Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)

[Discoverer]

Fowler isn't getting 20 million per if Reddick only gets 12 million per is my only point as I've already stated that I prefer Fowler.

Considering Reddick's contact rate completely blows Fowler out of the water, your point is false. Fowler also isn't a better power hitter than Reddick. Also, do you actually think his BABIP is sustainable for a guy who strikes out as much as he does? Defensively, Reddick has a better RF than Fowler does, which is something I want in a close game.

When I say Fowler is better at pretty much everything, I mean he's better at offense, defense, and baserunning, not that he's better at every microcosmic aspect of each of those.

Fowler's ISO was significantly higher in 2016, and they were similar in 2015.

His BABIP is 100% sustainable considering his career mark is .342, and his .350 from 2016 was the fifth highest of his career. I'm not sure what strikeouts have to do with that, but his strikeout rate is barely above league average.

They're probably pretty similar fielders at this point, but at least Fowler has primarily played CF. That's significantly more valuable that RF.

I think it's more likely they get something around $12 and $16 million, but even with the QO attached, Fowler likely gets quite a bit more. He also probably gets a couple extra years since there's less risk with a guy coming off his best career season than there is with someone coming off his worst.

 

[ryno23]

The time to buy Fowler at an appropriate price has past. He will most certainly be overpaid.

I would hope Theo lets Fowler talk this offseason unless he wants to come back with a similar deal as this past year. We,er I mean the Cubs shouldn't over pay Fowler regardless of how good he fit in on the team. They have enough young talent such as Almora, Soler, Schwarber to fill the gap mind you that force Heyward into CF but hopefully 2016 was an off year for him.

Christ with all the Cubs talent I would make a run at Trout this offseason.

You can create a deal with all these guys involved Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jorger Soler,Jeimer Candelario and still the Cubs wouldn't miss those guys.

I am sure the Angels would ask for Schwarber and that is ok hate to lose him but to have Trout man CF for the next decade at Wrigley would be sweet.

So going back to my earlier point after this fantasy trade lol. No need to overpay Fowler just shake his hand and say thanks for 2 playoff runs.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I would hope Theo lets Fowler talk this offseason unless he wants to come back with a similar deal as this past year. We,er I mean the Cubs shouldn't over pay Fowler regardless of how good he fit in on the team. They have enough young talent such as Almora, Soler, Schwarber to fill the gap mind you that force Heyward into CF but hopefully 2016 was an off year for him.

Christ with all the Cubs talent I would make a run at Trout this offseason.

You can create a deal with all these guys involved Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jorger Soler,Jeimer Candelario and still the Cubs wouldn't miss those guys.

I am sure the Angels would ask for Schwarber and that is ok hate to lose him but to have Trout man CF for the next decade at Wrigley would be sweet.

So going back to my earlier point after this fantasy trade lol. No need to overpay Fowler just shake his hand and say thanks for 2 playoff runs.

Hey Ryno. You must be the most gleeful individual this side of the Mississippi. Hope your boys can pull out the comeback.

Theo is smart. He played the situation with Fowler perfectly last offseason, and will likely know the best before date better than anyone. As for Trout, if any franchise has the assets available to pull off a Trout trade, its the Cubs. I wouldn't even be upset if I were a Cub fan if Schwarber was involved in the package. Love the kid, but he's a DH\1B.

 

[Eyedea]

Doubt the Angels would just lean over and give Trout for prospects. They'd want Bryant.

 

[dredeye]

Perfect. Except its top 10 cant lose a pick

Unless it's changed. It's top ten protected but they give us a 2nd instead of a 1st if they're in the top ten.

 

[Canada4Gold]

yeah it's top 10, my bad.

The team that signs them loses their highest non top 10 pick. So that could be a 1st if it's not top 10, or a 2nd, but if said team gets a comp pick from a QO then would lose that before losing their 2nd should they sign 1 guy and have a top 10 pick or sign 2 or more guys.

