All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[HisIceness]

It gives the opportunity for more flex but some team out there is going to go stupid and pass out money like it grows on trees which means that guys like Necas, Pesce, etc, might ask more than the Borg is willing to shell out. Maybe. I don't know.

 

[Borsig]

I will go against the grain and say Necas doesn't get the huge increase, at least not here, which is lMO why he's one that will be gone.

Slavin is, IMO not replaceable. I'd wonder if Aho stays. I bet he chases money. My bigger concern is Jarvis ultra breakout and us losing him. I have high hopes for Jarvis. I'd love to see us finally draft and keep a genuine, home grown, top 5 in the league franchise player who can break games.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I will go against the grain and say Necas doesn't get the huge increase, at least not here, which is lMO why he's one that will be gone.

Slavin is, IMO not replaceable. I'd wonder if Aho stays. I bet he chases money. My bigger concern is Jarvis ultra breakout and us losing him. I have high hopes for Jarvis. I'd love to see us finally draft and keep a genuine, home grown, top 5 in the league franchise player who can break games.

Jarvis isn't going to leave. He's almost certainly a candidate for an 8 year extension and will be priority #1 for the Canes that offseason, even before their UFA crop. Out of the UFA group, if the Canes have any desire to be a long-term contender, then keeping Aho and Slavin are the two true must signs. I don't see either of those two leaving for any reason outside of the true blue unicorn event of another 1C or 1D candidate showing up on the team within the next two seasons, which is highly unlikely. Despite the screaming on some corners of the internet about UFA Armageddon, Canes have a strong enough prospect core on the wings and on defense to replace Teravainen, Skjei, and/or Pesce if need be, and I'm not overly concerned about that side of the team.

 

[A Star is Burns]

It'll be good to have the extra wiggle room for the must signs, like Aho and Slavin. But I think we'll still see the same mentality from this front office as long as it remains reasonably intact. We'll draw our line in the sand on most other negotiations and some will stick around and some will move on. I think the core of this team is a pretty short list, and our moves will generally reflect that.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Isn't it possible that agents will realize that the cap is going up and demand higher contract numbers (ie to emulate current % of cap space for current contracts)? I think so.....

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

It'll be good to have the extra wiggle room for the must signs, like Aho and Slavin. But I think we'll still see the same mentality from this front office as long as it remains reasonably intact. We'll draw our line in the sand on most other negotiations and some will stick around and some will move on. I think the core of this team is a pretty short list, and our moves will generally reflect that.

I think the current core group is essentially Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Kotkaniemi, and Slavin. Necas, if he can rebound in the next two seasons, also has a shot at making this list, as well. The jury is out on Kochetkov or Drury, but if either pans out to what they can be, they'll be core members, too.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

How much do we think Slavin is gonna get?

7.4 aav

From Colorado

 

[raynman]

I think the current core group is essentially Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Kotkaniemi, and Slavin. Necas, if he can rebound in the next two seasons, also has a shot at making this list, as well. The jury is out on Kochetkov or Drury, but if either pans out to what they can be, they'll be core members, too.

We are all core members in my eyes

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think the current core group is essentially Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Kotkaniemi, and Slavin. Necas, if he can rebound in the next two seasons, also has a shot at making this list, as well. The jury is out on Kochetkov or Drury, but if either pans out to what they can be, they'll be core members, too.

I personally think it's Aho, Slavin, and Svech at this exact moment in time. Jarvis can put himself in there this year (I'd be mildly surprised if he doesn't) but isn't yet in my eyes. Koko may be signed long-term, but I also don't consider him a core player just yet. Necas might be able to get back in that conversation. We'll see. Not close at the moment. That's how I view it.

 

[MadeUpName]

8 years x $7.4 million for Slavin sounds right for an extension. Ages 31-39* (edit) for a defensive D that will age well. He would be worth every penny of that deal and it leaves some wiggle room to keep adding talent.

I think Jarvis is going to come in at $8+ million but there's a long way to go to reach that number.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

8 years x $7.4 million for Slavin sounds right for an extension. Ages 30-38 for a defensive D that will age well. He would be worth every penny of that deal and it leaves some wiggle room to keep adding talent.

I think Jarvis is going to come in at $8+ million but there's a long way to go to reach that number.

He'll be 31 when this deal is up, I don't see him getting 8 years from us. 6 x 8m is what I'm thinking. He's easily worth 10+ in my mind, but the lack of points means we should be able to get him considerably cheaper than he's really worth.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Isn't it possible that agents will realize that the cap is going up and demand higher contract numbers (ie to emulate current % of cap space for current contracts)? I think so.....

There's no doubt about it. When the cap goes up, new contracts go up. Fans will panic until expectations are recalibrated. A team can't win a cup with a $12 mil player will be the new a team can't win a cup with a $10 mil player.

Most teams will be in the same boat as this one. Only those that are young and have been aggressive in this era will benefit. Ottawa isn't without risk, but the upside in the gambles across the board (Chabot, Tkachuk, Norris and Stutzle) is huge.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

There's no doubt about it. When the cap goes up, new contracts go up. Fans will panic until expectations are recalibrated. A team can't win a cup with a $12 mil player will be the new a team can't win a cup with a $10 mil player.

Most teams will be in the same boat as this one. Only those that are young and have been aggressive in this era will benefit. Ottawa isn't without risk, but the upside in the gambles across the board (Chabot, Tkachuk, Norris and Stutzle) is huge.

