Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[jgimp]

I'd move him well before Christmas if not sooner.
Buffalo doesn't have any RHD but they have a lot of good, young players and prospects not to mention 1st round draft picks.
A trade based around an extended Ehlers and Schneider from NY?
What about a trade based on Ehlers and Nemec?

Neither one of those is realistic IMO. Rags are high on Schneider. They would/will be moving Trouba to make room on the T4 for him.
Nemec is a young RHD with top pair potential. We would be adding big time but I don’t see the Devils moving him.
A more realistic option may be Morrow from the Canes. If Carolina was interested in an Ehlers/Necas swap, a morrow swap may be of interest.

 

[10Ducky10]

A more realistic option may be Morrow from the Canes. If Carolina was interested in an Ehlers/Necas swap, a morrow swap may be of interest.

Canes would have to add big time.
I'd rather add and get a really good RHD.

 

[Whileee]

Canes would have to add big time.
I'd rather add and get a really good RHD.

Just nothing that Salomonsson might become a very good RHD that can either play on a top pair with Morrissey or maybe anchor a second pair with a stay-at-home D like Samberg or a more offensive LHD if Heinola or Freij get to that level as mobile D with offense.

Salomonsson has a lot of attributes of Samberg defensively. He's not as big but he's much better on the rush and has more offensive potential.

I think he might really turn heads this training camp.

 

[TS Quint]

We are also ignoring Ehlers back issues... maybe the coaches are trying to help him last a season ad opposed to sabotaging him...

That hernia is a SOB as well. One of those essentially ended Ladds career.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That hernia is a SOB as well. One of those essentially ended Ladds career.

Ladd's was a Sports Hernia, not a disc hernia. Very different.

 

[TS Quint]

Ladd's was a Sports Hernia, not a disc hernia. Very different.

Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers to have sports hernia surgery | Winnipeg Jets

"We won't know the length of time he will be out until they get in there and see what they're dealing with."

www.nhl.com

"He will have a sports hernia surgery next week," Jets head coach Rick Bowness announced.

 

[DRW204]

Ladd's was a Sports Hernia, not a disc hernia. Very different.

Ehlers has had both

I have experience with disc issues both professionally and (unfortunately) personally

The one thing that jumps out at me with herniations is that the severity on imaging (MRI is thr gold standard) doesn't always correlate with the severity of symptoms

I read a ton of MRI reports and I'm surprised at how many times I see one where the disc is contacting the nerve root and the patient has mild symptoms or when the herniation doesn't contact the nerve root but they have severe symptoms

In fact, you could grab 100 asymptomatic people and throw them all in an MRI tube and a certain percentage (too lazy to look up the study) would have herniations. A significant percentage would have bulges

So TL/DR is that the level to which Ehlers was affected on the ice by his disc issues is largely dependent on how symptomatic he was (obviously lol)

yeah no idea what the parameters of that study are however my assumption is if you're lifting intensely, physical activity etc it's likely there's some probably some herniated discs going on. severity of discomfort/pain is all over the place as you mentioned though & would never know unless there's an MRI.

 

[TS Quint]

The real question is if Ehlers is physically able to handle top line/top PP minutes for a full season and playoffs. I think that plays a lot into his usage.

 

[surixon]

The real question is if Ehlers is physically able to handle top line/top PP minutes for a full season and playoffs. I think that plays a lot into his usage.

If he isn't physically able to then why would they even entertain signing him to a long term deal at this point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers to have sports hernia surgery | Winnipeg Jets

"We won't know the length of time he will be out until they get in there and see what they're dealing with."

www.nhl.com

"He will have a sports hernia surgery next week," Jets head coach Rick Bowness announced.

That was 2 years ago. He was 26 YO. The age when the surgery is performed makes a crazy difference. Before 30, rarely affects career. After 30 is very frequently career ending. You can look it up - or get an opinion from a medical expert.

What is being discussed now is 1 or possibly 2 herniated discs. Not the same thing at all.

 

[TS Quint]

If he isn't physically able to then why would they even entertain signing him to a long term deal at this point.