 

[hockeywiz542]

reaching quick agreements with bautista and encarnacion when they’re on the verge of being able to speak with 29 other teams is highly unlikely, even though both have made clear that they want to stay in toronto.

texas and boston are considered two likely suitors for encarnacion with the mets, red sox and astros possibilities for bautista and unless blown away, they owe it to themselves to see what the market offers.

cubs outfielder dexter fowler, a top-of-the-order switch-hitter with a career on-base percentage of .366, would be an ideal option, although the market for him is expected to be very strong. He’d fill the blue jays’ need for a leadoff hitter and give them the kind of versatile hitter they’ve lacked.

josh reddick is another free agent they’re believed to have interest in, a left-handed batter who posted an .871 ops against right-handed pitchers in 2016. His .366 ops in 104 plate appearances versus lefties was well off his career rate of .640 and is a concern, but he could be platooned with melvin upton jr., to provide manager john gibbons some of the flexibility he lacked this year.

First baseman/outfielder brandon moss is another left-handed batter who would allow gibbons to do different things with his lineup given the defensive versatility. Shapiro and atkins were both in cleveland when he was acquired dec. 8, 2014 and subsequently dealt to st. Louis on july 30, 2015, where he played this season, so there’s some internal familiarity with him. And moss could compensate for some lost thump given that he’s hit at least 21 home runs in four of the past five seasons.

An interesting possibility for left-handed power is former blue jays outfielder colby rasmus, a gold glove finalist in left field coming off a down year with houston in which he was hampered by physical issues. He underwent a pair of surgeries oct. 18 – one to repair his core muscle, another to shave down a bone spur and repair the labrum in his left hip – but will be running at full strength by january and healthy for spring training. A reunion seems unlikely, but he may fit a need.

Should the blue jays forego attempts to balance out their right-handed heavy lineup, cleveland first baseman mike napoli is another option for power, with a history of helping teams win adding to his appeal.

Rangers centre-fielder ian desmond is someone the blue jays will talk to, a well-rounded offensive player with substantial experience batting second, fifth and sixth plus 93 games in the leadoff spot. With 900 games at shortstop before his position switch this year, desmond could also offer some protection against an injury to troy tulowitzki.

 

[Discoverer]

Doubt the Angels would just lean over and give Trout for prospects. They'd want Bryant.

The Angels are a disaster pretty much everywhere. It doesn't make sense for them to trade the best player in the league for the second best player in the league. If they decide to trade Trout, it only makes sense for them to trade him for a massive package of prospects and roster players who can help make them a more well-rounded team and a better team going forward.

Plus, there's a reasonably good chance to Bryant is a more valuable piece than Trout in a 1-for-1 deal. So it makes even less sense.

 

[Tony Romo]

The Angels are a disaster pretty much everywhere. It doesn't make sense for them to trade the best player in the league for the second best player in the league. If they decide to trade Trout, it only makes sense for them to trade him for a massive package of prospects and roster players who can help make them a more well-rounded team and a better team going forward.

Plus, there's a reasonably good chance to Bryant is a more valuable piece than Trout in a 1-for-1 deal. So it makes even less sense.

wut?

 

[Eyedea]

The Angels are a disaster pretty much everywhere. It doesn't make sense for them to trade the best player in the league for the second best player in the league. If they decide to trade Trout, it only makes sense for them to trade him for a massive package of prospects and roster players who can help make them a more well-rounded team and a better team going forward.

Plus, there's a reasonably good chance to Bryant is a more valuable piece than Trout in a 1-for-1 deal. So it makes even less sense.

I never said they would do it straight up. Bryant+.

And no, Kris Bryant is not a more valuable piece than Trout, contracts included. What reason do the Angels have to trade the best player in the world for prospects that may or may not amount to anything? We're talking about a 25 year old generational player that still has 4 years of control. They can throw 40, 50m per at him when he's in his final year. Do whatever you can to make him a lifer. They're priority should be building around him.

Just to use the Cubs as an example, what would the ideal package be from them for Trout? Schwarber, Jimenez, Happ, Zagunis, Candelario? How enticing do these pieces sound for the Angels?

 

[Le Cobra]

If the Jays were to get Trout, they would have to trade Donaldson. We don't want to do that, so it's better to part with anyone that is not JD, Tulo, Martin, Sanchez, Osuna...

