All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'll make this one last post and move on, but here's my overall position on KK to make sure it's clear.

1) His contract is a fair contract even if he never becomes more than a 3C, particularly with the cap rising. If he develops into more than that, it's a great deal. My discussion about him hasn't been about that.
2) He looks better this year than last in the limited number of games. His skating is better, but not strong. He still seems to struggle to get his shot off. I'm not sure if that's because he's deferring to Svech and Necas right now or he's having trouble finding time/space to do it or something else.
3) I have no complaints about the Svech-KK-Necas line since it's being very effective today, our best line.
4) It's only been a few games so not drawing conclusions yet. In the past, Aho was slow in getting going on the goals/points front to start the season for example so not worried about him right now. Long term I want to see more point production out of him as the 2C because I doubt Svech and Necas will be this hot all season, there will be injuries, and because the team has cup aspirations, I think the team will need more production out of the 2C.
5) I don't ascribe to the mentality of "as long as he's winning face-offs, playing good defense, winning board battles", it's fine even if he doesn't score. That's what we had in 2C Jordan Staal and the Canes needed more than 2C Jordan Staal to take the next step.

The "offer sheet" has nothing to do with my expectations. Even if I was lukewarm to it when it happened and it's fun to discuss what-ifs (as we did above), it's over and has no bearing on him today or my expectations. I'm not writing him off, saying he isn't any good, etc... My expectations are based on that he's the only real option at 2C for this team right now, that the Canes will be cup contenders and I think they'll need him to be more than Jordan Staal lite for them to accomplish that, even if Jordan Staal lite is very fair for what he's paid.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Staal’s contract was brutal for the first half as you say. We got lucky with inflation there.

That’s not really luck, that’s built in expectation of a rising cap. If it weren’t for COVID the cap is even higher right now. And same with the Koko contract, they expect that to be a decently lower % of the cap in 2030 than it is now.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I'll make this one last post and move on, but here's my overall position on KK to make sure it's clear.

1) His contract is a fair contract even if he never becomes more than a 3C, particularly with the cap rising. If he develops into more than that, it's a great deal. My discussion about him hasn't been about that.
2) He looks better this year than last in the limited number of games. His skating is better, but not strong. He still seems to struggle to get his shot off. I'm not sure if that's because he's deferring to Svech and Necas right now or he's having trouble finding time/space to do it or something else.
3) I have no complaints about the Svech-KK-Necas line since it's being very effective today, our best line.
4) It's only been a few games so not drawing conclusions yet. In the past, Aho was slow in getting going on the goals/points front to start the season for example so not worried about him right now. Long term I want to see more point production out of him as the 2C because I doubt Svech and Necas will be this hot all season, there will be injuries, and because the team has cup aspirations, I think the team will need more production out of the 2C.
5) I don't ascribe to the mentality of "as long as he's winning face-offs, playing good defense, winning board battles", it's fine even if he doesn't score. That's what we had in 2C Jordan Staal and the Canes needed more than 2C Jordan Staal to take the next step.

The "offer sheet" has nothing to do with my expectations. Even if I was lukewarm to it when it happened and it's fun to discuss, it's over and has no bearing on him today or my expectations. I'm not writing him off, saying he isn't any good, etc... My expectations are based on that he's the only real option at 2C for this team right now, that the Canes will be cup contenders and I think they'll need him to be more than Jordan Staal lite for them to accomplish that, even if Jordan Staal lite is very fair for what he's paid.

Pretty much 100% my thoughts but with the caveat on #5 that as long as Svech-Necas are scoring like they are, then really he IS just fine winning faceoffs, board battles, & playing good D is acceptable (because obviously something he's doing is helping open up the ice for the other 2). If they dry up then obviously lack of production wouldn't be acceptable. It wasn't acceptable when we had Staal because we really needed him to be more of a scorer because his wingers were mostly young Svetch, Nino, Foegele, McGinn, & Dzingleberry

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

When Patches comes back I would seriously think about moving to Necas to C if he keeps up this level of play. I think he can be the dynamic scoring "2C" we need to contend if JK isn't quite getting it done. With the way Staal is playing though I would limit his minutes quite a bit and give many of them to JK/that new 3rd line. Long ways to go but just a thought.

Patches - Aho - Teravainen
Svech - Necas - Jarvis
Stastny - Kotkaniemi - Kase (if healthy by then, probably not in which case this is Fast/Noesen)
Martinook - Staal - Fast

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

I remember Tripp talked about how he changed his skate blades but I can’t remember hearing anything about the stick. Well he and Mike did talk about shafts that one night

I heard kotkaniemi changed his underwear, too.

