All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[A Star is Burns]

I'm one of the folks that saw and sees the big risk of the offer sheet and contract, but I've liked Koko's game and fit on that line this year. Of course, he will ultimately need to produce in any role. I'm not sure why we need to extrapolate anything out at this point to make a determination of him being good or bad now and in the future but to each their own. I think it's far too early to tell.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

This all makes perfect sense. There's another aspect to this though. For a team like Carolina that is a cup contender, the value of a 1st and 3rd round pick isn't necessarily the guy you might draft with them, it's the acquisition opportunity they allow. The question for me is "was that the best use of those assets"? I didn't feel it helped fill a big need, at least short term, but we'll never know for sure, so it's speculation. It also prevented the team from making any meaningful deals at the deadline, both because of the cap hit and not having a 1st round pick.

Tampa Bay used their picks for deadline deals/trades for guys with a year or two on the deals (Coleman, Goodrow, etc..) to give them an element they didn't have and push them over the top. I felt Carolina was in a similar situation last year (and this year) and maybe could have made better use of those assets.

That's why I was lukewarm on the offer sheet from the start. I had no issue losing the picks for Kotkaniemi (in terms of losing out on draftees), because as you said, that, in a vacuum, is worth doing.

Kotkaniemi's salary is commensurate with a 3C, particularly as the cap rises so if he plateaus as that, it's still a good deal. If he becomes more than that, it's a bargain. I think the team needs him to be more than that this year for them to be a contender. It's early and the line is playing awesome, so it's not a big concern right now.

I think this dovetails into another market inefficiency the Canes think they’ve identified which is not paying market prices for short-term pieces. Dundon said something on a recent Adam Gold podcast and I loved it because he phrased it exactly the way I think about it in my head. Winning the Cup requires luck. You build a very very good team to maximize that luck, but even the best team in a decade at the start of the playoffs only has like a 30% chance to win the Cup, max. Because of that, going "all in" mathematically doesn't make as much sense as sustaining success (meaning, mortgaging a future year of having a 15% chance of winning the Cup isn't worth improving your odds this year by 3%, or whatever). I don't think you're ever going to see this team (Waddell, Dundon) use a 1st round pick for a true rental, regardless of our regular season success.

So in answering the question "was that the best use of those assets", we gotta compare the overall impact. Is 9 years of Jesperi Kotkaniemi on the roster (thru his entire prime) more valuable to this organization than adding Claude Giroux for 20 games plus the playoffs last year? In the grand scheme of things, almost certainly yes. Ask the Panthers if they're psyched to be out the 1st, 3rd, and Owen Tippett that those 20 games of Giroux cost them.

Dundon thinks he can beat the game and actually create a method of operations that keeps the Canes at the top of the standings perpetually, without having to cyclically build up and tear down like the Capitals, Penguins, Avalanche, Lightning, and basically every other dominant team in our era have. The proof will eventually be in the pudding, but so far you can look at what the team is doing (maintaining flexibility, not tying themselves to anchor contracts that look good now but hurt the team later, drafting for volume to maximize chances of hitting and not needing top 5 picks, weaponizing cap space when you have it instead of signing guys just for the sake of signing them, etc.) and see that they're onto something. I think not being the Lightning who don't have a 1st round pick until 2025, or the Panthers who don't have a 1st round pick until 2026, or the Blackhawks who went all in for as long as they did and are now right back where they were in 2007 with no attendance and no hope, is a worthwhile problem to try to solve.

Part of the reason these assets are given away like this is self-preserving behavior by GMs. GMs don't actually do the things that most benefit a franchise. GMs do the things that make it most likely for them to keep their jobs. Mortgaging the future for the present is perfectly reasonable if you aren't actually sure you'll be there in 3 years. Dundon's going to have none of that. The standings aren't how Dundon is going to evaluate Waddell, he's going to evaluate him on his process and decision-making. So Waddell, unlike many GMs in the league, has the luxury of making the measured decisions that actually benefit the franchise in the long-term, rather than the splashy short-term deals that mortgage significant parts of the future for minimal returns in the present.

