrown your way, but that's a good thing for a team to go through if it doesn't break you.

Maybe that's an influence Ben had on the locker room (how big are "hockey problems" when you see a 5 year old kid battling cancer, who cares if you're down 0-2 in a hockey game compared to that, who cares if you're even down 1-4), maybe it's the wild up and down drama of the regular season, maybe it's the voice of a new coach, maybe it's just a superstar who says "f*** this, I'm tired of losing" but in the end IMO the Oilers grew from that and they will be a tougher squad as a result.
 
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CanHeDoIt99 said:
I think Edmonton game to game will have a more reliable goaltender to give them average starts. But the streakiness is frankly just inherent in the position itself when you don't have a top 5 goalie in the league. Everyone rides large up and down swings, some smaller ones in season - some when you take a step back are a season long relative to other seasons. Just a lot of variance.

I think Edmonton as a whole got better goaltending than Toronto did last year though, when you zoom out. It certainly was a bit more chaotic. This doesn't mean I think they take a step back or even made a bad decision pivoting to Campbell - I think its likely that Campbell in 2022-2023 would be better than Smith/Koskinen in 2022-2023, regardless of the result last year.

Basically:

- Edmonton is better off with Campbell than what they had.
- What Edmonton had as a whole overpeformed last year, making it not unreasonable that Campbell doesn't match what they got.
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This makes no sense.

He was worse last year, but he’ll be better this year?
 
The90 said:
This makes no sense.

He was worse last year, but he’ll be better this year?
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When he was "bad" last year, wasn't that during a rib injury? If he has a rib injury every year, sure OK he might not be great, but that's not exactly an easy injury for a goalie to play through, it definitely impacts your movement.
 
Soundwave said:
When he was "bad" last year, wasn't that during a rib injury? If he has a rib injury every year, sure OK he might not be great, but that's not exactly an easy injury for a goalie to play through, it definitely impacts your movement.
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No. He started playing poorly before the rib injury. That just compounded it. Before the all star break he was already falling off.
 
The90 said:
No. He started playing poorly before the rib injury. That just compounded it. Before the all star break he was already falling off.
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Is it even clear when he suffered the injury? Because it sounded like he was playing through something for a while and then finally was forced to have to sit out and let it heal.

The Oilers are a mentally tough group anyway, they've played through stretches of both their goalies stinking up the joint last year and through things like a goalie letting in a goal literally from the other end of the ice during a key moment in the playoffs. Smith was never healthy after the 3rd game of the season and Koskinen was a mess.

I don't think Campbell has to be all things to all people. If he can be about a Cam Talbot tier goalie when he's not playing with injured ribs, that's fine.
 
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North Cole said:
Is he really that bad offensively? I think he would be higher than 5th best on an offense so anemic, they only muster 1 goal in back to back game sevens.


Ironic when Ottawa wanted to dump Murray and his salary to you....
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Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander....yes quite easily 5th.
 
Soundwave said:
Is it even clear when he suffered the injury? Because it sounded like he was playing through something for a while and then finally was forced to have to sit out and let it heal.

The Oilers are a mentally tough group anyway, they've played through stretches of both their goalies stinking up the joint last year and through things like a goalie letting in a goal literally from the other end of the ice.

I don't think Campbell has to be all things to all people. If he can be about a Cam Talbot tier goalie when he's not playing with injured ribs, that's fine.
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I agree with that. The problem is, the topic at hand is, does Jack Campbell, who gave the leafs worse goaltending than smith / Koskinen did for most of the season, make Edmonton a top 5 team.

What your describing as wanting out of Campbell is not what the leafs got out of him after the first month. And in my opinion, the leafs have a better D core and play a far more structured game than Edmonton.