 

[bleedgreen]

This is interesting and I hadn't heard that, where did you hear it from?

I’m such a dork I can tell from watching. Koko went from the high lie p92 that’s Bauer’s take on the old Easton Sakic (it’s actually pretty different) to another current popular pattern the p28 which has a much lower lie. It suits his balance when he’s skating around, and now he carries the puck further from his body which is the natural result. I think part of the reason he has had such a slow release is that he tends to double clutch the puck when he catches it. I think the higher lie which raises your back elbow gets in the way especially when you use a longer stick like he does. Maybe this helps the shot, maybe it doesn’t. It’s helped his overall balance a bit though. The pattern itself is straighter through the majority of the blade with a toe hook. For shooting it’s more of a specialty tool whereas before the p92 is more of a C shape which has one big pocket to it.

Necas did the opposite last year, he always used the p28 which carries the puck further from the body. He switched to the p92. Necas struggled in the pros with the p28 because he was putting the puck too close to the dman as he tried to sprint around. The p92 helped him keep the puck closer to his feet which greatly helped his puck control. It was a good choice. I haven’t had good angles while paying attention to Necas this year but I believe he’s still using it.

Different things work for different people. In both cases the lie of the pattern is what the big change is, as it affects their posture while skating. They’re both good shooters so they can adjust to the curve itself pretty easily, which is what amateurs would be paying more attention to. Even the pros can help themselves by using something more suited to their posture and puck handling positions. It wouldn’t surprise me if neither one of them really understands what they changed, many pros don’t. Either a skills coach talked them into trying something more suited to them or they just tried one of their buddies sticks and liked it.

Hanifin did a similar thing while with us and it was awful for him, he went back to what he used to use after leaving us and I honestly think it helped him. Sometimes you’re trying to fix something that ain’t broke.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Pretty much 100% my thoughts but with the caveat on #5 that as long as Svech-Necas are scoring like they are, then really he IS just fine winning faceoffs, board battles, & playing good D is acceptable (because obviously something he's doing is helping open up the ice for the other 2). If they dry up then obviously lack of production wouldn't be acceptable. It wasn't acceptable when we had Staal because we really needed him to be more of a scorer because his wingers were mostly young Svetch, Nino, Foegele, McGinn, & Dzingleberry

Not a discussion on KK specifically as I'm done on that, but here are the regular season numbers for 1Cs and 2Cs for the most recent cup champs.

COL: MacKinnon 88 points, Kadri 87
TBL: Point 48 in 56GP, Stamkos 34 in 38GP (covid shortened)
TBL: Stamkos 66 inf 57GP, Point 64 in 66 GP (covid shortened)
STL: ROR 77 points, Schenn 54 points in 72 GP
WSH: Kuznetzov 83 points, Backstrom 71 points
PIT: Crosby 89, Malkin 72
PIT: Crosby 85, Malkin 58 in 57GP
CHI: Toews 66, Richards 37 in 76 GP
LAK: Kopitar 70 points, Carter 27G/50P in 72 games played

Only 1 cup winning team had a low point producing 2C. It can be done, but it's not very common so it's why I feel it's needed to win the up. The fact that the Canes had Staal, Brind'Amour, Weight (and Cullen) down the middle for their cup win was a difficult matchup for any team and a big reason they lifted the cup.

 

[bleedgreen]

That’s not really luck, that’s built in expectation of a rising cap. If it weren’t for COVID the cap is even higher right now. And same with the Koko contract, they expect that to be a decently lower % of the cap in 2030 than it is now.

Well at the time cap inflation and plans for contracts weren’t as dialed as they are now. The expectation was that Staal was going to score more so 6 would be a mildy fair price for that then. He never did and it took five or six years for it to not be out of whack. Feels like the market can affect things quicker now, and the whole taking a chance on a contract becoming a steal down the road is more pronounced. Not saying it didn’t exist at all back then, I just feel the way we all talked about it and took it in from the media had a whole different feel for it.

I don’t believe JR was a visionary back then about cap management with long term deals.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I don’t believe JR was a visionary back then about cap management with long term deals.

I belive that is a very diplomatic way of putting it.

 

[bleedgreen]

Not a discussion on KK specifically as I'm done on that, but here are the regular season numbers for 1Cs and 2Cs for the most recent cup champs.

