Andersen decision looming for Leafs

[Martin Skoula]

I think Andersen is a very good goalie. It’s hard to thrive in the leafs system. I also feel leafs did an awful job managing his workload.

He is a huge difference maker. See his team stats vs team stats without him in net. Last two years before Campbell came we have almost no backup points.

I mean before this year, the back-up only saw the 2nd half of back to backs and injury fill-ins. Of course you're not going to get a lot of wins out of someone coming into the worst starting situation while cold.

He is a huge difference maker in both directions, that's the problem. We'd look a lot better with a steady goalie that doesn't have the 50-save shutout highs or the 3 ugly goals in 7 minutes lows.

 

[cookie]

Checking Freddy's natural stat trick's page, this year and last year were the only ones in his career where his goals against/60 was worse than his expected goals against/60 in all situation hockey. This year's Leaf defense also provided the second lowest high danger shots against per 60 that he's faced since donning the Maple Leaf. Is this an injury? A trend? Please also remember to take these "expected" figures at face value - they're based on models that have incomplete data. It could very well be that Freddy had a hard time adjusting to the kind of shots he would be facing under Keefe's coaching. Most goalies I checked also have spurts like these and relatively speaking, Freddy's been earning that $$

 

[Nineteen67]

This was foreshadowing......If the Leafs make the playoffs he can’t keep letting these in.

 

[Notsince67]

The thing that bugs me about Anderson is that to my memory, he never takes responsibility for a bad goal or bad game. He only says that everyone else needs to get better.

 

[X66]

That's foolish. He's far ahead of Campbell and Dell at this point. Killed us every playoff round? Sure, when he's let in an average of 1.5 goals in deciding games... maybe we should look at the whole team.... if you can't even score over a goal a game, with the dollars we have spent on "elite" forwards... maybe you shouldn't blame just the goalie. Noting, he's been part of the problem, but to blame him solely is ridiculous... the whole team hasn't been close to good enough.

Normally we're on the same page Fogelhund, but not on this one.

It's not even the deciding games, Andersen just lets in horrible goals at horrible times in the playoffs, I made a post the other month showing all the bad goals he's let in at key times.

What magnifies it is that they're all against elite defensive teams(Caps, Bruins x2 and Jackets) you can't give those teams the amount of softies he did.

That first Caps series, a lot of people forget that the Leafs had a legit change to be up 3-0 in that series... Andersen played AWFUL in game 1 and 3, and the Leafs were up 2-1 in the series as huge underdogs.

Then in game 6 the Leafs gave him a 1-0 lead with less than 10 minutes left, and you guessed it, awful goal to tie the game.

Bruins series the year after? Leafs gave him a lead going into the 3rd period of the game 7, and he allowed two HORRIBLE goals, one to tie and one to take the lead.

Bruins series the year after? Another horrible game 7, allowing 3 terrible goals. Rask stole game 4 for the Bruins, we needed Andersen to match that performance in at least one game, either game 6 or 7 and it didn't happen.

And then finally the play in. This was definitely more about the Leafs getting owned by the other goalie, but they weren't given much help from Andersen. He was again, the goalie that allowed more stinkers.

 

[Bomber0104]

Intreresting; what this graph basically shows is that the "overpayment dubas BS" at the expense of team balance and defense shows up on the goalie metric

Bingo.

The narrative you hear now is that the Leafs need Vezina-calibre goaltending to go anywhere...

And we need that Vezina-calibre goaltender to make peanuts too since Dubas capped us out completely.

 

[BlueForever75]

Let walk and sign Binnington to same contract. He's better and will be coming home.

 

[Primary Assist]

Considering how completely inept we were with literally any other goalie besides Freddy for 75% of the season last year, I think it's pretty safe to say he is one of the most important, if not the most important, player on the roster.

I also don't understand the hate on that Atkinson goal when Freddy stood on his head the entire game and our offense gave us nothing. If Nylander blew that shot past Korpisalo nobody would be crucifying the goalie, and Atkinson is a significantly better goal scorer than Willie.

 

[BlueForever75]

Considering how completely inept we were with literally any other goalie besides Freddy for 75% of the season last year, I think it's pretty safe to say he is one of the most important, if not the most important, player on the roster.

I also don't understand the hate on that Atkinson goal when Freddy stood on his head the entire game and our offense gave us nothing. If Nylander blew that shot past Korpisalo nobody would be crucifying the goalie, and Atkinson is a significantly better goal scorer than Willie.

I agreed with everything you said, but the fact of the matter is that premier goalies stand on their head when it counts. Freddie hasnt proven that. Yes he has been phenomenal through long stretches. But its those crucial goals that he lets in at the most horrible time that breaks the back of the team and in turn the hearts of us the fans.

