Player Discussion All Purpose Goaltending Thread

Chainshot

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At this point i think we're down to semantics.

I'm all about adding a 'decent' starter. The best guy we can realistically get.

Saros is a lot more than a 'decent starter'. He's a guy that will cost you a ton of assets to acquire - after which you would be obliged to play him in 60+ games.

For the millionth time - this is what I would do if i were GM. But we all know Adams is going to ride Levi.

Yeah, I think we're splitting hairs, no worries.

There is no obligation to play a tender 60 games, in Saros case it seems to have more to do with the Preds backup Riddich last year for the first time and then this year they were trying hard until late to make a push... and then sold and made a push anyway.
 

NotABadPeriod

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So, in looking at this objectively, a few thoughts:

UPL is entering his 5th season. He is waiver exempt for 29 more games (per capfriendly). This does make him not getting any starts late in the season. He's also on a one way deal next year, meaning he makes 925k either way.

Comrie would have to pass thru waivers. They can buy him out for 1.2M spread over 2 years (600k a year). I'm not seeing him getting claimed unless another team runs into injury issues.

Regardless of what you want to do with Levi, I don't think anyone wants to see him start 50 games next year. That means, you need someone to eat most of the starts.

Who will do that?

Comrie? No
UPL? No.

So, that puts us in the position we need to add an outside goalie. UFA, trade, etc. Doesn't matter how. We have to add a goalie.

The question is, who is the odd goalie out.

IF we are talking in terms of disposability, Comrie is the obvious answer. He's probably never going to be a starter in this league. He's, at best, an average backup. On a good defensive team, he will look good. On our team, as is? He's going to look bad.

UPL has upside. Will he ever achieve it? That is another question. There will likely be a team interested in taking him, especially since he can go to the minors for one more year. I've floated Calgary as a possibility with Wolf likely ascending to the big club next year. But...it's not like we are going to get a king's ransom at this point.

So, in terms of plans, there are two:

You go get a starting goalie. Two year term is probably the magic number here. Someone who is OK with potentially being in a split start situation, but also understands the team is about winning, so, the best goalie will get more starts.

This is where it diverges a bit. You move UPL, then I think the obvious plan is, at least to start the season:

Comrie as backup, Levi to the AHL. That isn't to say Levi won't get starts, he will. Injuries happen, he may just flat out earn a callup.

However, if you move out Comrie and get a vet starter, then I think there is at least a bit of intrigue what to do. You COULD simply make it an open competition for the 2nd goalie role. Just let UPL and Levi fight it out. I think you could put the thumb on the scale for UPL a bit, just to get Levi some extra starts in the AHL....but if Levi is a clear winner, UPL can go to Rochester with no risk of being claimed. And it likely wouldn't be the last we see of him either way.

The option of UPL/Levi fighting for the 2nd goalie slot is intriguing to me. It's a bit of a hedge on Levi. If he struggles adjusted to the pros, etc, we have another young goalie. I think it would also be very wise to get a veteran goalie coach in here ASAP. Someone to work with both of them, watch tape with them, etc.

What you absolutely cannot do is come to camp next year with Comrie/Levi/UPL and just hope for the best. It's a recipe for a disaster. We need some veteran stability to go with young upside. Cormie doesn't provide any stability as a regular starter.
This is UPL's 5th season that he just finished. He requires waivers next year, games played no longer factors in. CapFriendly has him requiring waivers starting in 2023-24.
 
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Rowley Birkin

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Yeah, I think we're splitting hairs, no worries.

There is no obligation to play a tender 60 games, in Saros case it seems to have more to do with the Preds backup Riddich last year for the first time and then this year they were trying hard until late to make a push... and then sold and made a push anyway.
You might not play him for 60+ games - but you'd be obliged to give him the lion's share. Which would be perfect if Levi was down in the AHL doing the same thing. The problem is - he won't be.
 

Chainshot

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You might not play him for 60+ games - but you'd be obliged to give him the lion's share. Which would be perfect if Levi was down in the AHL doing the same thing. The problem is - he won't be.

If they were to acquire Saros, then it is very easy to put Levi in the AHL to work on his rebound control and get fine tuned for pro play. The acquisition wouldn't be easy however.
 
