All purpose trade/roster building thread part 12

[Chrispy]

Looking for a draft pick trade comparable, Brian Elliot to the Flames in 2016 is the best I can find. He was coming off of a .930 year as the 1A of a platoon and started all of the Blues' games in their run to the Conference Finals. Elliot, like Andersen is about to be, was 31 at the time of trade. He also had just 1 year of term left. Andersen has more name value and a better track record on one hand. On the other, there is a lot of depth in the market that should put downward pressure on his value.

The return was a high 2nd (35OA) and a 3rd conditional on Elliot re-signing (Link).

But is Andersen the right target for Carolina? Here's a copy of what I just put on the main board:

About the performance the past 2 years:

	18-19 GAA	18-19 SV%	19-20 GAA	19-20 SV%
Andersen	2.77	.917	2.85	.909
Mrazek	2.39	.914	2.65	.905
Reimer (CAR)			2.66	.914

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Is it behind different teams? Absolutely. But Carolina also gives up the same number of high danger chances / 60 as Toronto according to Natural Stat Trick and the 2 teams had very similar HDGA and HDSV% last season.

It's hard to see where the huge advantage is coming from with 1 year of Andersen that makes the move worth #13.

 

[Chrispy]

I keep seeing posts, both here and in other team forums and the main board, where everyone is looking to move a guy to free up space for other moves. Gardiner, Andersen, Hank, lots of guys in Arizona, etc. Where does everyone think all these guys are going to go? In a year where there may be no gate revenues? I think most teams will have essentially the same roster they had this year, if they play at all.

Another good question.

I can see Ottawa taking some cheap salary/high cap contracts (Reimer or Andersen for cheap, for instance.) Beyond Ottawa, and only for cheap salaries? I don't see where you get more than contract for contract swaps.

 

[DougieSmash]

We should stop messing with the chemistry and stop trading great players. We could go for two years from Slavin, Pesce, CDH, Faulk and Dougie... to Slavin and Fleury. I don't like that. Keep both of Hamilton and Pesce. At some point you must pay for the good player.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

I keep seeing posts, both here and in other team forums and the main board, where everyone is looking to move a guy to free up space for other moves. Gardiner, Andersen, Hank, lots of guys in Arizona, etc. Where does everyone think all these guys are going to go? In a year where there may be no gate revenues? I think most teams will have essentially the same roster they had this year, if they play at all.

ottawa takes them all obviously

 

[MinJaBen]

Does anyone know where I can find a link to Waddell's quote of spending near the cap again next year? I've googled but I am not finding the quote.

 

[Justshootmore]

But is Andersen the right target for Carolina? Here's a copy of what I just put on the main board:

About the performance the past 2 years:

	18-19 GAA	18-19 SV%	19-20 GAA	19-20 SV%
Andersen	2.77	.917	2.85	.909
Mrazek	2.39	.914	2.65	.905
Reimer (CAR)			2.66	.914

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Is it behind different teams? Absolutely. But Carolina also gives up the same number of high danger chances / 60 as Toronto according to Natural Stat Trick and the 2 teams had very similar HDGA and HDSV% last season.

It's hard to see where the huge advantage is coming from with 1 year of Andersen that makes the move worth #13.

Which brings up a point that I, and many others, made a few weeks ago. The issue with Mrazek is not that he hasn't enough great saves, but that he gives up a few soft goals every few games. If you strictly look at high danger shots save%, he is ahead of a lot of goalies who would generally be seen as an upgrade (MAF, Andersen, Hellebuyck).

So I am not sure if the ultimate, long-term solution is out there in a trade (alone). If we trade for a guy like Andersen, we might get more consistent goaltending, but not necessarily better goaltending. In a way, Mrazek fits our system of giving up few, but high danger chances better than Andersen.

I think that if there is a change in net, there should probably also be a (slight) change in coaching, otherwise the trade might not be effective.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Does anyone know where I can find a link to Waddell's quote of spending near the cap again next year? I've googled but I am not finding the quote.

This is all I remember ever seeing.

 

[MinJaBen]

Now this could be interesting. I wonder if there is anyone we'd be willing to trade that they would except?

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

I keep seeing posts, both here and in other team forums and the main board, where everyone is looking to move a guy to free up space for other moves. Gardiner, Andersen, Hank, lots of guys in Arizona, etc. Where does everyone think all these guys are going to go? In a year where there may be no gate revenues? I think most teams will have essentially the same roster they had this year, if they play at all.

I have been thinking this for a while. All the trade talk is all well and good. But who in the world knows what the income stream is going to be if any. I could see salary dumping more than anything. But I'm just a fan so what the hell do I really know.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Now this could be interesting. I wonder if there is anyone we'd be willing to trade that they would except?

