Rumor: All about Alex DeBrincat -possible trade

[SoupNazi]

If this stretches past today or tomorrow, I'd be moderately surprised.

Nice to see someone want to play for us.

 

[Ricelund]

If Yzerman pulls this off, it'll be the biggest acquisition since Hossa, right? Am I forgetting anyone?

 

[JediOrderPizza]

If this stretches past today or tomorrow, I'd be moderately surprised.

Nice to see someone want to play for us.

The biggest thing right? Most people who toss out Nylander or any other big name just assume they would be grateful to don the winged wheel.

 

[norrisnick]

Is HFboards shitting itself right now? It's going super slow and that's making me nervous. Not that an ADB deal would break HFB... I hope...

 

[SoupNazi]

The biggest thing right? Most people who toss out Nylander or any other big name just assume they would be grateful to don the winged wheel.

Yeah - people forget when we throw the names of Player X who is UFA/available for trade that it isn't 2008 anymore, unfortunately.

Is HFboards shitting itself right now? It's going super slow and that's making me nervous. Not that an ADB deal would break HFB... I hope...

I'm having no issues with it.

Also, an ADB deal would only break it if he goes to the Leafs or Habs. Every time I have issues, my first thought is "I wonder if Matthews got traded."

 

[Snuggs]

If Yzerman pulls this off, it'll be the biggest acquisition since Hossa, right? Am I forgetting anyone?

THIS will be biggest since then for sure. It's huge with the moves he's already made.

I think Larkin/DeBrincat on the same line can really be a handful for teams.

Still think Ducks are in this.

 

[izlez]

If Yzerman pulls this off, it'll be the biggest acquisition since Hossa, right? Am I forgetting anyone?

I would say yes.

At the risk of triggering some people, the biggest ones I could come up with were Vrana, Fabbri, Nedeljkovic, and Mike Green. There might be a person or two that might want to argue for one of those, but it would most likely be Debrincat if we could pull it off

 

[ShelbyZ]

If Yzerman pulls this off, it'll be the biggest acquisition since Hossa, right? Am I forgetting anyone?

Probably David Legwand.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Probably David Legwand.

Oh, now I'm sad again.

 

[GMR]

Guys a 40 goal scorer wtf are you talking about?

Two years ago. Also, didn't he play with Kane that year?

I think this team needs grittier players. Maybe if we already had that, Debrincat would be a nice compliment. Then again, he had grit around him in Ottawa last year and didn't hit 30 goals.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Two years ago. Also, didn't he play with Kane that year?

I think this team needs grittier players. Maybe if we already had that, Debrincat would be a nice compliment. Then again, he had grit around him in Ottawa last year and didn't hit 30 goals.

The grit to the team is Copp, Rasmussen and we just added Compher, Kostin, Fisher. In the pipe is Kasper, Danielson, Mauzer, and Lombardi. We have a lot of salty physicality on this team and more on the way.

 

[GMR]

The grit to the team is Copp, Rasmussen and we just added Compher, Kostin, Fisher. In the pipe is Kasper, Danielson, Mauzer, and Lombardi. We have a lot of salty physicality on this team and more on the way.

Rasmussen plays a soft game, for his size especially. What is gritty about Copp?

Kostin is gritty but he won't be linemates with Debrincat. Compher is likely a 3rd liner. Ideally you pair someone like Debrincat with a tougher skilled forward. Or a Patrick Kane type that's just an elite playmaker.

I don't see him scoring 40 goals in Detroit if he couldn't hit 30 last season with better offensive players around him.

 

[BinCookin]

Rasmussen plays a soft game, for his size especially. What is gritty about Copp?

Kostin is gritty but he won't be linemates with Debrincat. Compher is likely a 3rd liner. Ideally you pair someone like Debrincat with a tougher skilled forward. Or a Patrick Kane type that's just an elite playmaker.

I don't see him scoring 40 goals in Detroit if he couldn't hit 30 last season with better offensive players around him.

Honestly Imagine this outcome:

We trade 1-2 players we like for Debrincat...
We pay him 8.75M for 5 Years.

And then he produces around 26-28 Goals per year
and 35 Assists.

Are we happy?? (I most definitely am NOT happy), because it gives reason to have other solid 2nd line players the leverage to ask for 6-7M in pay from the Red Wings.