Maybe that is the object of being tired or the defense playing in front of him. Most likely both. But if you remember when we had goalies like Joseph or Belfour, our D was nothing great defensively. But they stood on their heads when it counted. I'm just not too sure what we have in Andersen night in and night out. He's inconsistent when it matters.

As for your last point, Atkinson is not a better goal scorer then Willie. Two different players. One looks to score first the other looks to setup. If Nylander shot 15% more of the times rather then looking for his linemates he would have way more goals then Atkinson. Just saying. He's a way more skilled player

 

[Leafs87]

I mean before this year, the back-up only saw the 2nd half of back to backs and injury fill-ins. Of course you're not going to get a lot of wins out of someone coming into the worst starting situation while cold.

He is a huge difference maker in both directions, that's the problem. We'd look a lot better with a steady goalie that doesn't have the 50-save shutout highs or the 3 ugly goals in 7 minutes lows.

Yeah that’s what I meant by workload management. As much as it hurt the team, it also put a lot of strain on Andersen.

I agree with your point. I don’t agree that if we let Andersen go we will find an equivalent or even upgrade G. If Andersen takes a sweetheart deal, leafs should sign him IMO.

Before Andersen came it was almost 15 years back we had a legitimate starter before. I don’t think finding a good goalie is as easy as some make it seem. UFA next year? Rask, who quit on his team. Raanta,Lupul level injury history and to me anyways never proved to be a starter fully. Binnington, I don’t see him leaving STL and I also think he regressed a lot after his cup win.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

That's foolish. He's far ahead of Campbell and Dell at this point. Killed us every playoff round? Sure, when he's let in an average of 1.5 goals in deciding games... maybe we should look at the whole team.... if you can't even score over a goal a game, with the dollars we have spent on "elite" forwards... maybe you shouldn't blame just the goalie. Noting, he's been part of the problem, but to blame him solely is ridiculous... the whole team hasn't been close to good enough.

Freddy is a good guy, one of those guys who can crush it 300 yards but a horribly crappy putter, but a nice down to earth guy. But EVERY single game where he has to beat da other goaler in a playoff game he gets outplayed. Now Korpisalo was outstanding in game 1 I mean over da top brilliant with like 5-7 10 bellers to keep CBJ's in game. But even a peewee AAA goaler gets pulled when you give up a floater wrister unscreened from top of circle outside kill zone between your arm and chest protector in a 0-0 game where your team is far better. Da guy is not clutch. There are just some guys, most of us, who can't make it happen when it counts. Freddy is one of those guys 0-8. It is time to move on. Losers lose. Get what we can for him. Like to get our late 1st rounder back.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

The only goal he allowed in Game 1 during the 3rd period when the score was still 0-0 was a bad one and a shot he needs to stop 100% of the time.





I also hated the second goal he allowed in Game 5, even if the Leafs screwed up on their line change right before it happened.



Finally 1 year earlier in Game 7 against Boston, he allowed a bad goal in the 1st period to give Boston a 1-0 lead.

Remember when he inexplicably stood up because he couldn't find the puck under his pads against Washington (Game 2 I think)? Resulted in an easy poke-in in yet another close playoff game.

He chokes in key situations. Hard to understand why anyone can't see that.

 

[Fogelhund]

Freddy is a good guy, one of those guys who can crush it 300 yards but a horribly crappy putter, but a nice down to earth guy. But EVERY single game where he has to beat da other goaler in a playoff game he gets outplayed. Now Korpisalo was outstanding in game 1 I mean over da top brilliant with like 5-7 10 bellers to keep CBJ's in game. But even a peewee AAA goaler gets pulled when you give up a floater wrister unscreened from top of circle outside kill zone between your arm and chest protector in a 0-0 game where your team is far better. Da guy is not clutch. There are just some guys, most of us, who can't make it happen when it counts. Freddy is one of those guys 0-8. It is time to move on. Losers lose. Get what we can for him. Like to get our late 1st rounder back.

I understand what you are saying, but I wonder, who is going to be available, who is better? Sure, he's 0-8, and in those deciding games, we've averaged 1.5 goals for per game. 1.5 goals per game isn't good enough either. I also think over use is a problem, as he fades down the stretch. With Campbell, and a shorter season, maybe that is alleviated. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly are also 0-8, so there is that too. I'm all for giving Campbell a chance to run with it, and see if he can be as good. I'm all for running Campbell/Dell, if they can prove capable. I'm all for moving Andersen, if we can get an asset back, if he isn't our best option. I'm not sure who his replacement would be at this point. Thoughts?

That being said, if Campbell and Dell aren't good enough, we have to run with Andersen, and let chips fall where they may. Short leash though, if he let's in soft goals, make a change. If we can upgrade, or make a change in the offseason, because HE IS THE PROBLEM, let's do so... but again, who?

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don’t blame him for the playoff losses, but if the Leafs don’t win a round in 2021 I let him walk.

