Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Board Bard]

I don't believe in analytics I can shoot so many holes it in .... way too many variables.
I will give you a perfect example since I was at the Canucks game close to the action. Demelo was knocked off the puck twice by Di Giuseppe and the Canucks applied pressure for at least 2 mins with 3 close in scoring chances but Helle stopped all of them (1st period) and it was all because of Demelo. Analytics says forward line was terrible which was not the case. I see Bones mentioned it in his post game comments (Coyotes) there's 5 players on the ice.
I find eye test works the best ... I don't need fancy stats to tell me the Jets should have lost or the number one line got caved especially when the Jets won and the #1 line scored all 4 goals.
You know what stats are important in no particular order .. scheduling, refs, injuries and special teams. With the refs I don't mean bias towards the Jets ... if a ref calls a lot of penalties teams with depth get screwed. Fourth lines mins get cut and the other 3 lines don't get in a rhythm.
Andy Reid said when he makes his game plan he finds out who is reffing the game ... they have stats on all the refs.
How many penalties they call and if the call lots of holding penalties. Smart coach

So by your own admission the entire 5-skater unit is hemmed in their own end "for at least 2 minutes" yet it was all DeMelo's fault? The other Jets on the ice are absolved of all blame for the Canucks running roughshod over them for 120 seconds? They've all been schooled in Bowness's system, they've all been taught how to check and interrupt a cycle, they've all practiced it for years, some of them have even done it in games, but when they all collectively fail at it, it's all down to DeMelo? I dunno, seems like all skaters on the ice earned a share of statistical debits for allowing that to happen ad infinitum, regardless of who started it off.

On the bright side, there is a rosy future for you as coach of Connor and Scheifele.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets are likely waiting for the mix of buyers and sellers is sorted out more, which should stabilize the market in terms of supply and demand (generally the number of sellers increase, and buyers decrease).

With the Jets having some cap space, they are probably able to acquire players at a lower cost than teams that will need to bank on salary retention. That can be quite pricey.

My guess is that Chevy will definitely want another solid, depth D, probably on the physical side of the ledger. That's not a bad idea, since the Jets only depth among the "physical" D is Stanley. We've already seen that Bowness tends to like to have at least two big D in the line-up.

The other emerging need is probably a middle-6 winger with some size and speed that can play the right side. Unless Bowness decides that Ehlers can play RW in the top-6, it's probably better to have another F that can play "above" Appleton. Ideally, it would be a RW that could play alongside either Scheifele or Monahan, and make both of those lines positive. Maybe something like this?

27-55-13
81-23-RW(new) (Tarasenko? Eberle?)
62-17-22
91-7-9

36, 15, 19

44-2
5-4
54-88

LD(new), Heinola, Stanley, Capobianco

Another option might be to go after a top-line LW to move Connor down to the 2nd line. There are a couple of options that could be big swings (Guentzel, Buchnevich). Then you could try something like...

Guentzel-Scheifele-Vilardi
Connor-Monahan-Ehlers
etc.

Somehow, I don't think so. Get Guentzel and KC still plays with Scheif.

 

[Weezeric]

Somehow, I don't think so. Get Guentzel and KC still plays with Scheif.

Connor played more minutes 5v5 without Scheifele last year than with him. Why couldn’t that happen again?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well since we are drifting back into imaginary trades....

CSV
Vatrano-Monahan-Ehlers
NLA
Barron-Names-Iafallo/Perfetti

Jomo-Demelo
Dillon-Durzi
Samberg-Pionk

We've never been into anything other than imaginary trades.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Connor played more minutes 5v5 without Scheifele last year than with him. Why couldn’t that happen again?

It certainly could. But recent stubbornness seems to argue against it.

 

[gojetsgo]

It certainly could. But recent stubbornness seems to argue against it.

we just got monahan, they wanted to see connor-scheifele-vilardi together and we have won 5 of the last 6

 

[raideralex99]

This is a hallmark of critics who don't know what they're talking about. "I have this one example of analytics not perfectly lining up and that means all analytics are wrong". That's not what analytics purports to do, at all, and if that's how you perceive them you're wildly off base and have no clue what you're talking about. You've chosen a conclusion and have decided to work towards it rather than taking information and working towards a conclusion.

