All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread Part 5: The Jerk Store Called - It's Time to Restock

[GoldiFox]

Tampa fans appear open to trade Yanni Gourde away before his NTC kicks in on July 1. He's the right mix of compete and skill that the Canes appear to be looking for. Has a chip on his shoulder being undrafted and can play Center. His $5.2 million x 6 year deal is right in line with Nino and TT.

With the Karlsson buzz Tampa is in a weird spot. They'd have to make move sooner rather than later to open up that kind of space.

 

[MinJaBen]

Tampa fans appear open to trade Yanni Gourde away before his NTC kicks in on July 1. He's the right mix of compete and skill that the Canes appear to be looking for. Has a chip on his shoulder being undrafted and can play Center. His $5.2 million x 6 year deal is right in line with Nino and TT.

With the Karlsson buzz Tampa is in a weird spot. They'd have to make move sooner rather than later to open up that kind of space.

Short of offersheeting Point, he'd be the guy I'd target from their likely cap casualties.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Brett Connolly I'm with you on, but Nyquist? He's had a better season albeit one that was injury shortened. He was pacing for 65-70 points in I want to say 2014 over the course of a full season, and even if 60 is high for him point wise he's floated around in the 45+ point range his entire career. More valuable for us he's been a very consistent PP producer throughout the course of his career. If he goes north of 6.5m per I'd probably back away but anything in that 5-6.5 range for 4-5 years he'd be worth it.

Ideally I'd like to us bring in either him or Eberle to add some more skill to our top 6 and roll something like this (assuming we can't snag Duchene):

Nino - Aho - Nyquist/Eberle
Svech - Staal - Turbo
Necas - Wallmark - Williams
Foegele - Martinook - McGinn

I'd still like to upgrade the 2 or 3 hole down the middle and Necas making that move would help there a LOT but I would think that lineup is poised to not just make the playoffs again but make some noise again with the continued development of the kids, adding a top 6 wing and PP help. That's a team that's easily capable of a run to the conference finals again, though I'd also say a good #2/very high end #3 away from being a team I'd be looking at and saying "yeah they could win it all next year".

Understandable position on Nyquist.

13-14- on a 69 point pace (48 in 57 games) 40 goal pace
14-15- 54, 27 goals
15-16- 43, 17 goals
16-17-48, 12 goals
17-18-40, 21 goals
18-19- 60, 22 goals

between this past season and the 4 seasons prior we saw his points jump 30% . If we only do the 3 prior seasons it is a 40% jump. So, his numbers are concerning when we talk about giving him a 5 year deal at 5-6.5 million. The predictor says 6 years 5.7 million. If we was between 25-30 goals then sure the 5.7 would be worth it but he has only done that twice both, 5 and 6 years ago. He would need to be at 25-30 to make the absorption of his mid 30 years not as bad. Nyquist is also another lefty.

 

[bleedgreen]

Short of offersheeting Point, he'd be the guy I'd target from their likely cap casualties.

I can’t see us offer sheeting someone over just trading for someone already signed. Either would be delightful but I could see them prioritizing Point and moving Gourde.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I would gladly take Gourde. There are a lot of interesting situations out there, and there will be some good talent that shakes loose. We should be able to step up and get someone or someones (pending Williams situation, dmen, etc.)

 

[Roboturner913]

Do we really *need* a 2C though? We have Staal, who has a consistent history of 45+ points and Selke-caliber defensive play, and we all saw what he did this playoff run. And whatever lack of offense he has can be offset by having Turbo on his wing. I'm very happy with going Aho-Staal-Necas-Wallmark at center and letting Necas earn his way into the 2C spot over the course of a season.

I do not think we get nearly as far as we did this playoffs with Staal getting 3rd line minutes.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Do we really *need* a 2C though? We have Staal, who has a consistent history of 45+ points and Selke-caliber defensive play, and we all saw what he did this playoff run. And whatever lack of offense he has can be offset by having Turbo on his wing. I'm very happy with going Aho-Staal-Necas-Wallmark at center and letting Necas earn his way into the 2C spot over the course of a season.

I do not think we get nearly as far as we did this playoffs with Staal getting 3rd line minutes.

Necas is at least 2 years away from being a center.