Do we really have excess offensive talent that would make sense to trade? One assumes they want proven offense for completely unproven (in a long term sense) goalies. I'm still wary of their goalies and the value it might take to get them.

 

[Lempo]

What return would Teravainen fetch?

 

[SlavinAway]

What return would Teravainen fetch?

No.

 

[WreckingCrew]

What return would Teravainen fetch?

HOW DARE YOU THREATEN TO RELINQUISH ONE OF OUR CHERUBS

@MrazeksVengeance BURN THE WITCH

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

What return would Teravainen fetch?

Andersen, if you ask Toronto fans

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I just want to commend the home alone reference

This must be emphasized.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

ottawa takes them all obviously

Enough of this!!!

but seriously, Ottawa has no need for any surplus goaltenders at the moment. Too many guys needing minutes.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Speaking of how many moves might be able to be made, that could be some of the upside for teams that are out early. Normally you don't see a lot of moves until the off season really begins and the playoffs are over. We already saw the Toronton/Pitt move and I bet we see some more. Conventional wisdom says that you want to wait to have more options available to trade with. Jumping on any opportunities that become available now might keep you from losing the game of musical chairs later since there probably will be a finite number of moves that can or will be made league wide in the cap world. It could be an interesting time to get aggressive. Especially since we only really look for late bargains in the UFA market anyways.

 

[DougieSmash]

Mrazek is not the solution but no matter how weak were some of the goals he let against Bruins, our offense was garbage. We need to upgrade our top 9.

 

[Stickpucker]

What return would Teravainen fetch?

tears

 

[Daeavorn]

Mrazek's time with us can be summed up with his playoff performance. Guy can be incredible 90% of the time. But he will let in a complete softy. Unfortunately for him, that goal by Bergeron is burned into my memory.

I would be dissapointed if we went with him again next season.

 

[Chrispy]

Now this could be interesting. I wonder if there is anyone we'd be willing to trade that they would except?

For offensive talent? I doubt it.

The core (which includes Necas) isn't moving. Staal isn't moving. What does that leave?
CLB tried Dzingel; I don't see them trying to acquire him again.
Nino isn't going to get it done.
Foegele or McGinn isn't going to be the offense they are looking for.

That leaves Trocheck. Would that be a move Carolina makes so soon after picking up Trocheck?

 

[ThaiTanicDK]

When you look at Andersen stats we should also look at shots against. He has been goalie for one of the worst defensive teams in the league for the last several years.

Season + Leafs Shots Against per Game + Andersens Games Played + SVS%

16-17 3rd Andersen: 66GP .918
17-18 4th Andersen: 66GP .914
18-19 8th Andersen: 60GP .917
19-20 12th Andersen: 52GP .909

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

When you look at Andersen stats we should also look at shots against. He has been goalie for one of the worst defensive teams in the league for the last several years.

Season + Leafs Shots Against per Game + Andersens Games Played + SVS%

16-17 3rd Andersen: 66GP .918
17-18 4th Andersen: 66GP .914
18-19 8th Andersen: 60GP .917
19-20 12th Andersen: 52GP .909

How does it look when looking at HD shots against?

Reason I ask, is Carolina is a team that has low shot totals against, but then give up a lot of HD changes. It's evident when watching them and the data backs it up. For instance, this year they were 2nd best in the NHL for 5v5 CA/60 (Toronto was 13th best), and 6th best for SA/60 (Toronto was 18th).

Looking at HDCA/60, Carolina drops to 23rd and 2 spots worse than Toronto at 21st. And Toronto and Carolina's SV% on HD chances were similar (Carolina 24th in the NHL at .810. Toronto 23rd at .811

So this data leads you to believe that Andersen won't necessarily fair much better, (unless the back-up is what is dragging the numbers down)

EDIT: Andersen's HDSV% was .805.

 

[ThaiTanicDK]

(unless the back-up is what is dragging the numbers down)

EDIT: Andersen's HDSV% was .805.

I have no idea what their HDSV% is, but their backups have been awful the the last two seasons. I didnt even know that was a stat or where to find it.

Garret Sparks 18-19 20GP .902
Michael Hutchinson 19-20 20GP .886

Curtis McElhinney 16-17 14GP .914 & 17-18 18GP .934

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I have no idea what their HDSV% is, but their backups have been awful the the last two seasons. I didnt even know that was a stat or where to find it.

Garret Sparks 18-19 20GP .902
Michael Hutchinson 19-20 20GP .886

Curtis McElhinney 16-17 14GP .914 & 17-18 18GP .934

My point was that people look at "shots" and assume that a goalie will do so much better in Carolina and don't look at the whole picture. Carolina thrives on getting the puck and keeping it and their defense is mobile and skilled to do that, but when they have breakdowns or get hemmed in their own zone, they give up a lot of high danger chances. So assuming a goalie will do better in Carolina because of "less shots" isn't a given.