Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[DRW204]

Are we underrating the value of a year's worth of a great player, and overrating the value of a first round draft pick + prospect?

If it's so obvious and stupid to walk a player to free agency, why are so many other GM's willing to pay the first rounder + prospect price for them as rentals? Not to say GMs always make perfect decisions, but you'd think the value would be at least close to commensurate.

like everything it depends... lots of factors or assumptions at play.

i don't know if it is as common anymore.... out of the 1sts that were traded for non-rentals at the TDL they were: meier, chychrun, ekholm, gavrikov, hronek, sandin, and hagel (2022 trade for 2023 1st). edit: Just to contrast 5 years ago at the TDL this is the non-rental players traded for 1sts - jt miller+r. mcdonagh (same trade) , hartman.

Rentals:
BOS: Bertuzzi, Orlov were rentals
NYR (pending): Tarasenko, Kane
LA: Korpisalo (but also included gavrikov so )

i don't think either of those teams have trouble in marquee player trades or FA signings. so if they do not have a late 1st to draft a player it may be nbd to them, they can sign or trade for players to fill holes pretty handedly.

the Jets to contrast aren't a hot destination. so drafting/developing and trading for RFAs/under 27 year olds is probably their best avenue to obtain some of their key personnel. so letting 2 players walk who can return you 1sts+ may not be the best move (unless they win the Cup).

 

[scelaton]

This is what I am confused by- I see people here saying all the time about how "Chevy has the hardest job in the league, no one wants to sign here, this market is not like 95% of the other markets". If that is the case then why is it acceptable to act like 95% of other teams? Logic dictates that if you are in a situation that makes things more difficult for you than 90% of the population and you want to keep up with or beat the 90% of the said population then you cannot simply do the same as the 90% of the population and expect success.

It's like if you are genetically predisposed to alcholism and in the past have had bouts of alcholism. You can't just say oh well everyone else has a drink after work so I am going to do it too because everyone else does and it is considered normal.

I hope Chevy/Chipman are willing to take a longer view than set the franchise back multiple years for the sake of 2 games and 2-3 home playoff games. True leadership involves making difficult decisions. The people who are not going to come to games the rest of the season for 10-15 home games if 55/37 are traded are not going to come to watch the Jets next season anyways when 55 and 37 are not on the team so that point is completely moot. That is not the population you should be optimizing for. Or else you turn into the Canucks, a fanbase that has so little confidence left in the management that they can't sell tickets despite committing to being a playoff team every season.

I like this view and agree that the Jets need a differentiating strategy. Big parts of that strategy were draft & develop, maximize value in trades, and treat the stars who stay very well. They got that last part right, probably to a fault.

The other big part--a harder part for a loyal organization--is to know when to cut bait. I personally think that Helle and Mark have already told the organization they want out, as did Maurice and Wheeler. Now Chevy has to figure out a way to do it in a very weak sellers market.
If both players start the year with the Jets that doesn't mean the plan has changed, only that the execution of it is delayed.

 

[tbcwpg]

I'm less in favour of our team being f***ed in 2 years and I'm getting worried this is the minority opinion

I think they're bad in 2 years either way.

 

[B33R LEAGUE]

Many fans/media saying this team is gonna be worse this year without PLD.

On paper I would agree, but there's something weird about this team when they are labelled underdogs.

Ive said this before:::: but It's almost like there are a lot less heads in asses when the jets are perceived as one of the weaker teams in the league. Like they have something to prove.

I'm all for it.

#bringbackbluecollarjets

 

[surixon]

Many fans/media saying this team is gonna be worse this year without PLD.

On paper I would agree, but there's something weird about this team when they are labelled underdogs.

Ive said this before:::: but It's almost like there are a lot less heads in asses when the jets are perceived as one of the weaker teams in the league. Like they have something to prove.

I'm all for it.

#bringbackbluecollarjets

Honestly Dubois wasn't anything super special here. Good player but hardly a cornerstone piece. We will miss him but his loss can be overcome with improved depth.

Speaking of Dubois, apparently JR goes off on him Pierre-Luc Dubois just got told the hard truth, and it's causing a huge reaction

 

[Aggie204]

Honestly Dubois wasn't anything super special here. Good player but hardly a cornerstone piece. We will miss him but his loss can be overcome with improved depth.

