Confirmed with Link: Andy Greene Contract Extension (Five years, $5 million per)

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

you can choose not to look at stats, but that doesn't make them meaningless.

 

[AfroThunder396]

excuse me but what the heck does that mean ??? doesn't take a rocket scientist to know how good of a defensive defenceman he is and I didn't need any BS stat to come to that conclusion.

Basically, it's looking at what would happen to our goal differential if we replaced Greene with a statistically average player. There's an offensive, defensive, shootout, and total version of the stat. The defensive version weighs shot prevention, goal differential, ice time, and other stats to determine the amount of goals prevented by one player vs what you would expect from your Average Joe hockey player.

The DGVT stat suggest that if we had replaced Greene with an "average" defenseman, would would have allowed about 9 more goals last season than we would have with Greene in the lineup. Which may not seem like a lot, but based on this metric it's the best defensive contribution any player in the NHL made to his team last season (and the year before as well).

The Offensive GVT says Greene is responsible for generating 4 more goals than a replacement player. Add them together and Greene by himself was directly responsible for a ~13 goal differential (12.6 exactly, rounding up). For comparison, that's that's the T-9th for defenseman and T-44th among all skaters in the league. Tied with Brent Seabrook, although Seabrook had a higher offensive impact and a lower defensive one to arrive at the same number.

Jagr had the highest GVT on the team - his offense was ~10 goals higher than the average player, his defense was very surprisingly ~5 goals lower, but he lost a goal due to shootout failure. He was the 32nd best skater (26th forward) in the league last season based on GVT. Jagr had a slightly better season than Pat Kane did based on this metric (13.6 vs 13.5).

 

[ajdevjet]

you can choose not to look at stats, but that doesn't make them meaningless.

imagine if someone came out in the middle if an argument when talking about Greene and the person brought up that "threshold stat" ........ I would never take that person seriously again.....just sayin

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

imagine if someone came out in the middle if an argument when talking about Greene and the person brought up that "threshold stat" ........ I would never take that person seriously again.....just sayin

why, because they are more informed on the matter than you?

that makes no sense.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

imagine if someone came out in the middle if an argument when talking about Greene and the person brought up that "threshold stat" ........ I would never take that person seriously again.....just sayin

You're free to believe what you want, but successful NHL front offices (Los Angeles and Chicago in particular) are now building their teams largely based off their own in-house versions of advanced statistics. The advanced stats we have now are imperfect (and the ones publicly available are almost certainly worse than the ones the NHL teams keep to themselves), but you are leaving a gap in your knowledge of hockey players by ignoring them entirely.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

oh another meaningless, BS stat that some nerd in a basement made up, thanks for the explanation.

Why do you get so offended when people use advanced stats?

 

[ajdevjet]

Basically, it's looking at what would happen to our goal differential if we replaced Greene with a statistically average player. There's an offensive, defensive, shootout, and total version of the stat. The defensive version weighs shot prevention, goal differential, ice time, and other stats to determine the amount of goals prevented by one player vs what you would expect from your Average Joe hockey player.

The DGVT stat suggest that if we had replaced Greene with an "average" defenseman, would would have allowed about 9 more goals last season than we would have with Greene in the lineup. Which may not seem like a lot, but based on this metric it's the best defensive contribution any player in the NHL made to his team last season (and the year before as well).

The Offensive GVT says Greene is responsible for generating 4 more goals than a replacement player. Add them together and Greene by himself was directly responsible for a ~13 goal differential (12.6 exactly, rounding up). For comparison, that's that's the T-9th for defenseman and T-44th among all skaters in the league. Tied with Brent Seabrook, although Seabrook had a higher offensive impact and a lower defensive one to arrive at the same number.

Jagr had the highest GVT on the team - his offense was ~10 goals higher than the average player, his defense was very surprisingly ~5 goals lower, but he lost a goal due to shootout failure. He was the 32nd best skater (26th forward) in the league last season based on GVT. Jagr had a slightly better season than Pat Kane did based on this metric (13.6 vs 13.5).

thank you the more detailed definition but in all honesty its still a BS stat that to me proves nothing

 

[devilsblood]

It what sense? Remember, at this point in his career Greene's value to NJ is a lot higher than if he was on say the Sharks or the Kings. Either way, he signed a great deal and got rewarded with the security that he won't be traded.

based on what?

hes a top 30 DMan in the league and we just signed him for below market value.

Look Greene is a good player, I'm not saying otherwise, and no doubt he signed a team favorable deal, but I remember the #'s guys were throwing around on here during the season. Way more then I thought, and way more then what he actually signed at.

