All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Am I though? Im not making claims that he is a great 2C or projecting point total or anything else that should have a larger sample size. Im just stating that he is at least out there driving some offense. He isn’t as pedestrian as others are making him out to be.

Maybe it's nitpicking, but your original statement that I responded to said: "Koko has pretty high individual numbers according to Naturalstattrick."

When adjusted for TOI, they don't really look that high compared to the rest of the Canes forwards. He's like 8th, 9th, 10th in most categories. "Pretty high" is a bit subjective so maybe you meant it differently, but I just don't think those numbers are very meaningful right now since 1 or 2 events could change things dramatically and with smaller sample sizes, the level of competition hasn't had a chance to balance out.

It's not a big deal, but that's where I was coming from.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Cory Lav seeing the Kotkaniemi situation the same as some of us:

“
Kotkaniemi’s numbers won’t yet make Canadiens fans’ eyes bleed (just two assists), but he’s been the perfect match for Svechnikov and Necas.

While Trocheck was more likely to try and make something happen on his own — remember all the one-on-one “Trodrags” the center would attempt when entering the offensive zone? — Kotkaniemi plays a simpler game that complements the more dynamic Svechnikov and Necas.

The 22-year-old is quick to get the puck on his wingers’ sticks, wins battles in the corners and is responsible defensively.”

I like him....his skating is much better this year, has been superb on face offs (almost 60%), uses his size and FWIW when your wingers are having great years you must be doing something right. At 22, a long runway before he reaches his full potential.

Whether he stays at 2C or ultimately morphs to Staal's replacement I'm glad he is signed to a long contract.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

A quick reminder to everyone here that Jesperi Kotkaniemi is 4 months younger than Jack Drury.

 

[Chrispy]

I like him....his skating is much better this year, has been superb on face offs (almost 60%), uses his size and FWIW when your wingers are having great years you must be doing something right. At 22, a long runway before he reaches his full potential.

Whether he stays at 2C or ultimately morphs to Staal's replacement I'm glad he is signed to a long contract.

That last part is how I feel right now. He may end up settling in as a 3C, and that will be fine at that contract. For all the talk we have about putting someone like Martinook on the 1st line to help with corner battles and puck retrieval, we don't think about putting a center in that type of role. But Kotkaniemi can do those things well from center.

I agree that being a good 2C long term would mean bringing more offense to the table. I wouldn't mind seeing this year's version of Necas try C at some point, but not while the line is running well.

 

[Stickpucker]

with the way svech and necas are playing, you could put a road cone between them and it wouldn't matter. it might even get a primary. sorry KK.

Does Jordo = road cone in this scenario

Put Aho between them and I don't think they produce as well as they have. Just my opinion. 3 guys can't all carry the puck at one time. Support can be just as valuable as a carry.

When did this thread become about dota 2?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think a lot of people are committed to the idea of the church of KK because they've encountered one too many smug habs fans they've had to vehemently defend against and because it would have been such a great story had the offer sheet been a smash hit. it just hasn't been to this point. trusting what the production says and what the eye test says, he's getting shoehorned into a role he isn't ready to take on out of force of will. that's something he at least has in common with Jordan.

If we remove smug Habs fans from the equation, I think we need to define what this offer sheet being a success actually means. We're talking about giving up the 27th overall pick and the 92nd overall pick for a 21-year-old NHL player (at the time). If you look at some of the analysis that has been done regarding NHL draft pick success, it seems like guys picked in the late 20s have only around a 50% chance to play 100 NHL games.

If you view it without the revenge element, we basically guaranteed ourselves a "3C floor" player from our 27th overall pick and paid a late 3rd to do so. Add in the upside, well... I'd do it again in a heartbeat, and Kotkaniemi never needs to become a consistent 50 point player for me to continue to say that into the future. There were a lot of peripherals involved in it as you mentioned (the revenge element, smug Habs fans not knowing how weaponizing cap space works, etc.) that sort of clouded the acquisition. But we'd be absolutely thrilled if we drafted him at 27 overall as a 21-year-old overager. And at the end of the day that's basically the price we paid for him.

 

[Stickpucker]

A quick reminder to everyone here that Jesperi Kotkaniemi is 4 months younger than Jack Drury.

I wish I was 4 months younger than Jack Drury.

 

[MinJaBen]

I wish I was 4 months younger than Jack Drury.

I'd take 4 months younger than Burns at this point.

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I'd take 4 months younger than Burns at this point.

Hell. 4 months younger than Waddell is a W for me.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I'd take 4 months younger than Burns at this point.

I'm still somewhat on the younger side of these boards I guess, but having just turned 29 I've had a bit of a rough time with all the criticism of "old man" JT Miller in the media lately. Like, oof. If I were to sign a long-term NHL deal I am now at the age where people would only talk about how awful a gamble it is. You hate to see it. Time is undefeated.

 

[Chrispy]

I'm still somewhat on the younger side of these boards I guess, but having just turned 29 I've had a bit of a rough time with all the criticism of "old man" JT Miller in the media lately. Like, oof. If I were to sign a long-term NHL deal I am now at the age where people would only talk about how awful a gamble it is. You hate to see it. Time is undefeated.

Watching the NHL draft and realizing the people our age are the parents.

 

[MinJaBen]

I'm still somewhat on the younger side of these boards I guess, but having just turned 29 I've had a bit of a rough time with all the criticism of "old man" JT Miller in the media lately. Like, oof. If I were to sign a long-term NHL deal I am now at the age where people would only talk about how awful a gamble it is. You hate to see it. Time is undefeated.

