All Purpose Morgan Rielly Discussion

[Ryan Michaels]

Isolated 5x5 impact? Smells like a bullshit stat to me. His on ice 5x5 gf% has been positive for the last 3 years and that was with meh partners, I am now to believe his actual impact was a net negative?
What utter horseshit.

This obsession with Rielly here is unbelievably dumb. The leafs defense has actually played pretty well this year. For those who dont remember how bad the defense was last year when Rielly was hurt, look it up.

Every offensive defenseman is going to get noticed out there. He has as many points as Nylander and more than most of the other forwards. Just thinking this is a concern when he faces the toughest defensive minutes on the team is goal seeking crap supportive evidence.

Focus on the true anchors of the team instead of biting off more than you can chew from a subject matter perspective.

Just because you're angry doesn't mean you're right. Isolated 5x5 defensive impact smells like a bullshit stat to you but this is fine?

How much longer are you "master analysts" going to pretend you know what the f*** you are talking about?

Leafs game score metric developed by Dom Luszczyszyn

View attachment 396961

Are you for or against advanced stats? Don't answer, you're obviously fitting them to your agenda. Also, and this is important, Dom's metric is for overall impact, the one that "smells like bullshit" is for defensive impact only. The fact that Rielly has a positive overall impact but a negative defensive impact isn't the contradiction you think it is.

You haven't submitted an actual defense of Rielly's defensive play you've just rambled on about "bullshit," "horseshit," "not knowing what the f*** you're talking about," and "biting of more than you can chew." Take a deep breath, have a Snickers, try and make a real point or leave.

Rielly is a net positive but a defensive negative, it is very simple.

 

[Notsince67]

Just because you're angry doesn't mean you're right. Isolated 5x5 defensive impact smells like a bullshit stat to you but this is fine?



Are you for or against advanced stats? Don't answer, you're obviously fitting them to your agenda. Also, and this is important, Dom's metric is for overall impact, the one that "smells like bullshit" is for defensive impact only. The fact that Rielly has a positive overall impact but a negative defensive impact isn't the contradiction you think it is.

You haven't submitted an actual defense of Rielly's defensive play you've just rambled on about "bullshit," "horseshit," "not knowing what the f*** you're talking about," and "biting of more than you can chew." Take a deep breath, have a Snickers, try and make a real point or leave.

Rielly is a net positive but a defensive negative, it is very simple.

I am actually very well versed in them. Maybe you should ask for more information before going off like a fool.
I don't use anything I don't understand.
If you want to read up...here you go. If you have questions, ask politely and I might answer.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score | Hockey Graphs (hockey-graphs.com)

And perhaps you can explain to me how isolated impact works because the r-squared on on-ice impact to goals for and against already isnt great

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I am actually very well versed in them. Maybe you should ask for more information before going off like a fool.
I don't use anything I don't understand.
If you want to read up...here you go. If you have questions, ask politely and I might answer.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score | Hockey Graphs (hockey-graphs.com)

And perhaps you can explain to me how isolated impact works because the r-squared on on-ice impact to goals for and against already isnt great

Yeah you don't deserve the respect of politeness as you make abundantly clear with every raging post, you're a caricature of a crappy Leaf fan. Anyway you understand the stats you're just being disingenuous? Am I incorrect that game score is for overall impact and thus is a poor rebuttal to a discussion about Morgan Rielly's defensive deficiencies and not his overall game? Or are you just brushing over that?

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I am actually very well versed in them. Maybe you should ask for more information before going off like a fool.
I don't use anything I don't understand.
If you want to read up...here you go. If you have questions, ask politely and I might answer.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score | Hockey Graphs (hockey-graphs.com)

And perhaps you can explain to me how isolated impact works because the r-squared on on-ice impact to goals for and against already isnt great

And by the way before you got so high and mighty you maybe should have read that article you linked, where it says game score is a poor measurement of defensive ability. Laughable.

 

[Notsince67]

And by the way before you got so high and mighty you maybe should have read that article you linked, where it says game score is a poor measurement of defensive ability. Laughable.

Game impact refuting that he played poorly and any % would be a comparator of shots for and against . You do understand GF% and xgf% right?
Answer the question. How does isolated impact work? Don't worry about complexity. I have a long background in stats and data science.
Just trying to understand which shots against and for are excluded to hone into such a magical number such as isolated impact?

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Game impact refuting that he played poorly and any % would be a comparator of shots for and against . You do understand GF% and xgf% right?

That still means he has a positive overall impact not a positive defensive impact, the end. I don't see many saying Rielly is a bad player, he's a bad defensive player you aren't even attempting to refute that.

Answer the question. How does isolated impact work? Don't worry about complexity. I have a long background in stats and data science.
Just trying to understand which shots against and for are excluded to hone into such a magical number such as isolated impact?

I'm obviously not wasting my time doing that. You haven't presented a single indicator Rielly is a good defensive player, you haven't even yet acknowledged that you think Rielly is a good defensive player, you aren't discussing the topic and you're just trying to waste my time. Is Rielly a good player overall? Yes. Is he a bad defensive player? Also yes.

