Player Discussion Anton Forsberg
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Last night, we're on the road, 2nd game of a back to back, we score 4 against a legit cup contender, only giving up 24 shots. We lose. The goaltending is just not good enough to have a chance
Forsberg has appeared in 11 games, started 10. In the 10 he's started, he's 5-5. In the 5 wins, he has a .953 save percentage. That's an outta this world number. In the 5 losses, he has a .765 save percentage. That's simply not good enough.
When you dig a bit deeper in his 5 losses, the numbers are pretty bad. The actual goals against versus expected goals against is -12.12. So in those 5 losses, he's given up 12 more goals than expected. And we've scored 16 goals in those games, or 3.2 a game. Anton is not suffering from a lack of scoring when he is in net. 4 of the 5 games we have scored 3 + goals. Twice he's lost with us having scored 4.
We're 3 games under .500. If we win 3 of those games, which were all winnable, we are 3 games over 500. With nothing else changing. All the same issues with DJ that people talk about. All the same issues with clearing our end up and so on. When you look at each game individually and the xGA versus actual, the gap is enough for us to win 4 of the 5. Not only did we not win any of them, we didn't even get a loser point.
If you go with a 50/32 split on your goaltending....and Forsberg's numbers stay the same, you're looking at 0-16 because in 50% of his starts, he's simply not playing well enough to give you a chance. It's nearly impossible to start with a 16 game deficit and make the playoffs.
If you go and look at the games he's won, he's definitely having a positive impact individually. His actual goals against versus xGA is negative in all 5 games but, cumulatively, the team has a positive expected goals number of 1.93 in those 5 games and had a positive number in 4 of 5. So he's playing well, but the team in front of him is deserving to win the games he's winning. The only game in which we had a negative expected goals figure was the Washington 6-1 blowout. Forsberg played well, but Washington was having goalie issues that night.
The bottom line is it doesn't matter what you fix on this team.....if you have a guy that you are expecting to put in the net 30 times a year and he's averaging more than 2 goals against above expected, you're f***ed.
Forsberg has appeared in 11 games, started 10. In the 10 he's started, he's 5-5. In the 5 wins, he has a .953 save percentage. That's an outta this world number. In the 5 losses, he has a .765 save percentage. That's simply not good enough.
When you dig a bit deeper in his 5 losses, the numbers are pretty bad. The actual goals against versus expected goals against is -12.12. So in those 5 losses, he's given up 12 more goals than expected. And we've scored 16 goals in those games, or 3.2 a game. Anton is not suffering from a lack of scoring when he is in net. 4 of the 5 games we have scored 3 + goals. Twice he's lost with us having scored 4.
We're 3 games under .500. If we win 3 of those games, which were all winnable, we are 3 games over 500. With nothing else changing. All the same issues with DJ that people talk about. All the same issues with clearing our end up and so on. When you look at each game individually and the xGA versus actual, the gap is enough for us to win 4 of the 5. Not only did we not win any of them, we didn't even get a loser point.
If you go with a 50/32 split on your goaltending....and Forsberg's numbers stay the same, you're looking at 0-16 because in 50% of his starts, he's simply not playing well enough to give you a chance. It's nearly impossible to start with a 16 game deficit and make the playoffs.
If you go and look at the games he's won, he's definitely having a positive impact individually. His actual goals against versus xGA is negative in all 5 games but, cumulatively, the team has a positive expected goals number of 1.93 in those 5 games and had a positive number in 4 of 5. So he's playing well, but the team in front of him is deserving to win the games he's winning. The only game in which we had a negative expected goals figure was the Washington 6-1 blowout. Forsberg played well, but Washington was having goalie issues that night.
The bottom line is it doesn't matter what you fix on this team.....if you have a guy that you are expecting to put in the net 30 times a year and he's averaging more than 2 goals against above expected, you're f***ed.
all those stats above came from Natural Stat Trick.
If you look at money puck stats, Forsberg has -8.7 goals saved above expected. So the numbers are slightly different than the Natural Stat trick numbers. But another way to look at it is 79 goalies have started this year and Anton is 77th in this stat.
And if you look at the numbers based on a goalie having played 10 games, he's the worst in the league. 3rd worst if you look at goalies that have played 5 games.
If you look at money puck stats, Forsberg has -8.7 goals saved above expected. So the numbers are slightly different than the Natural Stat trick numbers. But another way to look at it is 79 goalies have started this year and Anton is 77th in this stat.
And if you look at the numbers based on a goalie having played 10 games, he's the worst in the league. 3rd worst if you look at goalies that have played 5 games.
CanadianHockey
Smith - Alfie
I'm sure most goalies would have a below average expected GA if you only looked at their losses. How significantly different is Forsberg's xGA in losses compared to other goalies? I don't doubt that he's not a stud at this point but how much worse is he then other options
Of goalies in team history to start at least 10 games in a season, his .876 sv% currently ranks 62nd out of 68. The guys in 63-68 are all from the first few years of the franchise's existence. Think about how f***ing putrid you have to be to find yourself in those ranks.
People keep talking about systems and whatever else but there's just no system in hockey that can overcome those kinds of numbers.
I'm honestly at a loss for words for what I'm watching. This guy's brain is broken. We might be watching his career come to an end.
People keep talking about systems and whatever else but there's just no system in hockey that can overcome those kinds of numbers.
I'm honestly at a loss for words for what I'm watching. This guy's brain is broken. We might be watching his career come to an end.
