Andersen decision looming for Leafs

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Sorry you cant blame andersen for columbus sorry, yes korlisalo looking better but just look what kind of scoring chance of shot he faced. For of them outside shot with no circulation in front, no rebound to stop. Yes he faced really good job an was amaizing but he was perfectly protected.

What kind of shot andersen faced? Breakaway, 2v1, 3 on 2, screen shot, deflection, rebound.

So yes stastistically, korpisalo was better but at he end he was also the one with the better protection in front of him too. So that the end for me, korpisalo never outplayed andersen but columbus d outplayed leafs d and it looks andersen worse than it actually is

This is actually incorrect, please don't spread this misinformation.

Leafs generated a ton of chances up close.

Look how well Columbus kept out teams during the regular season

upload_2020-12-18_12-10-54.png


Now look at where the Leafs were able to penetrate

upload_2020-12-18_12-11-45.png


They did not keep the Leafs to the outside, and got insane goaltending.

upload_2020-12-18_12-13-55.png
 
I understand what you are saying, but I wonder, who is going to be available, who is better? Sure, he's 0-8, and in those deciding games, we've averaged 1.5 goals for per game. 1.5 goals per game isn't good enough either. I also think over use is a problem, as he fades down the stretch. With Campbell, and a shorter season, maybe that is alleviated. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly are also 0-8, so there is that too. I'm all for giving Campbell a chance to run with it, and see if he can be as good. I'm all for running Campbell/Dell, if they can prove capable. I'm all for moving Andersen, if we can get an asset back, if he isn't our best option. I'm not sure who his replacement would be at this point. Thoughts?

That being said, if Campbell and Dell aren't good enough, we have to run with Andersen, and let chips fall where they may. Short leash though, if he let's in soft goals, make a change. If we can upgrade, or make a change in the offseason, because HE IS THE PROBLEM, let's do so... but again, who?

Campbell already looked better to me.
 
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This is actually incorrect, please don't spread this misinformation.

Leafs generated a ton of chances up close.

Look how well Columbus kept out teams during the regular season

View attachment 379441

Now look at where the Leafs were able to penetrate

View attachment 379442

They did not keep the Leafs to the outside, and got insane goaltending.

View attachment 379446

Yep. In other words, the Leafs got out-goaltended yet again. Sorry to the apologists but sometimes your goalie needs to win a series all by himself. It's a thing.
 
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This is actually incorrect, please don't spread this misinformation.

Leafs generated a ton of chances up close.

Look how well Columbus kept out teams during the regular season

View attachment 379441

Now look at where the Leafs were able to penetrate

View attachment 379442

They did not keep the Leafs to the outside, and got insane goaltending.

View attachment 379446

Great graphic... It's kind of funny seeing how well Reimer did.
 
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Can we stop pretending Campbell can be the #1 guy,the man is almost 29 he hasn't even played 70 career games

That's fine for a backup that's not a #1 guy

Campbell as an NHL could happen but it's unlikely to happen. Goalies "getting it" later in their career has happened before although it seldom happens to conventional goalies. I'd say him going completely south is just as likely.
 
Sorry you cant blame andersen for columbus sorry, yes korlisalo looking better but just look what kind of scoring chance of shot he faced. For of them outside shot with no circulation in front, no rebound to stop. Yes he faced really good job an was amaizing but he was perfectly protected.

What kind of shot andersen faced? Breakaway, 2v1, 3 on 2, screen shot, deflection, rebound.

So yes stastistically, korpisalo was better but at he end he was also the one with the better protection in front of him too. So that the end for me, korpisalo never outplayed andersen but columbus d outplayed leafs d and it looks andersen worse than it actually is
Watch game 1 over again. then watch it twice. What you are saying is just not da truth. Watch da Korpisalo save off of Matty, then Mitch's chance and best of all watch da save on Tavares. After you see those 3 saves in game 1 which were HIGHLIGHT REEL 10 bellers bar none then show me 1 chance CLB had was was even remotely close to any of those 3 chances. Truth is it was a complete beat down Korpisalo over Andersen. Then watch da CLB floater goal to win 1-0. It had NOTHING TO DO WITH STATS. 1 goaler was just flat out better thsan another goaler. Like a AAA kid against a houseleaguer.
 
This is actually incorrect, please don't spread this misinformation.

Leafs generated a ton of chances up close.

Look how well Columbus kept out teams during the regular season

View attachment 379441

Now look at where the Leafs were able to penetrate

View attachment 379442

They did not keep the Leafs to the outside, and got insane goaltending.

View attachment 379446

Everything can't be calculated and thats why a pro avanced statistic like chaykra was awfull and now fired. Yes what was really the quality of those shot, a missed shot still considerated a high danger shot the same way from a perfect one timer shot on a 2v1

What did choose 10 weak shot from dangerous area because leafs player didn't have any time to took good shot or 4 perfect one timer shot (praticly impossible to stop) because columbus had all he time they want to shoot. what is really the most difficult at the end. Yes the 10 shot on paper will looking harder but at the end, it is the truth?
 