I don't fanboy many players but I am 100% a fanboy of the front office's process and mindset since 2018. I think the Canes have a real chance to change a lot about the way front offices around the league do their business, and I'm hopeful that the league adapts slowly enough that the Canes can gain significant and permanent advantages before they catch on.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

all the noise out of Vancouver is we asked Hogs for Bear for quite some time but Vancouver has balked.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

all the noise out of Vancouver is we asked Hogs for Bear for quite some time but Vancouver has balked.

I would like that trade. Hopefully the report of recent momentum is VAN coming back around after seeing how terrible their D has been so far this year

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I think this dovetails into another market inefficiency the Canes think they’ve identified which is not paying market prices for short-term pieces. Dundon said something on a recent Adam Gold podcast and I loved it because he phrased it exactly the way I think about it in my head. Winning the Cup requires luck. You build a very very good team to maximize that luck, but even the best team in a decade at the start of the playoffs only has like a 30% chance to win the Cup, max. Because of that, going "all in" mathematically doesn't make as much sense as sustaining success (meaning, mortgaging a future year of having a 15% chance of winning the Cup isn't worth improving your odds this year by 3%, or whatever). I don't think you're ever going to see this team (Waddell, Dundon) use a 1st round pick for a true rental, regardless of our regular season success.

So in answering the question "was that the best use of those assets", we gotta compare the overall impact. Is 9 years of Jesperi Kotkaniemi on the roster (thru his entire prime) more valuable to this organization than adding Claude Giroux for 20 games plus the playoffs last year? In the grand scheme of things, almost certainly yes. Ask the Panthers if they're psyched to be out the 1st, 3rd, and Owen Tippett that those 20 games of Giroux cost them.

Dundon thinks he can beat the game and actually create a method of operations that keeps the Canes at the top of the standings perpetually, without having to cyclically build up and tear down like the Capitals, Penguins, Avalanche, Lightning, and basically every other dominant team in our era have. The proof will eventually be in the pudding, but so far you can look at what the team is doing (maintaining flexibility, not tying themselves to anchor contracts that look good now but hurt the team later, drafting for volume to maximize chances of hitting and not needing top 5 picks, weaponizing cap space when you have it instead of signing guys just for the sake of signing them, etc.) and see that they're onto something. I think not being the Lightning who don't have a 1st round pick until 2025, or the Panthers who don't have a 1st round pick until 2026, or the Blackhawks who went all in for as long as they did and are now right back where they were in 2007 with no attendance and no hope, is a worthwhile problem to try to solve.

Part of the reason these assets are given away like this is self-preserving behavior by GMs. GMs don't actually do the things that most benefit a franchise. GMs do the things that make it most likely for them to keep their jobs. Mortgaging the future for the present is perfectly reasonable if you aren't actually sure you'll be there in 3 years. Dundon's going to have none of that. The standings aren't how Dundon is going to evaluate Waddell, he's going to evaluate him on his process and decision-making. So Waddell, unlike many GMs in the league, has the luxury of making the measured decisions that actually benefit the franchise in the long-term, rather than the splashy short-term deals that mortgage significant parts of the future for minimal returns in the present.

I don't fanboy many players but I am 100% a fanboy of the front office's process and mindset since 2018. I think the Canes have a real chance to change a lot about the way front offices around the league do their business, and I'm hopeful that the league adapts slowly enough that the Canes can gain significant and permanent advantages before they catch on.

This is pretty much it save for putting it all on DW to make the decisions. The whole point of the Borg is in reaching a concensus and then letting DW do his thing negotiating w agents and GMs. Which is why DW is satisfied with his job. It's not all on his shoulders...

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Hoglander would be the ideal low-floor, high-ceiling guy for Carolina's situation. High bust factor, but if every flaw is ironed out (again, not likely at all, but still), he could be the ideal long-term top-6 successor post-2024 UFA. I'm not shocked that the Canes are holding out for their man and believe that they can acquire him, because Vancouver's defense is truly that horrific and they have very little leverage if their goal is truly playoffs.

