All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XIII - the 23 deadline approaches

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MinJaBen

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The trick is, the #1 goal, I think, is to win as many cups as possible, not win a cup this year.

So 20% 10% 10% 10% is way worse than 15% 15% 15% 15%
I'm not sure I agree with this logic...not the math, the logic that one cup, then a lull, is worse than no lulls but less chances to win. Ask fanbases that have had sustained good teams that failed to win a cup (San Jose, Vancouver, Buffalo) and you will see a desire for a cup. In fact, I bet they have less engagement now as fans then teams like Chicago or any other team that has won a cup and then has to suffer through a rebuilding lull.

You HAVE to go for it sometimes to keep the hope of building a winner to follow. You can't depend on your fans to do the math about sustained goodness and the "well if we make a run" types of hopes.
 

A Star is Burns

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I'm not sure I agree with this logic...not the math, the logic that one cup, then a lull, is worse than no lulls but less chances to win. Ask fanbases that have had sustained good teams that failed to win a cup (San Jose, Vancouver, Buffalo) and you will see a desire for a cup. In fact, I bet they have less engagement now as fans then teams like Chicago or any other team that has won a cup and then has to suffer through a rebuilding lull.

You HAVE to go for it sometimes to keep the hope of building a winner to follow. You can't depend on your fans to do the math about sustained goodness and the "well if we make a run" types of hopes.
We've actually seen our market go through winning a Cup and then a lull, and it wasn't good for our market. The sustained success model seems to work much better. Of course, you take the Cup any day over not but given there are no guarantees to either strategy, I can see the appeal of sustained success. The east is difficult this year, has been for a while, and could be for years to come. Pushing all in probably doesn't even raise your chances all that much because of that.

Granted, again, I'm not opposed to a splash either. I'm just not married to the thought that we have to make one or what we're doing is a failure.
 

WreckingCrew

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Maybe this changes things for the Devils on Meier, get some backup whiles Hughes is out or plan on blowing your wad next season:


Taking bets on whether or not he magically reappears for playoff game 1 (aka the Kucherov)?

HOPEFULLY this means they'll blow all their capital on another C instead of a Winger. Let them grab ROR/Toews and Boeser while we grab Henrique & Meier!!
 
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chaz4hockey

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Imma guess it's one of either Johnny, Reggie, or Mitch.
music adds to Mitch: Glenn & the "king of the road" Roger.

Most Famous Miller was Agatha Christie (Miller) but although a famed writer, she never learned how to play hockey.


probably a 100K hockey fans could have tweeted out this list....
 

LostInaLostWorld

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We've actually seen our market go through winning a Cup and then a lull, and it wasn't good for our market. The sustained success model seems to work much better. Of course, you take the Cup any day over not but given there are no guarantees to either strategy, I can see the appeal of sustained success. The east is difficult this year, has been for a while, and could be for years to come. Pushing all in probably doesn't even raise your chances all that much because of that.

Granted, again, I'm not opposed to a splash either. I'm just not married to the thought that we have to make one or what we're doing is a failure.
And one needs to look at it from an owner's view. TD I am sure would love to win a cup. But I would figure he'd rather have sustained success to fill the coffers than a cup followed by half empty arenas.

Still think this a rare opportunity to go big or go home if deal can get done. Think there is enough in reserve to persevere the next few years.
 

Canes

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We've actually seen our market go through winning a Cup and then a lull, and it wasn't good for our market. The sustained success model seems to work much better. Of course, you take the Cup any day over not but given there are no guarantees to either strategy, I can see the appeal of sustained success. The east is difficult this year, has been for a while, and could be for years to come. Pushing all in probably doesn't even raise your chances all that much because of that.

Granted, again, I'm not opposed to a splash either. I'm just not married to the thought that we have to make one or what we're doing is a failure.
It wasn't good then for Raleigh in the late 2000s. This is a different Raleigh though. I live in an insanely expensive area now and Raleigh/Triangle area was a candidate for us to move to a cheaper area and closer to my inlaws for a long time until the last couple of years. And when Apple builds their second campus there... no chance. This is also a different team, management group and ownership. The team isn't going to miss the playoffs for a decade by going for it one of these seasons. I get what you're saying though. Still need to be very cautious with things that could affect the franchise long term.
 