 

[TS Quint]

That was 2 years ago. He was 26 YO. The age when the surgery is performed makes a crazy difference. Before 30, rarely affects career. After 30 is very frequently career ending. You can look it up - or get an opinion from a medical expert.

What is being discussed now is 1 or possibly 2 herniated discs. Not the same thing at all.

Sports Hernia Recovery Could Be Hurting Andrew Ladd

Andrew Ladd hasn’t been the same this year. He hasn’t been one of the Jets best players, night in and night out. His poor play is coming at the worst of times for him and for Jets management.

www.arcticicehockey.com

According to a study done by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, players who have played over 7 full seasons (Ladd has 11 in the NHL under his belt) return from sports hernia injuries with a significant decrease in their overall performance levels.

Ehlers falls into this category. We are also talking about two consecutive years in dealing with hernias. That needs to be taken into account in his toi and usage as he probably wasn't 100% when he returned from either of these injuries.

Edit: no meaning to yell. Just how the copy/paste worked.

 

[Whileee]

That was 2 years ago. He was 26 YO. The age when the surgery is performed makes a crazy difference. Before 30, rarely affects career. After 30 is very frequently career ending. You can look it up - or get an opinion from a medical expert.

What is being discussed now is 1 or possibly 2 herniated discs. Not the same thing at all.

The point is that if the Jets are looking at a long-term deal for Ehlers there is very little question that considerations of his future durability will factor into their decision-making. Having surgery and cervical disc protrusions will be part of those considerations.

Conversely, it might make Ehlers a bit less enthusiastic about taking a risk and betting on himself this season because missing a chunk of time to injury will likely seriously affect his market value next summer.

The win-win scenario would be a deal that isn't too huge for the Jets, while also giving Ehlers long-term security.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

If he isn't physically able to then why would they even entertain signing him to a long term deal at this point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sports Hernia Recovery Could Be Hurting Andrew Ladd

Andrew Ladd hasn’t been the same this year. He hasn’t been one of the Jets best players, night in and night out. His poor play is coming at the worst of times for him and for Jets management.

www.arcticicehockey.com

According to a study done by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, players who have played over 7 full seasons (Ladd has 11 in the NHL under his belt) return from sports hernia injuries with a significant decrease in their overall performance levels.

Ehlers falls into this category. We are also talking about two consecutive years in dealing with hernias. That needs to be taken into account in his toi and usage as he probably wasn't 100% when he returned from either of these injuries.

Edit: no meaning to yell. Just how the copy/paste worked.

I looked up quite a bit of information at the time of Ladd's surgery. It related everything to age rather than seasons played. I can't comment on the validity of the criteria. The data I saw showed a stark difference between before 30 YO (even 28 or 29) and after 30 YO (even just 30 or 31).

Ehlers does not appear to have suffered after the sports hernia surgery, as would be expected at age 26.

The current issue is in another part of the body altogether, his spine. I don't see how there could possibly be any connection between the hernias. Two unrelated conditions. The only similarity is the use of the word hernia.

 

[DRW204]

I looked up quite a bit of information at the time of Ladd's surgery. It related everything to age rather than seasons played. I can't comment on the validity of the criteria. The data I saw showed a stark difference between before 30 YO (even 28 or 29) and after 30 YO (even just 30 or 31).

Ehlers does not appear to have suffered after the sports hernia surgery, as would be expected at age 26.

The current issue is in another part of the body altogether, his spine. I don't see how there could possibly be any connection between the hernias. Two unrelated conditions. The only similarity is the use of the word hernia.

might want to check core involvement your back or spine

 

[TS Quint]

I looked up quite a bit of information at the time of Ladd's surgery. It related everything to age rather than seasons played. I can't comment on the validity of the criteria. The data I saw showed a stark difference between before 30 YO (even 28 or 29) and after 30 YO (even just 30 or 31).

Ehlers does not appear to have suffered after the sports hernia surgery, as would be expected at age 26.

The current issue is in another part of the body altogether, his spine. I don't see how there could possibly be any connection between the hernias. Two unrelated conditions. The only similarity is the use of the word hernia.