Actually, Carolina is in better cap shape than the majority of contenders because they've so heavily focused on giving young talent term and money during the flat cap, similar to what Ottawa's doing. Kotkaniemi's extension is a contract with both extremely high risk and extremely high reward, because he's a prime example of a player who's not there yet, but if he does actually pan out as a 2C, a $4.82M cap hit (essentially Trocheck's old number) will quickly become a bargain with an escalating cap.

 

[AD Skinner]

I personally think it's Aho, Slavin, and Svech at this exact moment in time. Jarvis can put himself in there this year (I'd be mildly surprised if he doesn't) but isn't yet in my eyes. Koko may be signed long-term, but I also don't consider him a core player just yet. Necas might be able to get back in that conversation. We'll see. Not close at the moment. That's how I view it.

Completely agree. The ASS is the heart

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Actually, Carolina is in better cap shape than the majority of contenders because they've so heavily focused on giving young talent term and money during the flat cap, similar to what Ottawa's doing.

That's only translated to 2 contracts up to this point: Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. Necas was bridged. Jarvis is an unknown. It's a veteran group otherwise. Slavin, Pesce, Aho and Teravainen are prime aged. They'll face the cap spike contract increases.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

That's only translated to 2 contracts up to this point: Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. Necas was bridged. Jarvis is an unknown. It's a veteran group otherwise. Slavin, Pesce, Aho and Teravainen are prime aged. They'll face the cap spike contract increases.

I have long suspected, though, that Teravainen, Pesce, and Skjei are prime candidates to either trade or to walk in free agency, because it is on the wings and on defense where the Hurricanes actually have a strong prospect pool in. I don't know which guys actually pan out as top-liners, but even when just restricted to the first two rounds, the large bubble of players like Trikozov/Gunler/Koivunen/Suzuki (forwards) or Nikishin/Morrow/Heimosalmi (defense) gives options in those specific positions to replace a player like Teravainen or Skjei. Pesce's replacement would be more questionable outside of the best-case scenario for someone like Heimosalmi, but if they have enough trust in their youngsters, maybe they acquire a 1-2 year stopgap via trade or UFA. If you restrict the big UFA re-signings to simply Aho and Slavin, all of a sudden there's way more salary cap to invest in long-term RFA investments for players like Jarvis and premium depth additions.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Give Slavin whatever he asks for. It’s not like you can say ”no”

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I think the cap increase will help us keep some of the stars, but I agree with most of you that we won't lock in everybody. We just aren't that team. We'll probably re-sign Aho, Slavin, and Jarvis. We might get one or two of Necas or Teuvo or Skjei or Pesce. But there's no way we go long term with all 7 of those guys.

The team has shown every offseason that there is massive value to be had in having space when other teams don't have space. The space we had got us Burns and a 2nd value of asset for moving on from TDA. It got us Stastny and Kase and Maxpac and Coughlan. It got us Kotkaniemi and Jarvis in the past.

The borg won't change the blueprint by locking in all of those guys; we'll probably just let them walk, or in the case of Necas, make a trade. If we were to lock all of them in, you're looking at

Aho: $10M
Slavin: $7.5-8M
Jarvis: $8M
Necas: $6M
Teuvo: $7.5M
Skjei: $6M
Pesce: $6.5M

I think the team could actually make all of that work if they wanted to, but I'm pretty positive they DON'T want to make that work as it would require locking in these guys for too much term as well. I'll shit my pants when we get to June that year, but I also will trust the borg will have either traded for internal replacements leading to that point, or that we'll have enough money to swing deals and land smaller UFA fish that will leave us flexible but still pretty good.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I really think one of Pesce or Skjei will be "Faulked" next offseason, and for whatever reason I think it will be Pesce.

 

[AD Skinner]

I really think one of Pesce or Skjei will be "Faulked" next offseason, and for whatever reason I think it will be Pesce.

I imagine you'd get a better return for pesce. It they're going to flip one thats probably the reasoning they'll use. But what do I know

 

[SlavinAway]

I really think one of Pesce or Skjei will be "Faulked" next offseason, and for whatever reason I think it will be Pesce.

Just curious why you feel that way?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Just curious why you feel that way?

For whatever reason.

 

[mikeyfan]

Age wise it breaks down as follows:

Aho will be 26 at the end of the 23-24 season definitely an 8 year contract taking him to 34.
Tevo will be 29 at the end of the 23-24 Season can see a 5 year contract
Pesce will be 29 at the end of the 23-24 Season 5-8 years for him
Slavin - 31 at the end of the 24-25 Season 5 to 8 years for him.
Jarvis 21 when he starts his RFA I see a 1 year deal in 24-25 around 3 to 4 million and then in 25-26 signing him to an 8 year contract.

 

[MadeUpName]

That's only translated to 2 contracts up to this point: Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. Necas was bridged. Jarvis is an unknown. It's a veteran group otherwise. Slavin, Pesce, Aho and Teravainen are prime aged. They'll face the cap spike contract increases.

I think there is a non-trivial psychological benefit to Svechnikov being locked in at $7.8 million. Especially if (when) he takes the next step into a top-10 NHL winger.

When Toronto signs John Tavares for $11 million then Marner immediately points to that and wants $11 million. With Svechnikov locked into $8 million that will now be the benchmark for the team. If you want more in the next 3-4 years (as a RFA), you have to be better than Svech.

 

[NotOpie]

He's easily worth 10+ in my mind, but the lack of points means we should be able to get him considerably cheaper than he's really worth.

I understand your point, but Slavin is coming off of a 42 point season. There's no reason to believe he won't keep that pace up (or even improve on it a little). Also, he's a beast in the playoffs putting up 27 points in 44 games, which is impressive for a defenseman not named Morrow....er, um, I mean Makar.