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AhosDatsyukian

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I'm not sure I agree with this logic...not the math, the logic that one cup, then a lull, is worse than no lulls but less chances to win. Ask fanbases that have had sustained good teams that failed to win a cup (San Jose, Vancouver, Buffalo) and you will see a desire for a cup. In fact, I bet they have less engagement now as fans then teams like Chicago or any other team that has won a cup and then has to suffer through a rebuilding lull.

You HAVE to go for it sometimes to keep the hope of building a winner to follow. You can't depend on your fans to do the math about sustained goodness and the "well if we make a run" types of hopes.
The thing is you're not guaranteed to win a cup when you try to go all in on one year while jeopardizing the future. Hockey playoffs are so dependent on momentum, goaltending, health, luck, etc. that any team that gets in can win it that year. Having a team that can get in and has a shot to win it as a top 5-10 team for 10 straight years is more likely to win a cup (or more than 1 of course) than a team going all in to have a dominant team 1 year when maybe at best their odds to win it all would be like 50%, and that's being generous.

Look at Florida, last year they kinda went all in, fell flat on their face and now they're in a pretty rough spot. Overly simplistic example as obviously there is more at play there and they have had issues before last year, but in regards to us we could go all in adding Larkin, Meier, McCabe all at this deadline but giving up guys like Jarvis, Nikishin, Morrow and picks. Would we potentially be Cup favorites this year? Yeah I think so. But (fake probabilities here) is like 30-50% chance to win it all? If we don't win it all, with Meier, Larkin, Aho, Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, Necas, etc. coming up for contracts and a thinned out prospect/pick pool we may not even be making the playoffs in 2-3 years, and with no cup to show for it...
 

Canes

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And one needs to look at it from an owner's view. TD I am sure would love to win a cup. But I would figure he'd rather have sustained success to fill the coffers than a cup followed by half empty arenas.

Still think this a rare opportunity to go big or go home if deal can get done. Think there is enough in reserve to persevere the next few years.
I don't think the arena will be half empty unless we miss the playoffs for multiple seasons again. And trading a 1st or two and some prospects will not be the reason for that, not re-signing current players or replacing outgoing players will likely be the reason. And yes, the window for *this* specific group of players is getting smaller and smaller. To not even try to add to them and just being content with winning a playoff series or two every few years in the sake of keeping attendance up but not actively trying to win the Cup would border on malpractice. Just my opinion though.
 

Svechhammer

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ChatGPT strikes again

Me:
can you write a poem about why the Carolina Hurricanes are better than the Buffalo Sabres


ChatGPT:
The Carolina Hurricanes and the Buffalo Sabres,
Two teams in the NHL, with skill and with flair.
But why do the Hurricanes rise above,
And earn the admiration of all those they love?

With grace and with power, they take to the ice,
Their skills honed and sharp, their hearts filled with fire and spice.
From their swift and nimble forwards, to their solid defense,
They play with a passion, a power immense.

And when they face the Sabres, it's clear to see,
The Hurricanes stand tall, a victory is theirs to be.
For they are a team of unity, with a bond that's so true,
And together, they rise above all else, their spirit shines through.

So let it be known, that the Hurricanes reign supreme,
A team of power and grace, with a fire that's never seen.
For they are a force to be reckoned, a true masterpiece,
The best in the league, beyond the Sabres and all the rest.
 

Chan790

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I'm not sure I agree with this logic...not the math, the logic that one cup, then a lull, is worse than no lulls but less chances to win. Ask fanbases that have had sustained good teams that failed to win a cup (San Jose, Vancouver, Buffalo) and you will see a desire for a cup. In fact, I bet they have less engagement now as fans then teams like Chicago or any other team that has won a cup and then has to suffer through a rebuilding lull.

You HAVE to go for it sometimes to keep the hope of building a winner to follow. You can't depend on your fans to do the math about sustained goodness and the "well if we make a run" types of hopes.

Further, we have an abundance of assets. More B prospects than we will ever have opportunities to use...we can afford to overpay even to get our targets without fundamentally changing the outlook long-term.

A "bad deal" where we overpay by a spec who's never going to see ice time here or a good NHLer made redundant is better than no deal at this point.