 

[Voodoo Child]

I can acknowledge that he hasn't been the best when we've needed him, but also that we don't have someone right up to replace him.

Campbell is good maybe playing 30 games but I don't think he can handle full starter duties, and Woll and Scott, if they even make it, are 2-3 years away.

If he can steal us a series this year I go 7x4. If he falters I go 7x1 or risk letting him walk.

 

[LeafGrief]

We'll either re-sign him next offseason (probably only if we win a round) or we'll sign a different goalie. Nobody is going to trade big assets for a goalie at the deadline and we're going to need someone who can tend the pipes. Maybe we make a hockey trade, but we're not ditching our starting goaltender for a 3rd round pick unless we've got another one coming in.

At this point I'm ambivalent towards Freddy. He's been good and bad, with not much in between. He's got the ability to win a series for us, but he just hasn't done it. I hope he does, but I don't really feel the need to give him any more chances at this point.

If we do get rid of Andersen, I want another legit goalie coming back in a trade or a signing. I do not want us to f*** around with Campbell or bargain bin goalies. Pay the price and get a guy who we trust to stop pucks in game 7's.

 

[justashadowof]

Do some Leafs' fans have complete amnesia about cheering on a team with mediocre to bad goaltending? It was a parade mediocrity until Andersen was acquired. Andersen is literally the best Leafs' goalie since Belfour's 1st 2 seasons with the team. A team with talent and commitment to defensive schemes would make Andersen a perennial Jennings' trophy contender.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I understand what you are saying, but I wonder, who is going to be available, who is better? Sure, he's 0-8, and in those deciding games, we've averaged 1.5 goals for per game. 1.5 goals per game isn't good enough either. I also think over use is a problem, as he fades down the stretch. With Campbell, and a shorter season, maybe that is alleviated. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly are also 0-8, so there is that too. I'm all for giving Campbell a chance to run with it, and see if he can be as good. I'm all for running Campbell/Dell, if they can prove capable. I'm all for moving Andersen, if we can get an asset back, if he isn't our best option. I'm not sure who his replacement would be at this point. Thoughts?

That being said, if Campbell and Dell aren't good enough, we have to run with Andersen, and let chips fall where they may. Short leash though, if he let's in soft goals, make a change. If we can upgrade, or make a change in the offseason, because HE IS THE PROBLEM, let's do so... but again, who?

That is the multi million $$$ question. That is why we have a GM to solve these riddles. Dubie needs to figure it all out. Although I gave him credit for rectifying his bad call by getting Soup. and then recognizing with COVID that teams would be able to carry 3 goalers this year -Dell.

 

[Fogelhund]

That is the multi million $$$ question. That is why we have a GM to solve these riddles. Dubie needs to figure it all out. Although I gave him credit for rectifying his bad call by getting Soup. and then recognizing with COVID that teams would be able to carry 3 goalers this year -Dell.

Rask, Raanta, Halak seem like the best UFA. Binnington will be a UFA too, but he was trash last year in the playoffs, like 0,851 SV%, 4.52 GAA bad. Fleury only has one year left on his contract, after this year. Maybe Vegas moves him for cheap, and withholds half of their cap, to make room for other deals??

 

[thusk]

This is what people don't get.

Andersen has normally been a great goalie(for us) in the regular season, and terrible in the playoffs.

But now, from the tail-end of the 2019 season, through the playoffs, through the entire 2019/2020 season and those playoffs, he's been bad...

I really, really wish we traded for Kuemper.

Sorry you cant blame andersen for columbus sorry, yes korlisalo looking better but just look what kind of scoring chance of shot he faced. For of them outside shot with no circulation in front, no rebound to stop. Yes he faced really good job an was amaizing but he was perfectly protected.

What kind of shot andersen faced? Breakaway, 2v1, 3 on 2, screen shot, deflection, rebound.

So yes stastistically, korpisalo was better but at he end he was also the one with the better protection in front of him too. So that the end for me, korpisalo never outplayed andersen but columbus d outplayed leafs d and it looks andersen worse than it actually is

 

[ottomaddox]

He is likely gone at the end of the season (even if the leafs win the cup - IMHO).

We should be eyeing up the next best UFA goalie.

Campbell's audition is this year...

edit - I am not posting this just to kick him. He's not a bad goalie. He has been great for TOR most times. I just know that the salary cap works against most things with Dubas' architecture, and this team.

 

[ottomaddox]

delete

 

[al secord]

It's going to be a lot of fun trying to find a bonafide #1 like Freddy. I remember how easy it was before we traded for him.

 

[The CyNick]

Babcock and Lou built teams that supported their goalie better. Dubas and Keefe build a team that leads the goalie to fend for himself. Not shockingly, the results are far worse under Dubas and co.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Trade for assets or let him walk. He’s going to be too expensive to resign

Campbell can't be the starter