Confirmed with Link: Alexis Lafreniere Signs Extension [7Y/7.45M AAV]

[McRanger92]

This. 45-50p ES pts is actually very good. People fail to realize that high end pt producers rely on the PP for 30-40% of their totals (and as high as 50% in some extreme cases, such as Zib currently).

Take a look around the league at the types of players who put up 45-50 ESP. Thats also a rate that excludes the statistical anomalies that others have highlighted. With a few more bounces or lucky streak, that could be 60 ESP, which is good enough to be in the top 15-20 in ES scoring in most years.

The Rangers failed successfully in developing this guy. He figured out how to play full strength hockey first. The PP time will come eventually. If he starts finishing it will be an X factor for me layoffs. I expect an 80-90 point player in his prime

 

[n8]

This. 45-50p ES pts is actually very good. People fail to realize that high end pt producers rely on the PP for 30-40% of their totals (and as high as 50% in some extreme cases, such as Zib currently).

Take a look around the league at the types of players who put up 45-50 ESP. Thats also a rate that excludes the statistical anomalies that others have highlighted. With a few more bounces or lucky streak, that could be 60 ESP, which is good enough to be in the top 15-20 in ES scoring in most years.

Last year stats. You can see where Laf ranks in terms of EVP vs total points.

 

[NickyFotiu]

10. Alexis Lafrenière, New York Rangers​

Lafrenière is emerging as a crucial top-six supporting piece on one of the league’s most dangerous offensive lines.
The 2020 No. 1 pick is tied for 49th among all NHL forwards with 21 five-on-five points, meaning he’s producing at a bona fide first-line rate. He’s a prolific shooter, ranking top 20 among forwards for five-on-five high-danger chances and shots — he’s unlucky not to have more goals.

Lafrenière’s 21-goal, 50-point pace might seem modest for a top-six forward, but he barely sniffs power-play time because of the Rangers’ loaded first unit. He’d have way more points if he had a chance to play first-unit minutes in another situation.
Why has Lafrenière taken such a big step? It starts with Peter Laviolette’s decision to shift the 22-year-old to his off-wing on a line with Artemi Panarin, which has been a slam dunk. Lafrenière’s previously never had a chance to consistently play in the top six with a player of Panarin’s caliber.
Lafrenière isn’t just riding the coattails of Panarin — he looks way more aggressive and confident as a play driver. That’s a product of his significantly improved skating. Lafrenière used to look lethargic and lack pace. This year, he’s in the top 15 percent of forwards for speed bursts over 20 miles per hour.

The stats may say he’s only on track for an 11-point increase compared to last season, but the difference in how dangerous and impactful Lafreniere looks is night and day.

Ranking the NHL's top 10 most improved players of 2023-24

The players are ranked from No. 10 to No. 1 based on how much they've improved, not on overall impact.

theathletic.com

 

[McRanger92]

Does Lafreniere producing at a 1st line rate at ES still mean the Rangers ruined his development? Or can he now be counted as a success story?

 

[Harbour Dog]

Does Lafreniere producing at a 1st line rate at ES still mean the Rangers ruined his development? Or can he now be counted as a success story?

Are you saying we never stunted his development at the NHL level?

 

[McRanger92]

Are you saying we never stunted his development at the NHL level?

Development is in the eye of the beholder

 

[DanielBrassard]

Are you saying we never stunted his development at the NHL level?

Yes, that's what I would say. I think this development discussion is kind of absurd on its face actually.

 

[McRanger92]

Yes, that's what I would say. I think this development discussion is kind of absurd on its face actually.

One could argue the rangers were smart in making him an even strength player first.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Yes, that's what I would say. I think this development discussion is kind of absurd on its face actually.

I agree it's an absurd discussion, but very much disagree that the way we deployed Laf was beneficial to his development.

I think it's pretty far out there to think that it wouldn't have been better for him to have been force fed top6 minutes and PP1 time right out of the gate.

One could argue the rangers were smart in making him an even strength player first.

And he can't learn how to do that while also having been stuck to Panarin?

 

[DanielBrassard]

I agree it's an absurd discussion, but very much disagree that the way we deployed Laf was beneficial to his development.