 

[bleedgreen]

Hard to put a timetable on it, he got better as the season went along but seemed to be at his best at wing. That could change with confidence, experience and some filling out. It’ll be interesting to see if they force it early on.

I do think we need a center, I don’t think Staal does enough consistently offensively to count on him and he’d be an amazing third center for us. They mentioned they were looking for one during the season so it has to be a little on the radar.

We were short legit forwards going into the season and we’ll be down even more heading into this off season. That and the goaltending are the obvious big off season challenges. Let’s do dis.

 

[RibFrabcus]

Hard to put a timetable on it, he got better as the season went along but seemed to be at his best at wing. That could change with confidence, experience and some filling out. It’ll be interesting to see if they force it early on.

I do think we need a center, I don’t think Staal does enough consistently offensively to count on him and he’d be an amazing third center for us. They mentioned they were long for one during the season so it has to be a little on the radar.

We were short legit forwards going into the season and we’ll be down even more heading into this off season. That and the goaltending are the obvious big off season challenges. Let’s do dis.

Yeah, and getting someone cost controlled, in their prime like Gourde would be huge. Staal isn't likely to maintain his level of play through the length of his contract but having more options at center allows his role with the team to naturally decline as he ages.

I love what Staal brings, and you could consider Staal and Gourde as 2a and 2b centers with different, complimentary roles.

 

[cptjeff]

Very true, but Skinner's deal seems a little too ridiculous to not set a new market. Every agent of a player of similar stature is going to point to that contract as a base. Look at Panarin for example, is he a $10M+ player? Absolutely not, but when Skinner gets $9M, how can you not claim he shouldn't make more than him? Ditto for Duchene, and he's got the positional bonus of being a center.

That's not even taking into account expiring RFA's like Marner, Rantanen, Aho, Point, Tkachuk etc. who's agents are all going to be looking at that Skinner contract with great interest.

Panarin tops off at about 30 goals. Skinner hits 40. 40 goal scorers are MUCH rarer than 30 goal scorers. Like it or not, finishing commands a premium and always has. There are two assists on nearly every goal, and the value for each goal is correspondingly higher in a contract negotiation. The team with the most goals wins hockey games, not the team with the most points.

I get that a bunch of people here absolutely hate Skinner and have no idea what kind of value he actually brings because they're so invested in the narrative they've created about how terrible he is, how he's a cancer, etc. But talent is on a bell curve, and the further out on the tail of a skill that you get, the faster the contract numbers increase. 40 goals is much, much rarer skill than 30. Panarin has a more rounded game, sure, but Skinner is much more talented than he is at scoring goals. Those things will likely cancel out and they'll get similar amounts.

Duchene is a 20-30 goal guy. Center, sure, and the assist numbers give him a higher point total, but in an average year he scores 23.2 goals. He's vastly inferior to Skinner in a major aspect of the game. Same with everyone on that list except for Point- who will easily land a $10+ contract when he hits UFA if he wants to.

Elite goal scorers cost money. Skinner is one of them. Don't think it's worth paying for one? Think it's better to invest in spreading the scoring through the lineup? Fine, but don't pretend that a 40 goal scorer getting a substantial contract is ridiculous. The best player in the league earns $12.5 million a year. Skinner earns 3.5 million dollars less than that. Wanna go nuts about a contract setting a ridiculous new ceiling? Talk to McDavid.

 

[Roboturner913]

Necas is at least 2 years away from being a center.

IDK about that, but I did say I would start him at 3C and let him work his way up.

I'm fine with going after a 2C should the opportunity present itself, but we shouldn't feel forced into that move. Simply having Turbo on that line lessens the *need* for a major point producer at 2C in my opinion, even more so if you look at a top 6 of:

Nino-Aho-Williams
Turbo-Staal-Svechnikov

Instead of loading up the top line

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The typical scoring line has one guy to do the dirty work (boardplay, net drive, sometimes defensive responsibility, etc.). To what extent does it actually matter if that 3rd wheel is in the middle rather than on the wing? If Teravainen was the center and Staal the winger, and the production was the same, I feel like no one would have a problem with that line construction.

I like Staal as the 2nd line pivot, even if a better offensive center is acquired. That acquisition should be the offensive driver on the 3rd line with Necas as the complimentary skill piece and Foegele/Martinook/McGinn as that 3rd wheel.

