All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[AhosDatsyukian]

I do find it fun subtly pointing out that we are fine with KK doing exactly what Jordan Staal has done for years here in Carolina, and yet nobody (including me) wants Staal as a 2C and some want him on the 4th line.

Has Staal not already been the "2C" in recent years we've had success, even with Tro? Pretty sure Staal was playing more minutes than Tro.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Has Staal not already been the "2C" in recent years we've had success, even with Tro? Pretty sure Staal was playing more minutes than Tro.

Tro played more overall minutes last season. Staal played more the season before.

Staal had the higher TOI/GP in 5v5 last season (tro played 3 more games so he had more overall minutes). Tro check had a higher 5v5 play TOI/GP in 20-21. Staal had a higher TOI/GP in all strengths in 20-21.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I'm not worried about KK as the 2C right now. I do find it fun subtly pointing out that we are fine with KK doing exactly what Jordan Staal has done for years here in Carolina, and yet nobody (including me) wants Staal as a 2C and some want him on the 4th line.

Salaries aside, I suspect it's because KK's still young and we have hope that his better hands/untapped potential will lead to more production and make him a better long term fit for a 2C as I think we'll need that as the season progresses. I see glimpses of it in his game so hopefully as he gets more comfortable in the role, we'll see more of it and he'll start providing more offense as time goes on.

I think you answered your first paragraph with your second paragraph.

Keep in mind when we traded for Jordan Staal (when he was 24) the idea was that we'd have Staal-Staal down the middle for a decade. He was traded for to be the 2C, was the de facto 2C for many years and then switched between 2 and 3C quite a bit until we acquired Trocheck really. He's never scored 50 points for the Hurricanes (in fact, he's only scored 50 pts once in his career, his last year in Pittsburgh. We bought high!). 29 points in 66 games from Kotkaniemi on the 4th line last year is comparable counting stats to several Staal seasons with the Hurricanes. And yet, I don't see a ton of people lamenting the 8th overall pick, Brandon Sutter (at the time a perfectly serviceable 3C), and Brian Dumoulin that we gave up for him as an opportunity lost. Just because he never really became that bonafide traditional 2C doesn't mean the move didn't end up being a long term gain for us. I think the same for KK. He's going to get the chance to be the 2C, and if that doesn't work out he'll settle in nicely as a long-term 3C not unlike Jordan Staal.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I do find it fun subtly pointing out that we are fine with KK doing exactly what Jordan Staal has done for years here in Carolina, and yet nobody (including me) wants Staal as a 2C and some want him on the 4th line.

And I find it fun pointing out that we already seem to have the functional equivalent of Jordan Staal for 8 more years, except he's $1.2m cheaper, and he's 22 and not nearly finished with his development as a player.

And yet somehow folks are still not "impressed" because he's not "a true 2C" even when he's been between our two top scorers.

I dunno, man. I can't help but think that if we'd traded for this contract using the exact same assets, people would be saying "that's a very shrewd Hurricanes style deal." But because of the offer sheet and the six million dollar first year and the surrounding hullabaloo, fan expectations have been out of whack since Day One with this kid. Give him a second.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I'm snipping the full text as you seem to have word diarrhea today between this and your discussions with tar heel.

I think you may have missed my point, or more likely, I did a poor job explaining it.

I was not advocating the usage of a 1st for a rental, although that's an option. I was saying that using the 1st and 3rd and $6m of cap space for a position where we didn't have a need and a that specific player may have not been the best use at the best time. There are a lot of options after that which aren't just a rental. There's a rental (like Vatanen or an upgrade on Domi) or a guy with term (like Skjei or even Trocheck) or other distressed assets like KK, or others.

I understand Dundon's approach and frankly am in the same boat as you and others, I like it. What I'm saying is I'm not sure Kotkaniemi, specifically, was the right use of those assets and cap space.

Clearly Carolina's brass liked him as they tried to trade for him before the offer-sheet so they are paid to get this right and I'm just a fan. I'll be as happy as anyone if he continues to develop and becomes a 50-60 point 2C. As I said, even if he doesn't, it's still probably a good value for his contract, but that doesn't mean it's the best use of those assets to get him.