COL: MacKinnon 88 points, Kadri 87
TBL: Point 48 in 56GP, Stamkos 34 in 38GP (covid shortened)
TBL: Stamkos 66 inf 57GP, Point 64 in 66 GP (covid shortened)
STL: ROR 77 points, Schenn 54 points in 72 GP
WSH: Kuznetzov 83 points, Backstrom 71 points
PIT: Crosby 89, Malkin 72
PIT: Crosby 85, Malkin 58 in 57GP
CHI: Toews 66, Richards 37 in 76 GP
LAK: Kopitar 70 points, Carter 27G/50P in 72 games played

Only 1 cup winning team had a low point producing 2C. It can be done, but it's not very common so it's why I feel it's needed to win the up. The fact that the Canes had Staal, Brind'Amour, Weight (and Cullen) down the middle for their cup win was a difficult matchup for any team and a big reason they lifted the cup.

Nice. You’re putting into words my only real concern about dropping from Tro to Koko. Tro kept close to Aho during his time here, I bet their performances pushed each other some too.

We’re a better and deeper team when Aho isn’t the only scoring center. We can get by the regular season with a lesser performance in this particular spot but to win in the playoffs you’d think we’d need better than last year….not worse. It may come down to Necas and Svech on that line, but the game is typically influenced the most down the middle. It’s not just about points, it’s about taking space and forcing things to happen. That’s where the drop is currently anyways.

Anyhoo, a fun thing to watch for the season. The hand wringing doesn’t really happen until it doesn’t work.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Not a discussion on KK specifically as I'm done on that, but here are the regular season numbers for 1Cs and 2Cs for the most recent cup champs.

COL: MacKinnon 88 points, Kadri 87
TBL: Point 48 in 56GP, Stamkos 34 in 38GP (covid shortened)
TBL: Stamkos 66 inf 57GP, Point 64 in 66 GP (covid shortened)
STL: ROR 77 points, Schenn 54 points in 72 GP
WSH: Kuznetzov 83 points, Backstrom 71 points
PIT: Crosby 89, Malkin 72
PIT: Crosby 85, Malkin 58 in 57GP
CHI: Toews 66, Richards 37 in 76 GP
LAK: Kopitar 70 points, Carter 27G/50P in 72 games played

Only 1 cup winning team had a low point producing 2C. It can be done, but it's not very common so it's why I feel it's needed to win the up. The fact that the Canes had Staal, Brind'Amour, Weight (and Cullen) down the middle for their cup win was a difficult matchup for any team and a big reason they lifted the cup.

The conversation should be deeper than this.

1. 2nd line scoring. Outside of Trocheck, we haven’t had a 2nd line in some time. We had Svech tearing it up a lot with Staal in 19-20 and Tro’s good 21-22. Not a wholistic effort though.

2. 5v5 Scoring in the playoffs, especially on the road. Aho has effectively been shut down 5v5 during our playoff runs. The exception being the Nashville series. Nashville a physical team overall, their centers are not. Most of Aho’s scoring is at home when we control the matchups or on the PP.

Getting a complete effort 2nd line and Aho scoring on the road will be paramount for us to take the next level.

 

[Ole Gil]

A pretty big discrepancy between Jordan and KK, is Jordan was playing Selke caliber defense, not just pretty good on defense. They were dominating the top lines of two top heavy teams with Fast and Nino on the wings. I don't think we're ever going to get that from KK. So he needs to produce offensively, because expecting his defensive side of the puck to reach Jordan levels is unrealistic.

A 40 point KK would be a lot more Victor Rask like than Jordan Staal like.

 

[Stickpucker]

A pretty big discrepancy between Jordan and KK, is Jordan was playing Selke caliber defense, not just pretty good on defense. They were dominating the top lines of two top heavy teams with Fast and Nino on the wings. I don't think we're ever going to get that from KK. So he needs to produce offensively, because expecting his defensive side of the puck to reach Jordan levels is unrealistic.

A 40 point KK would be a lot more Victor Rask like than Jordan Staal like.

KK doesn't need to be Staal he needs to be KK. He is getting paid a lot less cap % than Jordo was at the time.

iirc JR wasn't too happy about the Staal trade after the fact. He mentioned something during the trade about how he was supposed to be this 60 pt 2c who was held back by limited TOI. A year or two later when the Canes were stinking up the joint JR or was it PK?? was quoted as saying how Jordo needed to put up more points.

I personally never saw it as Jordo wasn't fast, didn't have a great shot, and wasn't an amazing passer. He's a big body who can win puck battles and face offs. That is very valuable in the playoffs.