 

[bleedgreen]

If that third center scores what Staal should be doing (45-55) then I don’t care what you call either one of them if Staal is doing his part too.

 

[Roboturner913]

TBH I feel like most of the league, a while ago, drifted toward the concept of two offensive linemates with a third wheel on each line. It usually doesn't work if the center is the punter on the line though, with some rare exceptions like when Kessel was driving the Penguins 3rd line.

But I really want to see what Jordan Staal is next season. I have the feeling this season might have him inspired to take his game up a notch. If he starts next season playing at the same level he did after he came back this season, we have a legit 2C already.

 

[Brock Anton]

Looks like the Sharks are preparing to offer Karlsson 8x11. If he were to take it, that would definitely make things tight for them to re-sign all of Pavelski, Meier and Labanc.

In that case, I'd certainly look to see what it'd take to acquire a guy like Labanc, he's a right hand shot and just put up a 50+ point season after a 40 point season the year prior. Not overly physical, but he's got some edge to his game. I feel like he'd be a pretty good fit here, nor do I think we'd have to empty the cupboards to acquire him.

 

[Ahoy there]

Panarin tops off at about 30 goals. Skinner hits 40. 40 goal scorers are MUCH rarer than 30 goal scorers. Like it or not, finishing commands a premium and always has. There are two assists on nearly every goal, and the value for each goal is correspondingly higher in a contract negotiation. The team with the most goals wins hockey games, not the team with the most points.

I get that a bunch of people here absolutely hate Skinner and have no idea what kind of value he actually brings because they're so invested in the narrative they've created about how terrible he is, how he's a cancer, etc. But talent is on a bell curve, and the further out on the tail of a skill that you get, the faster the contract numbers increase. 40 goals is much, much rarer skill than 30. Panarin has a more rounded game, sure, but Skinner is much more talented than he is at scoring goals. Those things will likely cancel out and they'll get similar amounts.

Duchene is a 20-30 goal guy. Center, sure, and the assist numbers give him a higher point total, but in an average year he scores 23.2 goals. He's vastly inferior to Skinner in a major aspect of the game. Same with everyone on that list except for Point- who will easily land a $10+ contract when he hits UFA if he wants to.

Elite goal scorers cost money. Skinner is one of them. Don't think it's worth paying for one? Think it's better to invest in spreading the scoring through the lineup? Fine, but don't pretend that a 40 goal scorer getting a substantial contract is ridiculous. The best player in the league earns $12.5 million a year. Skinner earns 3.5 million dollars less than that. Wanna go nuts about a contract setting a ridiculous new ceiling? Talk to McDavid.

Thankfully that is not how GMs determine value! I do not hate Skinner, though I am thankful we did not pay that premium for him. You are isolating one aspect of the game in a sport more fluid than any other in existence. Skinner is atrocious on defense; always has been; Sabre's fans agree! He can definitely pot goals, but how many does he give up simply because he has been told his entire playing career that he is a goal scorer? What did Buff get for their $225k/goal guy? Keep him!

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If that third center scores what Staal should be doing (45-55) then I don’t care what you call either one of them if Staal is doing his part too.

Isn’t that what Staal has been doing? Maybe on the lower end of that range, but:

15/16: 48
16/17: 45
17/18: 46
18/19: 28 in 50 games = 82 game pace of 46

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

IDK about that, but I did say I would start him at 3C and let him work his way up.

I'm fine with going after a 2C should the opportunity present itself, but we shouldn't feel forced into that move. Simply having Turbo on that line lessens the *need* for a major point producer at 2C in my opinion, even more so if you look at a top 6 of:

Nino-Aho-Williams
Turbo-Staal-Svechnikov

Instead of loading up the top line

Necas played center only a handful of times in the AHL after January. Also, the narratives from Brindy about breaking into the league as a winger and Coach V talking to Necas about he could break into the league faster as a winger.

Just tells me Necas is a couple of years away from being a center.

 

[bleedgreen]

TBH I feel like most of the league, a while ago, drifted toward the concept of two offensive linemates with a third wheel on each line. It usually doesn't work if the center is the punter on the line though, with some rare exceptions like when Kessel was driving the Penguins 3rd line.

