Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[DRW204]

EvolvingHockey has Ehlers at 5*7.5m or 8*8.8m this summer.

 

[fmrdh]

I still think that under the right circumstances health wise, Nikolaj Ehlers has an 80+ point season in him.

 

[Whileee]

I think Ehlers wants a big payday. I am curious as to what people would give him.

Well, if he has had two herniated discs as reported then his value would be affected. Jets would be reluctant to commit. Maybe that's been an issue.

 

[KingBogo]

Well, if he has had two herniated discs as reported then his value would be affected. Jets would be reluctant to commit. Maybe that's been an issue.

This news throws a wrench into several of the ongoing discussions on Ehlers.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Well, if he has had two herniated discs as reported then his value would be affected. Jets would be reluctant to commit. Maybe that's been an issue.

Where is this being reported?

We have limited access to some NA news sites from the UK.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure, but this whole line of discourse started by Surixon claiming that Ehlers treatment would prevent him from signing - there is zero evidence of this.

Of course no one can claim it as fact. He hasn't publicly stated as much. He hasn't publicly stated the opposite either. There is zero evidence that he will extend here.

It is an opinion, based on what we have seen of his treatment by the team over the years. Anyone is free to disagree.

Personally I would make it about 60/40 that he goes to UFA but there are a lot of unknowns that could affect his final decision.

 

[bumblebeeman]

EvolvingHockey has Ehlers at 5*7.5m or 8*8.8m this summer.

I would've thought the longer deal would've had a lower average.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I 100% think there is a lot of "I'm a fan of Ehlers and think that he's been misused and/or mistreated therefore he must think that too" going on

I could get behind the "Maurice has something against Ehlers" idea but then Bones came in and did the same thing

Fans on here with no knowledge about Ehlers beyond watching games and looking at spreadsheets think they know better than a couple of coaches who see him every day and have a combined 2650 NHL games coached

I'll get accused of "appeal to authority", but that's fine

There certainly could be more to the story - but what we see is real. It just may be less than the whole picture. Or maybe it is the whole picture. The additions to the story are pure conjecture - vs the real part that we can see.

 

[MelikeJets]

Of course no one can claim it as fact. He hasn't publicly stated as much. He hasn't publicly stated the opposite either. There is zero evidence that he will extend here.

It is an opinion, based on what we have seen of his treatment by the team over the years. Anyone is free to disagree.

Personally I would make it about 60/40 that he goes to UFA but there are a lot of unknowns that could affect his final decision.

If he goes to UFA there will be at least 10 teams after him...could be interesting.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

OK, but how does Nik feel about this? Maybe he's fine with it. Does anyone know? Is there any evidence that he feels mistreated? Or, is it just fans that want him utilized differently and they're projecting their feelings on it?


Sure, but this whole line of discourse started by Surixon claiming that Ehlers treatment would prevent him from signing - there is zero evidence of this.

Yes, it is all conjecture. I know how I would feel if I was him. Keep in mind that it is not all just pride. It is also big financially.

 

[DRW204]

I would've thought the longer deal would've had a lower average.

Not sure. This screen shot below is from end of May, it differs a bit from when I saw a different post on it which was around FA and had a tad different numbers (more FAs signed would change the numbers a bit)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Surixon has been most vocal, but there are others--like me--who feel similarly, but are weary of the circular discussion.

What I have said is that if I were Ehlers (very knowledgeable) father or agent, looking at the totality of his utilization in Winnipeg, I would strongly advise him to consider other teams, where he would paid more and be expected to be used to his full potential.

Factors that could mitigate against a move away would be Nik's happiness level in Wpg outside the arena, increasing utilization plans explicitly expressed by the new coach and a juicy contract commensurate with that revaluation.

I don't have any inside info. All I can say is that, having looked at the metrics (his own and WOWY) that have been discussed here ad nauseam and using my excellent pair of eyes, if I were Nik I would be looking to get out of Dodge. Chevy and Arniel still have a chance to change that, but they'll have to show him a whole lotta love (and money).

Well said. Sums it up nicely.
Beyond that, we are arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

 

[Shaundogg]

If he goes to UFA there will be at least 10 teams after him...could be interesting.

If the Jets know he isn't wanting to sign here whatsoever then we know what Chevy has to do by the Trade Deadline. Get a decent return for Nik.

 

[abax44]

Lambert doesn't have the same talent nor shot as Ehlers.

Yeah, but he's 6'1. SIX FOOT ONE!!!

Vs the 6' of Ehlers.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Ehlers has said anything about not wanting to re-sign I certainly haven't heard it or read anything other than speculation around here. Also, as I've posted before if the Jets didn't think he would re-sign IMO he would have been dealt in and around the draft on the run up to free agency as that is when Chevy would have got his best return that would have been more than a pure futures return he would likely get at the TDL. My guess is they have probably had some ball park talks with his camp and serious negotiations will take place once camp opens and we will see a late camp announcement similar to Helly and Schiefele last season to help juice the season starting PR.

I haven't heard anything from him either. Haven't heard that he DOES want to re-sign anymore than I haven't heard that he does not.

Rumour suggests that they tried to trade him for Necas. Just rumour and speculation though.

There is some similarity to Scheif/Helle last year. But both of them were treated as the top players on the team. Neither was ever singled out for criticism by a coach.

