All Purpose Mitch Marner Talk II

[zeke]

Marner Pace: 49gls, 98pts, +16

With fancy stats of 53.4xgf%.

Tough crowd in here.

 

[Farsailor]

Marner Pace: 49gls, 98pts, +16

With fancy stats of 53.4xgf%.

Tough crowd in here.

Tbh tho one deflection from an opponent, one open goal and one empty net
But I belive he will step up tonight in Matthews absence. Marner is overpaid right now, that is ppls problem. But we will have to wait before we judge him and his contract..

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No. Simply because Marner does have trade value. Marner made well near HALF of his total 6 year contract value 8 months after signing his contract (all for NO aav relief... great job Dubas). I know that sounds completely and utterly impossible and bewildering. But it's actually true.

The good news is that heavily increases his trade value, especially in the cash capped covid world. If Marner were traded after this season (after July 1st) then Marner's "real money" aav is 6.25x4 years. He'd have reasonable trade value.

Of course, in the perfect world, we would have signed Marner to a fair contract, and would have no need to trade away a young star. But Shanahan hired a rookie gm who self admitted is "learning as he goes". There is a price to pay for that.

Very well stated ... no likes likes to hear da truth but it must be noted

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner is also front-loaded to the cba's limits (Rantanen isn't) and paid in signing bonuses to the cba's limit (Rantanen isn't).

Rantanen's contract is front-loaded, and signing bonuses are mutually beneficial for Toronto, and largely used to counter the tax discrepancy. The only inconsistency in these discussions is from you.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner Pace: 49gls, 98pts, +16

With fancy stats of 53.4xgf%.

Tough crowd in here.

Curious what was Barzals stats in his 85 point first season? I dont know the fancy stats so I'm asking honestly. He puts up less points now under Trotz but the team is much better as a result of team play. Trotz even benched him occasionally I'm the first season (I believe it was the first).

My thoughts are he makes alot of high risk individualist passes and play attempts that good team first coaches would try to eliminate over smart methodical plays that will increase zone time and the cycle and board battles for himself and teammates. Leafs to me do not play a playoff style during the season, but then struggle when playoff style is forced on them (limited space, board battles, increased checking).

I'd like to see less dazzle attempts and more waiting for a mistake and pounce combined with great defense. However, we are limiting the opposing teams shots and I have only caught a few periods of hockey this far... so I may be right.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Curious what was Barzals stats in his 85 point first season? I dont know the fancy stats so I'm asking honestly. He puts up less points now under Trotz but the team is much better as a result of team play. Trotz even benched him occasionally I'm the first season (I believe it was the first).

My thoughts are he makes alot of high risk individualist passes and play attempts that good team first coaches would try to eliminate over smart methodical plays that will increase zone time and the cycle and board battles for himself and teammates. Leafs to me do not play a playoff style during the season, but then struggle when playoff style is forced on them (limited space, board battles, increased checking).

I'd like to see less dazzle attempts and more waiting for a mistake and pounce combined with great defense. However, we are limiting the opposing teams shots and I have only caught a few periods of hockey this far... so I may be right.

I thought the reason for Barzal's 85 points in his rookie season was playing behind John Tavares and that helped his offensive play and the reason he had all those points.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner Pace: 49gls, 98pts, +16

With fancy stats of 53.4xgf%.

Tough crowd in here.

What the numbers do not tell is that he has had 2 excellent games and three poor games. 49 goals pace means nothing. He'd be lucky to get 49 in two full 82 game seasons. Let's see, muffin shot by Murray, 2 empty netters vs Helley. Love to see him keep up that pace but it is not happenning.

 

[Antropovsky]

I thought the reason for Barzal's 85 points in his rookie season was playing behind John Tavares and that helped his offensive play and the reason he had all those points.

I know your being sarcastic but weight and trotz coaching apparently was mirror opposites. Seems like weights philosophy was "play to your God given talents"

 

[LeafsNation75]

What the numbers do not tell is that he has had 2 excellent games and three poor games. 49 goals pace means nothing. He'd be lucky to get 49 in two full 82 game seasons. Let's see, muffin shot by Murray, 2 empty netters vs Helley. Love to see him keep up that pace but it is not happenning.

I agree Marner needs to work on his shot, however I won't complain about it when the puck goes in the net for him like when he scored that goal against Ottawa. So that muffin shot that beat Murray was also deflected and something like that happens a lot.

 

[ToneDog]

I agree Marner needs to work on his shot, however I won't complain about it when the puck goes in the net for him like when he scored that goal against Ottawa. So that muffin shot that beat Murray was also deflected and something like that happens a lot.

