Value of: Alexis LaFreniere RFA Contract

[Nikishin Go Boom]

A 1st and a 3rd from a bad team would be quite the risk. But a 1st and a 3rd from a top 8 team wouldn’t be that bad. Pretty good risk honestly.

1 x 6 million offer and then go from there. For a Canes, NJ (can’t afford it), Toronto (can’t afford it), Tampa (can’t afford it), Edmonton (cant), dallas (can they?), and a healthy Colorado (cant) would be a pretty easy yes for those teams if they have their picks and cap space

 

[Galactico]

Habs paid that for Josh Anderson

Habs are stupid.

 

[Flan the incredible]

I know it's been very rare but there's never been a team as vulnerable to offer sheets as the Rangers are right now. It's possible that they get in a position where they can't keep all of Laf, KAM, and Chytil.

And the Rangers would not be a team to be especially worried about pissing off. They won't have cap space for a long time to come.

Next year is the only year the Rangers could potentially have cap issues and even that is debatable as most of the players they need to sign that are not RFAs are bottom pairing guys and a backup goalie. Plus they probably just move goodrow especially if Othmann wins a spot. After that Trouba and Kreider lose their NMCs and Panarin is up in 3 years. Cap is going to go up so 1 offersheet where they lose a player creates a good amount of cap space for them.

Nobody would be dumb enough to offersheet any Ranger player next year.

 

[majormajor]

Next year is the only year the Rangers could potentially have cap issues and even that is debatable as most of the players they need to sign that are not RFAs are bottom pairing guys and a backup goalie. Plus they probably just move goodrow especially if Othmann wins a spot. After that Trouba and Kreider lose their NMCs and Panarin is up in 3 years. Cap is going to go up so 1 offersheet where they lose a player creates a good amount of cap space for them.

Nobody would be dumb enough to offersheet any Ranger player next year.

Even after unloading Goodrow, there isn't enough money to go around if the raises for Laf, Chytil, and KAM are big enough, if a team offers Chytil $7m, and/or KAM $8m, and/or Laf at $6m.

 

[majormajor]

Next year is the only year the Rangers could potentially have cap issues and even that is debatable as most of the players they need to sign that are not RFAs are bottom pairing guys and a backup goalie. Plus they probably just move goodrow especially if Othmann wins a spot. After that Trouba and Kreider lose their NMCs and Panarin is up in 3 years. Cap is going to go up so 1 offersheet where they lose a player creates a good amount of cap space for them.

Even after unloading Goodrow, the Rangers just can't keep all of Laf, KAM, and Chytil if they're getting offer sheeted at high enough numbers. They won't have $20m or even close to it to cover the costs.

 

[mouser]

Even after unloading Goodrow, the Rangers just can't keep all of Laf, KAM, and Chytil if they're getting offer sheeted at high enough numbers. They won't have $20m or even close to it to cover the costs.

Offer sheets are so rare it’s not really worth worrying about.

 

[DJB]

Not really. The Rangers don't have the cap space to extend him long term.

He'll get 2 x 2.5 or there abouts.

Anyone thinking he'll sign an offer sheet, think again. It won't happen.

Why? Because there will no offers or something else?

 

[bernmeister]

Even after unloading Goodrow, there isn't enough money to go around if the raises for Laf, Chytil, and KAM are big enough, if a team offers Chytil $7m, and/or KAM $8m, and/or Laf at $6m.

Rangers have to pay up wo bidding vs themselves
and players need to consider opportunity cost of taking more $$ -- assuming that is even the case, which is not a given -- vs playing w/linemates that have chemistry -> team on the upswing.

Rs need to full extend, NOT bridge, KAM + Chytil; bridge will cost more in the long run.
to do those 2, figure KAM = 6.25 X 8 and Chytil 4.6 x 5
These total 10.85
NY is getting back something like 3.4+ in recovered dead cap
Add another 1+ in league wide cap raise.
Total thus far = 5(ish)
deduct from 10.85 = 5.85
Sell high on Lindgren for picks = - 3 = 2.85

That can prob be done by creative roster mgmt w'o nec dealing Goodrow.
Remember we have a high end LD prospect, robertson, and another in view, Scanlin, to replace Lindgren. And I don't want to hear the bs that he is irreplaceable. We either deal him now or wind up w/Girardi 2 on our hands. We only need to bite the bullet and advance our youth instead of win now preference to vets.
Goodrow, remember, we got him so we have somebody to shadow bread's ass in the POs. This is one reason why adding Kane, etc is problematic. Regular season is dif, but POs are tougher and this reality needs to be recognized. Conclusion: we can't really move Goodrow until we jettison Panarin, unless we have Good replacement Cuylle play top 6, which is reasonable, but not immediately for next season.