I really feel like the only relevant history for Debrincat is 1 year... 66pts.
If we trade for Debrincat, I would prefer we do not sign him to an extension till the end of the year.

I am very worried about overpaying this guy, when I think honestly straight up Kubalik might outscore him!!

 

[RRhoads]

I don't see him scoring 40 goals in Detroit if he couldn't hit 30 last season with better offensive players around him.

He played with Batherson last year, I believe.

 

[mikerooooose]

Yeah. I really don't want to set the bar for this type of player at 8 million a year.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Love his game, really excited about this.

There’s risk, but you need to take on some risk to improve.

 

[Frk It]

Honestly Imagine this outcome:

We trade 1-2 players we like for Debrincat...
We pay him 8.75M for 5 Years.

And then he produces around 26-28 Goals per year
and 35 Assists.

Are we happy?? (I most definitely am NOT happy), because it gives reason to have other solid 2nd line players the leverage to ask for 6-7M in pay from the Red Wings.

I really feel like the only relevant history for Debrincat is 1 year... 66pts.
If we trade for Debrincat, I would prefer we do not sign him to an extension till the end of the year.

I am very worried about overpaying this guy, when I think honestly straight up Kubalik might outscore him!!

You would have to think he is going to shoot 10% or lower next year to think he doesn't score 30. The guy generates enough shots to score goals. I would bet he is more in his typical 11-15% conversion rate next year, and if so he is going to score 30-35 goals.

One of the reasons we don't have a top goal scorer is because no one we have generates the amount of overall/quality chances needed to hit that goal threshold. DeBrincat does not have this problem.

If you watch him you can also see pretty clearly he has a better shot than anyone we have, and he has pretty insane hand-eye coordination with the puck in tight or getting with getting his stick on re-directs.

 

[KJoe88]

I just wanna see Larkin and Debrincat tearing it up together.

And here’s the thing I had a random thought like that too. I do think they would low key be super dynamic.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't see him scoring 40 goals in Detroit if he couldn't hit 30 last season with better offensive players around him.

And herein lies the misconception.

He DIDN'T have better players around him last year. Norris was supposed to be his 2C, but was hurt all year. He got second line minutes with a rookie center and a middle six winger and still put up 66 points.

Put him with Larkin and Raymond, give him first line minutes, and you're getting 30-35 goals and 70-75 points without breaking a sweat. Maybe more if they really click.

Again, he's not perfect. I'd sooner take any of Connor/Nylander/Keller/Lindholm. But nobody has linked any of those guys to Detroit, and if there's nobody else interested, I'm not waiting around for if/when another first line scorer who wants to be a Red Wing magically appears.

 

[BinCookin]

You would have to think he is going to shoot 10% or lower next year to think he doesn't score 30. The guy generates enough shots to score goals. I would bet he is more in his typical 11-15% conversion rate next year, and if so he is going to score 30-35 goals.

One of the reasons we don't have a top goal scorer is because no one we have generates the amount of overall/quality chances needed to hit that goal threshold. DeBrincat does not have this problem.

If you watch him you can also see pretty clearly he has a better shot than anyone we have, and he has pretty insane hand-eye coordination with the puck in tight or getting with getting his stick on re-directs.

His Typical Shooting % is based on One of the best wingers in the world passing him the puck.

If Bertuzzi hits 95 points this season next to Mathews and Marner... does that make him a 95 point player?

If Bouchard is on PP1 in Edmonton and puts up 75 its in EDM... is he worth 10M a season??

Because those 2 guys are going to kill it this coming year if everything goes right, and they could get contracts they shouldn't really have.

 

[Frk It]

His Typical Shooting % is based on One of the best wingers in the world passing him the puck.

If Bertuzzi hits 95 points this season next to Mathews and Marner... does that make him a 95 point player?

If Bouchard is on PP1 in Edmonton and puts up 75 its in EDM... is he worth 10M a season??

Because those 2 guys are going to kill it this coming year if everything goes right, and they could get contracts they shouldn't really have.

Watch him play. Watch him shoot a puck. Tell me Kubalik is an equivalent player.

You only want good players when you can get good caphits? Ok, good luck with that.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Honestly Imagine this outcome:

We trade 1-2 players we like for Debrincat...
We pay him 8.75M for 5 Years.