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

I think this dovetails into another market inefficiency the Canes think they’ve identified which is not paying market prices for short-term pieces. Dundon said something on a recent Adam Gold podcast and I loved it because he phrased it exactly the way I think about it in my head. Winning the Cup requires luck. You build a very very good team to maximize that luck, but even the best team in a decade at the start of the playoffs only has like a 30% chance to win the Cup, max. Because of that, going "all in" mathematically doesn't make as much sense as sustaining success (meaning, mortgaging a future year of having a 15% chance of winning the Cup isn't worth improving your odds this year by 3%, or whatever). I don't think you're ever going to see this team (Waddell, Dundon) use a 1st round pick for a true rental, regardless of our regular season success.

So in answering the question "was that the best use of those assets", we gotta compare the overall impact. Is 9 years of Jesperi Kotkaniemi on the roster (thru his entire prime) more valuable to this organization than adding Claude Giroux for 20 games plus the playoffs last year? In the grand scheme of things, almost certainly yes. Ask the Panthers if they're psyched to be out the 1st, 3rd, and Owen Tippett that those 20 games of Giroux cost them.

Dundon thinks he can beat the game and actually create a method of operations that keeps the Canes at the top of the standings perpetually, without having to cyclically build up and tear down like the Capitals, Penguins, Avalanche, Lightning, and basically every other dominant team in our era have. The proof will eventually be in the pudding, but so far you can look at what the team is doing (maintaining flexibility, not tying themselves to anchor contracts that look good now but hurt the team later, drafting for volume to maximize chances of hitting and not needing top 5 picks, weaponizing cap space when you have it instead of signing guys just for the sake of signing them, etc.) and see that they're onto something. I think not being the Lightning who don't have a 1st round pick until 2025, or the Panthers who don't have a 1st round pick until 2026, or the Blackhawks who went all in for as long as they did and are now right back where they were in 2007 with no attendance and no hope, is a worthwhile problem to try to solve.

Part of the reason these assets are given away like this is self-preserving behavior by GMs. GMs don't actually do the things that most benefit a franchise. GMs do the things that make it most likely for them to keep their jobs. Mortgaging the future for the present is perfectly reasonable if you aren't actually sure you'll be there in 3 years. Dundon's going to have none of that. The standings aren't how Dundon is going to evaluate Waddell, he's going to evaluate him on his process and decision-making. So Waddell, unlike many GMs in the league, has the luxury of making the measured decisions that actually benefit the franchise in the long-term, rather than the splashy short-term deals that mortgage significant parts of the future for minimal returns in the present.

I don't fanboy many players but I am 100% a fanboy of the front office's process and mindset since 2018. I think the Canes have a real chance to change a lot about the way front offices around the league do their business, and I'm hopeful that the league adapts slowly enough that the Canes can gain significant and permanent advantages before they catch on.

Great post. Appreciate the time taken to write it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think this dovetails into another market inefficiency the Canes think they’ve identified which is not paying market prices for short-term pieces.

I'm snipping the full text as you seem to have word diarrhea today between this and your discussions with tar heel.

I think you may have missed my point, or more likely, I did a poor job explaining it.

I was not advocating the usage of a 1st for a rental, although that's an option. I was saying that using the 1st and 3rd and $6m of cap space for a position where we didn't have a need and a that specific player may have not been the best use at the best time. There are a lot of options after that which aren't just a rental. There's a rental (like Vatanen or an upgrade on Domi) or a guy with term (like Skjei or even Trocheck) or other distressed assets like KK, or others.

I understand Dundon's approach and frankly am in the same boat as you and others, I like it. What I'm saying is I'm not sure Kotkaniemi, specifically, was the right use of those assets and cap space.

Clearly Carolina's brass liked him as they tried to trade for him before the offer-sheet so they are paid to get this right and I'm just a fan. I'll be as happy as anyone if he continues to develop and becomes a 50-60 point 2C. As I said, even if he doesn't, it's still probably a good value for his contract, but that doesn't mean it's the best use of those assets to get him.