Speaking of Dubois, apparently JR goes off on him Pierre-Luc Dubois just got told the hard truth, and it's causing a huge reaction

Roenick is a wind bag, but he is not wrong this time.

 

[10Ducky10]

 

[JetsFan815]

Funny how I was saying this about Dubois all last season and people kept calling me a hater and criticizing me. Now everyone is singing the same tune about him.

 

[voyageur]

This is a key point. Connor was clear that he doesn't want a rebuild. I'd bet Ehlers and any other players in the prime of their careers would want out of a team that was in full rebuild mode.

So, if the Jets go into a rebuild (by trading 55 and 37 for futures), the Jets would be looking at an exodus of Connor, Vilardi, Ehlers, etc. over the next few years. Now you have to deal with a protracted rebuild over a longer timeline, that could end up with a deep spiral for a franchise that is already a hard-sell.

That's why I think the Jets are trying to make hockey trades for Hellebuyck and Scheifele, rather than futures, as they did with PLD.

If the Jets do decide to fold the tent sometime this season and trade 55 and 37 for 1sts / prospects at the TDL, I could see them trying to rebound right away by moving picks at the draft to acquire roster talent right away, with lots of cap flexibility. That maneuver would fulfill one of my favourite "value" moves available in the NHL - acquire picks at the TDL when pick value is at its least, and trade picks at the draft when pick value is at its peak.

I honestly think this is the last kick at the can. Dubois was grossly inconsistent in his time here, and never stepped up when he had to. The Jets are 1-8 in the playoffs without Mark Scheifele. They were 5-8 with Dubois, but 0-5 with Dubois and no Scheif...

Namestnikov put up PPG numbers finishing the year in the 2C spot... I think that's probably an overachievement, but he might be a good fit here, surprisingly complimentary with Ehlers game.

This is the 1st year the Jets officially have no players linked to the Thrashers...Blake Wheeler was significantly declining, and the Jets couldn't afford to keep paying for less value.

I think having what 6 potential UFAs could be a gold mine, in terms of performance, as most of those guys will be cashing out for likely the last time in their career after this season. I think this could be the motivation that a Winnipeg winter doesn't offer, that could inspire some career performances this year. It's one last year to contend with the core that Chevy obviously likes.

We'll see how far it goes, but on paper goaltending depth is improved, and the bottom lines should be improved, Adam Lowry might have the best linemates of his entire 3C career this year, depending on how it plays out.

I definitely think there is a playoff team here, and the potential for some distance with this group, which should remain one of the better special teams organizations for another year...

After this year, if it becomes Mc Groarty, Lucius, Lambert taking over for Scheif, Niedrreiter, Namestnikov, Heinola and Lundmark stepping up on defense, and a stop gap goalie until Diventis is ready, I will be happy that the Jets at least went for it with a talented group assembled...only to rebuild the core when it was the right time, and young players were the right age to move to the next level.

 

[Atoyot]

Funny how I was saying this about Dubois all last season and people kept calling me a hater and criticizing me. Now everyone is singing the same tune about him.

I'm going to be the dissident on this. I thought Dubois was fantastic this past season. It's easy for Roenick to regurgitate opinions on a player he likely only watched a handful of times throughout the year. He's just latching on to the narratives. Dubois didn't want to be here, he worked his ass off, and that helped us get the best possible return for him. He could have tanked his value but he didn't and I appreciate that. He's going to be good in LA, I'm very happy with the return we got. There doesn't always have to be a bad guy.

 

[Jets 31]

I don't think Chevy lets Helly and Scheifele walk for absolutely nothing, he hasn't done that with any of our core players since day 1 why do some people think he will do this with one of the best goalies in the NHL and a 40 goal scoring center. It they want out and have told Chevy this they will get traded and going by the Dubois trade it won't be just for draft picks.

 

[tbcwpg]

Funny how I was saying this about Dubois all last season and people kept calling me a hater and criticizing me. Now everyone is singing the same tune about him.

That's not why people said that, at least not me, but sure.

I don't begrudge a player doing what's under the CBA to play where he wants. College draft picks have done it. Andrew Copp did the same strategy of signing short deals towards UFA. Trouba did it.

I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes more the norm than signing long term deals with the team that drafted you just because they picked you. Unfortunately for markets like Winnipeg it's just going to make things that much more difficult.