LaF will take 1 yr cheap, bet on himself, up his #s, 2-2.5ish, and then we will see, but it is a given Trouba's 8m can be dealt and largely recovered. LaF seeing that is inclined to go less $ 1 season and stay w/kid line.

 

[stonecold316]

Imagine picking this kid first overall? LOL

 

[TGWL]

Even after unloading Goodrow, there isn't enough money to go around if the raises for Laf, Chytil, and KAM are big enough, if a team offers Chytil $7m, and/or KAM $8m, and/or Laf at $6m.

If a team offers Chytil 7 million or Miller 8 million, they deserve to get those players. Rangers will shake their hands and say "I'm not sure how you pulled that off. Congratulations and good luck"

Imagine picking this kid first overall? LOL

Imagining entering the thread just to LOL at your own joke. We haven't heard that one before. Thanks.

 

[TGWL]

Sell high on Lindgren for picks = - 3 = 2.85

The only issue I have with Lindgren is that he's frequently hurt or playing hurt from the way he plays the game. But our defense is in absolute shambles without him. You can't replace him within. So if the goal is to go out an get another dman, the money you save by trading him is now used elsewhere. There is nobody in our pipeline that can currently replace what he offers. Nobody.

 

[Zats Muccarello]

Imagine picking this kid first overall? LOL

Ah yes imagine making the unanimous decision that every other team would make in the same position

 

[stonecold316]

Ah yes imagine making the unanimous decision that every other team would make in the same position

Smart teams dodged that dud.

 

[hamzarocks]

Rangers have to pay up wo bidding vs themselves
and players need to consider opportunity cost of taking more $$ -- assuming that is even the case, which is not a given -- vs playing w/linemates that have chemistry -> team on the upswing.

Rs need to full extend, NOT bridge, KAM + Chytil; bridge will cost more in the long run.
to do those 2, figure KAM = 6.25 X 8 and Chytil 4.6 x 5
These total 10.85
NY is getting back something like 3.4+ in recovered dead cap
Add another 1+ in league wide cap raise.
Total thus far = 5(ish)
deduct from 10.85 = 5.85
Sell high on Lindgren for picks = - 3 = 2.85

That can prob be done by creative roster mgmt w'o nec dealing Goodrow.
Remember we have a high end LD prospect, robertson, and another in view, Scanlin, to replace Lindgren. And I don't want to hear the bs that he is irreplaceable. We either deal him now or wind up w/Girardi 2 on our hands. We only need to bite the bullet and advance our youth instead of win now preference to vets.
Goodrow, remember, we got him so we have somebody to shadow bread's ass in the POs. This is one reason why adding Kane, etc is problematic. Regular season is dif, but POs are tougher and this reality needs to be recognized. Conclusion: we can't really move Goodrow until we jettison Panarin, unless we have Good replacement Cuylle play top 6, which is reasonable, but not immediately for next season.

LaF will take 1 yr cheap, bet on himself, up his #s, 2-2.5ish, and then we will see, but it is a given Trouba's 8m can be dealt and largely recovered. LaF seeing that is inclined to go less $ 1 season and stay w/kid line.

You eill need to pay multiple 1sts to dump Trouba at 8m if you want no cap coming back

 

[TGWL]

You eill need to pay multiple 1sts to dump Trouba at 8m if you want no cap coming back

Most of those trades don't involve no cap coming back. You would end up with a roster player or another defensemen. But those wouldn't be full on cap dumps. Trouba might be a little over paid but GM's around the league will take Trouba without viewing it as a cap dump. Trouba only has 3 years left and doesn't turn 30 until next season.

I don't think it would cost multiple first unless you're offloading him immediately in the offseason just to clear the cap. I think GM's would be willing to make an actual hockey trade for Trouba.