I think it's pretty far out there to think that it wouldn't have been better for him to have been force fed top6 minutes and PP1 time right out of the gate.



And he can't learn how to do that while also having been stuck to Panarin?

I think it wouldn't have changed much honestly. Would it have boosted his point totals and made people happier because he would look better in comparison to other #1 picks? Sure but I don't think it would have changed anything else.

 

[McRanger92]

I agree it's an absurd discussion, but very much disagree that the way we deployed Laf was beneficial to his development.

I think it's pretty far out there to think that it wouldn't have been better for him to have been force fed top6 minutes and PP1 time right out of the gate.



And he can't learn how to do that while also having been stuck to Panarin?

They fired the coach who wouldn’t play him there didn’t they?

 

[Harbour Dog]

I think it wouldn't have changed much honestly. Would it have boosted his point totals and made people happier because he would look better in comparison to other #1 picks? Sure but I don't think it would have changed anything else.

Fair enough, agree to disagree. The point totals would have been nice to avoid all the bust talk getting thrown around, but I think he would have been playing at this level a year or two earlier, given no choice but to be on the ice at important times.

Not really a way to look at it that isn't anecdotal though.

 

[Harbour Dog]

They fired the coach who wouldn’t play him there didn’t they?

Two of them.

Anyway, I'm not saying we should have played him in the top6, and on PP1; we were/are trying to win a cup. But not doing that, is a speed bump in the road for his development. He'll still get to the player he should be hopefully, but I think he'd be getting there quicker given more responsibility.

 

[McRanger92]

Two of them.

Anyway, I'm not saying we should have played him in the top6, and on PP1; we were/are trying to win a cup. But not doing that, is a speed bump in the road for his development. He'll still get to the player he should be hopefully, but I think he'd be getting there quicker given more responsibility.

I mean hes 22. Ive been hard on him and open to moving him at points because, as you said, we've been trying to win a Cup. But hes 22 and already a top line scorer. Id rather be satisfied with that than worry about how he got there. He's a keeper and i expect a big second half

 

[bhamill]

There is zero way to say definitively that Lafreniere would have been at this level earlier if he had been stapled to PP1 and a top line and got tons of TOI from the get go and we lived with the growing pains rather trying to win. BUT conventional wisdom and common sense says that top tier/high pick prospects that get that treatment tend to develop faster.
SHOULD the NYR have done that with Laf and Kakko? It depends what you value more. Would you be okay with losing more games and maybe even missing the playoffs for a year or two… but Laf rounds into form quicker and there’s not so much ridiculous “bust,” “a third liner at best” and “he deserves a PTO as his next contract“ type nonsense? Plus consider how much more this cap strapped team would have had to already pay him…
l have always said, and continue us to say, NYR did okay for their circumstances. It was acceptable that they kept their wildly successful power play and their top lines intact. It was perfectly reasonable to continue to keep trying to win. BUT, it was then UNREASONABLE to bitch about how slow he was developing. It was an either or situation and management made their choice. To expect to have it both ways simultaneously was just not realistic.
I honestly think Laf has a PPG season as soon as next year, and IMO he’s a 90+ point player with a reasonably physical 200 foot game in his prime when he’s finally a regular on PP1.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Laf would have def been better had he been handled like basically every other top pick ever.

You don’t get better at things by doing them less.

Glad it looks like this coaching staff at least salvaged that situation to the point where at the very least, we have a pretty good player.

The load the team with vets and shaft your young players approach to player development was is/so stupid. Glad JG is in Montreal where he can oversee that happening again in a much less forgiving market.

 

[dshea19]

I can say, with all sincerity, that the Rangers do consistently develop my headaches. 100% success rate.

 

[will1066]

Does Lafreniere producing at a 1st line rate at ES still mean the Rangers ruined his development? Or can he now be counted as a success story?

You're ruining the development of this thread, mister.

 

[NickyFotiu]

When Laf looked slow and possibly out of shape last season he got the overwhelming majority of the blame. Now that he looks faster and in better shape he should get the overwhelming majority of the credit imo.
I'm very happy to see him step up. Would be even better if he can take another step up in the second half of this season.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

If he works on his shot the next few offseasons and improves it the way he has improved his skating & pace of play - with the amount of chances and shots he's had 5on5 there's no reason not to think he cant be a 30 goal scorer, even without consistent PP1 time.