My point is how many muffin shots and empty netters is he going to get? Hell one poster posted Willie was on pace to score 112 during the Habs game. He has zero in the last 4 and is down to a 33 goal pace.

 

[LeafsNation75]

My point is how many muffin shots and empty netters is he going to get? Hell one poster posted Willie was on pace to score 112 during the Habs game. He has zero in the last 4 and is down to a 33 goal pace.

I see his 1st goal this season not as a muffin shot, it only looks like that because of how it got deflected. At least he shot the puck and that's something we all agree he needs to do more of.

 

[Notsince67]

I know your being sarcastic but weight and trotz coaching apparently was mirror opposites. Seems like weights philosophy was "play to your God given talents"

Unless its defense

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Rantanen's contract is front-loaded, and signing bonuses are mutually beneficial for Toronto, and largely used to counter the tax discrepancy. The only inconsistency in these discussions is from you.

Marner is significantly more front loaded. Marner received 47% of his contract in the first 8 months of his 6 year contract. Rantanen received 43% of his contract over the first 2 years of his contract.

And signing bonuses is something that every player desperately wants. Especially when (at time of signing) there was a new cba to negotiate and possible strikes/lockouts. If signing bonuses were (lol) "mutually beneficial", then literally EVERY PLAYER would be paid entirely in signing bonuses. But they aren't. It's outrageous to even suggest it. Being that every player DESPERATELY wants them, and Toronto is one of the few teams that can/will give them, then that is LEVERAGE that Toronto has at the negotiating table. To squander that advantage and get no aav reduction is the result of a rookie gm who self admittedly is "learning as he goes".

 

[Gary Nylund]

Who is the second making much less in addition to Rielly? I listed Matthews, Rielly and Tavares - no?

Oops sorry, you're right then, just Rielly. For some reason I thought you said Nylander instead of Tavares and was too lazy to go back and check, my bad.

 

[Gallagbi]

Marner is significantly more front loaded. Marner received 47% of his contract in the first 8 months of his 6 year contract. Rantanen received 43% of his contract over the first 2 years of his contract.

And signing bonuses is something that every player desperately wants. Especially when (at time of signing) there was a new cba to negotiate and possible strikes/lockouts. If signing bonuses were (lol) "mutually beneficial", then literally EVERY PLAYER would be paid entirely in signing bonuses. But they aren't. It's outrageous to even suggest it. Being that every player DESPERATELY wants them, and Toronto is one of the few teams that can/will give them, then that is LEVERAGE that Toronto has at the negotiating table. To squander that advantage and get no aav reduction is the result of a rookie gm who self admittedly is "learning as he goes".

Worth noting he said mutually beneficial for TORONTO. And we have seen how that's benefitted them on moving players

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Worth noting he said mutually beneficial for TORONTO. And we have seen how that's benefitted them on moving players

That's a silly argument for three reasons.

1. Players desperately want signing bonuses. Toronto being able to give them is leverage at the negotiation table. The end.

2. I have a feeling the actual board of directors doesn't see it as "beneficial". I'm sure they're not exactly ecstatic to be potentially pay a player almost 50% of their 6 year contract 8 months in... only to trade them after those 8 months. Would they even allow it?

3. Players like Marner weren't signed with the end goal to be traded. You really think that's the goal in front loading Matthews/Marner/Tavares? To front load them with signing bonuses, and then trade them? It's an outrageous argument. Clearly the goal is to keep these players. So you give them the perks necessary (signing bonuses, front loading, etc.) in order to get their aav down so you don't have to trade them. We're only discussing trading Marner due to how outrageously high his aav is in relation to comparable players. All the product of a rookie gm who is self admittedly "learning as he goes".

 

[zeke]

P.s. Marner is 1pt behind the NHL scoring leaders

 

[Gallagbi]

That's a silly argument for three reasons.

1. Players desperately want signing bonuses. Toronto being able to give them is leverage at the negotiation table. The end.

2. I have a feeling the actual board of directors doesn't see it as "beneficial". I'm sure they're not exactly ecstatic to be potentially pay a player almost 50% of their 6 year contract 8 months in... only to trade them after those 8 months. Would they even allow it?

3. Players like Marner weren't signed with the end goal to be traded. You really think that's the goal in front loading Matthews/Marner/Tavares? To front load them with signing bonuses, and then trade them? It's an outrageous argument. Clearly the goal is to keep these players. So you give them the perks necessary (signing bonuses, front loading, etc.) in order to get their aav down so you don't have to trade them. We're only discussing trading Marner due to how outrageously high his aav is in relation to comparable players. All the product of a rookie gm who is self admittedly "learning as he goes".

