All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XIII - the 23 deadline approaches

[Canes]

I'll put this out here so that if I end up being right I can't be accused of Monday morning QBing later, lol.

Some here seem to believe, based on past moves, that the Borg will only work within a similar framework and utilize a limited set of strategies when it comes to future moves ("I'll believe it when I see it"). I posit that the Borg isn't nearly as rigid as some believe. While I'm sure the Borg has general guiding principles that they operate by, I believe that it recognizes that the environment isn't static, that it actively analyzes changes over time and within the organization, that it will adjust strategy accordingly, and that they will deviate from general principles if the exception makes sense.

In short, I'm guessing that a bigger limitation may be in the way some on here view the Borg rather than in the way the Borg will operate going forward. I could, of course, be wrong.

Having said that, they won't be stupid. E.g., I could see them going hard and even offering an overpayment for Meier but still not getting him if the price amps up into the ridiculous range. In which case I'm sure there will a plan B.

I'll believe it when I see it.

But to be for real, I don't think the borg is cheap, the team salary shows that. It's just they ain't buying unless they have a coupon or they find something absurdly cheap in the pawn shop that they can laugh at the cashier about when checking out.

 

[whiskers]

i donr understand the coyote trade , why didnt they get more than a 5th

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

i donr understand the coyote trade , why didnt they get more than a 5th

Mayo has been very meh this year and the LTIR contract has a bunch of value for the Yotes

 

[Canes]

i donr understand the coyote trade , why didnt they get more than a 5th

Your first mistake was trying to understand. The Coyotes are the NHL's dumping grounds. It's honestly a joke how they've been allowed to operate and I say this as someone who wants to keep them there. But they are literally a clown organization.

 

[ndp]

Isn’t Schmaltz just kinda more of what they’ve already got? Contract and cap hit wise it seems pretty decent.

Lines up with TT’s contract a few more bucks for a little less production. Under $6M per season, 3 seasons left, ends at age 30. Could be a TT replacement if they decide to try and move him, either now or during the offseason. Arizona might want to deal him before his M-NTC kicks in next season. Does he PK?

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Being in LTIR is a nuisance. If a team can out of that situation, great. However, if the price is too high, it's not a big deal. Add in Weber's low salaries remaining and he had limited negative value.

 

[LakeLivin]

I'll believe it when I see it.

But to be for real, I don't think the borg is cheap, the team salary shows that. It's just they ain't buying unless they have a coupon or they find something absurdly cheap in the pawn shop that they can laugh at the cashier about when checking out.

LOL.

Yeah, wouldn't disagree that they've spent but mostly bargain shopped. But I'm of the belief 1) that will allow them to splurge when it makes sense. 2) they're smart enough to recognize that principle and when to apply it.

Couple recent things that to me seem to reinforce that they'll zig when it makes sense:

Burns: runs counter to the age whole age/ long term thing

Tkachuk: if we really were close before a last minute Florida (potential) overpay, we sure weren't shopping with a coupon.

Pacioretty: ok, that was a pawn shop buy, lol. [didn't work out this season but still could pay big dividends next. I was really impressed with what he looks like he'll bring if he can come back healthy]

Like I said, we may see shortly. But I do wonder; if NJ makes an offer for Meier that we'd be foolish to top, will we ever find out for sure what we actually did have on the table? Do we know what we offered for Tkachuk?

 

[Vagrant]

It might come down to positional preference. if NJ bends and talks on Nemec or Mercer, we're out of the deal. we can't compete with it without Jarvis. but in my mind, NJ will not deal Nemec in this trade and it would shock me greatly to find out Mercer could be had. the fact that Mercer is being asked about or insisted upon doesn't mean he's going anywhere. I think our best chance is going to be which, or both, of the defense we give up with Nikishin and Morrow. when you look at the composition of our defense, we have a core of Slavin, Brady, Pesce, and Burns. Chatfield is trending towards that group as well. we'll have to resolve contracts there, but I don't think anyone is so egregiously underpaid that it will be problematic to retain them. with that in mind, all but Burns are under 30. we've proven to ourselves that we can find that kind of player on the trade market. prospects are great to have on defense, but rare examples are the guys who give you top pairing production on their ELC and by the time they hit their 2nd deal they're going to be paid for their slot. do we *need* someone to come in and play top 4 minutes with the current construction of our defense moving forward? it's no for me. if you have 4 or 5 you really like, navigating the market wisely can fill those gaps. with Nikishin as far away as he is from us, I wouldn't hesitate much even with the knowledge he'd be the next Konstantinov if he's 3 years from helping us. San Jose can suck long enough to wait for him, but we are approaching some critical years for our team. if we have to offer one or both of these defense prospects, I would make the deal.