Unused, uncapitalized assets are wasted assets.
 

chaz4hockey

Old man but still a PP2 Candidate
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Can one of you expert capologists explain to me whether we have $12.5M or $10.1M of contracts that we could absorb before season end (from puckpedia):

1675968005180.png
 

LakeLivin

Armchair Quarterback
Mar 11, 2016
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The trick is, the #1 goal, I think, is to win as many cups as possible, not win a cup this year.

So 20% 10% 10% 10% is way worse than 15% 15% 15% 15%

I'm not sure I agree with this logic...not the math, the logic that one cup, then a lull, is worse than no lulls but less chances to win. Ask fanbases that have had sustained good teams that failed to win a cup (San Jose, Vancouver, Buffalo) and you will see a desire for a cup. In fact, I bet they have less engagement now as fans then teams like Chicago or any other team that has won a cup and then has to suffer through a rebuilding lull.

You HAVE to go for it sometimes to keep the hope of building a winner to follow. You can't depend on your fans to do the math about sustained goodness and the "well if we make a run" types of hopes.

I think you missed his point on this one, which isn't necessarily counter to the one you made. Gil pointed out that even for the team with the best odds of winning the cup in a given year, the odds that they won't will be much higher. And if, in order to boost the odds of winning a Cup in one particular year you decrease the odds of winning a Cup over multiple subsequent years, overall you might be reducing the odds of winning that one cup we all want.

Obviously it's all dependent on what the projections are for the odds both this year as well as the over the next several. But I'm sure the Borg is at least as well equipped to do that calculus as any other team in the league. And those odds will be dependent on what moves are possible. [e.g., I don't think I've heard anyone say that we that should get Meier at whatever cost it takes]
 
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MadeUpName

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Tarasenko to NYR - they are loading up.

Tank reportedly would only waive for that area previously. Probably tied St. Louis's hands.
 

LostInaLostWorld

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I don't think the arena will be half empty unless we miss the playoffs for multiple seasons again. And trading a 1st or two and some prospects will not be the reason for that, not re-signing current players or replacing outgoing players will likely be the reason. And yes, the window for *this* specific group of players is getting smaller and smaller. To not even try to add to them and just being content with winning a playoff series or two every few years in the sake of keeping attendance up but not actively trying to win the Cup would border on malpractice. Just my opinion though.
Basically the point of my second paragraph.

Malpractice? Depends on what the owner considers good practice. And as much as we as fans can bitch and moan, it's the owner's perogative in the end. And TD said from the start winning was priority number one to regaining fans and filling the arena. A Cup is icing on the cake.
 

MadeUpName

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Interesting depending on what they give up.

I see the Devils going hard for Meier now to continue the NYC metro arms race
Horvat to Islanders. Tarasenko to NYR. Meier to NJ. ROR to Boston. Would certainly up the ante in the East. Has Carolina been too good?
 

denominator

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Apr 20, 2012
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The trick is, the #1 goal, I think, is to win as many cups as possible, not win a cup this year.

So 20% 10% 10% 10% is way worse than 15% 15% 15% 15%

It all depends how you define the goal.

From a sporting perspective, the goal is to win the Cup *every* year. In a vaccum, every team has a 3% chance of winning the Cup every year. Realistically this varies based on talent collection, but statistically you should win a Cup 1/32 years in the league.

From a business perspective, Cups don't really matter. All you need is a continually good enough team to sell tickets and merchandise to turn the biggest profit. Cups sell merchandise, but realistically it's diminishing returns from Conference semi-finalist to Cup winner.

I agree with your theory, but think your percentages are off. Bumping a single year to 20% is going to result in the following years being lower than 10%, and 15% is generally untenable year-by-year.

Sidenote: lol at Vancouver, Buffalo, and Arizona never winning. Honourable mention lol to Arizona, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York, Calgary, and Edmonton for hitting 32+ year droughts.
 
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Canes

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Basically the point of my second paragraph.

Malpractice? Depends on what the owner considers good practice. And as much as we as fans can bitch and moan, it's the owner's perogative in the end. And TD said from the start winning was priority number one to regaining fans and filling the arena. A Cup is icing on the cake.
Sure, but like I've said many times before I get it's the owner especially Dundon calling the shots. And I'm not a fan of the owner. I root for the the team and in this case, the coach as well. If that's his prerogative and fans accept it, that's cool too. But I'm not in this game for the owner's bottom line.

Just go and look at the Sharks. They did the compete for decades+ without winning anything. And now that they suck, fan interest interest is down bigly.
 
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