I don't think anyone is signed with the hope of trading them, but it builds in a flexibility that we've seen benefit the team.

It gives the team some advantages at the negotiation table, especially when faced with some tax concerns compared to other markets, but also benefits the teams flexibility.

Certainly comes at a cost, which the BOD has largely been willing to accept.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner Pace: 49gls, 98pts, +16

With fancy stats of 53.4xgf%.

Tough crowd in here.

Remeber those numbers you posted the other day that showed Matthews and McDavid to be roughly on the same level? I can't remember the thread and the numbers were from behind some paywall so I can't see them but IIRC, Marner was way below Matthews. I could be wrong but I think Matthews was over 4.5 and Marner was around 3.5 which would indicate a rather large gap between the two.

Anyhow, just curious. I believe you said those were the numbers that you thought were currently the best for player assessment (there were 2 different sets correct?).

Anyhow, my point is that if those are the best numbers to use, why aren't you using them. These numbers showing "pace" after 5 games are a joke because of the small sample size and you know this perfectly well.

I'd also be curious as to this - if these numbers show that Matthews is on the same level as McDavid that's awesome. What do they say about Marner though? He's obviously not a top 5 player in the league but is he a top 10 forward? I'm gonna guess not but is he even top 20 according to those numbers that you approve of?

 

[zeke]

Remeber those numbers you posted the other day that showed Matthews and McDavid to be roughly on the same level? I can't remember the thread and the numbers were from behind some paywall so I can't see them but IIRC, Marner was way below Matthews. I could be wrong but I think Matthews was over 4.5 and Marner was around 3.5 which would indicate a rather large gap between the two.

Anyhow, just curious. I believe you said those were the numbers that you thought were currently the best for player assessment (there were 2 different sets correct?).

Anyhow, my point is that if those are the best numbers to use, why aren't you using them. These numbers showing "pace" after 5 games are a joke because of the small sample size and you know this perfectly well.

I'd also be curious as to this - if these numbers show that Matthews is on the same level as McDavid that's awesome. What do they say about Marner though? He's obviously not a top 5 player in the league but is he a top 10 forward? I'm gonna guess not but is he even top 20 according to those numbers that you approve of?

Well people (especially the negative ones here) hate the fancy stats so I like to beat them over the head with the simpler ones sometimes too.


But since you asked.....here's the top 20 forwards in the league by projected GSVA:

 

[NinjaKick]

i think marners been passing up alot of shots... i wanna see him get a little more selfish and get some shots off quick... been holding the puck too much for that perfect pass imo... dont want him to become predictable... gotta mix it up a little bit


end rant/

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well people (especially the negative ones here) hate the fancy stats so I like to beat them over the head with the simpler ones sometimes too.


But since you asked.....here's the top 20 forwards in the league by projected GSVA:

View attachment 387087

TY sir. That's very interesting, I appreciate it. So according to this, Marner's just barely out of the top 10. Interesting to look at for sure, I wonder how accurate these numbers are. I don't watch enough of other teams to really have a strong opinion but Pasternak being ahead of MacKinnon (just barely but still ...) and being THAT FAR ahead of Bergeron is probably the biggest surprise. Seeing Guentzel that high is maybe the next biggest surprise but that could be fair for all I know ... interesting!

As I suspected, these numbers do seem to support the view that Marner is overpaid. Or at any rate, the chances of him outperforming his contract are near zero, the best I can hope for is that ends up being not too big an overpayment.

Thanks again!

 

[Wiseguys]

Marner Pace: 49gls, 98pts, +16

With fancy stats of 53.4xgf%.

Tough crowd in here.

The only time he is able to score goals are open net in the crease goals or empty net goals. Everytime there's an empty net Marner is usually on the ice. Cheap way to get goals for Dubas to justify his over paid salary.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The only time he is able to score goals are open net in the crease goals or empty net goals. Everytime there's an empty net Marner is usually on the ice. Cheap way to get goals for Dubas to justify his over paid salary.

Last season I seem to remember Zach Hyman scoring a lot more empty net goals than Marner.

 

[BAM]

The only time he is able to score goals are open net in the crease goals or empty net goals. Everytime there's an empty net Marner is usually on the ice. Cheap way to get goals for Dubas to justify his over paid salary.

A simple youtube search could find you tons of goals Marner scoring with goalies in net. Why even bother...