I say this with a great deal of love for this team. We will not beat Boston without an addition like Meier. we are 1 big forward addition away from having a fearsome forward group that can match up with the Rangers and Bruins of the world and if we don't get it, we likely won't beat them.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I say this with a great deal of love for this team. We will not beat Boston without an addition like Meier. we are 1 big forward addition away from having a fearsome forward group that can match up with the Rangers and Bruins of the world and if we don't get it, we likely won't beat them.

Except we did beat one of those teams last year and took the other to 7 games, and we are also better than we were last year, and we were missing our top goalie.

I won't disagree that a good top 6 forward improves our odds, and I think that the Borg agrees; Dundon has said as much. But this team, as currently constituted, is fully capable of running the table.

 

[zman77]

 

[MadeUpName]

I've seen this "advanced stats" sentiment with Schmaltz multiple times now and I am struggling to find anything. All of his conventional advanced stats are Arizona-average - similar to Nick Bjugstad.

The best case I can make for Schmaltz is that he had 40 5v5 points last year (35 primary points). Carolina's best players were Aho with 38 5v5 points (30 primary) and Svechnikov with 38 5v5 points (31 primary).

His health history makes me wary. Hard for your addition to make an impact if he is on the IR. 3 more years at $5.8 million is a bigger health gamble than Pacioretty's 1 year.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I've seen this "advanced stats" sentiment with Schmaltz multiple times now and I am struggling to find anything. All of his conventional advanced stats are Arizona-average - similar to Nick Bjugstad.

The best case I can make for Schmaltz is that he had 40 5v5 points last year (35 primary points). Carolina's best players were Aho with 38 5v5 points (30 primary) and Svechnikov with 38 5v5 points (31 primary).

His health history makes me wary. Hard for your addition to make an impact if he is on the IR. 3 more years at $5.8 million is a bigger health gamble than Pacioretty's 1 year.

He received advanced stats credits because he still starts more in the D zone and has a lower CF yet he still puts up good ES scoring numbers and is better than expected metrics.

He has a better goals per 60 and the same assists per 60 rate as Necas despite having the puck 10% less per game and almost double the D zone starts per game.

For fairness, necas does have a double the expected individual goals per 60 rate and blows Schmaltz out the water on iHDCF created.

 

[Svechhammer]

I've seen this "advanced stats" sentiment with Schmaltz multiple times now and I am struggling to find anything. All of his conventional advanced stats are Arizona-average - similar to Nick Bjugstad.

The best case I can make for Schmaltz is that he had 40 5v5 points last year (35 primary points). Carolina's best players were Aho with 38 5v5 points (30 primary) and Svechnikov with 38 5v5 points (31 primary).

His health history makes me wary. Hard for your addition to make an impact if he is on the IR. 3 more years at $5.8 million is a bigger health gamble than Pacioretty's 1 year.

He'd potentially be a sneaky good add

Signed for 3 more years beyond this season at $5.58m per year. Can't find current season stats, so I'm a little skeptical of that spike in finishing from last season. Other than that, seems pretty poor defensively, but would be a good boost offensively.

 

[MadeUpName]

He received advanced stats credits because he still starts more in the D zone and has a lower CF yet he still puts up good ES scoring numbers and is better than expected metrics.

He has a better goals per 60 and the same assists per 60 rate as Necas despite having the puck 10% less per game and almost double the D zone starts per game.

For fairness, necas does have a double the expected individual goals per 60 rate and blows Schmaltz out the water on iHDCF created.

Naturalstattrick shows Schmaltz with 195 defensive zone faceoffs. 9th among Arizona. Compare that to Keller which has 308.

Necas shows 207 defensive zone faceoffs. Which is more than 195 and 5th among Carolina forwards.

Personally I have come around to seeing defensive/offensive zone starts/faceoffs as containing very little meaningful info. 75% of line transitions are on the fly. And given the numbers Schmaltz is far down the line of defensive options for Arizona. They just start in the defensive zone a lot more than Carolina.

He'd potentially be a sneaky good add

Signed for 3 more years beyond this season at $5.58m per year. Can't find current season stats, so I'm a little skeptical of that spike in finishing from last season. Other than that, seems pretty poor defensively, but would be a good boost offensively.

Just a note to that chart he is a RW. It looks like the two years in his career that he tried to play Center (> 500 faceoffs) he had a 40% and 42% FO%.