IMO Jordo is a regular season letdown type player. He was ass the first half of 2021 and people were writing him off as a 20 pt player. He had a good playoffs...how much is him carrying the line vs Nino being really good for a 3lw too? How does he look w/o Nino on his wing. Back to his underwhelming regular season self. The good news is we don't need a lot out of him during the regular season these days...so he's less disappointing than when we acquired him.

KK is an entirely different player than Jordo. He is big and I hope he fills out his frame...he will if Rod has anything to say about it. I've noticed skating improvements this year...I was surprised in a few scenarios this season when he accelerated past some people. He has a better shot than Jordo by far and is already doing well in the dot. Oh and he makes way less of the cap than Jordo did which is ideal.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

A pretty big discrepancy between Jordan and KK, is Jordan was playing Selke caliber defense, not just pretty good on defense. They were dominating the top lines of two top heavy teams with Fast and Nino on the wings. I don't think we're ever going to get that from KK. So he needs to produce offensively, because expecting his defensive side of the puck to reach Jordan levels is unrealistic.

A 40 point KK would be a lot more Victor Rask like than Jordan Staal like.

First. KK will not be Jordo-like on defense. Not many Cs are.

It's easy to talk about Selke like defense the past 2 or 3 years with those guys. (Last year was an outlier offensively for his line). Don't recall his line as good on D with Svech on wing let alone the ragtag bunch in the lean years. Then, he never really became the point producer he was signed for. And this is over many, many years. Let's add in his aversion to any kind of relentless net front presence even with his big frame.

Let's not equate KK to J Staal please. At least until KK has a few more years under his belt.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The conversation should be deeper than this.

1. 2nd line scoring. Outside of Trocheck, we haven’t had a 2nd line in some time. We had Svech tearing it up a lot with Staal in 19-20 and Tro’s good 21-22. Not a wholistic effort though.

2. 5v5 Scoring in the playoffs, especially on the road. Aho has effectively been shut down 5v5 during our playoff runs. The exception being the Nashville series. Nashville a physical team overall, their centers are not. Most of Aho’s scoring is at home when we control the matchups or on the PP.

Getting a complete effort 2nd line and Aho scoring on the road will be paramount for us to take the next level.

All true. There's also the special teams component that has absolutely killed us the last 3 playoffs (both PP and PK)

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

C'mon man, that (in bold) is what fans do and have done since the beginning of fandom. It's a fun discussion that has no bearing on the actual team operations. Saying we fans shouldn't have those discussion, or other discussions of a similar vain (your draft example), or give our view of a front office on these decisions, is kind of silly.

The rest of it I won't respond to as I don't want to continue to beat it to death.

I'll respect the ceasefire but I think maybe you're missing my point a little bit in the types of conversations I'm talking about - not saying we shouldn't discuss trades but rather I think we shouldn't say trades we won are actually trades we lost because someone somewhere could fathom a better theoretical trade (Nino for Rask wasn't a win, it could've been Rask for McDavid!). Obviously absurd example but I think even to less absurd extents it's not a particularly valuable exercise unless there were actually rumors of some other alternative to compare against. I still haven't heard from you or bleed what you would have rather done with the picks and cap space except vaguely pointing to the Lightning trading for Blake Coleman an entire offseason before. Generally speaking, if your opinion is "I think we did a good job with the trade but I can't shake the feeling we could've done better", nah, just be good with the trade.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I heard kotkaniemi changed his underwear, too.

Did he take the Nuke Laloosh approach?

 

[spockBokk]

As the Bear turns…

According to Vancouver media, Bear is in the best shape of his life, just waiting on a move, Canes have been after Hoglander for a while:

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

As the Bear turns…

According to Vancouver media, Bear is in the best shape of his life, just waiting on a move, Canes have been after Hoglander for a while:

Please, please Vancouver media, speak this into existence for us.

Hoglander is a great Kase replacement assuming Kase is in and out all year (mostly out).

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'll respect the ceasefire but I think maybe you're missing my point a little bit in the types of conversations I'm talking about - not saying we shouldn't discuss trades but rather I think we shouldn't say trades we won are actually trades we lost because someone somewhere could fathom a better theoretical trade (Nino for Rask wasn't a win, it could've been Rask for McDavid!). Obviously absurd example but I think even to less absurd extents it's not a particularly valuable exercise unless there were actually rumors of some other alternative to compare against. I still haven't heard from you or bleed what you would have rather done with the picks and cap space except vaguely pointing to the Lightning trading for Blake Coleman an entire offseason before. Generally speaking, if your opinion is "I think we did a good job with the trade but I can't shake the feeling we could've done better", nah, just be good with the trade.