Your single example doesn't override empirical evidence. The fact that you think it does shows that you're trying to talk about something that you're not educated in at all.

I got lots of examples I just don't have time to write a book.
I'm just saying if you watch a game you don't need analytics ... your eyes can tell your line A does not match up well against opposing teams line B.
I'm pretty sure the coaches use their eyes and not analytics during a game. Seriously what is the purpose of analytics other than maybe contracts for players.
All I see is fans of different teams showing stats our team is better than yours because we had better analytics ... wow okay buddy but who has more points in the standings and they come back with another stat lol.

 

[Flair Hay]

Connor played more minutes 5v5 without Scheifele last year than with him. Why couldn’t that happen again?

Connor and PLD fit well together. We don't have a guy like PLD him that can create space, do the dirty work and has enough skill not to drag Connor down offensively.

May be a few chapters to this Connor on the 1st line story yet.

we just got monahan, they wanted to see connor-scheifele-vilardi together and we have won 5 of the last 6

This is factually true. Still plenty of context that is reason for concern if we are setting the bar as cup contender.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

we just got monahan, they wanted to see connor-scheifele-vilardi together and we have won 5 of the last 6

And how has CSV been playing, other than on the PP?

 

[gojetsgo]

And how has CSV been playing, other than on the PP?

we are winning, which is the ultimate goal had we not been winning they probably would have changed the lines

 

[WolfHouse]

Goaltending is winning games for us which is fine - I think the 'slump' comes down to three changes:
- Scheif's bad habits have returned and its more than just a blip
- Namestnikov probably should be our 2C - plays Bones system even if he loses face-offs
- Jets have lost speed in their bottom six which was the strength early on - Iafallo, Perfetti, Names are not energy forecheckers - and Apples is not as fast as he was at the start of the season - AJF-Gus/Toni-Barron was prob our best fourth line for Bones needs

Its still so strange that coaches get tied to some guys with 'chemistry' like our 3rd line that is not dominating anymore... but anyone Ehlers has chemistry with gets split up

Basically just hoping for shorter shifts by CSV because as long as they score, any coach will run with that

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

we are winning, which is the ultimate goal had we not been winning they probably would have changed the lines

OK, going with not meddling with a winning formula makes sense - to a point.

But looking at who we are beating and how should be cause for concern. Recently, only the PP and Helle are saving us. Go back further than the last 6 games and the PP wasn't working. We lost 5 in a row. Actually, I count 6W in the last 7. That gives us 6W, 6L in the last 12. 500 is not good enough.

 

[10Ducky10]

OK, going with not meddling with a winning formula makes sense - to a point.

But looking at who we are beating and how should be cause for concern. Recently, only the PP and Helle are saving us. Go back further than the last 6 games and the PP wasn't working. We lost 5 in a row. Actually, I count 6W in the last 7. That gives us 6W, 6L in the last 12. 500 is not good enough.

Why are you going back 12 games?

 

[WolfHouse]

Why are you going back 12 games?

If you go back 14 games, we are .500 since Connor's return.... before that we were dominating bad teams

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why are you going back 12 games?

Those 12 games seem to pretty closely align with a change in the teams's play. It includes both the current (mostly) winning streak and the preceding losing streak.

 

[gojetsgo]

Why are you going back 12 games?

yeah, it really makes no sense lol, we won 5 of our last 6 with these lines and for some reason his counter is we lost the previous 5 when we didn't use these lines and were missing our top 2 centers for half the losses...

 

[tbcwpg]

yeah, it really makes no sense lol, we won 5 of our last 6 with these lines and for some reason his counter is we lost the previous 5 when we didn't use these lines and were missing our top 2 centers...

Arbitrary cut off points for data are the best way to prove a point you've already convinced yourself is the correct one.