Do you think Rielly is a good defensive player? Is that even your point or are you just raging for the sake of it? Because you haven't even tried to defend his defensive play you're just saying he's a net positive which isn't what I, or the posters you replied to previously, are arguing.

 

[Notsince67]

That still means he has a positive overall impact not a positive defensive impact, the end. I don't see many saying Rielly is a bad player, he's a bad defensive player you aren't even attempting to refute that.



I'm obviously not wasting my time doing that. You haven't presented a single indicator Rielly is a good defensive player, you haven't even yet acknowledged that you think Rielly is a good defensive player, you aren't discussing the topic and you're just trying to waste my time. Is Rielly a good player overall? Yes. Is he a bad defensive player? Also yes.

Do you think Rielly is a good defensive player? Is that even your point or are you just raging for the sake of it? Because you haven't even tried to defend his defensive play you're just saying he's a net positive which isn't what I, or the posters you replied to previously, are arguing.

I said the stat smells like bullshit and it is. There is no getting away from it.

Rielly has been accepted as a top tier defenseman for quite a long time. Cherry picking the bad while excluding the good does zero in assessing what he brings strategically as a defenseman, Throwing up a bullshit metric (or defending it) to push a point is cringeworthy. The comment that started this implied he was the worse defenseman in that game. He wasnt even close. Bogosian, Holl and Muzzin were definitely worse. That doesnt even begin to deal with QoC over all the minutes he plays. You pull him out and every dman on the team slotted into his minutes would drown on most days.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I said the stat smells like bullshit and it is. There is no getting away from it.

Okay? You said a stat smelled like bullshit and there's no getting away from... your opinion? That's fine I guess, not very compelling in any way.

Rielly has been accepted as a top tier defenseman for quite a long time. Cherry picking the bad while excluding the good does zero in assessing what he brings strategically as a defenseman, Throwing up a bullshit metric (or defending it) to push a point is cringeworthy.

AGAIN I've acknowledged Rielly as a net positive ad nauseum, don't really see why we can't acknowledge his shortcomings? You still have not said he is good defensively, and I believe you know he isn't. And you're welcome to question the validity of defensive metrics, I think it's fair to say they have their shortcomings, but your preferred game impact metric was self-confessed to be a poor measurement of defensive play...which I guess we'll say was cringe of you by your definition, insofar as citing a metric can be cringe(which it can't it's just more of your needlessly aggressive schtick). And again, you know he is bad defensively, that's all we're saying don't know what we're even doing here.

Anyway I think I'm done with whatever this is so I hope your day gets better. Your angry negativity towards random internet posters seems pretty miserable.

 

[ottomaddox]

I'm saying what I said, it's that simple, I'm not saying what you decided you wanted me to be saying.

I've never supported moving Morgan Rielly precisely because we can't just replace him with a number 1 D magically. And I am not suddenly negative on him now, I am realistic about his shortcomings as a player, that's it, I don't know why you need to try and put me into some position I am not advocating for. Why are people so negative on Rielly now? Because he's been given a free ride for years and also there is no Gardiner/Barrie to take the brunt of defensive criticism. And the d partner excuse is finally gone, he is now playing with Brodie who played with Giordano when he won the Norris. Just out of excuses.

I never liked the D partner excuse. I thought Ron Hainsey did pretty good when he was here.

 

[ottomaddox]

I am not really sure what you are saying. What metric are you using to call him a #1D? His performance doesn't warrant it any more than it warrants calling Holl or Brodie our #1D.

A 1D logs the most minutes and QB's the PP. If Rielly doesn't do that then I was lied to by statisticians all these years. What defines a #1 then? The opposite?

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I never liked the D partner excuse. I thought Ron Hainsey did pretty good when he was here.

Yeah I find it pretty silly. I know Rielly hasn't been blessed with great partners during his time here but people were calling him a Norris level dman, those guys don't care who they play with. Hedman played with Jan Rutta/Kevin Shattenkirk/Zack Bogosian last season and in the playoffs. The super d pairing doesn't really exist and Hedman's list there isn't really any worse than Rielly's worst and Hedman did that while winning a Conn Smythe.

Obviously it's not fair to compare Rielly to Hedman but top end dmen usually don't need high end partners.

 

[stickty111]

As I mentioned, Rielly got benched when we took the lead.
Here were the ice times after taking the lead.

Holl- 5:12
Muzzin: 5:36
Bogosian: 3:16
Rielly: 0:42(1 shift)
Brodie: 2:47
Dermott: 1:02

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[Stephen]

Yeah I find it pretty silly. I know Rielly hasn't been blessed with great partners during his time here but people were calling him a Norris level dman, those guys don't care who they play with. Hedman played with Jan Rutta/Kevin Shattenkirk/Zack Bogosian last season and in the playoffs. The super d pairing doesn't really exist and Hedman's list there isn't really any worse than Rielly's worst and Hedman did that while winning a Conn Smythe.

Obviously it's not fair to compare Rielly to Hedman but top end dmen usually don't need high end partners.