At the end of the day, I've been a fan of this front office even if I don't agree with every move so I'm hoping they are right on this one. So far this year, the line he's on is producing so there's not much to complain about. That's all.

Edit: seems like I caught the word diarrhea bug.

Trying to restrict the diarrhea and respond in your preferred manner, I think judging moves that ultimately make the team better against moves that could have been made that would have made the team even better than that is a bit of a fool's errand. Like, yeah, using a similar package and the cap space to trade for Sam Reinhart that summer instead may have been the better move in hindsight, sure, I'll grant you that. (Long-term, who's to say, as Sam Reinhart will be a UFA in 3 seasons). But judging moves like that, to me, is a bit perfectionist, no? We do something to improve our position and yet it's a bad move because of what we could've done instead? I personally think Brett Pesce was an awesome pick by the Canes, but if we want to say it was actually a pretty meh pick because we could've picked Jusse Saros in that slot instead, like, ok, I guess.

Only 2 teams out of 32 actually participate in a given trade. Sure, we could've used the picks and cap space on Reinhart (or, whoever, take your pick of what you'd have preferred to do with them). But do we think we just get to make that trade instead of Florida, no questions asked? We saw an opportunity to get better and improve the value of our assets and we jumped at it (and we're both agreeing we're better for it, regardless of the "perceived opportunity cost"). Comparing it to some other available moves that some other teams made is a recipe for insanity I think, unless there were clearly rumors or something that we were in on something else that you would've preferred and chose the Kotkaniemi offer sheet instead.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I dunno, man. I can't help but think that if we'd traded for this contract using the exact same assets, people would be saying "that's a very shrewd Hurricanes style deal." But because of the offer sheet and the six million dollar first year and the surrounding hullabaloo, fan expectations have been out of whack since Day One with this kid. Give him a second.

Ha, I'm with you here. The difference between him and Staal is that Pittsburgh fans didn't wish him ill on the way out, it was more of a "fly free our little bird" scenario for them. Kotkaniemi had a strong, promising rookie year, his production and play dipped in years 2 and 3 (not unlike the aforementioned Staal), and Habs fans and media had no problem wishing him ill out the door. The difference between him and Staal is KK wasn't being asked to play a 3rd line role because the Habs didn't have Crosby and Malkin for him to sit behind. He also didn't stick around long enough to win a Cup with them. KK was anointed as the next 1C (then 2C after Suzuki was anointed as the next 1C), wasn't up to the task as a 20-year-old, and was hated for it. Pittsburgh doesn't really care to rub it in our face that Staal never became a bonafide 2C, because they like the guy. So we don't feel like we have to be defensive about Staal's output, he is who he is and we like him, there's never really been a pressure to live up to the return we gave for him (which is double or maybe closer to triple what we gave up for KK). If we can all just be happy we won the offer sheet and have a young guy locked in long-term instead of disappointed that KK isn't putting up 70 point seasons so that we can be shit stirrers on the main boards, we'd realize we've got an exciting 22-year-old on our hands here.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

So you are hitching your wagon to the poster that said Tony MacDonald was senile and panicked when drafting Sebastian Aho? Bold move.

I think if we use your opportunity cost method of evaluating front office actions, we can probably say Sebastion Aho in the 2nd round was a pretty meh pick given we could've had Kirill Kaprizov in that slot. So I guess Squirrels was right after all!

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

Ha, I'm with you here. The difference between him and Staal is that Pittsburgh fans didn't wish him ill on the way out, it was more of a "fly free our little bird" scenario for them. Kotkaniemi had a strong, promising rookie year, his production and play dipped in years 2 and 3 (not unlike the aforementioned Staal), and Habs fans and media had no problem wishing him ill out the door. The difference between him and Staal is KK wasn't being asked to play a 3rd line role because the Habs didn't have Crosby and Malkin for him to sit behind. He also didn't stick around long enough to win a Cup with them. KK was anointed as the next 1C (then 2C after Suzuki was anointed as the next 1C), wasn't up to the task as a 20-year-old, and was hated for it. Pittsburgh doesn't really care to rub it in our face that Staal never became a bonafide 2C, because they like the guy. So we don't feel like we have to be defensive about Staal's output, he is who he is and we like him, there's never really been a pressure to live up to the return we gave for him (which is double or maybe closer to triple what we gave up for KK). If we can all just be happy we won the offer sheet and have a young guy locked in long-term instead of disappointed that KK isn't putting up 70 point seasons so that we can be shit stirrers on the main boards, we'd realize we've got an exciting 22-year-old on our hands here.