It's a pipe dream but realistically we are more likely to get Reddick and/or Moss/Napoli and that would be perfectly fine with me

 

[Quiksilver*]

If the Jays were to get Trout, they would have to trade Donaldson. We don't want to do that, so it's better to part with anyone that is not JD, Tulo, Martin, Sanchez, Osuna...

In what world would the Angels want any of JD, Tulo or Martin as part of any deal for Trout?

 

[Discoverer]

I never said they would do it straight up. Bryant+.

And no, Kris Bryant is not a more valuable piece than Trout, contracts included. What reason do the Angels have to trade the best player in the world for prospects that may or may not amount to anything? We're talking about a 25 year old generational player that still has 4 years of control. They can throw 40, 50m per at him when he's in his final year. Do whatever you can to make him a lifer. They're priority should be building around him.

Just to use the Cubs as an example, what would the ideal package be from them for Trout? Schwarber, Jimenez, Happ, Zagunis, Candelario? How enticing do these pieces sound for the Angels?

Do you think Trout will provide more surplus value in the next fours years at $120 million or Bryant in the next five years at ~$50-60 million? I don't know the answer, but it's close enough that you could argue either way, and the the difference isn't a huge prospect/young player package that the Angels need.

I disagree that they should build around Trout because they currently have an expensive roster with no supporting pieces, no farm system, and I think the chances of Trout staying beyond the four years (when they may start to be good again) are extremely thin.

And no, that package doesn't make sense. Start with some combination of Schwarber/Baez/Russell/Soler/Contreras and add the top prospects from there. That makes more sense for the Angels than shuffling value from one star player to another.

I think, though, that the most likely scenario is that the Angels keep Trout for four more years, he continues to be one of the best players ever, they continue to be terrible, and he leaves as a free agent.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

What a strangely eclectic article. Three of the suggested free agents mentioned were buy-lows last year, and are now undoubtedly buy (too) high.

- Fowler: last year was the year to buy low on a short-term, affordable contract because his value cratered due to the comp pick. Didn't sign until February (PY: 1y+1 @$13MM, CY: ~3Y@$17MM)
- Napoli: coming off his worst season in 2015 signed for 1Y @ $7MM. Coming off a career high in home runs in 2016. Likely to get multiple years somewhere near the QO
- Desmond: Coming off his worst season since 2011 in 2015, signed a 1Y deal @ $8MM in February and had to change positions. Back to 20/20 in 2016. Likely to get 4+ years @ something close to the QO

While the other three would be considered buy low. We've discussed Reddick, who would be a good signing at the Desmond 2015 contract. Also think Moss on the same contract he was on in 2016 (1y @ $8.2MM) would be a good signing as well, though I worry his home run total will inflate his value (I prefer buying Matt Joyce if the market isn't wise to how good he was in 2016 for the ~$5MM he'll cost). No one's touching the Colby, methinks.

 

[one77]

In what world would the Angels want any of JD, Tulo or Martin as part of any deal for Trout?

JD yes. Every team in the league dreams of having him.

Tulo/Martin the Angels definitely don't care for.

 

[one77]

Trout is available?? Give the Angels anything they want minus JD/Sanchez/Osuna lol

 

[Discoverer]

What a strangely eclectic article. Three of the suggested free agents mentioned were buy-lows last year, and are now undoubtedly buy (too) high.

- Fowler: last year was the year to buy low on a short-term, affordable contract because his value cratered due to the comp pick. Didn't sign until February (PY: 1y+1 @$13MM, CY: ~3Y@$17MM)
- Napoli: coming off his worst season in 2015 signed for 1Y @ $7MM. Coming off a career high in home runs in 2016. Likely to get multiple years somewhere near the QO
- Desmond: Coming off his worst season since 2011 in 2015, signed a 1Y deal @ $8MM in February and had to change positions. Back to 20/20 in 2016. Likely to get 4+ years @ something close to the QO

While the other three would be considered buy low. We've discussed Reddick, who would be a good signing at the Desmond 2015 contract. Also think Moss on the same contract he was on in 2016 (1y @ $8.2MM) would be a good signing as well, though I worry his home run total will inflate his value (I prefer buying Matt Joyce if the market isn't wise to how good he was in 2016 for the ~$5MM he'll cost). No one's touching the Colby, methinks.