It all comes down to how he feels about his treatment and usage. He is either happy with it or he isn't. Doesn't matter if it was good, or fair, or anything else. Only how he feels about it. None of us knows, one way or another.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Ehlers wants a big payday. I am curious as to what people would give him.

I am curious about how big he wants and how much Chevy will pay. And would he take less from another team?

A factor has to be his risk tolerance. If he signs he is guaranteed a number. If he decides to go to market he risks the financial effects of a bad season or a serious injury.

I would maybe go 7x7 million, i have a tough time getting by the playoffs stats of 4 goals and 14 points in 37 games played.

He gets the same sub-optimal usage in the PO as he does in the regular season. Not really an excuse. His PO production has been weak. But it could be a factor.

 

[Whileee]

Where is this being reported?

We have limited access to some NA news sites from the UK.

@DashingDane mentioned it in the Ehlers thread.

Player Discussion: - Ehlers

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, if he has had two herniated discs as reported then his value would be affected. Jets would be reluctant to commit. Maybe that's been an issue.

I don't recall seeing that reported. Is it news or history?

 

[Whileee]

I am curious about how big he wants and how much Chevy will pay. And would he take less from another team?

A factor has to be his risk tolerance. If he signs he is guaranteed a number. If he decides to go to market he risks the financial effects of a bad season or a serious injury.



He gets the same sub-optimal usage in the PO as he does in the regular season. Not really an excuse. His PO production has been weak. But it could be a factor.

If Ehlers has been dealing with herniated discs then there is going to be a balance of risk between the Jets and Ehlers. Ehlers might want security now, while the Jets might be reluctant to go to high with a lot of term. With around $50M or more on the line, the issue of insuring the contract might come into play. Suffice to say, I think it's likely a lot more complicated than just playing time, coaching, etc. with such a big contract and some uncertainty in play.

I don't recall seeing that reported. Is it news or history?

@DashingDane mentioned that there was a story in Danish media...

Player Discussion: - Ehlers

 

[KingBogo]

If the Jets know he isn't wanting to sign here whatsoever then we know what Chevy has to do by the Trade Deadline. Get a decent return for Nik.

Chevys trade history of late have been now player trades and not futures trades you see at the TDL. I think if they trade Ehlers it will be well before the TDL. Maybe Ehlers health status held up any potential trades in the early summer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Ehlers has been dealing with herniated discs then there is going to be a balance of risk between the Jets and Ehlers. Ehlers might want security now, while the Jets might be reluctant to go to high with a lot of term. With around $50M or more on the line, the issue of insuring the contract might come into play. Suffice to say, I think it's likely a lot more complicated than just playing time, coaching, etc. with such a big contract and some uncertainty in play.


@DashingDane mentioned that there was a story in Danish media...

Player Discussion: - Ehlers

Need some medical experts to chime in. That report said he is now fully recovered and ready to play but that may not be as simple as that statement.

 

[DRW204]

as a non-medical expert who probably has herniated disc(s) from sports, powerlifting, lifting in general and whatnot. i think it's essentially pain/discomfort management & eventually the pain/discomfort does kind of just go away but i don't think the actual herniated disc ever fully heals unless you get surgery. i am going to guess most people who do intense physical activity have herniated discs but they just don't know. but then you have Jack Eichel, but i think his was moreso neck surgery. But yeah not a doctor lol.

 

[DashingDane]

Need some medical experts to chime in. That report said he is now fully recovered and ready to play but that may not be as simple as that statement.

Here is the article (in Danish) https://www.bt.dk/oevrig-sport/ehlers-trodser-to-diskusprolapser-og-er-klar-til-ol-jagt

He doesn't disclose a ton of details but does mention that the injury in worst case could result in surgery. Says he isn't and wasn't close to that.

Either way, risky for the Jets to give an expensive contract with all the issues he has had.

 

[10Ducky10]

I'd move him well before Christmas if not sooner.
Buffalo doesn't have any RHD but they have a lot of good, young players and prospects not to mention 1st round draft picks.
A trade based around an extended Ehlers and Schneider from NY?
What about a trade based on Ehlers and Nemec?

 

[Buffdog]

as a non-medical expert who probably has herniated disc(s) from sports, powerlifting, lifting in general and whatnot. i think it's essentially pain/discomfort management & eventually the pain/discomfort does kind of just go away but i don't think the actual herniated disc ever fully heals unless you get surgery. i am going to guess most people who do intense physical activity have herniated discs but they just don't know. but then you have Jack Eichel, but i think his was moreso neck surgery. But yeah not a doctor lol.

I have experience with disc issues both professionally and (unfortunately) personally

The one thing that jumps out at me with herniations is that the severity on imaging (MRI is thr gold standard) doesn't always correlate with the severity of symptoms

I read a ton of MRI reports and I'm surprised at how many times I see one where the disc is contacting the nerve root and the patient has mild symptoms or when the herniation doesn't contact the nerve root but they have severe symptoms

In fact, you could grab 100 asymptomatic people and throw them all in an MRI tube and a certain percentage (too lazy to look up the study) would have herniations. A significant percentage would have bulges

So TL/DR is that the level to which Ehlers was affected on the ice by his disc issues is largely dependent on how symptomatic he was (obviously lol)