Blue Jays Discussion: And the off-season begins (list of FA's in Post #1)
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RoyalCitySlicker
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I'm not sure what I believe. I get what you are saying, but I don't really understand why you think they (players, coaches) would say it if they didn't really think there was something to it.
Saying they use it only as a post-script narrative really gives them zero credit. It's possible for sure, I'm just not as ready to totally dismiss it and "LOLZ" at anyone who might give it some credence.
Shimso
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IMO momentum is just like being "clutch". It isn't easy to quantify, but psychological factors can impact how a player plays.
If you lose 2 games in a row, maybe you start to second guess yourself, maybe the pressure gets to you, and maybe you end up getting distracted or overthinking things.
If you win 2 games in a row, maybe you start feeling confident enough to take more aggressive swings, etc.
Let's say you're a manager and it's the 9th in a tie game and you're going to the bench for a PH. You have two virtually identical righty power hitters. One normally has a OPS of .800 but is currently at .600 over the last 3 games, while the other normally has an OPS of .700 but is 1.000 over the last 3 games. Who do you pick?
I mean we all played sports, there's definitely specific times where you can feel what one would call the effects of momentum occurring, regardless of level. But there's also times where the exact same set of circumstances occur and there's no impact on the game. Is that because the opposition is mentally stronger (or your team mentally weaker)? Perhaps that's part of the equation, but I would say its more because there is such a randomness to sports that everything is unpredictable as is.
RedHead Kingpin
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RoyalCitySlicker
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Yeah, that's kinda what I was getting at. There is something to it but like theaub says below, perhaps it's a matter of random and unpredictable things occurring.
Anyway, didn't mean to derail the thread. Just wanted to give my $0.02 on people lol'ing at the suggestion that there might be something to the notion of momentum or whatever you want to call it.
Should be a great game tonight, regardless of which team has the momentum
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Momentum and clutch are 100% placebo. It doesn't actually exist, but you think it exists and therefore your reaction to the thought of its existence (like "yeah, I'm on a roll") is what makes it exist.
RoyalCitySlicker
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While there are a ton of other factors to consider, you go with the better overall hitter every time.
Momentum makes a lot of sense as a concept. When you're winning as a team or playing well as an individual, you feel more confident, so it also makes perfect sense that athletes would feel like it exists.
But, like any narrative, there's a ton of confirmation bias involved. When a team has momentum on their side and they win, we talk about how momentum obviously exists and that's why they won. But when a team has momentum on their side and they lose, we ignore it and move on. So the only examples that ever get attributed to momentum are those that support it as a concept, so it looks like it must exist.
To me, what people perceive as "momentum" is actually just the natural ups and downs and random variance that should be expected within a long season.
HockeyThoughts
Delivering The Truth
How do you explain the Leafs giving up the infamous 4-1 lead?
Or the Bruins losing a series up 3-0 and up 3-0 in the final game?
Or Donaldson hitting 3HR in a game.
Or even just players going on hot streaks and cold streaks.
Momentum does occur. People do go on rolls in every sport. It has a lot to do with confidence (on both sides). Any athlete can tell you.. Some days you just got it, some you don't. Sometimes in the midst of a game the tides seem to turn, all the bounces go one way and it becomes inevitable that the other team will capitalize.
There is no scientific explanation for it. It's just something that happens. You either beleive it, or you don't. But there are endless examples of momentum and damn near every athlete will attest to it's existence.
Or the Bruins losing a series up 3-0 and up 3-0 in the final game?
Or Donaldson hitting 3HR in a game.
Or even just players going on hot streaks and cold streaks.
Momentum does occur. People do go on rolls in every sport. It has a lot to do with confidence (on both sides). Any athlete can tell you.. Some days you just got it, some you don't. Sometimes in the midst of a game the tides seem to turn, all the bounces go one way and it becomes inevitable that the other team will capitalize.
There is no scientific explanation for it. It's just something that happens. You either beleive it, or you don't. But there are endless examples of momentum and damn near every athlete will attest to it's existence.
RoyalCitySlicker
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A lot of people believe if you cannot quantify it, it therefore does not exist.
I don't subscribe to that POV, but I've been ridiculed by those who do!
Like I said, I don't really know what to believe!
JS19
Legends Never Die
I think the concept of momentum has been conflated by other ideas such as psychological wellbeing/self-efficacy (the more confident you are in your skill, the more you will execute), and precipitating events (usually a huge fail move). People who use the belief "not quantified = doesn't exist" are being narrow-minded considering that when you watch a game, you can pinpoint the turning points the resulted in things changing for a team. How many times have we seen this in hockey and with the Jays?
The thing is, if momentum really did exist, the Leafs never would have given up that lead because, at 4-1, they would have had all the momentum. And Donaldson having a big game should be entirely expected, since he's one of the best players in the game.
Sometimes teams play well for long stretches at a time. Sometimes teams play poorly for long stretches at a time. Over an 82 games schedule (or 162) those kinds of stretches should be expected.
I mean... if momentum does exist, how do you explain all the "hot" teams who lose to struggling teams? And how to you explain momentum suddenly and unexpectedly reversing?
Wait, how is the Bruins losing after being on a 3 game winning streak prove that momentum exists? What happened to their momentum? What happened to the Red Wings in 2011, who went down 0-3, won three in a row to force game 7, but then lost the series in the seventh game?
Teams and players seem to have momentum until they magically don't. There's no magical "momentum" at work, it's luck. Luck is a huge factor in sports.
Gary Nylund
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Some good points here IMO. I'd say the momentum is shifting in your favour in this discussion.
RoyalCitySlicker
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How many times have we seen it feel like momentum has changed in a game, though? Like... when comebacks fall just short. When your team is down a couple runs late against the other team's ace closer and they string together three straight hits and you think to yourself "This is the turning point!" and then a strikeout and a double-play later, it's over. Or when you do manage to battle all the way back to tie the game and you have all the momentum and the other team look deflated... and then you immediately give up three runs the next inning and go out with a whimper.
I completely agree with theaub: momentum is a post-script narrative. If you believe in it, it can be used however you see fit after the fact. If the Cubs win tonight, they'll do so because they have the momentum; if they lose, it's because Cleveland had Kluber starting and he turned the momentum. Either way, we get to attribute it to momentum, which proves it exists.
Can't say 100%. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Look at the fabled "hot hand" in basketball, which you can say is a similar concept: http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...n_basketball_are_real_new_analysis_shows.html
Momentum and clutch may not be what we typically conceptualize them as, but that doesn't mean that something similar to them doesn't affect the outcome of games on some level (e.g., expectancy effects). That doesn't mean they have so much influence that they would affect whom one would select as the favourite for a game though.
Shimso
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Some good points here IMO. I'd say the momentum is shifting in your favour in this discussion.
And how many times have we seen over the years on this specific forum where we lose the game 4-1 and everyone blames Reimer for the loss?
AllDay28
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