I think Napoli will peak at something like 2/24 or 3/30. The HR boost is great, but he's a 35-year-old DH/1B with a 113 wRC+. Of course, all it takes is one team to think more highly of him than that, but there aren't many old-school teams left that will pay big dollars for traditional numbers. He doesn't have a whole lot of value, and I would be shocked if he comes anywhere close to $17 million, even on a short deal.

Desmond's Saunders-level 1st/2nd half splits are probably enough to scare me off at the price he'll likely command.

I have no idea what to think of Fowler's market. I think he's a great fit as a player, but I tend to agree that he'll get a pretty hefty deal.

I still think Reddick will get too much, but I would like him at the right deal. Moss would likely be a solid, cheap option, and Joyce just seems like a perfect fit in every way.

 

[Eyedea]

Do you think Trout will provide more surplus value in the next fours years at $120 million or Bryant in the next five years at ~$50-60 million? I don't know the answer, but it's close enough that you could argue either way, and the the difference isn't a huge prospect/young player package that the Angels need.

I disagree that they should build around Trout because they currently have an expensive roster with no supporting pieces, no farm system, and I think the chances of Trout staying beyond the four years (when they may start to be good again) are extremely thin.

And no, that package doesn't make sense. Start with some combination of Schwarber/Baez/Russell/Soler/Contreras and add the top prospects from there. That makes more sense for the Angels than shuffling value from one star player to another.

I think, though, that the most likely scenario is that the Angels keep Trout for four more years, he continues to be one of the best players ever, they continue to be terrible, and he leaves as a free agent.

Any of those pieces + the Cubs top prospects still isn't enticing for the Angels. There's no 70/75 type of guy that has a high enough floor for the Angels to think about selling Trout. Russell is the closest one and they already have Simmons manning short.

And yes, I fully believe Trout holds more surplus value, both on the field and for marketing. Bryant has probably already hit his peak fWAR a la Harper. He's still a superstar but not a perennial 9-10 WAR candidate like Trout.

Angels are also operating at a fairly reasonable payroll now. 40m in commitments to Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson will be coming off the books, and 26m of dead salary to Josh Hamilton is still counting to their 2017 payroll of 104m (pre-arb). By 2018 the dead salary will be gone and they'll start targeting big names from the 2019 free agent crop.

 

[Kurtz]

And yes, I fully believe Trout holds more surplus value, both on the field and for marketing. Bryant has probably already hit his peak fWAR a la Harper. He's still a superstar but not a perennial 9-10 WAR candidate like Trout.

You might be selling him a bit short here. 8.4 fwar this year in his sophmore season...and that mug is a marketer's dream.

 

[Discoverer]

Any of those pieces + the Cubs top prospects still isn't enticing for the Angels. There's no 70/75 type of guy that has a high enough floor for the Angels to think about selling Trout. Russell is the closest one and they already have Simmons manning short.

And yes, I fully believe Trout holds more surplus value, both on the field and for marketing. Bryant has probably already hit his peak fWAR a la Harper. He's still a superstar but not a perennial 9-10 WAR candidate like Trout.

Angels are also operating at a fairly reasonable payroll now. 40m in commitments to Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson will be coming off the books, and 26m of dead salary to Josh Hamilton is still counting to their 2017 payroll of 104m (pre-arb). By 2018 the dead salary will be gone and they'll start targeting big names from the 2019 free agent crop.

To me, even 2019 doesn't look good for them. They'll have $75 million committed to three players, one who is amazing (Trout), one who is really good (Simmons) and one who will likely be approximately replacement level by that point (Pujols). Maybe they're still getting some contributions from Shoemaker or Calhoun in their last year of arbitration, or maybe they've traded them for players who can help in 2019. Maybe Richards bounces back and they can sign him to an extension. Maybe Andrew Heaney has figured it out at that point. It's a long way away and a lot can happen in that time, but as the organization stands now, with a complete disaster of a farm system, they look like they have to rebuild their entire roster from the ground up because there likely aren't a whole lot of internal reinforcements on the way. Building purely through free agency is a risky proposition at the best of times, and the Angels don't exactly have the best recent track record.