At the end of the day, I've been a fan of this front office even if I don't agree with every move so I'm hoping they are right on this one. So far this year, the line he's on is producing so there's not much to complain about. That's all.

Edit: seems like I caught the word diarrhea bug.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

@FlyingSquirrels appreciates my diarrhea in a way that others don’t so he’s my favorite.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

@FlyingSquirrels appreciates my diarrhea in a way that others don’t so he’s my favorite.

I just want to see you and @tarheelhockey at the Bojangles

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I just want to see you and @tarheelhockey at the Bojangles

Just stubbornly shooting diarrhea at each other. Probably not a first in the Bojangles parking lot.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just stubbornly shooting diarrhea at each other. Probably not a first in the Bojangles parking lot.

You might be confusing it with Taco Bell.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

@FlyingSquirrels appreciates my diarrhea in a way that others don’t so he’s my favorite.

So you are hitching your wagon to the poster that said Tony MacDonald was senile and panicked when drafting Sebastian Aho? Bold move.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'm snipping the full text as you seem to have word diarrhea today between this and your discussions with tar heel.

I think you may have missed my point, or more likely, I did a poor job explaining it.

I was not advocating the usage of a 1st for a rental, although that's an option. I was saying that using the 1st and 3rd and $6m of cap space for a position where we didn't have a need and a that specific player may have not been the best use at the best time. There are a lot of options after that which aren't just a rental. There's a rental (like Vatanen or an upgrade on Domi) or a guy with term (like Skjei or even Trocheck) or other distressed assets like KK, or others.

I understand Dundon's approach and frankly am in the same boat as you and others, I like it. What I'm saying is I'm not sure Kotkaniemi, specifically, was the right use of those assets and cap space.

Clearly Carolina's brass liked him as they tried to trade for him before the offer-sheet so they are paid to get this right and I'm just a fan. I'll be as happy as anyone if he continues to develop and becomes a 50-60 point 2C. As I said, even if he doesn't, it's still probably a good value for his contract, but that doesn't mean it's the best use of those assets to get him.

At the end of the day, I've been a fan of this front office even if I don't agree with every move so I'm hoping they are right on this one. So far this year, the line he's on is producing so there's not much to complain about. That's all.

Edit: seems like I caught the word diarrhea bug.

Agreed. I’m fine with our general approach, and at the same time not remotely convinced the Koko move was the right move. I doubt that’ll ever really hurt that bad but I wonder what other moves we may have made if we hadn’t committed to him. To me he’s a good attempt at a Staal replacement so I also agree we’re putting him a role that’s likely over his head. He’s not going anywhere, and I’m rooting for him. The fancy stat arguments trying to justify the move or try to make him seem more than he is…..already smack of people practicing for their main board arguments on the topic.

He’s fine, the other two don’t need offensive help so far. When they do he has to be ready to do more, and I don’t know that he’ll be enough in the playoffs….when we really need to put the best foot forward right now.

 

[Vagrant]

Just a few clarifications on the points outlined here. 1st, speaking of Jack Drury. This is a player that has been given 1/100th, statistically, the opportunity to perform as Kotkaniemi. The reasons for this are vast, but I think opportunity in the NHL is an incredibly underrated aspect of who becomes successful and who doesn't, because I cannot be convinced there are certain players I have scouted over the years that wouldn't have had success with a substantial uptick in opportunity. The reason that top 5 overall picks rarely bust anymore is not only that scouting has improved, but opportunity is usually provided as quickly as possible within reason for them to gain a comfort level in the league. Is there any way to determine what would have been the case had Jack Drury been offered the same trajectory? My opinion on that is no. This goes back to a larger discussion on development, but from every indication Jack Drury has performed superior to expectations and has never been maxed out in terms of here is as much opportunity as you can handle, do with it what you will. That is the case with Kotkaniemi. The discussion if this was earned or granted is disputable, but I find that as I have gotten older and seen the randomness of who finds success and who doesn't find it, the timing is such an essential part of the equation and not because the player is physically "ready" so much as mentally prepared for the opportunity and not overwhelmed by the impact their immediate results will have on their long term prospects, which is virtually impossible to have the confidence to do. Players that looked like different guys in the AHL because of their inference that the league was easier and made them play more relaxed versions of their game is an endless list. Some guys can recover from the yo-yo treatment they get as late picks or undrafted guys, but most never do. I'm not suggesting this is what we've done with Drury, at least not to this point. Do I personally feel he would look better between Necas and Svech right now? I do. I saw what he did with players that were outmatching the AHL in the playoffs and he can keep pace. That's such a comfortable spot.