It's not an issue of expected goals against in losses. It's an issue of the actual number of goals he let in versus what is expected. And it's bad. It's more than 2 goals a game in those losses. And just looking at last night, those 2 soft goals, which is his average in lost games, cost us the game.
Now, you want to go saves above expected? The Heiskenan goal was a good one. Can't really fault Forsberg there. But it sure would have been nice to have sat in my chair and said "nice save"
If anyone wants to examine the data and come to a different conclusion....have at it. I'm all ears.
One could argue that xGF and xGA are bullshit to begin with. That's probably the best defence against the stats.
SpezDispenser
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- Aug 15, 2007
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We appear to have 2 goalies who are either lights out good or terrible. Basically the definition of 2 backups. Huzzah!
My prediction is one of our goalies has an injury in the 2-6 week range and Sogaard comes up and stakes his claim to be on the roster next year or sooner.
The 3rd Dallas goal, their shorty tap-in, was sooo beer league. His VH posture, imo, showed a lapse in attention to detail, in urgency, in effort. Coupled with Stu being stuck defending poorly against the wide drive, it's the Sen's problem in a nutshell. Every team gives up short-handed rushes. Every team allows occasional high-danger shots. When it happens, our defensive guard seems to be down or disorganized. And I'd apply that characterization to the goalies as well as the players.
HoweHullOrr
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- Oct 3, 2013
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Forsberg or our goaltending in general hasn't been good. Even if we are able to fix that problem, there's still lots of other work to be done to turn this into a team that can actually win anything of substance.
If the Sens had NHL level defense being played, our goalies would look stellar. Goaltending looks bad because our defensive play is atrocious.
Defending poorly? What the hell do you want him to do? The initial shot was a backhand from 6 inches off the goal line
bert
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- Nov 11, 2002
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Gotta be pretty bad. Personally I have no confidence in him and I am truly pulling for him. Literally every shot feels like it's going in. If I am feeling like that then what are the players thinking? Player performance and confidence derives from their goaltender. Knowing if they make a mistake he can save their ass. When you can't play like that it effects a team a great deal.
I'd be sending him down to get his confidence back. He looks so nervous, personally don't think they can start him right now.
It's a combination of both. The 2nd and 3rd goals last game simply cannot go in. Back breaking goals at bad times. The 2nd goal against the leafs cannot go in. The 4th goal against the Islanders hit the middle of the net. That is a crazy amount of can't go in goals in for an NHL goalie in a very short period of time.
Is it really a combo of both? That's kind of hard to tell. Forsberg is letting in goals left and right that have no business going in. To your point, it f***s with your confidence. How does that lack of confidence impact play?
Natural stat trick as of today says we are 9th in the league in expected goals against. Boston, who most here regard as an excellent defensive team, is 15th. Let that sink in for a second. There's either something terribly wrong with that statistic OR we're giving up less shots / shots from less dangerous areas than Boston.
If you're DJ Smith, you've got your team top 10 in expected goals against and 13th in expected goals for. Being comfortably in the top half of both stats should have you comfortably in the playoffs. But we're not close. What's Staois supposed to do?
At this point, to me DJ looks like a defeated man. But this thing doesn't turn around unless we start getting some saves.
Stuetzle is a forward playing D with a guy coming at him that's generated 100 feet of speed. He forced the puck carrier to the backhand. Shit taken from 6 inches off the line. Frankly if that puck doesn't go in, and it shouldn't have, someone is showing it as an example of how to angle a guy off and make him shoot from nowhere. That puck just can't go in from there
Alex1234
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- Oct 14, 2014
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Talbot,Murray and Helberg are UFA at the end of this season
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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Golden_Jet
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You don’t think AF should of saved that, he made him shoot from an impossible angle, that should never go in.
Agreed on Forsberg’s part. But Stu should have tied up or boxed out the front after the first shot. And even despite getting some slack for being a forward… a young forward… his anticipation defensively at the start of the wide drive was amateur. I would describe his effort as lackadaisical.
I do think AF should have saved that and not been in such a house league posture. I also think Stu took the rush for granted.
inthewings
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- Jul 26, 2005
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I don't even know how to evaluate Forsberg. Talbot is a Vezina candidate in LA, and Gustavsson was at Vezina level last year and has been on an absolute heater after a slow start. Both looked like AHL fodder here behind our swiss cheese D.
bert
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Yeah its both theres blame to go around for everyone. Its not only the goalies it chamges from game to game. It's not hard to see how disorganized this team is in their own zone when they start scrambling. They're also horrible at protecting the house. You don't need advanced stats to see it. While they can help they should never been the final method of evaluation. They can be too easily cherry picked and manipulated. Not every chance is the same which is not measured as accurately as needed.
They need saves, they need guys to be tighter and harder in key moments. After a goal scored by either team. Starting and ending periods. They're bad as a group for momentum changing moments in games.
This team clearly needs a new voice. DJ was the right coach for the first 3/4 seasons. Alot of these guys need a wake up call from an accountability standpoint.
That Swiss cheese D includes the 3Fs too, right?
Our Fs are collapsing to the front of the net/slot when they back check and then they watch the puck. They are not being coached to take a man. We need better coaching to teach them how to play without the puck, particularly in our D zone. That would cut down on the shots and goals against. However, our goaltenders are also part of the problem, particularly Forsberg.
I agreed with everything you said up to where you said "DJ was the right coach for the first 3/4 seasons". I don't think he was. We should have hired a coach with NHL experience. We went the cheap route. Again.