You know, you're probably right about Trout still being the most valuable player in baseball. With his new contract and a bunch of cheap superstars coming up, he's not running away with the title anymore, but it's probably still him. But I would still look at trading him for the biggest possible package of young talent because I don't see that team winning anything during his current contract, and I don't think he'll be there anymore once it expires.

 

[Eyedea]

You might be selling him a bit short here. 8.4 fwar this year in his sophmore season...and that mug is a marketer's dream.

Nah, only because it's incredibly difficult to keep a pace like that. Pretty sure the only guys this century to put up back to back 8 fWAR seasons are Bonds, Rodriguez, Pujols, Trout, and Utley. Bonds and Trout are also the only ones to put up back to back 10 fWAR seasons over that stretch. There was an argument to be made that Harper became the best player in baseball after his season last year, but he floundered and Trout's still the king.

And yeah, he's a beautiful man. But Trout's the face of baseball.

 

[Giuseppe Sallo]

Two for the price of one. No on pursuing trout!

I have faith in Shapkins, Ths team needs to be tinkered a bit for the playoff push next season.

Versatility >>>> Power.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Reddick
http://jaysfromthecouch.com/2016/11...ent-target-josh-reddick-makes-sense-mlb-news/

So, perhaps, they go calling on Josh Reddick. The first thing that might draw them to him is that he was traded mid-season from the Athletics to the Dodgers and won’t have a draft pick attached to him through the qualifying offer.



That certainly is incentive as the MLB/MLBPA CBA currently stands. The next thing that makes him desirable is that he bats from the left side of the plate. He owns a career average of .270 vs right handed pitching. Now, he has hit lefties to the tune of just .218 over that same span. But, in a right handed heavy lineup, you can either absorb that, or have him take the day off in favor of Upton Jr. Reddick’s overall numbers show a guy who has some pop- he hit double digit home runs in each of his last 5 seasons, including 32 in 2012 and 20 in 2015. Spending most of his career hitting in Oakland certainly has not helped the HR totals. But, moving to a hitter friendly AL East certainly would.



But, let’s say you don’t care about the home run and want a guy who can get on base and make contact. He has a .333 and .345 OBP in his last two seasons respectively. Since 2013, according to Fangraphs, Reddick has managed to decrease his K% from 19.5% to 8.9% last year. He swung at 29% of balls out of the zone (making contact at a rate of 78.1%). For comparison, free swinging Pillar swung at 37.1% (70% contact) and eagle eye Bautista swung at 20% (60.4% contact). In the zone, where Reddick saw 43.5% of his offerings, he made contact at a rate of 90.9%. His 6% swinging strike rate is better than Bautista’s 2016 mark of 7.2%.

The benefit that Reddick has is that he will turn 30 in February. If the Blue Jays want to get younger, here is a chance to do so in a way that isn’t going as young as Pompey. He will bring a speedier presence that the club can use to its advantage. As well, Reddick could be enticed to sign- maybe- in Toronto with former A’s teammate, Josh Donaldson falling in love with the city and fanbase.

If the Blue Jays want to go shopping, and assuming other things fall into place, as stated above, perhaps they could capitalize on a somewhat down year for Reddick. His sort of pedestrian 2016 between 2 clubs could bring his asking price down, albeit not by much. He will be a pretty big target this winter.

 

[doorman]

Two for the price of one. No on pursuing trout!

I have faith in Shapkins, Ths team needs to be tinkered a bit for the playoff push next season.

Versatility >>>> Power.

Exactly, look at this management team, collectively they built the Indians and Red Sox, so have some faith for sure. Also different doesn't mean worse people just find change difficult and I get that when there's been success. Sshhhhh, just let it happen, they'll be ok

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Discussing Reddick without mentioning his ISO and babip is burying the lead a little bit. Amateur night at the apollo.