 

[ajdevjet]

You're free to believe what you want, but successful NHL front offices (Los Angeles and Chicago in particular) are now building their teams largely based off their own in-house versions of advanced statistics. The advanced stats we have now are imperfect (and the ones publicly available are almost certainly worse than the ones the NHL teams keep to themselves), but you are leaving a gap in your knowledge of hockey players by ignoring them entirely.

you hit it right on the head "NHL front offices" not fans , it's fine for coaches and general managers to use these numbers but in my opinion when a fan brings them up it seems like they are trying way too hard to say "I know more than you " when they probably don't.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

you hit it right on the head "NHL front offices" not fans , it's fine for coaches and general managers to use these numbers but in my opinion when a fan brings them up it seems like they are trying way too hard to say "I know more than you " when they probably don't.

if they know the stats and know why and how they are used, then they do know more than you.

 

[ajdevjet]

Why do you get so offended when people use advanced stats?

I get that way when fans use them..... NHL general managers, coaches and scouts should be the only people who study these "advanced stats" but when a fan brings them up it seems hilarious to me......no offense to you or zajac or Jim or anyone else who wants to use them for debating proposes, I choose not to thats all.

 

[ajdevjet]

if they know the stats and know why and how they are used, then they do know more than you.

keep telling yourself that and I'll just keep being a fan and trusting what my own eyes see.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

keep telling yourself that and I'll just keep being a fan and trusting what my own eyes see.

no one is saying to 100% completely rely on stats. We are advocating for the use of stats to back up what you are seeing.

that is the mistake people like you make.

let me guess, you think Wins for pitchers in baseball are the most important stat?

 

[R8Devs]

Glad the term wasn't as long as I thought it might be. Great AAV too. Contract will take him through his 37 year old season. But since he started in the NHL a bit later maybe we won't see that big of a decline if there is any at all.

But I kinda hope Henrique becomes the captain. Not that I mind Greene being the captain but just would be cool to Henrique with the C.

 

[ajdevjet]

no one is saying to 100% completely rely on stats. We are advocating for the use of stats to back up what you are seeing.

that is the mistake people like you make.

let me guess, you think Wins for pitchers in baseball are the most important stat?

if a fan needs advanced stats to back up what they are seeing then chances are they don't understand the game too well. "people like me" ??? you dont know me to make a comment like that.

 

[devilsblood]

if a fan needs advanced stats to back up what they are seeing then chances are they don't understand the game too well. "people like me" ??? you dont know me to make a comment like that. Who are you ? ....no one

How does this pertain to fans but not team mgmt?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

if a fan needs advanced stats to back up what they are seeing then chances are they don't understand the game too well. "people like me" ??? you dont know me to make a comment like that.

thats the most ass backwards comment I've read on here in awhile

and you don't know the people bringing up the stats, yet you are saying if they do you completely dismiss what they have to say. so which is it?

 

[ajdevjet]

How does this pertain to fans but not team mgmt?

teams get paid to do all of this research, it's their job, do you think a coach is watching the games like we are ? that's why they watch video and study these "advanced stats", Im just calling it like I see it...when a fan starts to bust out these ridiculous stats just to back up what they just saw with their own two eyes I dont take them seriously...sorry to offend the forum but Im just being honest.

 

[ajdevjet]

thats the most ass backwards comment I've read on here in awhile

and you don't know the people bringing up the stats, yet you are saying if they do you completely dismiss what they have to say. so which is it?

all I'm saying is that when "FANS" bring up advanced stats they are trying too hard. NHL personnel is a different story.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I just don't understand how wanting to know more about different statistics (if you actually know what they mean) is "Trying too hard"

 

[MoonDragn]

Think of Greene as someone who is moving closer to Lidstrom every day. He has a high hockey IQ and mostly uses his stick and position to limit opponent's chances. He usually gets the pucks out and will sometime use his body instead of the stick. He skates well and has a good hard shot and good speed. His stick handling is good as well going on the offense.

Lidstrom-lite is well worth it. I suspect Greene has not reached his peak yet either. Look for him to get better every year.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Think if Greene as someone who is moving closer to Lidstrom every day. He has a high hockey IQ and mostly uses his stick and position to limit opponent's chances. He usually gets the pucks out and will sometime use his body instead of the stick.

Lidstrom-lite is well worth it. I suspect Greene has not reached his peak yet either. Look for him to get better every year.

yea, lets pump the brakes a bit there.

 

[ajdevjet]

Think of Greene as someone who is moving closer to Lidstrom every day. He has a high hockey IQ and mostly uses his stick and position to limit opponent's chances. He usually gets the pucks out and will sometime use his body instead of the stick. He skates well and has a good hard shot and good speed. His stick handling is good as well going on the offense.

Lidstrom-lite is well worth it. I suspect Greene has not reached his peak yet either. Look for him to get better every year.

yea, lets pump the brakes a bit there.

who has a better goal threshold ??? Greene or Lidstrom ?

 

[devilsblood]

Maybe I'm not as smart as you guys, silly me for choosing to simply watch the games and form my own opinion and not need advanced stats to back that opinion up.....what was I thinking ???

But why are you mocking those that see advanced stats as a useful evaluation tool?

 

[ajdevjet]

But why are you mocking those that see advanced stats as a useful evaluation tool?

you are right , I shouldn't have done that, I did not mean to offend, my bad