 

[surixon]

That's not why people said that, at least not me, but sure.

I don't begrudge a player doing what's under the CBA to play where he wants. College draft picks have done it. Andrew Copp did the same strategy of signing short deals towards UFA. Trouba did it.

I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes more the norm than signing long term deals with the team that drafted you just because they picked you. Unfortunately for markets like Winnipeg it's just going to make things that much more difficult.

NBA stars have been doing it for ages now. Not all that surprising that NHL stars are catching on.

 

[Weezeric]

It’s getting quite late in the summer for so much having to be sorted out still. Tarasenko and Dumba still out there. Flames and Jets with all their upcoming UFAs. Nylander and Matthews still unsigned. Many teams with some cap issues to figure out.

Should make for an interesting August/September.

 

[ps241]

It's tough to say that with absolute certainty unless you know what kind of return chevy has been offered in a trade for each of them

Like you said, we're talking about a #1 centre and a great goalie. Those aren't easy to come by. Having them for a season absolutely has value beyond asset management

Lots of folks were bemoaning chevy and his approach that has landed us in the "mushy middle" of mediocrity. If you want the Jets to be as good as possible next season, those guys are on the roster

At the end of the day, we're probably looking at late 1sts and a b prospect for both of them. There's a very good chance that most or all of the assets we get back in those trades will amount to nothing in the NHL anyway

The flip side is there is a good chance our run this season would amount to nothing as well. In both cases you have to role the dice to find out. I will support the club no matter what route they choose.

This is a key point. Connor was clear that he doesn't want a rebuild. I'd bet Ehlers and any other players in the prime of their careers would want out of a team that was in full rebuild mode.

So, if the Jets go into a rebuild (by trading 55 and 37 for futures), the Jets would be looking at an exodus of Connor, Vilardi, Ehlers, etc. over the next few years. Now you have to deal with a protracted rebuild over a longer timeline, that could end up with a deep spiral for a franchise that is already a hard-sell.

That's why I think the Jets are trying to make hockey trades for Hellebuyck and Scheifele, rather than futures, as they did with PLD.

If the Jets do decide to fold the tent sometime this season and trade 55 and 37 for 1sts / prospects at the TDL, I could see them trying to rebound right away by moving picks at the draft to acquire roster talent right away, with lots of cap flexibility. That maneuver would fulfill one of my favourite "value" moves available in the NHL - acquire picks at the TDL when pick value is at its least, and trade picks at the draft when pick value is at its peak.

I would like hockey trades for Scheifele and Hellebuyck if we could get fair value.

However, assuming for a second we do the own rentals on Helle and Scheifele because we are in a playoff spot at the deadline. We then signaled to the team we aren’t in full rebuild. That means the pressure is off selling Connor and Ehlers, however, by the 2024-25 season I’m not sure it matters. Ehlers will be in the last year of his contract and 29, Connor will have two seasons left that will take him to 30. Rightly or wrongly, I look at them as part of the Scheifele era group, my guess is they probably want a change of scenery on their next contracts too no matter whether we are sticking with the Flames approach. Jets can help bridge the transition until our prospects are more ready if we need them to do it. They are both professionals and under contract. Their stay won’t be long if they don’t want it to be.

Vilardi just came off a season where he earned league minimum, he is just getting his career established and is under team control for a while. I look at him differently. Even then he will be part of an org that was committed to winning in 2023-24 so he knows the team wants to win.

When Helle and Scheifele are gone we will have cap space, lots of money to sign new talent, and hopefully our prospects pan out and we begin to backfill as the Scheifele era sunsets. We may avoid having to go into a rebuild like the other orgs that don’t do rebuilds. It will come down to how well we have drafted.

 

[Buffdog]

The flip side is there is a good chance our run this season would amount to nothing as well. In both cases you have to role the dice to find out. I will support the club no matter what route they choose.

There's a 31/32 chance that every teams' run this season (and every season) won't amount to much if the only acceptable outcome is winning it all (as some posters on HFJets seem to believe). People shit on chevy for being satisfied with just making the playoffs, but to me, having that as a minimal acceptable outcome every season isn't so bad. I'd honestly be curious to see what level of playoff success the Jets would need to have every season for them to be happy - in other words, what does "amount to SOMETHING" actually mean?