I'm the same age as Rod, so any player, even if Charra were still lacing them up, looks good to me.

 

[raynman]

I'd take 4 months younger than Burns at this point.

Same age as Burns, don’t know if I necessarily agree haha

 

[AD Skinner]

I wish I was 4 months younger than Jack Drury.

I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then

Bob Seger, huge caniac

 

[Canes]

Same age as Burns, don’t know if I necessarily agree haha

Old farts on here.

Just kidding, but it's better to have another birthday than to not have one. I have learned that much at Jordan Staal's age. Getting old sucks but not getting the chance to sucks even more.

 

[bleedgreen]

iHDCF, iCF, iSCF, etc were all pretty good. The rates aren’t great due to his increased time but he still ranks higher than a fewer other better scorers in the categories.

His ixGF / 60 is 8th. He isn’t very far behind Svech or Necas. That does show Aho and Jarvis are well in front of Turbo (and most of everyone else) right now

The individual stats due show he is out there driving offense, he just needs to pot some (or create more rebounds).

I can think of one play he made a nice move driving the net. I’m not sure those stats mean what you think they mean. I don’t see him driving offense much at all. I see him passing the puck to very good players who drive the offense, which is absolutely what he should do. If there are stats that say this guy is doing anything more than what any player on the team can do taking the offensive zone then they aren’t very good stats. I’m not saying he’s bad. I’m saying he’s middling. At best.

 

[HisIceness]

Watching the NHL draft and realizing the people our age are the parents.

Someone here said once that they looked at the players girlfriends and now they look at the moms.

Yep, that's becoming me

 

[spockBokk]

Take this FWiW, Pagnotta does seem reasonably plugged into the Canes:

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I can think of one play he made a nice move driving the net. I’m not sure those stats mean what you think they mean. I don’t see him driving offense much at all. I see him passing the puck to very good players who drive the offense, which is absolutely what he should do. If there are stats that say this guy is doing anything more than what any player on the team can do taking the offensive zone then they aren’t very good stats. I’m not saying he’s bad. I’m saying he’s middling. At best.

If individual weren’t self explanatory, Naturalstattrick has a nice glossary to explain what they mean.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Bear+ for Kuzmenko

 

[MadeUpName]

Take this FWiW, Pagnotta does seem reasonably plugged into the Canes:

It seems reasonable enough that a trade could be made. Especially to a desperate team like Vancouver.

The alternative is that Carolina puts him on Waivers and an earlier priority team scoops him up. Could be worth a 3rd or 4th.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

and dang I guess I'm the baby around here... My age is closer to Aho than the rest of the names mentioned

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If you view it without the revenge element, we basically guaranteed ourselves a "3C floor" player from our 27th overall pick and paid a late 3rd to do so. Add in the upside, well... I'd do it again in a heartbeat, and Kotkaniemi never needs to become a consistent 50 point player for me to continue to say that into the future. There were a lot of peripherals involved in it as you mentioned (the revenge element, smug Habs fans not knowing how weaponizing cap space works, etc.) that sort of clouded the acquisition. But we'd be absolutely thrilled if we drafted him at 27 overall as a 21-year-old overager. And at the end of the day that's basically the price we paid for him.

This all makes perfect sense. There's another aspect to this though. For a team like Carolina that is a cup contender, the value of a 1st and 3rd round pick isn't necessarily the guy you might draft with them, it's the acquisition opportunity they allow. The question for me is "was that the best use of those assets"? I didn't feel it helped fill a big need, at least short term, but we'll never know for sure, so it's speculation. It also prevented the team from making any meaningful deals at the deadline, both because of the cap hit and not having a 1st round pick.

Tampa Bay used their picks for deadline deals/trades for guys with a year or two on the deals (Coleman, Goodrow, etc..) to give them an element they didn't have and push them over the top. I felt Carolina was in a similar situation last year (and this year) and maybe could have made better use of those assets.

That's why I was lukewarm on the offer sheet from the start. I had no issue losing the picks for Kotkaniemi (in terms of losing out on draftees), because as you said, that, in a vacuum, is worth doing.

Kotkaniemi's salary is commensurate with a 3C, particularly as the cap rises so if he plateaus as that, it's still a good deal. If he becomes more than that, it's a bargain. I think the team needs him to be more than that this year for them to be a contender. It's early and the line is playing awesome, so it's not a big concern right now.

 

[haulinbass]

Just because the NHL hasn't found a way to count stats for somethings doesn't mean KK is driving the plays. He does a lot of heavy lifting on keeping the puck in play and winning board battles. Assists be damned, personally I care less how many points he gets. If he continues to win faceoffs, board battles, and drive possession he will continue to be a big part of that line

I will keep an eye on this. Especially when you have Svechnikov and hopefully Necas keeps trending in the right direction. Canes won't need him to be that high end puck carrying playmaking center. Salary cap wise you can't have everything anyways, so this could be a sustainable combination for this team.

 

[Lempo]

Watching the NHL draft and realizing the people our age are the parents.

Four years back I was at a junior high PTA meeting about the lycaeum (~ high school) options in the town for our older kid. One had a specific sports class, their selling point was that Jesperi Kotkaniemi goes there.

The principal owned up to us that he's probably not returning for the fall (he had just signed up with MTL).