Player Discussion All Purpose Goaltending Thread

[Fjordy]

-Regarding Helle, we’re doing this in a vacuum. We have no idea what Winnipeg wants. You say you’d offer a 1st plus. Maybe the Jets only want a deal that either includes a solid replacement goalie (i.e. Vanacek) or “win-now” pieces in general.

-Regarding Boston, again we’re hypothesizing as posters what would be required. Maybe Boston wants to keep a two headed monster in net, which along with a strong defense group, will keep them in the playoffs even without Bergeron or Krejci.

-I wouldn’t mind Markstrom myself, but I doubt Adams is looking to add that type of salary. He also carries a NTC of some sort and I doubt he’s looking to come to Buffalo. Vladar just doesn’t seem like that much of an improvement on what we already have in Luukonen/Comrie.

-I get your opinion on Gibson, I think the term would mitigate the desire to trade for him. Also don’t think he’d be a great fit with “the vibes”. Also wondering how much Anaheim is willing to retain bc full price for that long is almost negative value but I doubt Anaheim would accept that.

-I personally doubt Samsonov is available,
Particularly in the division. And if he did get dealt to us, Adams would probably have to overpay and he’s shown he’s unwilling to do that.

-DeSmith’s #’s certainly look better, but those can also be attributed to who you’re playing in front of. Our defense last year had a lot of nights where they were basically an open sieve. I also don’t think DeSmith is of a high enough caliber to really make a difference between Luukonen/Comrie. Similar to Vladar

Basically, I estimated the cost, and did not make a specific offer.

Boston won't make the playoffs without Bergeron and Krejci, imo, they need someone to replace them.

I don't see a problem with Markstrom's salary, we'll have a ton of cap space and a lot of ELС players. Just count. Players stopped adding Buffalo to their NTC list, there was information recently.

If Adams didn't like the Gibson, he wouldn't have tried to get it a year ago. I think they check the information well. They know more than us.

Pittsburgh didn't have a good defense last season specifically. Dumoulin fell off a cliff, Letang had health problems, Petry was average. DeSmith is an experienced and mostly stable backup.

 

[Zman5778]

He’s available, we have the assets and cap space.

Is he available? The last credible thing we've heard out of Winnipeg is that Chevy is planning on going into the season with Helle has his goalie

Where the Jets stand after Day 1 of free agency — and no trades

The Jets made a few signings on July 1 but the day's biggest news was still about Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele.

theathletic.com

Let’s start with what we know: Cheveldayoff told me at a news conference in Nashville that “Helly and Scheif are big parts of our franchise.” He acknowledged that trade discussions do occur but said, “Our focus is they’re Winnipeg Jets and we’re looking forward to moving forward with them.”

He doubled down on that idea, offering this record-scratch moment when discussing Winnipeg’s signings on Saturday.

“The opportunity to come back and work with Hellebuyck was something that appealed to LB as well. I think they’ll be a good tandem,” Cheveldayoff said of Brossoit.

Cheveldayoff signalled two things here: First, that Hellebuyck is coming back, and second, that Brossoit will be looking for a bigger share of the goaltending workload than he got in his last stint with the Jets. Brossoit’s contract is for one year at $1.75 million, making him an extremely affordable piece of Winnipeg’s newest tandem. Delia, who signed a one-way contract for one year at $775,000, is slated to be Winnipeg’s third goaltender (or, more likely: Manitoba’s starter after passing through waivers).

Cheveldayoff referred to the idea of a Hellebuyck/Brossoit tandem multiple times. He also repeated the notion that he’s in contact with Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s camps and is open to signing them to extensions while acknowledging that he’s listening to offers on both players, too.

“You have to (listen) as a general manager. That’s your job,” he said Saturday. “I think (trading them) would create big holes in our organization.”

 

[TehDoak]

Helle is great at medium and low danger chances. Buffalo’s problem is high danger chances.

Also Buffalo wasn’t bottom 2. Comrie was one of the worst goalies with that many starts. Anderson and UPL were middle of the pack.

Anderson was actually top 10 against HDSC.