I'm like you... I'll enjoy watching the Jets regardless of outcome, just happy to have a team to cheer for again... but that's just my nature as a person.

 

[jokesondee]

I'm going to be the dissident on this. I thought Dubois was fantastic this past season. It's easy for Roenick to regurgitate opinions on a player he likely only watched a handful of times throughout the year. He's just latching on to the narratives. Dubois didn't want to be here, he worked his ass off, and that helped us get the best possible return for him. He could have tanked his value but he didn't and I appreciate that. He's going to be good in LA, I'm very happy with the return we got. There doesn't always have to be a bad guy.

*was fantastic for 1/2 the season.

 

[WaveRaven]

I personally can't stand clawing to be a bubble team. Its the absolute worst position to be in as you never get anywhere. Perpetual mediocrity. Just making the playoffs doesn't move the needle for me.

 

[MelikeJets]

I personally can't stand clawing to be a bubble team. Its the absolute worst position to be in as you never get anywhere. Perpetual mediocrity. Just making the playoffs doesn't move the needle for me.

Same here. I'd rather finish near bottom with hope of great draftees for a few years then being a bubble team.

 

[Flair Hay]

The flip side is there is a good chance our run this season would amount to nothing as well. In both cases you have to role the dice to find out. I will support the club no matter what route they choose.



I would like hockey trades for Scheifele and Hellebuyck if we could get fair value.

However, assuming for a second we do the own rentals on Helle and Scheifele because we are in a playoff spot at the deadline. We then signaled to the team we aren’t in full rebuild. That means the pressure is off selling Connor and Ehlers, however, by the 2024-25 season I’m not sure it matters. Ehlers will be in the last year of his contract and 29, Connor will have two seasons left that will take him to 30. Rightly or wrongly, I look at them as part of the Scheifele era group, my guess is they probably want a change of scenery on their next contracts too no matter whether we are sticking with the Flames approach. Jets can help bridge the transition until our prospects are more ready if we need them to do it. They are both professionals and under contract. Their stay won’t be long if they don’t want it to be.

Vilardi just came off a season where he earned league minimum, he is just getting his career established and is under team control for a while. I look at him differently. Even then he will be part of an org that was committed to winning in 2023-24 so he knows the team wants to win.

When Helle and Scheifele are gone we will have cap space, lots of money to sign new talent, and hopefully our prospects pan out and we begin to backfill as the Scheifele era sunsets. We may avoid having to go into a rebuild like the other orgs that don’t do rebuilds. It will come down to how well we have drafted.

The thing about this own rental thing is we are burying ourselves long term.

Is it okay to do the same thing with Connor in 2 years? What if we are in a playoff spot but not a top team. Would we keep him as an own rental as well?

Now, you're up to 3 first round picks you could have had. What about the next year with Ehlers, etc, etc...

The best teams make tough choices when it is the correct thing to do. I hope the Jets are prepared to do that if 55 and 37 aren't extended here.

 

[KingBogo]

The thing about this own rental thing is we are burying ourselves long term.

Is it okay to do the same thing with Connor in 2 years? What if we are in a playoff spot but not a top team. Would we keep him as an own rental as well?

Now, you're up to 3 first round picks you could have had. What about the next year with Ehlers, etc, etc...

The best teams make tough choices when it is the correct thing to do. I hope the Jets are prepared to do that if 55 and 37 aren't extended here.

On the flip side when do you stop selling? You can go on indefinitely selling your top players for mor and more draft picks. In 4 years Perfetti could be a pending UFA. That is only a year after Connor.

 

[WpgSteve]

On the flip side when do you stop selling? You can go on indefinitely selling your top players for mor and more draft picks. In 4 years Perfetti could be a pending UFA. That is only a year after Connor.

Arizona is trying to figure this out. They are down to trading their prospects for draft picks now because they have too many prospects.

 

[ps241]

There's a 31/32 chance that every teams' run this season (and every season) won't amount to much if the only acceptable outcome is winning it all (as some posters on HFJets seem to believe). People shit on chevy for being satisfied with just making the playoffs, but to me, having that as a minimal acceptable outcome every season isn't so bad. I'd honestly be curious to see what level of playoff success the Jets would need to have every season for them to be happy - in other words, what does "amount to SOMETHING" actually mean?

I'm like you... I'll enjoy watching the Jets regardless of outcome, just happy to have a team to cheer for again... but that's just my nature as a person.