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Rowley Birkin

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If they were to acquire Saros, then it is very easy to put Levi in the AHL to work on his rebound control and get fine tuned for pro play. The acquisition wouldn't be easy however.
Do you honestly see Adams doing this? To be honest - it's what i thought would happen right up until Levi signed & played his first game....

But after the way Adams rode him - i can only see Levi being in the NHL next year.
 
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Jim Bob

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Do you honestly see Adams doing this? To be honest - it's what i thought would happen right up until Levi signed & played his first game....

But after the way Adams rode him - i can only see Levi being in the NHL next year.
I expect the Sabres to plan on having Levi in Buffalo to start next season.

But, if they are serious about making the playoffs next season, then I believe that they have to plan for a scenario like Ryan Miller's rookie pro season or Spencer Knight's first full pro season where they had serious struggles and were sent to the AHL.

And I believe putting as many eggs in another basket greatly increases the odds that they make the playoffs next season.
 

TehDoak

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This is UPL's 5th season that he just finished. He requires waivers next year, games played no longer factors in. CapFriendly has him requiring waivers starting in 2023-24.

I double checked the rules and it appears you are correct.

It's based on when he signed, not contract years (I thought since his first pro season was a ELC slide year, he'd be elgible next year as well).

giphy.gif
 

Rowley Birkin

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I expect the Sabres to plan on having Levi in Buffalo to start next season.

But, if they are serious about making the playoffs next season, then I believe that they have to plan for a scenario like Ryan Miller's rookie pro season or Spencer Knight's first full pro season where they had serious struggles and were sent to the AHL.

And I believe putting as many eggs in another basket greatly increases the odds that they make the playoffs next season.
Well - as we have already established - everybody agrees with that.

But they aren't getting a guy like Saros to be the other basket. If you're hoping for that - you're going to end up disappointed.
 
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Fezzy126

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I expect the Sabres to plan on having Levi in Buffalo to start next season.

But, if they are serious about making the playoffs next season, then I believe that they have to plan for a scenario like Ryan Miller's rookie pro season or Spencer Knight's first full pro season where they had serious struggles and were sent to the AHL.

And I believe putting as many eggs in another basket greatly increases the odds that they make the playoffs next season.

You keep making this statement, but I don't entirely agree. At the beginning of this season, the team started with:
- a 41 year old goalie that they had to coax out of retirement
- a semi-young goalie with a dozen decent starts who was waived several times the year before
- a young goalie with mediocre AHL results thus far in his career

There was a decent split among the goalies, with each getting between ~20-30 starts. And despite what looked like the worst goalie tandem in the league, we only missed the playoffs by two points.

1681824124997.png


Despite the narrow miss, I wouldn't say goaltending cost us the playoffs. There were certainly poor games in the second half of the year, but for the majority of the season the goalies performed in line with expectations.

1681824673176.png
1681824698642.png


In fact, most fans agreed that team defense was a much bigger problem than goaltending until probably somewhere around game 50 or 60, then the narrative shifted.

I really don't have a problem with the team going into next year planning for an even time split between Levi and then one of UPL/Comrie for the first 50 games, then leaning more heavily on one down the stretch, or targeting a goalie at the TDL if neither is providing the consistency we need.

It's not ideal, but I really don't think it means we're not serious about the playoffs.
 

RefsIdeas

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You keep making this statement, but I don't entirely agree. At the beginning of this season, the team started with:
- a 41 year old goalie that they had to coax out of retirement
- a semi-young goalie with a dozen decent starts who was waived several times the year before
- a young goalie with mediocre AHL results thus far in his career

There was a decent split among the goalies, with each getting between ~20-30 starts. And despite what looked like the worst goalie tandem in the league, we only missed the playoffs by two points.

View attachment 690748

Despite the narrow miss, I wouldn't say goaltending cost us the playoffs. There were certainly poor games in the second half of the year, but for the majority of the season the goalies performed in line with expectations.

View attachment 690762View attachment 690764

In fact, most fans agreed that team defense was a much bigger problem than goaltending until probably somewhere around game 50 or 60, then the narrative shifted.

I really don't have a problem with the team going into next year planning for an even time split between Levi and then one of UPL/Comrie for the first 50 games, then leaning more heavily on one down the stretch, or targeting a goalie at the TDL if neither is providing the consistency we need.