You can argue with the American Journal of Sports Medicine all you want. I seriously doubt we hear about every single nagging injury players are left with after each major injury. Or if he was part of the minority of players who did have lingering issues from whatever you looked up.

I never said they weren't different injuries. You seem to be stuck on this for a few posts. First not knowing that he even had a Sports hernia. Then ignoring the probability that its likely that it effected him for longer than his return to the ice. Much like he was still suffring from his disc hernia. All I said they both most likely contribute to him not being 100% for the past two years and a simple explanation for his TOI and usage.

This seems far more likely that " coach is dumb, I'm so smart" narrative that is rampant on this board.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can argue with the American Journal of Sports Medicine all you want. I seriously doubt we hear about every single nagging injury players are left with after each major injury. Or if he was part of the minority of players who did have lingering issues from whatever you looked up.

I never said they weren't different injuries. You seem to be stuck on this for a few posts. First not knowing that he even had a Sports hernia. Then ignoring the probability that its likely that it effected him for longer than his return to the ice. Much like he was still suffring from his disc hernia. All I said they both most likely contribute to him not being 100% for the past two years and a simple explanation for his TOI and usage.

This seems far more likely that " coach is dumb, I'm so smart" narrative that is rampant on this board.

No, I'm not going to argue with them at all. I only stated what I had found about it some years ago.

You did not specifically say they were different injuries. You simply discussed the old one while seeming to ignore the current one.

Where did I say I didn't know that he had a sports hernia?

No, I don't that that is all you said. I don't think you said that at all. Or if you did, I missed it. That would be a whole different discussion.

I don't think his usage has been much different these past 2 years than earlier. It has been pretty much the same his whole career. And that may have been influenced by that sports hernia before he had the surgery. I wonder how long he played with it before the surgery?

 

[Flair Hay]

It's definitely not great to hear that Ehlers has these issues that could have a long term chronic effect and may never truly heal, just get aggravated with age...

That said, it certainly did not affect his on ice results last year. Or at least, they were still outstanding on a per minute basis like usual.

It is hard for either side to have any true certainty (bad coaching vs lightening the load) with a variable like this tossed in the middle of it.

 

[TS Quint]

No, I'm not going to argue with them at all. I only stated what I had found about it some years ago.

You did not specifically say they were different injuries. You simply discussed the old one while seeming to ignore the current one.

Where did I say I didn't know that he had a sports hernia?

No, I don't that that is all you said. I don't think you said that at all. Or if you did, I missed it. That would be a whole different discussion.

I don't think his usage has been much different these past 2 years than earlier. It has been pretty much the same his whole career. And that may have been influenced by that sports hernia before he had the surgery. I wonder how long he played with it before the surgery?

I'm not sure what your overall point is.

 

[DRW204]

It's definitely not great to hear that Ehlers has these issues that could have a long term chronic effect and may never truly heal, just get aggravated with age...

That said, it certainly did not affect his on ice results last year. Or at least, they were still outstanding on a per minute basis like usual.

It is hard for either side to have any true certainty (bad coaching vs lightening the load) with a variable like this tossed in the middle of it.

I'd be inclined to beleive at least at 5v5 that more minutes for ehelrs would be a negative for the team, however, the stats seem to showcase he's just as efficient if not better.

IIRC (on mobile rn but had looked at this other day) last three seasons: Pts/60 higher with scheifele, GF/60 is a tad higher with scheifele. more importantly overall the top line, which gets the a majority of 5v5 mins, has a way better goal differential. The second line has also had successful convos sans ehlers too.

 

[tbcwpg]

Just a heads up that the new season threads will go up after the long weekend.

 

[DRW204]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1829863568931430732

https://x.com/i/web/status/1829870193201525068

https://x.com/i/web/status/1829900544023855347

 

[Flair Hay]

I'd be inclined to beleive at least at 5v5 that more minutes for ehelrs would be a negative for the team, however, the stats seem to showcase he's just as efficient if not better.