 

[Whileee]

I got lots of examples I just don't have time to write a book.
I'm just saying if you watch a game you don't need analytics ... your eyes can tell your line A does not match up well against opposing teams line B.
I'm pretty sure the coaches use their eyes and not analytics during a game. Seriously what is the purpose of analytics other than maybe contracts for players.
All I see is fans of different teams showing stats our team is better than yours because we had better analytics ... wow okay buddy but who has more points in the standings and they come back with another stat lol.

I agree that analytics can be overused with limited understanding, but I think it's a mistake to dismiss them outright. They can summarize performance over longer periods of time and help to recognize some of the biases that fans (and coaches) might have based on short-term perspectives and biases from big mistakes, etc.

As an example, based on player-based analytics I indicated that the Jets' line-up rivaled that of Dallas, Vegas, etc. and that the Jets looked like a strong team this year. That was actually a bit of a surprise to me, but it was then supported by at least one pre-season model (JFresh) that had the Jets as the top team in the NHL coming into the season. Did you have the same opinion of the Jets coming into this season, based on a non-statistical assessment?

My point is that statistics and analytics won't answer all questions, but they can help us to look more closely at what we are seeing and try to understand why results might not be the same as we expected.

 

[10Ducky10]

Those 12 games seem to pretty closely align with a change in the teams's play. It includes both the current (mostly) winning streak and the preceding losing streak.

Wasn't there 9 days off in the middle of that streak?

 

[WolfHouse]

Wasn't there 9 days off in the middle of that streak?

I think a fair break down of this season is prob using the Scheif injury as a benchmark (Jan 11) - that changed a lot of momentum...
Before that I'd make a cutoff at Nov 11 between the early season Jets and the team that was clicking on Bones system

 

[10Ducky10]

If you go back 14 games, we are .500 since Connor's return.... before that we were dominating bad teams

We won 9 of the last 12 games before KC was hurt?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wasn't there 9 days off in the middle of that streak?

Yeah, there were. So even harder to excuse.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I agree that analytics can be overused with limited understanding, but I think it's a mistake to dismiss them outright. They can summarize performance over longer periods of time and help to recognize some of the biases that fans (and coaches) might have based on short-term perspectives and biases from big mistakes, etc.

As an example, based on player-based analytics I indicated that the Jets' line-up rivaled that of Dallas, Vegas, etc. and that the Jets looked like a strong team this year. That was actually a bit of a surprise to me, but it was then supported by at least one pre-season model (JFresh) that had the Jets as the top team in the NHL coming into the season. Did you have the same opinion of the Jets coming into this season, based on a non-statistical assessment?

My point is that statistics and analytics won't answer all questions, but they can help us to look more closely at what we are seeing and try to understand why results might not be the same as we expected.

The bolded is the key, IMO. There are plenty of points where the analytics and eye-test converge for me, and support an argument for doing what we’re doing, or changing things up.

During that long terrific stretch of team-deep defensive play prIor to the break the eyetest and numbers were absolutely in sync. And many here have watched the recent patch of games and wondered what was going on as we failed to convert at 5v5 and spent shifts hemmed into our zone. Again, numbers and eyetest agree.

We hear 100x each team talking points about details, playing the right way and so on. Unsurprising that stats and eyetest alike are able to capture the sum of those details and make a case for being concerned or just being happy to win in the dog days of Feb or some combination of those.

Of course the value of analytics trawling without watching the games is suspect. But how many fans do that? And as @garret9 has often noted, good analytics involves watching the games, minutely, and I find that my watching is made richer by knowing a bit more about what’s happening offscreen, as it were, especially since I’m a ocean and several provinces away from being able to see them live.

 

[WolfHouse]

Yeah, there were. So even harder to excuse.

I think the cutoff is actually before the Scheif injury... would be interesting to see which games we really stopped playing Bones' system - I think it was back in that winning streak actually

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the cutoff is actually before the Scheif injury... would be interesting to see which games we really stopped playing Bones' system - I think it was back in that winning streak actually

Yeah by a couple of games I think, but I can't put my finger on it. Probably because it didn't happen in an instant.