It's not ideal, but I really don't think it means we're not serious about the playoffs.
I truly don't know how you can say the bolded, then immediately post those charts. We were loss flipped to a win from making the playoffs. You posted charts showing far below average results from our goalies.
 
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TehDoak

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Honestly, the Swayman offersheet (or just a trade) makes sense

Boston is up against it cap wise.


They either have to start paying teams to take guys or they are going to have to lose a key contributor or two. Bussi has played well in Providence and Ullmark has a NMC that becomes a NTC this summer.

A 2 year deal, 6M per, Boston simply will be unable to match. They don't have the cap space or picks to retaliate until 2026, and by then nearly all our core should be locked up. I think you could probably get him for a little less if you were willing to take on Reilly or help with another cap dump.

IF Levi is ready to take the reigns by himself at the end of next year, we can move Swayman to recoup the picks we spent on him.

Worst case scenario Swayman is average outside of Boston...which would still be an upgrade over what we have.

And given the volume of good Boston UFAs that will be walking (Clifton, Nosek, Hathaway), maybe Swayman can help us with recruiting that pool as well.
 

Jim Bob

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You keep making this statement, but I don't entirely agree. At the beginning of this season, the team started with:
- a 41 year old goalie that they had to coax out of retirement
- a semi-young goalie with a dozen decent starts who was waived several times the year before
- a young goalie with mediocre AHL results thus far in his career

There was a decent split among the goalies, with each getting between ~20-30 starts. And despite what looked like the worst goalie tandem in the league, we only missed the playoffs by two points.

View attachment 690748

Despite the narrow miss, I wouldn't say goaltending cost us the playoffs. There were certainly poor games in the second half of the year, but for the majority of the season the goalies performed in line with expectations.

View attachment 690762View attachment 690764

In fact, most fans agreed that team defense was a much bigger problem than goaltending until probably somewhere around game 50 or 60, then the narrative shifted.

I really don't have a problem with the team going into next year planning for an even time split between Levi and then one of UPL/Comrie for the first 50 games, then leaning more heavily on one down the stretch, or targeting a goalie at the TDL if neither is providing the consistency we need.

It's not ideal, but I really don't think it means we're not serious about the playoffs.
There about as many examples of a 22yo or younger #1 being good enough over the past decade (2) than you see goalies acquired at the TDL being able to make a significant impact with their new team. Goalies take time to get used to their new team and the chances that they give up.

Betting on Levi to be the #1 is just as risky as betting that a TDL acquisition can stabilize things in net.

And I don't know about you, but people were complaining about goaltending around the time that the 8 game skid happened and it didn't really go away as Anderson was unable to play a real #1 workload and neither UPL nor Comrie gave them consistent enough play in net all year.

Honestly, the Swayman offersheet (or just a trade) makes sense

Boston is up against it cap wise.


They either have to start paying teams to take guys or they are going to have to lose a key contributor or two. Bussi has played well in Providence and Ullmark has a NMC that becomes a NTC this summer.

A 2 year deal, 6M per, Boston simply will be unable to match. They don't have the cap space or picks to retaliate until 2026, and by then nearly all our core should be locked up. I think you could probably get him for a little less if you were willing to take on Reilly or help with another cap dump.

IF Levi is ready to take the reigns by himself at the end of next year, we can move Swayman to recoup the picks we spent on him.

Worst case scenario Swayman is average outside of Boston...which would still be an upgrade over what we have.

And given the volume of good Boston UFAs that will be walking (Clifton, Nosek, Hathaway), maybe Swayman can help us with recruiting that pool as well.
I think an RFA OS is as unlikely to happen as trading for Saros.
 

RefsIdeas

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Honestly, the Swayman offersheet (or just a trade) makes sense

Boston is up against it cap wise.


They either have to start paying teams to take guys or they are going to have to lose a key contributor or two. Bussi has played well in Providence and Ullmark has a NMC that becomes a NTC this summer.

A 2 year deal, 6M per, Boston simply will be unable to match. They don't have the cap space or picks to retaliate until 2026, and by then nearly all our core should be locked up. I think you could probably get him for a little less if you were willing to take on Reilly or help with another cap dump.