Maybe you get someone in the middle, but like Smith, Campbell struggled with injuries. Many of your fans want to argue it both ways. Smith was inconsistent, injured and allowed soft goals. Glad he’s gone. Which is pretty spot on to what the leaf fans think of Jack except for the ‘glad’ part. We just couldn’t / wouldn’t want to pay him 5x 5. Hopefully it works for you, but the to answer the topic it’s pretty unlikely.
 
The90 said:
This makes no sense.

He was worse last year, but he’ll be better this year?
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He was worse last year than Mike Smith - someone who is known for being incredibly erratic year to year as a goaltender - so while he was slightly worse as a whole - I would rather bank on Campbell than Smith in just next season (I wouldn't have signed Campbell to 5 years), but I expect they're better off with Campbell than they would have been with Smith - because I expect Smith would have dropped off more this year.

It does make sense, you don't have to agree though.

Andersen was bad, then he was good in Carolina again - I would bank on him being slightly worse than he was last year, but not as bad as he was in his last season with Toronto. Its not an absurd prediction to expect a goalie is going to perform differently year to year - its actually quite reasonable given what we have seen.
 
The90 said:
I agree with that. The problem is, the topic at hand is, does Jack Campbell, who gave the leafs worse goaltending than smith / Koskinen did for most of the season, make Edmonton a top 5 team.

What your describing as wanting out of Campbell is not what the leafs got out of him after the first month. And in my opinion, the leafs have a better D core and play a far more structured game than Edmonton.

Maybe you get someone in the middle, but like Smith, Campbell struggled with injuries. Many of your fans want to argue it both ways. Smith was inconsistent, injured and allowed soft goals. Glad he’s gone. Which is pretty spot on to what the leaf fans think of Jack except for the ‘glad’ part. We just couldn’t / wouldn’t want to pay him 5x 5. Hopefully it works for you, but the to answer the topic it’s pretty unlikely.
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The question is stupid anyway, the Oilers were in the final 4 last year, and even if you want to go by regular season record, they did I believe have a top 5 record in the league after Woodcroft was hired.

Campbell had an injury one time. It happens.

Smith is 40 freaking years old, the simple fact is the human body is just not made to be playing a high reflex/twitch muscle fiber physical position of goalie at that age.

I think there's more than a fair chance Campbell does just fine for the Oilers. Leafs fans are way overly critical on any of their players minus a few golden boys that have any stretch of poor play even when there's an obvious injury component.

Andersen sucks, Barrie sucks, Ceci sucks, Kadri sucks, now Campbell sucks. People buy this shit like it's gospel on these boards too just because Leafs fans repeat it over and over again. I remember pushing for the Oilers to sign Andersen last year and the overwhelming backlash to it was that he sucked (because Leafs f***ing drilled that nonsense into everyone's heads), well actually he doesn't suck.
 
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CanHeDoIt99 said:
He was worse last year than Mike Smith - someone who is known for being incredibly erratic year to year as a goaltender - so while he was slightly worse as a whole - I would rather bank on Campbell than Smith in just next season (I wouldn't have signed Campbell to 5 years), but I expect they're better off with Campbell than they would have been with Smith - because I expect Smith would have dropped off more this year.

It does make sense, you don't have to agree though.

Andersen was bad, then he was good in Carolina again - I would bank on him being slightly worse than he was last year, but not as bad as he was in his last season with Toronto. Its not an absurd prediction to expect a goalie is going to perform differently year to year - its actually quite reasonable given what we have seen.
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Your argument is essentially, I think so because I hope so. It’s not the best argument, but it’s all you’ve got.

Soundwave said:
The question is stupid anyway, the Oilers were in the final 4 last year, and even if you want to go by regular season record, they did I believe have a top 5 record in the league after Woodcroft was hired.

Campbell had an injury one time. It happens.

Smith is 40 freaking years old, the simple fact is the human body is just not made to be playing a high reflex/twitch muscle fiber physical position of goalie at that age.

I think there's more than a fair chance Campbell does just fine for the Oilers. Leafs fans are way overly critical on any of their players minus a few golden boys that have any stretch of poor play even when there's an obvious injury component.