Between Teravainen, Jarvis, Necas, Svechnikov (sometimes plays right) and Fast the team could really use either a Center or someone who can play LW.

Given the choice and similar price I'd take Henrique over Schmaltz.

 

[SlavinAway]

Keep our eye on the prize

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

It might come down to positional preference. if NJ bends and talks on Nemec or Mercer, we're out of the deal. we can't compete with it without Jarvis. but in my mind, NJ will not deal Nemec in this trade and it would shock me greatly to find out Mercer could be had. the fact that Mercer is being asked about or insisted upon doesn't mean he's going anywhere. I think our best chance is going to be which, or both, of the defense we give up with Nikishin and Morrow. when you look at the composition of our defense, we have a core of Slavin, Brady, Pesce, and Burns. Chatfield is trending towards that group as well. we'll have to resolve contracts there, but I don't think anyone is so egregiously underpaid that it will be problematic to retain them. with that in mind, all but Burns are under 30. we've proven to ourselves that we can find that kind of player on the trade market. prospects are great to have on defense, but rare examples are the guys who give you top pairing production on their ELC and by the time they hit their 2nd deal they're going to be paid for their slot. do we *need* someone to come in and play top 4 minutes with the current construction of our defense moving forward? it's no for me. if you have 4 or 5 you really like, navigating the market wisely can fill those gaps. with Nikishin as far away as he is from us, I wouldn't hesitate much even with the knowledge he'd be the next Konstantinov if he's 3 years from helping us. San Jose can suck long enough to wait for him, but we are approaching some critical years for our team. if we have to offer one or both of these defense prospects, I would make the deal.

I say this with a great deal of love for this team. We will not beat Boston without an addition like Meier. we are 1 big forward addition away from having a fearsome forward group that can match up with the Rangers and Bruins of the world and if we don't get it, we likely won't beat them.

I know this is a supporting point to your post and not your main point, but like... he really is. He's so good. Isn't that wild? Random cast-off. It's like our version of Forsling from a player acquisition perspective.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

My morning shower thought was that we'd trade a 1st, Morrow, and Kotkaniemi to the Penguins for Crosby. It won't happen for a lot of reasons.

Realistically I think Schmaltz is another good get. I was looking over some of the other bottom feeder teams for names we haven't mentioned yet and none of them struck me. We're getting to the point where we've named everybody so we can't be surprised.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Naturalstattrick shows Schmaltz with 195 defensive zone faceoffs. 9th among Arizona. Compare that to Keller which has 308.

Necas shows 207 defensive zone faceoffs. Which is more than 195 and 5th among Carolina forwards.

Personally I have come around to seeing defensive/offensive zone starts/faceoffs as containing very little meaningful info. 75% of line transitions are on the fly. And given the numbers Schmaltz is far down the line of defensive options for Arizona. They just start in the defensive zone a lot more than Carolina.

Just a note to that chart he is a RW. It looks like the two years in his career that he tried to play Center (> 500 faceoffs) he had a 40% and 42% FO%.

Between Teravainen, Jarvis, Necas, Svechnikov (sometimes plays right) and Fast the team could really use either a Center or someone who can play LW.

Here's a good graphic to put it in perspective. Schmaltz this season does get the most ozone starts on his team among 'centers'.

 

[spockBokk]

Schmaltz would be an OK consolation prize, right up their alley with term, but I don’t think he can be the only add up front.

 

[Chrispy]

We're getting to the point where we've named everybody so we can't be surprised.

The Carolina Hurricanes announce they have acquired Kevin Durant.

 

[AD Skinner]

Schmaltz scored almost a point per game last year and is flirting with that same pace this year on bad coyote teams. We could do worse for a righty American trocheck replacement

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

If we're talking Shmaltz I'll take one of these.

 

[Stickpucker]

I want a player who likes to kick ass and chew bubble gum.....who is all out of bubble gum.

 

[spockBokk]

If they do end up with Schmaltz, Pageau or any other righty forward, they’re going to be a bit overloaded with right shots - Necas, Jarvis, Fast, Noesen, Stepan and new guy.

Remember when Williams was the only righty?

 

[MinJaBen]

I know this is a supporting point to your post and not your main point, but like... he really is. He's so good. Isn't that wild? Random cast-off. It's like our version of Forsling from a player acquisition perspective.

If he has just a bit more growth, I could see him maybe make Pesce expendable in the front office's eyes if push comes to shove on the contract negotiations.