IF Levi is ready to take the reigns by himself at the end of next year, we can move Swayman to recoup the picks we spent on him.

Worst case scenario Swayman is average outside of Boston...which would still be an upgrade over what we have.

And given the volume of good Boston UFAs that will be walking (Clifton, Nosek, Hathaway), maybe Swayman can help us with recruiting that pool as well.
You’re not wrong, but the thing with RFAs is they have to sign the contract still. If Swayman doesn’t want to go to Buffalo, it does us no good.

While there should be reason for him to want to, sometimes the “just offersheet the guy” isn’t as simple as it sounds. It takes two to tango, as they say.
 
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Rowley Birkin

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Honestly, the Swayman offersheet (or just a trade) makes sense

Boston is up against it cap wise.


They either have to start paying teams to take guys or they are going to have to lose a key contributor or two. Bussi has played well in Providence and Ullmark has a NMC that becomes a NTC this summer.

A 2 year deal, 6M per, Boston simply will be unable to match. They don't have the cap space or picks to retaliate until 2026, and by then nearly all our core should be locked up. I think you could probably get him for a little less if you were willing to take on Reilly or help with another cap dump.

IF Levi is ready to take the reigns by himself at the end of next year, we can move Swayman to recoup the picks we spent on him.

Worst case scenario Swayman is average outside of Boston...which would still be an upgrade over what we have.

And given the volume of good Boston UFAs that will be walking (Clifton, Nosek, Hathaway), maybe Swayman can help us with recruiting that pool as well.
Offer sheets so rarely happen in reality that they are barely worth discussing. I'm also not comfortable in making offer sheets when we have so many RFAs of our own coming up for renewal this year & beyond.

Also - if we're hell bent on giving Levi a starter/#1a role.... Then the backup/#1b needs to be more experienced/more proven than Swayman.
 

TehDoak

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I think an RFA OS is as unlikely to happen as trading for Saros.

Well....I don't think you get to that point.

If Boston wants to ship him out west...consider the suitors. San Jose and Chicago both have 2 1st round picks, need a goalie, and have cap space. But....the pick they would be willing to trade will be at the end of the 1st, not the middle.

Buffalo can take on cap space. We could take back Reilly, we could take on one of Gryzlyck/Forbort, we could send back cheap players.

There's a lot of ways you can make the deal work.
 

Jim Bob

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Well....I don't think you get to that point.

If Boston wants to ship him out west...consider the suitors. San Jose and Chicago both have 2 1st round picks, need a goalie, and have cap space. But....the pick they would be willing to trade will be at the end of the 1st, not the middle.

Buffalo can take on cap space. We could take back Reilly, we could take on one of Gryzlyck/Forbort, we could send back cheap players.

There's a lot of ways you can make the deal work.
I doubt that Adams is willing to part with his 2023 1st for a goalie like Swayman.

I wouldn't hate Swayman as the upgrade over Comrie & UPL. But, I wouldn't acquire him if the assets that they used to acquire him could be better used to get an upgrade in the top 4 D.

I think Swayman is a younger version of Raanta/Andersen. The two big +s to trading for Swayman is that you will have him longer and you don't have to worry about him turning the team down because they don't want to play behind this team defense.
 

Bendium

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The only scenario that they just should NOT do is start next season with UPL/Comrie and Levi in the AHL. Thats stupid.

The wildcard for me is "what does Levi want to do?" He has talked many times about being in no hurry and not wanting to skip steps. He definitely has got some rast reaction times and reads the play well, but if we are being honest, he also has quite a few holes in his game that NHL teams will exploit once they have the book on him. I will not be shocked if Levi wanted these NHL games to get tape and figure out what he need to work on, and he could fully intend to spend a full year in the AHL to take a Calder stab and work on getting his pro game ready.

If they start Levi in the AHL then they HAVE TO get a legit starter ahead of either UPL or Comrie and trade the other.

If they start Levi in the NHL then they HAVE TO get a legit starter to pair with him to manage workload/practice/development and help the team get to the playoffs. No room for UPL/Comrie.

SO.........unless they are stupid enough to do the bolded scenario, they HAVE TO get a legit starter.

On top of that .... what if Levi doesn't turn out to be the second coming? Then they HAVE TO get a legit starter.

See a theme here?