Anderson sucks, Barrie sucks, Ceci sucks, Kadri sucks, now Campbell sucks.
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I think he’ll be fine too. And would be surprised if he’s any worse than .910. I’m just saying he’s probably not the secret ingredient to get the oilers into the top 5. Are they top 10? Yes. I don’t think he moves the needle much at all to be a reason they push up.
 
The90 said:
Your argument is essentially, I think so because I hope so. It’s not the best argument, but it’s all you’ve got.
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My argument is that Smith having a good season last year doesn't mean they'd have been better off going with Smith this year because Smith historically has been bad.

Its not a hard argument to understand - frankly it has less to do with Campbell than it does Smith. If you can't understand that its on you. That doesn't mean Edmonton will be better next year, because Campbell would have to replicate the season Smith had last year, which isn't what i'm saying he will do.
 
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The90 said:
Your argument is essentially, I think so because I hope so. It’s not the best argument, but it’s all you’ve got.


I think he’ll be fine too. And would be surprised if he’s any worse than .910. I’m just saying he’s probably not the secret ingredient to get the oilers into the top 5. Are they top 10? Yes. I don’t think he moves the needle much at all to be a reason they push up.
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If the rib injury was a big part of the reason for his slump last year, then he could be an asset to the Oilers for sure.

Even if it's a mental issue, I got time for a goalie who can play at a high end level like he has shown, you can mature past bad stretches.

The Oilers made this same mistake with Cam Talbot but dumping him after a really bad season, but he's bounced back from that and had a couple of solid years since then which would've been better than Mikko Koskinen. I think Campbell has a higher roof than Talbot.
 
CanHeDoIt99 said:
My argument is that Smith having a good season last year doesn't mean they'd have been better off going with Smith this year because Smith historically has been bad.

Its not a hard argument to understand - frankly it has less to do with Campbell than it does Smith. If you can't understand that its on you. That doesn't mean Edmonton will be better next year, because Campbell would have to replicate the season Smith had last year, which isn't what i'm saying he will do.
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I have no problem with understanding your thinking. But you are hoping he does in contrast to his results last year. Anyways
 
Edmonton can absolutely win the Cup next year. McDrai are the class of the league.

People are going to dog them however because they lack depth. A few injuries could essentially ruin their season and playoff hopes. We saw last year the toll that first round Kings series took on them. Yes, they beat the Flames, but the Avs were able to destroy them, in part because key injuries/wear and tear hurt them.

Injuries happen to every team and in the playoffs it's an expectation. The Avs and Tampa showed their team's are build to absorb them - both teams were walking wounded heading into the SCF. Can Edmonton do the same?
 
KyleDubasBoyGenius said:
While I don't agree with it, that was a strong viewpoint of rival fans when they were Leafs. In a press conference Dubas simply defended Ceci's play and got ripped to shreds (He never even offered Ceci a contract and had no intentions of keeping him when he said this. He was protecting him). Rival fans thought he was such a moron for defending Ceci.
Also, I couldn't help but notice in the other most recent Oilers thread about a column regarding their cap, it became a Leafs bash fest for no reason.
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Stop crying. Nobody cares if they were awful on the Leafs, that doesn't mean they are awful now. Barrie's only awful time in his entire career was in Toronto. Ceci struggled for a year in Ottawa when they tried to elevate him beyond what he was capable of, and he was bad in Toronto. He was fine in Pittsburgh, and he's been fine in Edmonton. What they did in Toronto was so long ago that it doesn't matter anymore.
 
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Campbell isn’t anything special. They’re a borderline top-5 contender with or without him. He doesn’t move the needle much on his own.
 

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80% of this thread is wishful/hopeful desperation from haters that Campbell is going to fail in his new role. Won’t happen. He’ll be better as an Oiler than he was as a Leaf, which should be no surprise to anyone as that happens to everyone who leaves that shitty franchise.
 
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