Uhh, UPL was rated 65th in GSAA. Anderson was 31st. Comrie was 59th.

Our goalies were last year:

Shit
Shitty
and
Shittiest.

The fact that they are taking Shitty and Shittiest and adding a 21 year old to the mix is absolutely mind boggling.

 

[Ace]

Uhh, UPL was rated 65th in GSAA. Anderson was 31st. Comrie was 59th.

Our goalies were last year:

Shit
Shitty
and
Shittiest.

The fact that they are taking Shitty and Shittiest and adding a 21 year old to the mix is absolutely mind boggling.

Well, Doing things is hard…or something. We’ve been watching Adams for 4 offseasons now. Doing things is basically impossible for him.

 

[jc17]

Uhh, UPL was rated 65th in GSAA. Anderson was 31st. Comrie was 59th.

Our goalies were last year:

Shit
Shitty
and
Shittiest.

The fact that they are taking Shitty and Shittiest and adding a 21 year old to the mix is absolutely mind boggling.

GSAA might be the most useless stat. Comrie led the league last year

 

[RefsIdeas]

GSAA might be the most useless stat. Comrie led the league last year

First thing I did after I read this was check their WAR to see if it looked any better for them. It did not.

 

[TehDoak]

GSAA might be the most useless stat. Comrie led the league last year

Yeah but these stats confirm my biases, so this year they are AWESOME.

 

[Ace]

First thing I did after I read this was check their WAR to see if it looked any better for them. It did not.

View attachment 729089

The Kings paid to get rid of the guy sandwiched between the goalies we’re bringing back to support a 21 year old in year 13 of a playoff drought.

Not a real organization.

 

[Irie]

I’ve never seen so many people talk themselves out of getting a consensus top 5 goalie (who probably should have been a hart nominee at least once) when we’ve been bottom 2 in goaltending the last 2 seasons.

He’s available, we have the assets and cap space. This should be an all time no brainer.

Instead let’s go with a 21 year old, a 24 year old who wasn’t a good AHL goalie, and the guy who has passed thru waivers multiple times.

2021-22 Winnipeg Jets:

Eric Comrie .920%
Connor Helebuyck .910%

You ever watch Helebuyck in loose checking international play? He's not super great. Sabres play a loose defensive game. I personally have a lot of doubts about how good Helebuyck may perform behind this Sabres D. I definitely feel it would be unwise to give up a lot of assets for him. I also heavily doubt he would re-sign in Buffalo. This is not a cup or bust year, so why waste a ton of assets for a goalie that may not be great and may only be here one season?

If you are talking about ponying up a mint for Saros, I could get behind that. But Helebuyck? Nah, rather fix the D and see what they have with this current trio.

 

[Fjordy]

Eric Comrie .920%
Connor Helebuyck .910%

Comrie played 19 games that season, almost half of those games poorly or below average. That is about 10 good games in a season. A very small sample to consider him a good goaltender or even an NHL goaltender. Prior to the 21-22 season, he only played nine NHL games in 5 seasons with different teams, averaging very bad GAA and SV%.

I don't need to imagine who Hellebuyck is, one of the best and most stable goaltenders in the NHL in recent years, who receives a lot of work every year.

 

[dkollidas]

Basically, I estimated the cost, and did not make a specific offer.

Boston won't make the playoffs without Bergeron and Krejci, imo, they need someone to replace them.

I don't see a problem with Markstrom's salary, we'll have a ton of cap space and a lot of ELС players. Just count. Players stopped adding Buffalo to their NTC list, there was information recently.

If Adams didn't like the Gibson, he wouldn't have tried to get it a year ago. I think they check the information well. They know more than us.

Pittsburgh didn't have a good defense last season specifically. Dumoulin fell off a cliff, Letang had health problems, Petry was average. DeSmith is an experienced and mostly stable backup.

-I understand you’re estimating cost, but people are complaining Adams isn’t making a move for Helle but Winnipeg might not want our assets.

-That’s your opinion on Boston. I don’t think they’re going into this season thinking they’re going to miss the playoffs. Will they be expecting a drop in play and points, sure. But I don’t think that group is signing guys veterans on short term cheap deals like JVR and thinking they’ll miss the playoffs.