 

[hamzarocks]

Most of those trades don't involve no cap coming back. You would end up with a roster player or another defensemen. But those wouldn't be full on cap dumps. Trouba might be a little over paid but GM's around the league will take Trouba without viewing it as a cap dump.

Yeah if you take back another player making a 5M you can probably get a 2nd or 3rd for Trouba

 

[hamzarocks]

Most of those trades don't involve no cap coming back. You would end up with a roster player or another defensemen. But those wouldn't be full on cap dumps. Trouba might be a little over paid but GM's around the league will take Trouba without viewing it as a cap dump. Trouba only has 3 years left and doesn't turn 30 until next season.



I don't think it would cost multiple first unless you're offloading him immediately in the offseason just to clear the cap. I think GM's would be willing to make an actual hockey trade for Trouba.

Yea a hockey trade could work



Bern's post made it seem as if the rangers dump 8M straight

 

[GCK]

I would think there is a remote chance MTL puts a 2 x 5M offer sheet in front of Laf. It would be idiotic but there could be ownership pressure.

 

[bernmeister]

The only issue I have with Lindgren is that he's frequently hurt or playing hurt from the way he plays the game. But our defense is in absolute shambles without him. You can't replace him within. So if the goal is to go out an get another dman, the money you save by trading him is now used elsewhere. There is nobody in our pipeline that can currently replace what he offers. Nobody.

I concur generally and have 0 issue w/his game.
The prob is we have painted ourselves into a cap corner, and there is zero other way to get around this until we recover Trouba/Panarin $$ which is not gonna happen in time for start of next season.
The overriding concern is to get ahead of, not behind cap, which again requires capitulation to reality KAM + Chytil be extended, which reduces cap hit long term, and not bridged.
Lindgren, even if he were to age well, is not worth losing those 2 when they can be locked up now.
We should have been developing Robertson better, and at least we have hope Scanlin may be ready.
But this damn sugar high immediate gratification posture Rs are taking is hurting us.

The only other roster mgmt workaround is to trade Shesty and move most of his $$$ for an elite guy w/low cap short term cost control, i.e., Sanderson from OTT or Byfield from LA. Then we go full on to get Garand ready, and in the meantime have Halak + ufa Talbot [who did well w/us under Allaire] til then.

 

[bernmeister]

You eill need to pay multiple 1sts to dump Trouba at 8m if you want no cap coming back

not sure that is 111% true and we don't need to get rid of all 8m.
we can also afford to do this in 2 stages.
4-5 m cap relief now
4-3 m cap with expiring deadwood

Anyhoo, Trouba will have a say in where he goes [contractually] and we will want to send him to a preferred location if possible to minimize his damage to us next coupla yrs.

 

[TGWL]

I concur generally and have 0 issue w/his game.
The prob is we have painted ourselves into a cap corner, and there is zero other way to get around this until we recover Trouba/Panarin $$ which is not gonna happen in time for start of next season.
The overriding concern is to get ahead of, not behind cap, which again requires capitulation to reality KAM + Chytil be extended, which reduces cap hit long term, and not bridged.
Lindgren, even if he were to age well, is not worth losing those 2 when they can be locked up now.
We should have been developing Robertson better, and at least we have hope Scanlin may be ready.
But this damn sugar high immediate gratification posture Rs are taking is hurting us.

The only other roster mgmt workaround is to trade Shesty and move most of his $$$ for an elite guy w/low cap short term cost control, i.e., Sanderson from OTT or Byfield from LA. Then we go full on to get Garand ready, and in the meantime have Halak + ufa Talbot [who did well w/us under Allaire] til then.

We're not getting either of those players. Shesterkin was great last season. He's hasn't been so great this season. No team is trading Sanderson for Shesterkin. Kings are not giving up on Byfield for Shesterkin. We don't have a Shesterkin replacement right now. Going with Halak + UFA goalie spells out disaster. The organization will not just toss away players to get ahead of the cap. They will make decisions as they come. They will not plan future cap space.

 

[Habs10025]

Pending RFA, still doesn't get much powerplay time, plays on a productive third line that produces well; at even stength. 21 years old, 198 career games played with 45 goals and 39 assists for 84 points.

What type of contract does he sign this off-season? Is he a potential offer-sheet candidate for rebuilding teams?