So my take for me personally since you asked about minimal acceptable outcome.

Winning a round is nice. Winning two rounds was amazing and it was really memorable.

Then we drop a tier

Making the playoffs and getting bounced 1st round is kind of meh for me now. There is value to the season drama if we are struggling for a playoff spot, then the value is squashed when we exit in 8 or 9 days later in a flat fashion. Also for me, unlike others, I am way less concerned when we miss the playoffs as long “as our team competes”. I like the years when we get better picks like Perfetti at #10 that can actually change the trajectory of our team for a decade (by that I mean core players vs complimentary assets) but I tend to get a bit more into the draft than the average fan (understatement alert). I don’t need the team to be in the playoffs every year, I don’t mind a blend of make and miss. I get just as much if not more value getting a Perfetti, Scheifele, Trouba, Laine as I do losing in the 1st round (yes that is a me thing I know).

What I don’t like is a hypothetical organizational philosophy where we are beholden to the fans or the players to go for it every season. It’s ok to take steps back at times. Notice I didn’t say full rebuild. Now I think there is probably more agreement on this last point so I won’t beat it to death.

The thing about this own rental thing is we are burying ourselves long term.

Is it okay to do the same thing with Connor in 2 years? What if we are in a playoff spot but not a top team. Would we keep him as an own rental as well?

Now, you're up to 3 first round picks you could have had. What about the next year with Ehlers, etc, etc...

The best teams make tough choices when it is the correct thing to do. I hope the Jets are prepared to do that if 55 and 37 aren't extended here.

If I was to summarize what I think I am seeing it might be:

Its fine to trade any player as long as we get a fair return (PLD this year)

then the battle line:

Its not ok to sell expiring assets at the trade deadline if the team is in a playoff Spot (Helle Scheif)

Or

Its not acceptable to keep valuable assets (Helle Schief) as own rentals if there is a deal to be had at the deadline (They can’t walk for free)

Then the end of the battle line:

lastly it is fine to sell valuable assets if we are out of the playoff race at the deadline Copp, (Helle Schief). This is where the GM gets to use his discretion like Armstrong or Poile did last season.



So with Kyle Connor 2 years from now if he isn’t coming back its best to make a trade like PLD. Fine to take him into the next season and own rental him if we are a playoff team or flip him if we are out of the playoffs, but some would say no on walkging KC to free agency.

clear as mud baby

 

[KingBogo]

From everything I can Chevy intends to take another run at playoff success next season. We have kept and even re-signed one of our veteran TDL acquisitions from last season, both aged 30. The PLD trade returned 3 now players, between the ages of 23-29. Actually the whole Jets team is in the 23-30 Y/O range except for Dillon and Schmidt a little above and Perfetti a little below. This is a age makeup that usually suggests we plan to compete now. I can see Scheifele and Helly moved in hockey trades bringing back fair value in now players, but not sure if there is much to that market? I can't see moving them for picks and prospects based on Chevy's moves since last season. As it is our current prospects are as likely as young as we can go and still be able to support the current core group. I think we run it back and hope on ice success leads to Scheifele and Helly wanting to stay, followed by the rest of the core group as they become due.

 

[Weezeric]

From everything I can Chevy intends to take another run at playoff success next season. We have kept and even re-signed one of our veteran TDL acquisitions from last season, both aged 30. The PLD trade returned 3 now players, between the ages of 23-29. Actually the whole Jets team is in the 23-30 Y/O range except for Dillon and Schmidt a little above and Perfetti a little below. This is an age makeup that usually suggests we plan to compete now. I can see Scheifele and Helly moved in hockey trades bringing back fair value in now players, but not sure if there is much to that market? I can't see moving them for picks and prospects based on Chevy's moves since last season. As it is our current prospects are as likely as young as we can go and still be able to support the current core group. I think we run it back and hope on ice success leads to Scheifele and Helly wanting to stay, followed by the rest of the core group as they become due.

I might add that it is rare for teams to win the Stanley cup being led by very young players. Usually the top players are around 30.

Vegas last year:

Best defencemen:
Pietrangelo, 33
Theodore: 27

Best forwards:
Marchessault, 32 (Conn Smythe)
Stone, 30
Eichel, 26

There are exceptions of course, but that is the rule.