Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[surixon]

@KingBogo I went back and looked at total shifts and he doesn't really do much better by that metric. He was 8th among forwards in shifts per game, tied with Iafallo, and behind Appelton. His average shift length was 50 seconds per game, tied with Perfetti for 4th on the team. Only the top line averages more.

So even going by that he's not deployed as one of the more important forwards. I get that he can drive offense no matter the center but they have deployed him driving the third most important line in more sheltered situations with limited pp time on the second unit. Not really what I'd call as being highly valued.

Also Cole showed he could drive that line just fine without Fly last year. The KC Monohan Perfetti; and the Perfetti, Name, and Iafallo lines did an excellent job. There was really no reason to not have Fly on the top line as he wasn't needed to drive line 2.

Edit: Or maybe use him on Lowrys line to drive offense given the minutes it eats.

 

[Buffdog]

@KingBogo I went back and looked at total shifts and he doesn't really do much better by that metric. He was 8th among forwards in shifts per game, tied with Iafallo, and behind Appelton. His average shift length was 50 seconds per game, tied with Perfetti for 4th on the team. Only the top line averages more.

So even going by that he's not deployed as one of the more important forwards. I get that he can drive offense no matter the center but they have deployed him driving the third most important line in more sheltered situations with limited pp time on the second unit. Not really what I'd call as being highly valued.

Also Cole showed he could drive that line just fine without Fly last year. The KC Monohan Perfetti; and the Perfetti, Name, and Iafallo lines did an excellent job. There was really no reason to not have Fly on the top line as he wasn't needed to drive line 2.

Edit: Or maybe use him on Lowrys line to drive offense given the minutes it eats.

Did you only look at 5v5 shifts?

Appleton and Iafallo both PK

 

[surixon]

Did you only look at 5v5 shifts?

Appleton and Iafallo both PK

No, I just looked at total. The PK is offset by Ehlers taking pp shifts.

 

[Jets 31]

I like Ehlers but some on here are maybe putting Ehlers up too high in their rating of him. His shooting percentage last season was 11th on the team, he was 10.7 , Lowry who most would say they would love if he could score more was 10.1 . Scheifele was 16.2 and Connor was 15.4 , Vilardi was 18.8 although he only played 47 games. And lets not forget how Ehlers is a no-show come playoffs .

 

[Buffdog]

No, I just looked at total. The PK is offset by Ehlers taking pp shifts.

PK shifts are shorter and turn over more quickly than PP shifts... not to mention that there are some PPs where unit 2 doesn't get out because unit one scores (rarely lol) or they just stay out the two minutes with possession

Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but over an 82 game schedule one or two specialty teams shifts more per game by apples or iafallo adds up to 160 shifts per season more just right there

 

[surixon]

PK shifts are shorter and turn over more quickly than PP shifts... not to mention that there are some PPs where unit 2 doesn't get out because unit one scores (rarely lol) or they just stay out the two minutes with possession

Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but over an 82 game schedule one or two specialty teams shifts more per game by apples or iafallo adds up to 160 shifts per season more just right there

I went and tried to find those numbers. Can't find a breakdown of shifts by game state but Appelton did get more ES time on ice per game.

In the end I think the point I'm trying to make is this team has utilized Ehlers as a secondary piece for most of his tenure here. His total ice time, number of shifts, and secondary pp time indicates a player that isn't seen as a core piece here.

Heck Lowry and another third liner saw almost double the per game average of 3 on 3 time as him and you'd think that would be a game state he'd be best utilized in.

 

[Jet]

Possibly, but I still don't see why he'd reup with us given his treatment here.

Unless of course fans are making up this mistreatment.

When you actually run the numbers I believe his number of shifts compares favorably with other top forwards and he just comes off the ice first most times.

What other 'treatment' might you be talking about? I guess an argument could be made about PP time.

 

[surixon]

Unless of course fans are making up this mistreatment.

When you actually run the numbers I believe his number of shifts compares favorably with other top forwards and he just comes off the ice first most times.

What other 'treatment' might you be talking about? I guess an argument could be made about PP time.

As I pointed out he's 8th in shifts per game and is tied for 4th in average shift length per game. Those numbers do support his total ice time numbers and dispel he takes much shorter shifts then other top 6 players.

 

[Buffdog]

Unless of course fans are making up this mistreatment.

When you actually run the numbers I believe his number of shifts compares favorably with other top forwards and he just comes off the ice first most times.