That's not the point I was trying to make but I'll let it go.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

That's not the point I was trying to make but I'll let it go.

Fair enough but I still don't know what you'd have preferred we did with the 1st and the 3rd and the cap space

 

[MadeUpName]

Not a discussion on KK specifically as I'm done on that, but here are the regular season numbers for 1Cs and 2Cs for the most recent cup champs.

COL: MacKinnon 88 points, Kadri 87
TBL: Point 48 in 56GP, Stamkos 34 in 38GP (covid shortened)
TBL: Stamkos 66 inf 57GP, Point 64 in 66 GP (covid shortened)
STL: ROR 77 points, Schenn 54 points in 72 GP
WSH: Kuznetzov 83 points, Backstrom 71 points
PIT: Crosby 89, Malkin 72
PIT: Crosby 85, Malkin 58 in 57GP
CHI: Toews 66, Richards 37 in 76 GP
LAK: Kopitar 70 points, Carter 27G/50P in 72 games played

Only 1 cup winning team had a low point producing 2C. It can be done, but it's not very common so it's why I feel it's needed to win the up. The fact that the Canes had Staal, Brind'Amour, Weight (and Cullen) down the middle for their cup win was a difficult matchup for any team and a big reason they lifted the cup.

Simple fix. For future Cup reporting purposes, 80+ point Necas is now the official Center for that line.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

All true. There's also the special teams component that has absolutely killed us the last 3 playoffs (both PP and PK)

Special teams. So special I forgot about them

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Not a discussion on KK specifically as I'm done on that, but here are the regular season numbers for 1Cs and 2Cs for the most recent cup champs.

COL: MacKinnon 88 points, Kadri 87
TBL: Point 48 in 56GP, Stamkos 34 in 38GP (covid shortened)
TBL: Stamkos 66 inf 57GP, Point 64 in 66 GP (covid shortened)
STL: ROR 77 points, Schenn 54 points in 72 GP
WSH: Kuznetzov 83 points, Backstrom 71 points
PIT: Crosby 89, Malkin 72
PIT: Crosby 85, Malkin 58 in 57GP
CHI: Toews 66, Richards 37 in 76 GP
LAK: Kopitar 70 points, Carter 27G/50P in 72 games played

Only 1 cup winning team had a low point producing 2C. It can be done, but it's not very common so it's why I feel it's needed to win the up. The fact that the Canes had Staal, Brind'Amour, Weight (and Cullen) down the middle for their cup win was a difficult matchup for any team and a big reason they lifted the cup.

If you're holding out hope to have a 2C like Malkin, Backstrom, Point, etc then you're gonna be waiting a while. I get what you're saying but a lot of those 2C's are really 1C's it's just the team lucked into a great situation. Koko is never going to be a Malkin but if he can to maybe Schenn/Carter levels then we would be good.

 

[Stickpucker]

iirc Rod said Necas needed to work on FO if he wanted to play C. He's taken some draws on that 2nd line and has done pretty well.

I'd still like to see Drury get a chance here soon.

I also don't know what Hoglander's game is like. He's a small feller...is he really suited for 3rd line duties with the Moose?

Not a discussion on KK specifically as I'm done on that, but here are the regular season numbers for 1Cs and 2Cs for the most recent cup champs.

COL: MacKinnon 88 points, Kadri 87
TBL: Point 48 in 56GP, Stamkos 34 in 38GP (covid shortened)
TBL: Stamkos 66 inf 57GP, Point 64 in 66 GP (covid shortened)
STL: ROR 77 points, Schenn 54 points in 72 GP
WSH: Kuznetzov 83 points, Backstrom 71 points
PIT: Crosby 89, Malkin 72
PIT: Crosby 85, Malkin 58 in 57GP
CHI: Toews 66, Richards 37 in 76 GP
LAK: Kopitar 70 points, Carter 27G/50P in 72 games played

Only 1 cup winning team had a low point producing 2C. It can be done, but it's not very common so it's why I feel it's needed to win the up. The fact that the Canes had Staal, Brind'Amour, Weight (and Cullen) down the middle for their cup win was a difficult matchup for any team and a big reason they lifted the cup.

What I'm hearing is we aren't going to be winning any cups unless the hockey gods are kind and Matthews wants to come here as a UFA.