Clarifying on KK a bit, my issue was less the gamble and more the recognition that it was hasty and allowing him to slot naturally in the lineup until he earns it and not being birthrighted icetime because of his draft status, his cap hit percentage, and other factors that seem like face saving efforts to will him into what they wanted him to become by flanking him with our most talented wingers and having him still not produce. The issue is that we're in the dead middle of our window as our defense starts to approach 30 and our goalie fights questions about his health into his early to mid 30's. Do you use that much of your cap hit percentage on a player who isn't sure what he is yet? I think it's a bit of a misallocation, but a forgivable one. Had it worked, it would have been nearly prescient to have predetermined Trochek's replacement internally the offseason before he came due. This is the first I have seen of this front office and coaching staff in particular hammering a round peg into a square hole in such an important position in the lineup. As a deviation from our normal meritocracy, that is concerning to me and hopefully not indicative of a trend. But as all are, this franchise is allowed to miss sometimes. Especially with the frequency with which they've hit. They've earned it.

Again, I also wish KK the best, but I won't lie for him insofar as what I see vs. the opportunity cost he's absorbing in salary, icetime, and role bequeathment.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Koko is a long term play. Would the org like to see some more short term dividends? Of course but they saw the opportunity to get a very young player, with high upside for much less than what he would normally cost and are betting on it to work out in their favour eventually. The 8 year contract at a medium cost could look insanely good in a year or two and for a long time, or it could end up meh. Unlikely that Koko completely busts out as he seems to have a fairly high floor (and again he’s still super young) but of course that’s a possibility.

The Svech - Koko - Necas line is working right now. Obviously Svech and Necas are leading the way but there is something to be said for someone who can fit in and do the job that’s needed. Svech is a bull and Necas is a horse. I do think Koko playing a simple game and keeping the puck moving in the right direction so the other guys can do their thing has solid value. Maybe he needs to be a bit more aggressive but both those guys like the puck on their stick and there’s only so much to go around.

Just like how Jarvis fills a particular role with Aho and TT. If he was a super pass happy east west type player, that just might be too much of the same thing. Good lines are usually effective because they have balance. Look at the perfection line in Boston… Matthews, Marner and (insert hard nosed net front presence forward).

If Koko can win faceoffs, play good defence, win puck/board battles and create opportunities for Svech and Necas to run wild then we should be all for that.

 

[Vagrant]

Perhaps so, but I can't think of a single NHL forward that has ever had sustained success with shooting less than 150 times per season, and that's almost double the output that KK had last season per game. He would be an anomaly of the highest degree to be able to shoot 90-100 times a season and stick in the Top 6. the sample size is significant and less results based than goals. can anybody think of a comparable other than generational passers like Thornton?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The biggest improvement I've seen from KK this year compared to last is in the faceoff circle. He's been killing it this year, and it's a big reason why that line has had the success it has thus far.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Perhaps so, but I can't think of a single NHL forward that has ever had sustained success with shooting less than 150 times per season, and that's almost double the output that KK had last season per game. He would be an anomaly of the highest degree to be able to shoot 90-100 times a season and stick in the Top 6. the sample size is significant and less results based than goals. can anybody think of a comparable other than generational passers like Thornton?

Like yeah… he should definitely shoot more. He has a pretty good shot but his bread and butter seems like it would be scoring goals from the hash marks in. Svech and Necas tend to shoot from further out since they both have laser beams. I think Koko can have success following up plays and planting himself near the blue paint. Be like Staal with hopefully much much better hands.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Be like Staal with hopefully much much better hands.