A. Lafreniere stats his first 3 years are worse than A. Daigle first 3 years and he was considered a bust

 

[bernmeister]

We're not getting either of those players. Shesterkin was great last season. He's hasn't been so great this season. No team is trading Sanderson for Shesterkin. Kings are not giving up on Byfield for Shesterkin. We don't have a Shesterkin replacement right now. Going with Halak + UFA goalie spells out disaster. The organization will not just toss away players to get ahead of the cap. They will make decisions as they come. They will not plan future cap space.

Your assessment of Shesty this season is off, respectfully.
Has he had a coupla uneven moments? Yes. So many to say "not so great this season"? No.
He is a legit Vezina calibre netminder, mid 20s young and good contract next 2 yrs.
That COMMANDS a top $$ return.

LA + OTT have signif prob w/lack of quality G holding back.
Losing a young stud would = wince, but adding a top G starter would = large + net benefit.
Either team can lose either guy and impact would not be like if Leafs lost Matthews/Oil lost McD.

Only ? on replacing him is how fast Garand, who has track record playing well in international competition, ascends. AHL club w/lots of holes is not sufficient basis for definitive evaluation of young G.
Halak has played well, and Talbot did for us under BA. Acknowledge that.
Sure the immediate G will suffer very short term but you are doing this to buy keeping both KAM + Chytil long term. Acknowledge that as well.

While reduced from all world Vezina, G output would not "spell[-] ... disaster".
Long term = a +.

As for
"The organization will not just toss away players to get ahead of the cap. They will make decisions as they come. They will not plan future cap space."

I reply:
it is not tossing them away [like Kravtsov].
We are getting real value back

They may indeed be making decisions as they come, but that will be a mistake, as the cap will be the master, not us the master of the cap.

Accordingly, they listen to bern and proceed as suggested, or as may be more likely, avoid current pain and not plan future cap space, but then we understand, they will pay for that later.

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Your assessment of Shesty this season is off, respectfully.
Has he had a coupla uneven moments? Yes. So many to say "not so great this season"? No.
He is a legit Vezina calibre netminder, mid 20s young and good contract next 2 yrs.
That COMMANDS a top $$ return.

LA + OTT have signif prob w/lack of quality G holding back.
Losing a young stud would = wince, but adding a top G starter would = large + net benefit.
Either team can lose either guy and impact would not be like if Leafs lost Matthews/Oil lost McD.

Only ? on replacing him is how fast Garand, who has track record playing well in international competition, ascends. AHL club w/lots of holes is not sufficient basis for definitive evaluation of young G.
Halak has played well, and Talbot did for us under BA. Acknowledge that.
Sure the immediate G will suffer very short term but you are doing this to buy keeping both KAM + Chytil long term. Acknowledge that as well.

While reduced from all world Vezina, G output would not "spell[-] ... disaster".
Long term = a +.

As for
"The organization will not just toss away players to get ahead of the cap. They will make decisions as they come. They will not plan future cap space."

I reply:
it is not tossing them away [like Kravtsov].
We are getting real value back

They may indeed be making decisions as they come, but that will be a mistake, as the cap will be the master, not us the master of the cap.

Accordingly, they listen to bern and proceed as suggested, or as may be more likely, avoid current pain and not plan future cap space, but then we understand, they will pay for that later.

@bernmeister, you are an absolute wildcat. I do think you're insane, but you are at least informed and on top of the Rangers' situation. However, there is no way in hell the NYR are trading Panarin, Trouba, and Shesterkin, like you are suggesting they are going to.

Also, the folks that are saying Laf will take a 2x2M contract seem nuts considering Trevor Van Riemsdyk can even get 3x3M. Really looking forward to seeing how NYR navigates the cap over the next bit. Not saying they can't do it but I think they will make some bold choices, especially with guys like Othmann on the way.

 

[TGWL]

Your assessment of Shesty this season is off, respectfully.

My assessment isn't off. I said he wasn't so great this season. I didn't say he was donkey doo. You can't just expect to get ELC great deals from other teams because it benefits us going forward and not so much the other team. It takes 2 to tangle. The other team needs to tangle. They're not here to build our team of superior cap future deals. It's not just about "This would be better for NYR". We can all build cap spectacular teams. It just doesn't work that way if the other team isn't willing to play.