The team is ready to be a playoff team. Get the goaltending fixed.
 

Fezzy126

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I truly don't know how you can say the bolded, then immediately post those charts. We were loss flipped to a win from making the playoffs. You posted charts showing far below average results from our goalies.

Those charts showed that the expected results matched the actual results. In other words, we got shitty goaltending because our team played like shit in front of them.

The only outlier was Levi:
1681826964342.png


But, that's a seriously small sample size here... I maintain that the biggest problem is team defense, mostly our second pairing and the forward support.
There about as many examples of a 22yo or younger #1 being good enough over the past decade (2) than you see goalies acquired at the TDL being able to make a significant impact with their new team. Goalies take time to get used to their new team and the chances that they give up.

Betting on Levi to be the #1 is just as risky as betting that a TDL acquisition can stabilize things in net.

That's a fair argument, in season acquisitions do often struggle and take time to acclimate, and on top of that goalies are rarely moved at the TDL anyway.

Besides, our entire team is young. We're betting on a bunch of 20-22 year-olds to become major top 4/top 6 contributors on a playoff team. I know goalies historically have a different development timeline, but I'm not sure it's any less risky to bet on Levi than it is someone like Power to take major strides.

And I don't know about you, but people were complaining about goaltending around the time that the 8 game skid happened and it didn't really go away as Anderson was unable to play a real #1 workload and neither UPL nor Comrie gave them consistent enough play in net all year.

That's right. there were complaints about goaltending during the 8 game losing streak, but Samuelsson, Jokiharju, and Lyubushkin were all injured during that streak, it was ridiculous to complain about our goaltending given the state of our defense at the time.

Once we moved past that point, the focus of most board conversations shifted significantly to team defense. The goaltending wasn't bailing us out, but it certainly wasn't the reason we were losing games on most nights. The Vegas game comes to mind, how many breakaways/odd man breaks did we give up to Eichel that game?

My point remains, staying the course doesn't mean we're not serious about the playoffs, it just means that they're putting their faith in the kids' development. Frankly, their development plan has worked out pretty well for almost all of our young players.
 
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Jim Bob

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Those charts showed that the expected results matched the actual results. In other words, we got shitty goaltending because our team played like shit in front of them.

The only outlier was Levi:
View attachment 690795

But, that's a seriously small sample size here... I maintain that the biggest problem is team defense, mostly our second pairing and the forward support.
Capture.PNG

The play in front of the goalies was not good defensively and created one of the worst goalie environments in the league this season.

But, UPL and Comrie were not treading water in that bad environment. They were worse than expected in that environment.
 

Fezzy126

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View attachment 690819
The play in front of the goalies was not good defensively and created one of the worst goalie environments in the league this season.

But, UPL and Comrie were not treading water in that bad environment. They were worse than expected in that environment.

Didn't Dallas score 5+ goals over expected against Comrie in the 10 goal game? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that one outlier game heavily skews his overall numbers. There's also his second worst game against Vegas where we gave up a billion breakaways but the xG numbers for that game were relatively even.

Then there's the Bruins game where the team just gave up on UPL and hung him out to dry, and he had 2 or 3 goals go in that shouldn't have been on him at all.

Perhaps they were both slightly worse than replacement, but I think the GSAx numbers are exaggerate their performance and don't quite tell the picture for the majority of the season. The outlier games above seriously skewed the overall numbers. I'm not trying to nitpick results, all teams/goalies have high and low points, but this team never played stellar defense that helped regress the numbers back to the mean, and Donny NEVER pulled his goalies which made off nights look much worse from a numbers standpoint.

Bottom line, I'm not against bringing someone else in, but I think it's silly to talk about guys like Saros, he's not getting moved. I just don't think the type of guys that are available will give us anything better than Comrie or UPL, not behind this young group.
 

Jim Bob

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Didn't Dallas score 5+ goals over expected against Comrie in the 10 goal game? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that one outlier game heavily skews his overall numbers. There's also his second worst game against Vegas where we gave up a billion breakaways but the xG numbers for that game were relatively even.

Then there's the Bruins game where the team just gave up on UPL and hung him out to dry, and he had 2 or 3 goals go in that shouldn't have been on him at all.