Watch game 1 over again. then watch it twice. What you are saying is just not da truth. Watch da Korpisalo save off of Matty, then Mitch's chance and best of all watch da save on Tavares. After you see those 3 saves in game 1 which were HIGHLIGHT REEL 10 bellers bar none then show me 1 chance CLB had was was even remotely close to any of those 3 chances. Truth is it was a complete beat down Korpisalo over Andersen. Then watch da CLB floater goal to win 1-0. It had NOTHING TO DO WITH STATS. 1 goaler was just flat out better thsan another goaler. Like a AAA kid against a houseleaguer.

You talk about 1 game, but in general how long leafs player had to shoot vs columbus player. In general toronto had less than a second to take a shot before being block or deflected, columbus had like 3-4-5-6 second in general. Still not the same challenge for a goalie being innperfect position 1 second or 5. I not telling korpisalo wasn't good, just tellin your overeacting about andersen playoff. Leafs didn't loose in front of the net, they loose because they allowed too many time to take good shot so they loose because of their dman being too passive or out of position
 
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Everything can't be calculated and thats why a pro avanced statistic like chaykra was awfull and now fired. Yes what was really the quality of those shot, a missed shot still considerated a high danger shot the same way from a perfect one timer shot on a 2v1

What did choose 10 weak shot from dangerous area because leafs player didn't have any time to took good shot or 4 perfect one timer shot (praticly impossible to stop) because columbus had all he time they want to shoot. what is really the most difficult at the end. Yes the 10 shot on paper will looking harder but at the end, it is the truth?

I agree. Any way you slice it the Jackets played really good defensive hockey against the leafs.
 
I agree. Any way you slice it the Jackets played really good defensive hockey against the leafs.

Yup.

We got beat, the team needs to play better, top to bottom, to be winners. We need more from our goaltending, we need more from our defense, we need more from our forwards. Goaltending is a funny thing, and any goalie could come steal the top job, at any time... Obviously with a proven track record, you expect your number one guy, to be that number one. Sure, it's Andersen's job to lose, but it's not unheard of, for that job to be stolen away by another goalie... just let the best guy play, whoever he is, no matter how many games they've played so far.

That's the funny thing. You've got kids here posting, about people claiming Campbell can be our #1, which nobody is doing... they are just saying, if he plays better, and steals the job, so be it. Same with Dell, or Woll, or.... They might be small probabilities, but let the best guy keep the net.
 
Good goalie, his struggles are blown out of proportion; high expectations and a big spotlight, mistakes get highlighted. That Columbus series he got outplayed by goalie(s) that stood on their head. He played good enough for a team to win in front of him; he didn't blow it anymore than the team in front of him. Should keep him as our own rental. Lehner's 5m or less should be the comparable for short term, otherwise let him walk. If they need too make room for him then move Kerfoot for something cheaper to keep a starting goalie, unless there's some great deal on the table; gotta win now and you need a goalie to do it.

Expansion draft might open some trade possibilities, maybe we grab Demko or Holtby from Vancouver...

I think goalies like Binnington and Murray got overhyped and overrated way too quick. Their cup winning playoff performances weren't stellar, they were solid, good enough to win behind a good team that's had goalie issues in the past (Fleury choking, Allen). If they slump they could go from overrated to underrated pretty quick like Jonathan Toews; Matt Murray might already be on his way there.
 
Everything can't be calculated and thats why a pro avanced statistic like chaykra was awfull and now fired. Yes what was really the quality of those shot, a missed shot still considerated a high danger shot the same way from a perfect one timer shot on a 2v1

What did choose 10 weak shot from dangerous area because leafs player didn't have any time to took good shot or 4 perfect one timer shot (praticly impossible to stop) because columbus had all he time they want to shoot. what is really the most difficult at the end. Yes the 10 shot on paper will looking harder but at the end, it is the truth?
I don't even believe in stats at all. I totally go off of my eye test. I realize that there are times when that causes errors in judgement but again rewatch game 1. Matty's 2 chances in 2nd, Mitch's chance in 1st and JT's chance in 3rd were all directly in front of Korpisalo with no one in between. All were in kill zone blue ice. All where Korpisalo had to make a quick and great move to get to puck to make save ie. no one hit him in chest with any of those 3 chances. They were all prime time 10 beller chances. None of shots were flubbed. All 3 should have been expected goals. We should have been winning 3-0. But Korpisalo played superman and made 3 saves which even Price does not make. Matty scores those 2 almost every single time and he made great shots on both chances but got completely stoned. The one where Korpisalo comes across net in splits and grabs blast with his glove in top corner common man that was by FAR best save of da entire playoffs of any series. And all we asked of our guy is to make da regular normal ho hum everyday save which he missed one. 1 softie and that's game. I suggest you truly watch game over again. This was blatantly obvious. Sure he made a good follow on da Dubois breakaway but honest he went to his backhand and tried to deke and shove it under pad. Yes it was a breakaway but it was a standard save. There was a great chance late in 2nd where he came across crease and made a 10 beller on da forehand. I stood up and applauded just like you did. But it was 1 10 beller save. Korpisalo made 3 of those.
 