A bit of devil's advocate here.

I bet if we could go back to some threads, oh, say 5 years ago or so, maybe more, you'd see some grumbling over Staals's play versus his cap hit. Not that there was hate, but more of a 'we expected more out of him when we gave him that big contract' type thing.

Now we are good. His 3C defensive/face off/leadership role and his contract doesn't look quite as bad.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

A bit of devil's advocate here.

I bet if we could go back to some threads, oh, say 5 years ago or so, maybe more, you'd see some grumbling over Staals's play versus his cap hit. Not that there was hate, but more of a 'we expected more out of him when we gave him that big contract' type thing.

Now we are good. His 3C defensive/face off/leadership role and his contract doesn't look quite as bad.

Probably true. But now we have the benefit of 10 years of hindsight. We should respond better to KK

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

Probably true. But now we have the benefit of 10 years of hindsight. We should respond better to KK

Yes. Which is why I'm in the 'too early to tell' camp. I do think it won't be an albatross deal no matter what line he ends up playing.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Also worth noting: KK is being paid $1.2m less than what we paid Staal 10 years ago. Any griping about Staal’s contract from 5 years ago probably should be viewed in the lens of how much higher his cap hit was as a percentage of the cap in 2017 than KK’s will be in 2026.

 

[bleedgreen]

Has Staal not already been the "2C" in recent years we've had success, even with Tro? Pretty sure Staal was playing more minutes than Tro.

There’s been some talk of this and it just feels like semantics. Trocheck was the second scoring line center and always was. Rod utilizes Staal more than the average coach might use his third line, and you have to remember Rod himself was used as a second center and a checking line center at the same time. The 2006 team featured Rod’s checking line as the number two and the Cullen scoring line as number three. He doesn’t full on do that as coach it seems, he used Trocheck in scoring situations and was heavy on Staal usage defensively obviously. He also trusted Trocheck very much defensively….but always deferred to Staal when needed. To me that’s likely the difference here when the argument is made that Staal is actually still the second center. Trocheck for all intents and purposes was the 2C, and he was not shielded defensively. Rod would play Staal all game if he could regardless of how Tro played.

It seems to be used here to diminish Trocheck’s impact while also being used to give Koko some space as he’s feeling out his role. I’m fine with the later but the former is silly. Watched a bit of some Ranger games and Tro unsurprisingly stands out significantly more than Koko is capable of. I never thought we would sign Tro and have no issues with him moving on, we made the best of a situation we saw coming. I would think we can just acknowledge at this point there’s a drop off at that spot that we anticipated and are just doing with best we can for now, while hoping Koko can be more than he seems as he’s young enough to improve still.

I know I always dork out about the sticks/patterns but koko changed his this off season for the better, much like Necas. He actually did the opposite switch Necas did last year, and it makes him look a bit more natural out there as he’s using a lower lie. It suits him and has him leaning a bit more vs being too upright. It’s actually a huge switch so there’s a part of me that wonders if more offense comes as he gets used to it.

 

[cptjeff]

Also worth noting: KK is being paid $1.2m less than what we paid Staal 10 years ago. Any griping about Staal’s contract from 5 years ago probably should be viewed in the lens of how much higher his cap hit was as a percentage of the cap in 2017 than KK’s will be in 2026.

Yep, that contract never worked out to be a good deal. It was a flat out boat anchor some years, but fortunately/unfortunately never really posed a cap issue for most of its run because we weren't spending to the cap. KK is cheaper in real dollars, much cheaper in percentage, *especially* how given the cap is expected to go up dramatically in the next couple years, and still has a lot of potential upside. I just don't get the outrage at this point. Would I prefer him to be playing 3C? Sure. But for now with the wings he has, it's working. Unlike Staal, he doesn't suck all life out of otherwise strong offensive players, so that makes him our second line center right now. It's imperfect, but so are all human endeavors.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Changing the topic slightly and looking to next offseason...