And then he produces around 26-28 Goals per year
and 35 Assists.

Are we happy?? (I most definitely am NOT happy), because it gives reason to have other solid 2nd line players the leverage to ask for 6-7M in pay from the Red Wings.

I really feel like the only relevant history for Debrincat is 1 year... 66pts.
If we trade for Debrincat, I would prefer we do not sign him to an extension till the end of the year.

I am very worried about overpaying this guy, when I think honestly straight up Kubalik might outscore him!!

Judging by the board's collective history of players they've liked... I am thrilled if we trade them for Debrincat. Honestly, we're pretty bad at knowing who's good and who's bad.

26-28 and 35 assists isn't a second line player. It's just not an uber-elite first liner.

If you're talking like Edvinsson and Kasper for Debrincat? Yeah, everyone will be pissed. But that's two high first round picks. That's not going to be the cost with Ottawa needing him gone to make the acquisition they want and there only being two kinda realistic suitors and only one that can make the move without doing something else big.

His Typical Shooting % is based on One of the best wingers in the world passing him the puck.

If Bertuzzi hits 95 points this season next to Mathews and Marner... does that make him a 95 point player?

If Bouchard is on PP1 in Edmonton and puts up 75 its in EDM... is he worth 10M a season??

Because those 2 guys are going to kill it this coming year if everything goes right, and they could get contracts they shouldn't really have.

We're paying Larkin 8.7M. Dylan Larkin has to be the good player that guys play with. He's not Patrick Kane, no, but he's a PPG C and Cat would also probably be on a line with Raymond. He's not Datysuk going to play with Cleary and Abdelkader.

 

[BinCookin]

Watch him play. Watch him shoot a puck. Tell me Kubalik is an equivalent player.

You only want good players when you can get good caphits? Ok, good luck with that.

I mean to be fair, he is very likely better than Kubalik. But Let me ask you this.

Do you think it would be a good idea to wait till the end of the season to sign him to an extension?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The chances, Debrincat, a proven 40g guy under produces on the DRW and thus not worth his contract are significantly less then any 1 or 2 prospects/players ( berggren, Kubalik, fabbri, a late 1st, etc) attached to the current DRW out produce Debrincat and thus become a contractual bargain.

 

[The Zermanator]

Honestly Imagine this outcome:

We trade 1-2 players we like for Debrincat...
We pay him 8.75M for 5 Years.

And then he produces around 26-28 Goals per year
and 35 Assists.

Are we happy?? (I most definitely am NOT happy), because it gives reason to have other solid 2nd line players the leverage to ask for 6-7M in pay from the Red Wings.

I really feel like the only relevant history for Debrincat is 1 year... 66pts.
If we trade for Debrincat, I would prefer we do not sign him to an extension till the end of the year.

I am very worried about overpaying this guy, when I think honestly straight up Kubalik might outscore him!!

I think your pessimism is unwarranted. Look at his season by season stat line. Barring one outlier season of 18 goals in 70 games, the guy is basically guaranteed 30 goals at minimum.

17-18 (rookie season): 28 goals in 82 games.
18-19: 41 goals in 82 games.
19-20: 18 goals in 70 games (21 goal pace).
20-21: 32 goals in 52 games (50 goal pace).
21-22: 41 goals in 82 games.
22-23: 27 goals in 82 games.

His seasons under 30 goals include his rookie year, a blatant outlier year in 19-20, and this past season. Yet there are reasons to conclude this past season isn’t representative, when factoring in quality of linemates, etc.

He’d be Detroit’s best scorer by far. He wouldn’t be lacking in offensive opportunities for sure, and he’d be stapled to Detroit’s best offensive players with all the PP1 time he wants. I don’t see any scenario where he’s limited to 26-28 goals per year. Why are you using his floor as a projection, when half of his career has been at a 40-50 goal pace over a season?

Perhaps penciling him in for 40 goals a year is overly optimistic, but penciling him in at the mid-20s is far more pessimistic IMO. 35 goals a year is a perfectly reasonable projection for him given the opportunities he’d get in Detroit. And given this team’s desperate need for scoring, and the fact that there is no one currently in the pipeline who projects as nearly the goalscorer Debrincat is, I don’t think the Wings are in any position to not give their best effort at this opportunity, even if it means paying a million more per year than you’d prefer.