-and yes we have “a ton” of cap space right now. But add roughly $15M-$18M depending on Dahlin and Power’s extensions, plus those of guys like Quinn & Levi will eat a good chunk. Also, they’re predicting the cap increases in 2024 & 2025 will be significant… but we’re not 100% sure of that. I’m never surprised when the league disappoints us. Also I do agree less players are keeping Buffalo on their NTC’s, but you never know.

-you’re probably correct on Gibson. Also not sure how missed or misremembered that he asked about Gibson last season, but I doubt he’s willing to give up
Significant assets with that term & cap hit.

- and you’re right Pittsburgh’s defense struggled but at the same time their team as a whole plays a more balanced style of play than we do.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

It would be neat to keep the cyclical goaltending debates in the goaltending thread. Mainly because I'm sick to death of it.

 

[Beerz]

2021-22 Winnipeg Jets:

Eric Comrie .920%
Connor Helebuyck .910%

You ever watch Helebuyck in loose checking international play? He's not super great. Sabres play a loose defensive game. I personally have a lot of doubts about how good Helebuyck may perform behind this Sabres D. I definitely feel it would be unwise to give up a lot of assets for him. I also heavily doubt he would re-sign in Buffalo. This is not a cup or bust year, so why waste a ton of assets for a goalie that may not be great and may only be here one season?

If you are talking about ponying up a mint for Saros, I could get behind that. But Helebuyck? Nah, rather fix the D and see what they have with this current trio.

I can't believe you used Comries and Hellys save % as if it actually means anything.

 

[Zman5778]

Comrie played 19 games that season, almost half of those games poorly or below average. That is about 10 good games in a season. A very small sample to consider him a good goaltender or even an NHL goaltender. Prior to the 21-22 season, he only played nine NHL games in 5 seasons with different teams, averaging very bad GAA and SV%.

I don't need to imagine who Hellebuyck is, one of the best and most stable goaltenders in the NHL in recent years, who receives a lot of work every year.

Comrie played 19 games this season, and yet you have no problems saying that he's a poor NHL goaltender.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Comrie played 19 games this season, and yet you have no problems saying that he's a poor NHL goaltender.

There’s a good chance that Comrie will be waived for like the 4th time in his career this year. We’re not still trying to convince ourselves that he’s good, right? We watched the games. Every single metric says he was horrible. Eye test and data backs it up. He’s a career sub-.900 goaltender. The one good year as a backup with an incredibly light workload is what I thought it was - an aberration.

 

[Zman5778]

There’s a good chance that Comrie will be waived for like the 4th time in his career this year. We’re not still trying to convince ourselves that he’s good, right? We watched the games.

We watched the games. He had some games where he was rock solid and steady. And he had a couple of clunkers. By and large, he made the saves he should.

I'm saying we don't know if he's good, average or poor -- our defense made it impossible for any goalie to look good with any consistency. All 4 of our goalies last year played well/average at times and poorly at times.

 

[RefsIdeas]

We watched the games. He had some games where he was rock solid and steady. And he had a couple of clunkers. By and large, he made the saves he should.

I'm saying we don't know if he's good, average or poor -- our defense made it impossible for any goalie to look good with any consistency. All 4 of our goalies last year played well/average at times and poorly at times.

We do know that all of our goalies played in front of the same defense and Comrie performed worse than any other by a fair margin.

 

[Zman5778]

We do know that all of our goalies played in front of the same defense and Comrie performed worse than any other by a fair margin.

If you take out the Dallas game where the team was a complete no-show in front of Comrie (granted, he let in a couple of stinkers, but still).............

His numbers become better than UPLs.

 

[Irie]

There’s a good chance that Comrie will be waived for like the 4th time in his career this year. We’re not still trying to convince ourselves that he’s good, right? We watched the games. Every single metric says he was horrible. Eye test and data backs it up. He’s a career sub-.900 goaltender. The one good year as a backup with an incredibly light workload is what I thought it was - an aberration.