What other 'treatment' might you be talking about? I guess an argument could be made about PP time.

I 100% think there is a lot of "I'm a fan of Ehlers and think that he's been misused and/or mistreated therefore he must think that too" going on

I could get behind the "Maurice has something against Ehlers" idea but then Bones came in and did the same thing

Fans on here with no knowledge about Ehlers beyond watching games and looking at spreadsheets think they know better than a couple of coaches who see him every day and have a combined 2650 NHL games coached

I'll get accused of "appeal to authority", but that's fine

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Who is refusing to sign?

Who isn't signed yet?

Is he refusing?

Do you know the answers?

 

[DRW204]

Putting him with Scheifele DOES make for our 2 best lines. Connor scores more, plays better away from Scheif.

Scoring totals pay off at contract time. Jets treatment of Ehlers limits his scoring numbers and has probably cost him millions in career earnings.

Maybe he is just fine with that. Maybe he is fine with always being the first player criticized or demoted.

If they offer enough $$$ he might take that as sufficient respect and the financial reward he is due. How much might that take and how much do you think Chevy will pay? Will those 2 numbers coincide?

yeah connor's best season in individual production came primarily away from scheifele in 21-22. connor away from scheifele has generally been a (+) player. so historically you have had opportunity for a v positive top-line (rather than hovering negative/even) getting a lion-share of the minutes, with the 2nd line still being good. it's not like the 2nd line is garbage w/o ehlers this past year at least (ie: iafallo-names-perfetti), or those years w/ PLD & Connor (w/ some combo of Svech or Perfetti).

ppl on this forum get hyper-focused on individual production, when the connor-scheifele-(not ehlers) combo has been a negative duo last year, year before that, year before that, and the year before that. all while with the top regular-season goalie backing them.

using Scheifele as a top-line reference point - he was a +16 this year, +14 of that can be attributed to ehlers-scheifele-X (CSE +3, ESV +10).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We don't know if they were shopping Ehlers for Necas, that is pure speculation as nothing was ever reported directly about that. Also the Jets have made most of their big pending UFA signings later than this. Helly and Schiefele were signed on October 9th last season.

We don't know anything. It is all speculation. Especially if you will only accept it in writing from Chevy, who never says anything.

Different situations.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The evidence would suggest that Ehlers is the winger that is the least dependent on his center for production and drives his line no matter who he plays with. In that situation most teams would want to separate their #1 center from their winger that least needs to play with him. I very much doubt that Ehlers numbers would be much different playing more with Schiefele.

Just to add to this I'm not advocating Schiefele Connor combination, just making the argument that Ehlers is the winger least in need of playing with a #1 center. Actually the evidence strongly suggest that Perfetti should be given more opportunity with Schiefele as their numbers together are very good.

You've made that argument before. I don't think it holds water. It may, or may not be how Jets see it. It is not supported by data.

Correct or not, using Ehlers that way is suppressing his potential and his earning power. He has been singled out for criticism while other's flaws have been papered over. Jets have given him plenty of reasons to be unhappy with his treatment. Maybe he has very thick skin and little ambition in which case he may be happy with Jets. Maybe he does not and is not.

 

[Jet]

As I pointed out he's 8th in shifts per game and is tied for 4th in average shift length per game. Those numbers do support his total ice time numbers and dispel he takes much shorter shifts then other top 6 players.

OK, but how does Nik feel about this? Maybe he's fine with it. Does anyone know? Is there any evidence that he feels mistreated? Or, is it just fans that want him utilized differently and they're projecting their feelings on it?

You've made that argument before. I don't think it holds water. It may, or may not be how Jets see it. It is not supported by data.

Correct or not, using Ehlers that way is suppressing his potential and his earning power. He has been singled out for criticism while other's flaws have been papered over. Jets have given him plenty of reasons to be unhappy with his treatment. Maybe he has very thick skin and little ambition in which case he may be happy with Jets. Maybe he does not and is not.

Sure, but this whole line of discourse started by Surixon claiming that Ehlers treatment would prevent him from signing - there is zero evidence of this.

 

[surixon]

OK, but how does Nik feel about this? Maybe he's fine with it. Does anyone know? Is there any evidence that he feels mistreated? Or, is it just fans that want him utilized differently and they're protecting their feelings on it?

He very well could be, but we are talking about this in regards to his next contract. If you are Chevy what are you comfortable pay for a player about to enter the back 9 that you utilize largely as a support piece. If you are Nik and this is your last chance at a big payday do you accept a contract that reflects that, or do you go to market and try to get a contract that you feel us more reflective of your talent.