The issue with Rielly is since his massive 2019 season his biggest strength (offense) took a big step back and his biggest weakness (no chill on defense) didn't improve.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Obviously it's not fair to compare Rielly to Hedman but top end dmen usually don't need high end partners.

They usually do actually. Keith had Seabrook. Josi has Ellis. Burns had Vlasic. Doughty had Muzzin. Giordano had Brodie (which is what I hope happens with Rielly once they become familiar with each other), Jones and Werenski... And a lot of these guys are considered the "premier" defensemen in the league right now.

It's pretty much just Hedman and Karlsson who did not really have a lot, and Hedman at least all of the years that Tampa had success they had a bunch of other good defensemen around him. Chabot in Ottawa has had it tough too.

Even then, Rielly's still had it the worst compared to most. Not only was he pretty much the only high end defenseman the Leafs had until Muzzin showed up, but a 37 year old Hainsey is the best partner he's ever had. Even Karlsson had a younger version of Hainsey in Methot as his partner through his Ottawa days.

What's interesting is the same things that are plaguing Tavares right now (not converting at ES and turnovers) are also plaguing Rielly, but also like Tavares, he is playing his best defensive hockey right now. So he is doing better with Brodie, and they will both do even better once they figure out their dynamic.

EDIT: One other comparison between Rielly and Tavares is that their talented partners (Brodie and Nylander) are also having a bit of a rough stretch themselves. So once they get those dynamics worked out, imagine how lethal the Leafs are going to be. They are still highly productive players right now and they are not even coming close to playing their best hockey.

 

[Stephen]

I wonder if the fact that Rielly will be a UFA at the exact same time as Seth Jones will factor into the Leafs long term thinking at all? Would bea true franchise altering move, and Jones will likely make more money but could they let one go and bring in the other? The Leafs will also have cost controlled D in Sandin and Liljegren likely breaking through so they could pay Jones a little more and average down the cost. The Kessel retention will also be off the books by then so there's little more money to throw around.

 

[Rondo Hatton]

Rielly needs to pick it up the rest of this year. He's out of excuses, his defensive partner is fine, his health is fine and the team is good. Needs to be smarter and we need a clear #1 D-man, if he ain't it, need to free up the dollars to get one. I'm rooting for him but if the results aren't there by the time this season is done, I wish the team moves on.

 

[Puckstuff]

Rielly needs to pick it up the rest of this year. He's out of excuses, his defensive partner is fine, his health is fine and the team is good. Needs to be smarter and we need a clear #1 D-man, if he ain't it, need to free up the dollars to get one. I'm rooting for him but if the results aren't there by the time this season is done, I wish the team moves on.

Exactly because Brodie is the perfect partner for a #1 D. Muzzin is perfect as a #2-3. Holl has developed into a legit top 4 guy. If someone has to go in the top 4, it's Rielly. He's clearly the outlier here. Would love Josi or Jones

 

[LeafsNation75]

I wonder if the fact that Rielly will be a UFA at the exact same time as Seth Jones will factor into the Leafs long term thinking at all? Would bea true franchise altering move, and Jones will likely make more money but could they let one go and bring in the other? The Leafs will also have cost controlled D in Sandin and Liljegren likely breaking through so they could pay Jones a little more and average down the cost. The Kessel retention will also be off the books by then so there's little more money to throw around.

Won't there still be a flat salary cap after the 2021-22 Season?

 

[Budz]

What team is looking for LD. 44 has to go.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Here is my question/thought regarding Rielly and to a lesser degree Andersen.

They both represent a very important position/role for this team. #1D and #1G.

They've both been here for a long time. They have had their ups and downs, but have shown success.

So my thought is, is the refusal to acknowledge his poor play due to fear of life without him? Like who will be our #1D if he's gone? Same goes for Andersen, though with him it looks like most of this board is in agreement that he has declined and it is time for a change.

But ya, Rielly going is a scary thought because who will replace him? We have had a poor defence for a long time and he's been the top guy, a former top 5 pick and a good pro. Easy to endear himself to the fan base, easy to fear his potential lack of replacement.

But man, he has not looked right since 2018-2019. Something is absolutely off whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

 

[Critical13]

We looked quite good once we sheltered him in the 3rd period.

 

[BM14]

It's like all of his virtue has been sucked out of him..

 

[OB34KNH]

Rielly was never good defensively.
His offense has taken a step back (regardless of his point-totals).

What will Rielly's contract be?
About 7-8 Million/Year.

Should we pay that?
No.

He's likely on the decline, paying him upwards of 7-8 million isn't going to be good for us.
Spend money on cheaper, defensive-positive D-man.

Brodie, Holl, Muzzin, Sandin, (+UFA Rielly replacement) is a good core for now

Sandin is the key here. If he can make it to the show next year, it'll be huge for us.
He needs to put on 20 lbs. Sandin isn't a rush type D-man, which will actually be better for us (far less of a defensive liability) --- he's more of a QB D (offensively). He's very good at QBing the PP, and, maintaining puck possession in the cycle.

 

[Fogelhund]