I watched all the games, and 90% of the goals I am pinning on the team D. He gave up crap goals after the team had let him down for 4 or 5 goals in games yes, But that is indicative of most goalies when frustrated.

Comrie is NOT an all-star goalie that is going to regularly make the impossible saves, but then neither is Helebuyck in my opinion. The Jets do a pretty good job of closing the passing lanes, and when they don't, Helebuyck does not look good either.

Anyone that doubts that statement, just go peruse the Jets goals against the last couple of years, they are all online if you have time to kill.

The Sabres limited high danger chances in a few of Comrie's games and he was solid and had a couple shutouts. I am not saying he is the answer, but he is a better nhl backup on teams that can play NHL D than most give him credit for in this forum (where half the posters don't analyze the plays, but just looks at stats).

I can't believe you used Comries and Hellys save % as if it actually means anything.

Don't be obtuse.

I am showing how going from a team that plays a five man collapsing system to a wide open system that leaves 12 foot passing lanes wide open in their own zone regularly can effect the stats of a goalie. .920 -> .886

Goalie save percentage stats honestly mean close to nothing when comparing payers from different teams. Even on the same team, stats can be pretty irrelevant. A few strange bounces can highly skew the small differences in save percentage within the small sample sizes that we are evaluating.


Anyone on this board that wants a goalie that can steal games for this team without the team correcting the embarrassingly awful defensive coverage in their own zone should be pushing for Saros, because he is about the only option with the skill set to be a difference maker given the conditions.

Seriously. Watch the goals. The Jets went through a stretch this year where they were playing total crap D and Helebuyck was awful. Check out the span after the ASG where the jets went 2-7-2 and they were playing D like the Sabres do and Helebuyck started 9 of those games.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Uhh, UPL was rated 65th in GSAA. Anderson was 31st. Comrie was 59th.

Our goalies were last year:

Shit
Shitty
and
Shittiest.

The fact that they are taking Shitty and Shittiest and adding a 21 year old to the mix is absolutely mind boggling.

You’re talking past me. Buffalo gives up a lot of HDSC, Hellebuyck is not a big upgrade against HDSC, and may even be a downgrade. He’s a huge upgrade against LDSC and MDSC.

 

[RefsIdeas]

I watched all the games, and 90% of the goals I am pinning on the team D. He gave up crap goals after the team had let him down for 4 or 5 goals in games yes, But that is indicative of most goalies when frustrated.

Comrie is NOT an all-star goalie that is going to regularly make the impossible saves, but then neither is Helebuyck in my opinion. The Jets do a pretty good job of closing the passing lanes, and when they don't, Helebuyck does not look good either.

Anyone that doubts that statement, just go peruse the Jets goals against the last couple of years, they are all online if you have time to kill.

The Sabres limited high danger chances in a few of Comrie's games and he was solid and had a couple shutouts. I am not saying he is the answer, but he is a better nhl backup on teams that can play NHL D than most give him credit for in this forum (where half the posters don't analyze the plays, but just looks at stats).


Don't be obtuse.

I am showing how going from a team that plays a five man collapsing system to a wide open system that leaves 12 foot passing lanes wide open in their own zone regularly can effect the stats of a goalie. .920 -> .886

Goalie save percentage stats honestly mean close to nothing when comparing payers from different teams. Even on the same team, stats can be pretty irrelevant. A few strange bounces can highly skew the small differences in save percentage within the small sample sizes that we are evaluating.


Anyone on this board that wants a goalie that can steal games for this team without the team correcting the embarrassingly awful defensive coverage in their own zone should be pushing for Saros, because he is about the only option with the skill set to be a difference maker given the conditions.

Seriously. Watch the goals. The Jets went through a stretch this year where they were playing total crap D and Helebuyck was awful. Check out the span after the ASG where the jets went 2-7-2 and they were playing D like the Sabres do and Helebuyck started 9 of those games.

I hand tracked each game. Yes, it’s subjective. No, I don’t have a perfect method for tracking. But I had Comrie well over any other goalie with shots that were realistically able to be saved. Far from a perfect method - yes - but I didn’t have it close.

I’d invite anybody else to do the same and would be happy to share data with them.