Yes, he's been snakebitten and yes he also needs to improve his shot. Thats without a doubt. A little work and a little luck the next few seasons and he should be around that mark, especially playing with Panarin. But he does know how to get the greasy ones. Working on beating goalies clean and from distance more consistently, or even marginally will really provide a bump.

His shooting percentage, even with his usual, unimproved shot was 15.7% prior to this season. He's currently 9.5%. If he could bump that to 16-18% he could be a solid goal scorer. He gets a lot of good looks

He's already only 10 shots away from eclipsing his career high in shots (135) in what will likely be 30 or so less games. Provided he plays a full year he'll be around 210 shots. If this becomes his usual shot production in years to come all he needs to do is continue to improve those two skills.

At his current "snakebitten" rate he's a 20 goal scorer, mainly 5 on 5.
15% - 31 goals
16% - 33 goals
17% - 35 goals
18% - 38 goals

Personally, I think he will top out around as a 30-35 goal scorer in the coming seasons and that could increase if he gets significant PP1 time.

 

[bhamill]

If he works on his shot the next few offseasons and improves it the way he has improved his skating & pace of play - with the amount of chances and shots he's had 5on5 there's no reason not to think he cant be a 30 goal scorer, even without consistent PP1 time.

Yes, he's been snakebitten and yes he also needs to improve his shot. Thats without a doubt. A little work and a little luck the next few seasons and he should be around that mark, especially playing with Panarin. But he does know how to get the greasy ones. Working on beating goalies clean and from distance more consistently, or even marginally will really provide a bump.

His shooting percentage, even with his usual, unimproved shot was 15.7% prior to this season. He's currently 9.5%. If he could bump that to 16-18% he could be a solid goal scorer. He gets a lot of good looks

He's already only 10 shots away from eclipsing his career high in shots (135) in what will likely be 30 or so less games. Provided he plays a full year he'll be around 210 shots. If this becomes his usual shot production in years to come all he needs to do is continue to improve those two skills.

At his current "snakebitten" rate he's a 20 goal scorer, mainly 5 on 5.
15% - 31 goals
16% - 33 goals
17% - 35 goals
18% - 38 goals

Personally, I think he will top out around as a 30-35 goal scorer in the coming seasons and that could increase if he gets significant PP1 time.

All of that is pretty reasonable.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

All of that is pretty reasonable.

Sure is, considering if he was just shooting at his previous career percentage - He'd have 19-20 right now and on pace for 32-33, THIS season.

Its not like the eye-test isnt matching either - considering all of the grade A chances he gets every game.

Even if he split the difference, shooting at an OK 12.6% (which happens to be close to Kakko's career %), hed be on pace for 26.

 

[mas0764]

Does Lafreniere producing at a 1st line rate at ES still mean the Rangers ruined his development? Or can he now be counted as a success story?

I would definitely say the new coaches, probably Peca and Muse, figured out something that worked for him…. while also blaming the org in general for how slow it’s been for him.

This is what it looks like when a 1OA with elite talent coming into a franchise is barely salvaged at the last minute.

For Kakko it may be too late. Too much damage done to his ability to process offense at an NHL level for too long. This might be how he thinks the game now… and it’s not good enough.

FWIW I wouldn’t give up on him. The rental which won’t move the needle is essentially nothing. I’ll take my chances he busts into nothing rather than pawn him off for nothing.

 

[ColonialsHockey10]

That goal was a microcosm of how well he has been handled by the coaching staff this year.

I thought Laf was having one of his worst games of the year tonight. Stupid plays, skating around like a headless chicken, poor positioning, etc.

Lavi still doubles down on him and puts him out there for 3 v 3 with Mika of all players. Huge vote of confidence and boom, he’s the hero. Probably will come out flying next game too and they may have avoided a mini slope.

The coaches aren’t perfect but they’ve done excellent with him.

 

[EXTRAS]

Yah but when's he gonna get stapled to pp1?