Yup.

We got beat, the team needs to play better, top to bottom, to be winners. We need more from our goaltending, we need more from our defense, we need more from our forwards. Goaltending is a funny thing, and any goalie could come steal the top job, at any time... Obviously with a proven track record, you expect your number one guy, to be that number one. Sure, it's Andersen's job to lose, but it's not unheard of, for that job to be stolen away by another goalie... just let the best guy play, whoever he is, no matter how many games they've played so far.

That's the funny thing. You've got kids here posting, about people claiming Campbell can be our #1, which nobody is doing... they are just saying, if he plays better, and steals the job, so be it. Same with Dell, or Woll, or.... They might be small probabilities, but let the best guy keep the net.

Goaltending is weird, you really gotta role with who's hot. Remember that Latvian AHL goalie that almost beat team Canada at the Olympics. They had to have him pass out to beat him. For that reason I find it tricky to commit to a goalie long term with $$. Bobrovsky just did the opposite of what he was supposed to last season, you don't see that with players to the same extent.
 
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You talk about 1 game, but in general how long leafs player had to shoot vs columbus player. In general toronto had less than a second to take a shot before being block or deflected, columbus had like 3-4-5-6 second in general. Still not the same challenge for a goalie being innperfect position 1 second or 5. I not telling korpisalo wasn't good, just tellin your overeacting about andersen playoff. Leafs didn't loose in front of the net, they loose because they allowed too many time to take good shot so they loose because of their dman being too passive or out of position
I thought CLB played better than we did in game 1 that we can agree on. But bottom line we had da better prime time chances to score and we got stoned. And Korpisalo stoned are best 3 guys. Freddy made 1 save where you jumped out of your seat in 2nd in front of net. That deserved much praise. It should have been 3-1 us after 2 periods. Even if he lets in da softie we win 3-2. No one give 2 sh*ts. We won. But Korpisalo made 3 outrageous saves and Freddy made 1 outrageous save. Then the softie. Game over.
 
Really think stats need to be interpreted with a grain of salt; even most advanced analytics aren't very accurate in representing what they attempt to. Overtime they can become more reliable though, don't think it should be ignored. The same mistake can be made undervaluing stats as overvaluing.
 
Everything can't be calculated and thats why a pro avanced statistic like chaykra was awfull and now fired. Yes what was really the quality of those shot, a missed shot still considerated a high danger shot the same way from a perfect one timer shot on a 2v1

What did choose 10 weak shot from dangerous area because leafs player didn't have any time to took good shot or 4 perfect one timer shot (praticly impossible to stop) because columbus had all he time they want to shoot. what is really the most difficult at the end. Yes the 10 shot on paper will looking harder but at the end, it is the truth?

Stats like xGA/GF factor in things like the type of shot, odd man rushes and breakaways...it's called game situation, check the video below.



And this isn't an analytic that you can really build towards, but it helps indicate just how much your team is giving up in terms of chances(or generating chances).

These take hundreds to thousands of hours to complete across the league in a season, and they've been proven to be quite telling.
 
Really think stats need to be interpreted with a grain of salt; even most advanced analytics aren't very accurate in representing what they attempt to. Overtime they can become more reliable though, don't think it should be ignored. The same mistake can be made undervaluing stats as overvaluing.

Right, the predictive analytics (Corsi, xGF etc.) are designed to require ~20 games against various opponents in order to be predictive. They aren't designed to explain who was better during a five game series against a static opponent.
 
Right, the predictive analytics (Corsi, xGF etc.) are designed to require ~20 games against various opponents in order to be predictive. They aren't designed to explain who was better during a five game series against a static opponent.

xGF/xGA against the same opponent over 5 games is telling though, especially when discrepancies are that large between them.
 
Watch game 1 over again. then watch it twice. What you are saying is just not da truth. Watch da Korpisalo save off of Matty, then Mitch's chance and best of all watch da save on Tavares. After you see those 3 saves in game 1 which were HIGHLIGHT REEL 10 bellers bar none then show me 1 chance CLB had was was even remotely close to any of those 3 chances. Truth is it was a complete beat down Korpisalo over Andersen. Then watch da CLB floater goal to win 1-0. It had NOTHING TO DO WITH STATS. 1 goaler was just flat out better thsan another goaler. Like a AAA kid against a houseleaguer.

I agree with everything you say here... I know I've repeated this a bunch of times... but, we pay some guys to be elite, and they've been shut down too many times. At some point, we can't keep saying, we got beat by a hot goalie... Why do we always face hot goalies? Why do they stop being hot, when they play the next team? These guys just have to find a way to score, and win... you know that.
 
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The real problem here isn't failure of the cap, it's failure to draft well at the position over the course of Andersen's contract. Not re-signing a non-elite player shouldn't "loom" to this degree.
 
If you heard Andersen getting dumped on by overdrive, Tim & Sid, TSN Bob Mackenzie, NHL Panel top 20 player list whatever... a lot of the time they're not actually making sense. They're there for a story, entertainment, overexaggerating. Don Cherry at least speaks his mind but he's a gongshow
 
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