Perhaps they were both slightly worse than replacement, but I think the GSAx numbers are exaggerate their performance and don't quite tell the picture for the majority of the season. The outlier games above seriously skewed the overall numbers. I'm not trying to nitpick results, all teams/goalies have high and low points, but this team never played stellar defense that helped regress the numbers back to the mean, and Donny NEVER pulled his goalies which made off nights look much worse from a numbers standpoint.

Bottom line, I'm not against bringing someone else in, but I think it's silly to talk about guys like Saros, he's not getting moved. I just don't think the type of guys that are available will give us anything better than Comrie or UPL, not behind this young group.
I do not see Comrie or UPL playing a style of game that is solid behind a team that gives up a ton of east to west plays.

That was the big difference with Levi. He was able to beat a lot those plays on his feet and take away the low areas. Anderson relied on his experience and his next level ability to read plays to survive.

Neither Comrie nor UPL have the ability to read the game the way Anderson did or beat plays on their feet like Levi can.

Capture.PNG


Quality Starts are a flawed stat. But, I do think it tells the tale of how inconsistent UPL and Comrie were behind this team compared to Anderson and Levi.

The same goes for GSAA.

And to say that it was just one or two bad starts that skewed everything is not being fair to how the goalies performed this season.

If Adams can't get someone in here that can have a .905+ Save% playing 40+ games next year, then I will have serious concerns about this team making the playoffs next season.
 
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michaelsaas

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Slightly OT but for those who were around during the original Goalie Controversy (Miller/Biron/Noronen) today's After The Whistle episode has an interesting anecdote at about the 40 minute market about playing on the team during the 3 goalie era.
 
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Chainshot

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Didn't Dallas score 5+ goals over expected against Comrie in the 10 goal game? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that one outlier game heavily skews his overall numbers. There's also his second worst game against Vegas where we gave up a billion breakaways but the xG numbers for that game were relatively even.

Then there's the Bruins game where the team just gave up on UPL and hung him out to dry, and he had 2 or 3 goals go in that shouldn't have been on him at all.

Perhaps they were both slightly worse than replacement, but I think the GSAx numbers are exaggerate their performance and don't quite tell the picture for the majority of the season. The outlier games above seriously skewed the overall numbers. I'm not trying to nitpick results, all teams/goalies have high and low points, but this team never played stellar defense that helped regress the numbers back to the mean, and Donny NEVER pulled his goalies which made off nights look much worse from a numbers standpoint.

Bottom line, I'm not against bringing someone else in, but I think it's silly to talk about guys like Saros, he's not getting moved. I just don't think the type of guys that are available will give us anything better than Comrie or UPL, not behind this young group.

Vegas Comrie stopped something like 6 of 8 breakaways or 2-on-1's but the "expected" value was low.
 

Gras

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Do you honestly see Adams doing this? To be honest - it's what i thought would happen right up until Levi signed & played his first game....

But after the way Adams rode him - i can only see Levi being in the NHL next year.
If they traded for Saros he would be getting the 50ish starts not Levi and at that point it definitely wouldn't make sense to have Levi up in the NHL for ~30 starts so you would be looking at Saros/Comrie in the NHL and Levi/Subban/Houser/UFA in Roch.

You keep making this statement, but I don't entirely agree. At the beginning of this season, the team started with:
- a 41 year old goalie that they had to coax out of retirement
- a semi-young goalie with a dozen decent starts who was waived several times the year before
- a young goalie with mediocre AHL results thus far in his career

There was a decent split among the goalies, with each getting between ~20-30 starts. And despite what looked like the worst goalie tandem in the league, we only missed the playoffs by two points.

View attachment 690748

Despite the narrow miss, I wouldn't say goaltending cost us the playoffs. There were certainly poor games in the second half of the year, but for the majority of the season the goalies performed in line with expectations.

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In fact, most fans agreed that team defense was a much bigger problem than goaltending until probably somewhere around game 50 or 60, then the narrative shifted.

I really don't have a problem with the team going into next year planning for an even time split between Levi and then one of UPL/Comrie for the first 50 games, then leaning more heavily on one down the stretch, or targeting a goalie at the TDL if neither is providing the consistency we need.

It's not ideal, but I really don't think it means we're not serious about the playoffs.
Be interesting to filter the charts so only games with Mattias are shown for each goalie.
 

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