 

[WolfHouse]

We are also ignoring Ehlers back issues... maybe the coaches are trying to help him last a season ad opposed to sabotaging him...

 

[scelaton]

OK, but how does Nik feel about this? Maybe he's fine with it. Does anyone know? Is there any evidence that he feels mistreated? Or, is it just fans that want him utilized differently and they're projecting their feelings on it?


Sure, but this whole line of discourse started by Surixon claiming that Ehlers treatment would prevent him from signing - there is zero evidence of this.

Surixon has been most vocal, but there are others--like me--who feel similarly, but are weary of the circular discussion.

What I have said is that if I were Ehlers (very knowledgeable) father or agent, looking at the totality of his utilization in Winnipeg, I would strongly advise him to consider other teams, where he would paid more and be expected to be used to his full potential.

Factors that could mitigate against a move away would be Nik's happiness level in Wpg outside the arena, increasing utilization plans explicitly expressed by the new coach and a juicy contract commensurate with that revaluation.

I don't have any inside info. All I can say is that, having looked at the metrics (his own and WOWY) that have been discussed here ad nauseam and using my excellent pair of eyes, if I were Nik I would be looking to get out of Dodge. Chevy and Arniel still have a chance to change that, but they'll have to show him a whole lotta love (and money).

 

[surixon]

We are also ignoring Ehlers back issues... maybe the coaches are trying to help him last a season ad opposed to sabotaging him...

That is a fair point but his usage and deployment has been pretty consistent for a good 5 years now. He's consistently finished between 6th and 8th in ice time per game and shifts per game.

 

[MelikeJets]

Surixon has been most vocal, but there are others--like me--who feel similarly, but are weary of the circular discussion.

What I have said is that if I were Ehlers (very knowledgeable) father or agent, looking at the totality of his utilization in Winnipeg, I would strongly advise him to consider other teams, where he would paid more and be expected to be used to his full potential.

Factors that could mitigate against a move away would be Nik's happiness level in Wpg outside the arena, increasing utilization plans explicitly expressed by the new coach and a juicy contract commensurate with that revaluation.

I don't have any inside info. All I can say is that, having looked at the metrics (his own and WOWY) that have been discussed here ad nauseam and using my excellent pair of eyes, if I were Nik I would be looking to get out of Dodge. Chevy and Arniel still have a chance to change that, but they'll have to show him a whole lotta love (and money).

What do think Ehlers is worth in trade value?

 

[KingBogo]

OK, but how does Nik feel about this? Maybe he's fine with it. Does anyone know? Is there any evidence that he feels mistreated? Or, is it just fans that want him utilized differently and they're projecting their feelings on it?


Sure, but this whole line of discourse started by Surixon claiming that Ehlers treatment would prevent him from signing - there is zero evidence of this.

If Ehlers has said anything about not wanting to re-sign I certainly haven't heard it or read anything other than speculation around here. Also, as I've posted before if the Jets didn't think he would re-sign IMO he would have been dealt in and around the draft on the run up to free agency as that is when Chevy would have got his best return that would have been more than a pure futures return he would likely get at the TDL. My guess is they have probably had some ball park talks with his camp and serious negotiations will take place once camp opens and we will see a late camp announcement similar to Helly and Schiefele last season to help juice the season starting PR.

 

[scelaton]

What do think Ehlers is worth in trade value?

A lot--specifics depend on the timing of the trade. Lots has been written, here's just one example written before the draft.

Nikolaj Ehlers trade destinations: If the Jets move him, what can they get?

Ehlers is one year away from becoming a UFA and is expected to be shopped by the Jets ahead of the NHL Draft.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I think Ehlers wants a big payday. I am curious as to what people would give him.

 

[KingBogo]

I think Ehlers wants a big payday. I am curious as to what people would give him.

Not sure their is a pending UFA in their prime who doesn't want to maximize their big UFA deal. Personally I'd go something like 7 X $8 M.

 

[Jets 31]

Not sure their is a pending UFA in their prime who doesn't want to maximize their big UFA deal. Personally I'd go something like 7 X $8 M.

I would maybe go 7x7 million, i have a tough time getting by the playoffs stats of 4 goals and 14 points in 37 games played.

 

[SCP Guy]

I agree he is worth about 7X7.....add in the tax to play in Winnipeg and prob 7x7.25