IIRC (on mobile rn but had looked at this other day) last three seasons: Pts/60 higher with scheifele, GF/60 is a tad higher with scheifele. more importantly overall the top line, which gets the a majority of 5v5 mins, has a way better goal differential. The second line has also had successful convos sans ehlers too.

There is lots of explanations as to why his ice time is what it is so we aren't unfairly criticizing our own team.

There are probably a half dozen of them? Keeping him healthy, driving the second scoring line, shift length, inefficiency when he plays more mins, difficult to play with, bad turnovers. The injury stuff is hard to criticize, except it didn't seem to affect his performance much?

They all have plausibility and are perfectly logical reasons for doubt. And none have stood up to a whole lot of scrutiny on their own. Not from what I've seen anyway.

All this stuff is used to explain why it's understandable to have done what some real fundamental stats indicate is a bad idea. But none have really disproved the whole Scheifele-Connor-Ehlers suboptimal use, just provided reasoning behind the decision-making.

The team will be better with Scheifele and Ehlers on the top line, and Connor on the second scoring line. Give it half a season and it will play out the same way it has for years now in smaller stints. It sounds like Arniel may have clued into this already, and is planning to leverage this.

It's nice to know that our team had a great year and still has some room for improvement internally just from shuffling lines.

 

[DRW204]

There is lots of explanations as to why his ice time is what it is so we aren't unfairly criticizing our own team.

There are probably a half dozen of them? Keeping him healthy, driving the second scoring line, shift length, inefficiency when he plays more mins, difficult to play with, bad turnovers. The injury stuff is hard to criticize, except it didn't seem to affect his performance much?

They all have plausibility and are perfectly logical reasons for doubt. And none have stood up to a whole lot of scrutiny on their own. Not from what I've seen anyway.

All this stuff is used to explain why it's understandable to have done what some real fundamental stats indicate is a bad idea. But none have really disproved the whole Scheifele-Connor-Ehlers suboptimal use, just provided reasoning behind the decision-making.

The team will be better with Scheifele and Ehlers on the top line, and Connor on the second scoring line. Give it half a season and it will play out the same way it has for years now in smaller stints. It sounds like Arniel may have clued into this already, and is planning to leverage this.

It's nice to know that our team had a great year and still has some room for improvement internally just from shuffling lines.

driving the 2nd line is great and all, but imo not expense at the top line being around even or negative. there's also been 2nd line combos w/o ehlers that have been fine ie: iafallo-names-perfetti, or connor-pld-svech/perfetti.

id also say it's not unusual for the 2nd line to be the third-line in TOI as well. if the 2nd line is getting more or equal minutes than the 1st line then ok sure there's a better argument, & i think you'll get achieve better balance.

where is this whole inefficiency when he plays more minutes coming from exactly? if we consider ehlers-scheifele-x line duo as a reference point for him being top line (thus more minutes compared to his usual spot) the stats the last 3 seasons from what i gathered (from natural stat trick)

ehlers pts/60 does take a hit w/o scheifele for sure, but he's actually a more efficient scorer playing more minutes & w/ scheifele than not (duhh). a 2.49 pts/60 for reference would have been 24th in the NHL this year for Fwds, & still tops for the Jets. so still extremely good. I would expect there's a drop off playing w/ names, stastny, pld, copp etc. whoever else at 2c, but it's still hovering at elite NHL levels.

if anything, we should be talking how scheifele's efficiency takes a bigger overall hit among a combo of points,GF/60 and Goal-Differential. not the other way around. why is there such an avoidance on this forum in regards to that? seems like the "top line" talks or threads get hijacked to "oh no ehlers shouldn't be top line" or w/e. Scheifele's drop off in efficiency should be the more highlighted topic for real. (i even bolded and made it yellow).

as for the shifts/toi stuff.... at 5v5 in Dec-2023 ehlers and the Jets were at their best. using natural stat tricks "zone starts" and TOI at 5v5 it's like 2 more shifts (or starts) per game, equating to about 2 mins extra. i have 0 clue if 2 more extrashifts per game is sustainable over 82 gp.