It feels to me like the org was basically looking for this from KK the whole time, and felt like acquiring a young cost-controlled Jordan Staal for 8 years was worth the money+assets.

If he stays around 60% in faceoffs, doesn't regress in any other way, continues to drive Corsi, can score 15-20 goals, and fits well between two offensive studs, then he's already worth the money and the assets, in year 2, at age 22, no matter what the eye test says. And he will likely get better; it's not like good players peak at 22.

This is some Marek Malik level hand-wringing. Remember that guy? Some folks flat out hated that guy because he wasn't what they expected him to be. He was 6'6", but he didn't hit, and so many fans hated him for that, so they ignored what he was -- a solid D-man with incredible reach and a good stick who won the league Plus/Minus trophy two years after we traded him to Vancouver for Jan Hlavac and Harold Druken. And then he scored maybe the most memorable shootout goal in league history for the Rangers a couple of years after that.

I dunno. If we're worrying about KK as our 2C right now, it's because we're looking for things to worry about.

 

[bleedgreen]

I kind of want Drury to get called up and get involved in the conversation because it wouldn’t surprise me if he could outplay Koko. Not that I think Drury is a solution for that line either. I think I would just get a kick out of the battle.

 

[Borsig]

I would like that trade. Hopefully the report of recent momentum is VAN coming back around after seeing how terrible their D has been so far this year

Bear won't make it better lol

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I dunno. If we're worrying about KK as our 2C right now, it's because we're looking for things to worry about.

I think it's more that there's too much time between games so we create stuff to talk about to fill the time.

I'm not worried about KK as the 2C right now. I do find it fun subtly pointing out that we are fine with KK doing exactly what Jordan Staal has done for years here in Carolina, and yet nobody (including me) wants Staal as a 2C and some want him on the 4th line.

Salaries aside, I suspect it's because KK's still young and we have hope that his better hands/untapped potential will lead to more production and make him a better long term fit for a 2C as I think we'll need that as the season progresses. I see glimpses of it in his game so hopefully as he gets more comfortable in the role, we'll see more of it and he'll start providing more offense as time goes on.

Either way, even if long term he's never more than a 3C, it's still a good deal with his contract, particularly as the cap goes up.

With all the discussion about him: Incoming hat trick next game so many posters can pull out the "eat crow sunshine".

 

[bleedgreen]

I think it's more that there's too much time between games so we create stuff to talk about to fill the time.

I'm not worried about KK as the 2C right now. I do find it fun subtly pointing out that we are fine with KK doing exactly what Jordan Staal has done for years here in Carolina, and yet nobody (including me) wants Staal as a 2C and some want him on the 4th line.

Salaries aside, I suspect it's because KK's still young and we have hope that his better hands/untapped potential will lead to more production and make him a better long term fit for a 2C as I think we'll need that as the season progresses. I see glimpses of it in his game so hopefully as he gets more comfortable in the role, we'll see more of it and he'll start providing more offense as time goes on.

Either way, even if long term he's never more than a 3C, it's still a good deal with his contract, particularly as the cap goes up.

With all the discussion about him: Incoming hat trick next game so many posters can pull out the "eat crow sunshine".

I’m not fine with him being what JStaal was for years. I think we need the “second” center because it bumps Staal down and allows him to play his style on a true checking line while the team benefits from another scoring center. If we think Koko is bringing what Staal brings vs replacing Tro it’s a net loss imo and one that could matter in the end. It works on some levels because Staal still stays where he belongs and just having the three centers gave the lines overall some better definition.

If we gain a more true second center in time, and Koko settles into Staal’s checking line role then I think it’s great.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I’m not fine with him being what JStaal was for years. I think we need the “second” center because it bumps Staal down and allows him to play his style on a true checking line.

Yeah, I was using the term “we” as a general board sentiment as I’ve seen multiple people post/comment on/like it; and not meant as every single poster.