But I really want to see what Jordan Staal is next season. I have the feeling this season might have him inspired to take his game up a notch. If he starts next season playing at the same level he did after he came back this season, we have a legit 2C already.

I respect the optimism but dude is 30. I think we’ve seen the best he has to give over a season. He’s always had the occasional beast mode like we saw in the playoffs but those are far more sporadic and brief than his brothers.

Unless 45-50 points with great defensive play is good enough for a second center, which in the past some have been happy with. I’m not really that guy, and I’d love to see someone a bit more spry and dangerous crossing the blue line just to contrast him even if it’s someone who’s barely beyond a 50 pt guy himself. I think Staal is best as a third center who can come alive in the playoffs or down the stretch when the game changes more to his style. All he did in the playoffs was be the guy he’s generally always supposed to be. I didn’t see that as a second center, every team has guys who can step up in the playoffs from lower roles. Reminded me of Bonino.

 

[bleedgreen]

Necas played center only a handful of times in the AHL after January. Also, the narratives from Brindy about breaking into the league as a winger and Coach V talking to Necas about he could break into the league faster as a winger.

Just tells me Necas is a couple of years away from being a center.

He could’ve played wing this year probably, it’ll definitely be easier for him to start out there. He may never be a center, we shouldn’t make assumptions at all. Like Aho just stepped in you never know how he’ll react when someone gets hurt and they put him there even halfway through next season.

He’s probably going to be a pretty dangerous winger. That speed on the forecheck, less defensive responsibility and some pp time. I could see 30-40 pts.

 

[bleedgreen]

Isn’t that what Staal has been doing? Maybe on the lower end of that range, but:

15/16: 48
16/17: 45
17/18: 46
18/19: 28 in 50 games = 82 game pace of 46

That’s what I’m saying. Staal didn’t do it this year but he’s shown to be a 45-50 pt guy, so if he brings that and we get another guy who brings 50 we should be in pretty good shape. In that scenario I don’t care who gets called the second or third center.

 

[Chrispy]

Isn’t that what Staal has been doing? Maybe on the lower end of that range, but:

15/16: 48
16/17: 45
17/18: 46
18/19: 28 in 50 games = 82 game pace of 46

I think there's hope for more post-concussion Jordan next season:
18-19:
Pre-All Star: 11 in 29 games (edit: typo, 29 not 19.)
Post-All Star: 17 in 21 games
Playoffs: 10 points in 15 games

That's 27 points in 36 games after the concussion, a 61 point pace. Settle in a between that pace and his career pace and a mid-50 C would be great.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I think there's hope for more post-concussion Jordan next season:
18-19:
Pre-All Star: 11 in 19 games
Post-All Star: 17 in 21 games

Staal will always be a big part of how this team functions.

We could put Staal between Svech and Necas and have Staal be the defense for the 3 of them. Like 2 seasons ago. Get a solid center and make 4 lines that are hard for home teams to target for substitutions.
Or
We could make Staal’s line a veteran laden shut down line and choke teams out at home. Road games might be a little easier to match up against with young guys on them.

The first option would see Staal’s scoring closer to 50. The second option would see Staal’s scoring being closer to 45 but our 2 way game would be really strong.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That’s what I’m saying. Staal didn’t do it this year but he’s shown to be a 45-50 pt guy, so if he brings that and we get another guy who brings 50 we should be in pretty good shape. In that scenario I don’t care who gets called the second or third center.

Ok, I see what you are saying. He simply didn't do it this year simply because he got injured.

Anyone we have or acquire won't score what we expect if they get injured, but yeah, getting two guys who can do that would be great as it allows for more depth when injuries occur.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think there's hope for more post-concussion Jordan next season:
18-19:
Pre-All Star: 11 in 29 games (edit: typo, 29 not 19.)
Post-All Star: 17 in 21 games
Playoffs: 10 points in 15 games

That's 27 points in 36 games after the concussion, a 61 point pace. Settle in a between that pace and his career pace and a mid-50 C would be great.

That's probably a reflection of the entire team though, no?

Pre-All Star: 139G in 50 games = 2.78 G/GP
Post-All Star: 104G in 32 games = 3.25 G/GP