We have an upcoming year where no one really needs a raise (unless we choose to re-sign Andersen which I don't think we will), Staal likely takes a paycut, Pacioretty comes off the books, and that's really it for major cap-impacting items. With the cap rising fairly significantly, we'll have some cap room to play with. However, the year after that is the big one. Aho will get a modest raise, Teuvo if he finds his game and we choose to re-sign him. Small sample but Necas is likely playing himself into the contract we all thought he'd get this time around. Jarvis gets his big boy contract. Skjei and Pesce both UFAs.

Long story short - we likely have cap space to play with this upcoming offseason but should not use it on anything extending past that season because the 2024 summer will be a doozy. Therefore... Marleau trade 2.0 anyone? We are going to have a lot of space to use up but only for the one year. Maybe we do a Pacioretty-type trade as well (we might end up with the space to do both).

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Who here is diminishing Tro's play?

Would Tro be a better scoring 2C than KK right now? Yes. Can you afford the best player at every position? No. Is KK doing well enough in his current role to justify his salary? Yes. Does KK have the potential to grow into that higher scoring 2C role? Yes. Would he be an acceptable 3C for the next 8 years at that price if his growth trajectory levels off? Yes.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yep, that contract never worked out to be a good deal. It was a flat out boat anchor some years, but fortunately/unfortunately never really posed a cap issue for most of its run because we weren't spending to the cap. KK is cheaper in real dollars, much cheaper in percentage, *especially* how given the cap is expected to go up dramatically in the next couple years, and still has a lot of potential upside. I just don't get the outrage at this point. Would I prefer him to be playing 3C? Sure. But for now with the wings he has, it's working. Unlike Staal, he doesn't suck all life out of otherwise strong offensive players, so that makes him our second line center right now. It's imperfect, but so are all human endeavors.

For me there’s no outrage. This is the stuff we talk about between games and during the season. Nothing more or less for me. For awhile the need to defend our management to the world made it difficult to even have the conversation about honestly assessing where the kid is at this point. It’s good imo that we can have honest conversation about it.

Staal’s contract was brutal for the first half as you say. We got lucky with inflation there.

 

[Deon Thompson]

And I find it fun pointing out that we already seen to have the functional equivalent of Jordan Staal for 8 more years, except he's $1.2m cheaper, and he's 22 and not nearly finished with his development as a player.

And yet somehow folks are still not "impressed" because he's not "a true 2C" even when he's been between our two top scorers.

I dunno, man. I can't help but think that if we'd traded for this contract using the exact same assets, people would be saying "that's a very shrewd Hurricanes style deal." But because of the offer sheet and the six million dollar first year and the surrounding hullabaloo, fan expectations have been out of whack since Day One with this kid. Give him a second.

I agree with your overall point, but I reckon the bolded is quite a bit strong. Koko has looked quite adept defensively and as a playdriver, but Jordan Staal is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, and has earned that reputation against much tougher competition to date.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Changing the topic slightly and looking to next offseason...

We have an upcoming year where no one really needs a raise (unless we choose to re-sign Andersen which I don't think we will), Staal likely takes a paycut, Pacioretty comes off the books, and that's really it for major cap-impacting items. With the cap rising fairly significantly, we'll have some cap room to play with. However, the year after that is the big one. Aho will get a modest raise, Teuvo if he finds his game and we choose to re-sign him. Small sample but Necas is likely playing himself into the contract we all thought he'd get this time around. Jarvis gets his big boy contract. Skjei and Pesce both UFAs.

Long story short - we likely have cap space to play with this upcoming offseason but should not use it on anything extending past that season because the 2024 summer will be a doozy. Therefore... Marleau trade 2.0 anyone? We are going to have a lot of space to use up but only for the one year. Maybe we do a Pacioretty-type trade as well (we might end up with the space to do both).

Pavelski on a 1 year deal to play with his buddy?

Depending on what we do in goal, we could still afford 1 bigger, long term deal.

 

[bleedgreen]

Who here is diminishing Tro's play?

Would Tro be a better scoring 2C than KK right now? Yes. Can you afford the best player at every position? No. Is KK doing well enough in his current role to justify his salary? Yes. Does KK have the potential to grow into that higher scoring 2C role? Yes. Would he be an acceptable 3C for the next 8 years at that price if his growth transcript levels off? Yes.