 

[Irie]

I hand tracked each game. Yes, it’s subjective. No, I don’t have a perfect method for tracking. But I had Comrie well over any other goalie with shots that were realistically able to be saved. Far from a perfect method - yes - but I didn’t have it close.

I’d invite anybody else to do the same and would be happy to share data with them.

If you take out the two games where Granato refused to pull Comrie (Dallas and Vegas) and he gave up 10 goals in the third periods, (17 in the two games), Comrie was basically a .900% goalie on the season (.899). Any goalie in the league is going to be shit if the coach leaves him in when the team is playing crappy D and he has already given up several goals in the third period - it is normal for just about all goalies.

I don't know what your tracking method is. Have you ever played Goal? What do you consider "should save"? If a shot is redirected, a save after is lucky. If a shot is post and in, a goalie typically won't make that save. I am not pinning any goals of that nature on the goalies, and Comrie had a ton of goals against that fell into those categories.

After the 10 goal mess in mid March, Comrie stopped 97 of 103 shots the rest of the season.

The narrative that he is an AHL goalie is stupid. He was better than a lot of goalies in the league in many of his starts. His stats had some pretty bad games, but he was actually good in a lot of his games as well.

He is not Ryan Miller or Hasek and he can't steal games for this team when they fail to do their jobs defensively. He is not going to make a lot of saves on unsaveable shots. If that is the criteria, then 90% of the goalies in the league are AHL galies. Honestly, that doesn't make him a shit goalie. It is true that he is not a goalie that can save this team under those circumstances.

Maybe the solution is fix the circumstances instead of trying to find another Hasek to play net here.

 

[RefsIdeas]

If you take out the two games where Granato refused to pull Comrie (Dallas and Vegas) and he gave up 10 goals in the third periods, (17 in the two games), Comrie was basically a .900% goalie on the season (.899). Any goalie in the league is going to be shit if the coach leaves him in when the team is playing crappy D and he has already given up several goals in the third period - it is normal for just about all goalies.

I don't know what your tracking method is. Have you ever played Goal? What do you consider "should save"? If a shot is redirected, a save after is lucky. If a shot is post and in, a goalie typically won't make that save. I am not pinning any goals of that nature on the goalies, and Comrie had a ton of goals against that fell into those categories.

After the 10 goal mess in mid March, Comrie stopped 97 of 103 shots the rest of the season.

The narrative that he is an AHL goalie is stupid. He was better than a lot of goalies in the league in many of his starts. His stats had some pretty bad games, but he was actually good in a lot of his games as well.

He is not Ryan Miller or Hasek and he can't steal games for this team when they fail to do their jobs defensively. He is not going to make a lot of saves on unsaveable shots. If that is the criteria, then 90% of the goalies in the league are AHL galies. Honestly, that doesn't make him a shit goalie. It is true that he is not a goalie that can save this team under those circumstances.

Maybe the solution is fix the circumstances instead of trying to find another Hasek to play net here.

Nope. I did however spent last summer trying to learn as much as I could about how to scout players so I can better evaluate what I’m seeing. This hand tracking this year was my first iteration of giving it a try.

It’s not perfect. At all. I’m sure I’m wrongly assigning blame in some circumstances. However like I said - it’s not close with Comrie being worse than the others. If you want to go through and give it a shot yourself id encourage it - you may be remembering what you saw incorrectly. Which is why I wanted to have the data to refer back on.

 

[RefsIdeas]

If you take out the Dallas game where the team was a complete no-show in front of Comrie (granted, he let in a couple of stinkers, but still).............

His numbers become better than UPLs.

Do we get to take out UPLs worst game too?

 

[Zman5778]

Do we get to take out UPLs worst game too?

Sure, if you want to.

The reason I threw out the 10 goal fiasco against Dallas is because it was way, WAY out of anything even approaching normal. Comrie's next worst game was the 6-spot against VGK and then two 5-spots.

UPL had 2 7-goal games, 1 6-goal game and then 4 5-goal games. Which is to say, UPL's worst game isn't so far out of whack.

Taking out UPL's singular worst game has a much smaller effect on his numbers.