Everything but the first sentence is exactly what I’m saying…..so we agree.

Tro’s impact was often diminished by some posters over the last couple of years through the off season. Wasn’t really the point.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Trying to restrict the diarrhea and respond in your preferred manner, I think judging moves that ultimately make the team better against moves that could have been made that would have made the team even better than that is a bit of a fool's errand. Like, yeah, using a similar package and the cap space to trade for Sam Reinhart that summer instead may have been the better move in hindsight, sure, I'll grant you that. (Long-term, who's to say, as Sam Reinhart will be a UFA in 3 seasons). But judging moves like that, to me, is a bit perfectionist, no? We do something to improve our position and yet it's a bad move because of what we could've done instead? I personally think Brett Pesce was an awesome pick by the Canes, but if we want to say it was actually a pretty meh pick because we could've picked Jusse Saros in that slot instead, like, ok, I guess.

Only 2 teams out of 32 actually participate in a given trade. Sure, we could've used the picks and cap space on Reinhart (or, whoever, take your pick of what you'd have preferred to do with them). But do we think we just get to make that trade instead of Florida, no questions asked? We saw an opportunity to get better and improve the value of our assets and we jumped at it (and we're both agreeing we're better for it, regardless of the "perceived opportunity cost"). Comparing it to some other available moves that some other teams made is a recipe for insanity I think, unless there were clearly rumors or something that we were in on something else that you would've preferred and chose the Kotkaniemi offer sheet instead.

C'mon man, that (in bold) is what fans do and have done since the beginning of fandom. It's a fun discussion that has no bearing on the actual team operations. Saying we fans shouldn't have those discussion, or other discussions of a similar vain (your draft example), or give our view of a front office on these decisions, is kind of silly.

The rest of it I won't respond to as I don't want to continue to beat it to death.

 

[Svechhammer]

I dunno, man. I can't help but think that if we'd traded for this contract using the exact same assets, people would be saying "that's a very shrewd Hurricanes style deal." But because of the offer sheet and the six million dollar first year and the surrounding hullabaloo, fan expectations have been out of whack since Day One with this kid. Give him a second.

This

People just can't separate themselves from the offer sheet and think that he is now forever a $6m player when that just isn't what we have. He's a $4.5m center who will be playing 2nd or 3rd line minutes for us for the next 8 years, until he's 30. If we had used a 1st and 3rd to trade for that straight up, people would be praising the move left and right. There's this growing expectation that he needs to be some elite player or he's a bust, and its just dumb.

He's currently centering one of the most productive lines in the league. At $4.5m a year for the next 8 years. And all we gave up was cash our owner was fine with burning, a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick. And, lets be honest, if Montreal gets a player who contributes to the level that Kotkaniemi has already contributed with the 1st or 3rd they got from us, they're lucky.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Has Staal not already been the "2C" in recent years we've had success, even with Tro? Pretty sure Staal was playing more minutes than Tro.

The past two seasons combined TOI/GP:

AHO: 19:10
TRO: 18:00
STAAL: 17:23

Their ES TOI was almost identical 13:43 vs. 13:36. TRO got more PP time, Staal got more PK time.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think if we use your opportunity cost method of evaluating front office actions, we can probably say Sebastion Aho in the 2nd round was a pretty meh pick given we could've had Kirill Kaprizov in that slot. So I guess Squirrels was right after all!

Well, using your view of Dundon's long term approach, Aho as a Hurricane under team control for 8 years (3 ELC and 5 at $8.5M) is a better investment that Kaprizov for 6 years (1 ELC and 5 at $9M). So I guess he wasn't right after all.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I know I always dork out about the sticks/patterns but koko changed his this off season for the better, much like Necas. He actually did the opposite switch Necas did last year, and it makes him look a bit more natural out there as he’s using a lower lie. It suits him and has him leaning a bit more vs being too upright. It’s actually a huge switch so there’s a part of me that wonders if more offense comes as he gets used to it.

This is interesting and I hadn't heard that, where did you hear it from?

 

[raynman]

This is interesting and I hadn't heard that, where did you hear it from?

I remember Tripp talked about how he changed his skate blades but I can’t remember hearing anything about the stick. Well he and Mike did talk about shafts that one night