Value of: Alexis LaFreniere RFA Contract

[Eggtimer]

Depends how confident they are that he’ll have a breakout and big jump in production..
think Cozens and Boldy type deals but that’s a huge risk

No way a team takes that big of a risk . He has not shown anything to indicate that he can develop into a Cozens or Boldy effectiveness . Maybe if he had flashes of elite play but he has looked very mediocre his entire NHL career . 2x2 seems about right.

 

[Altimus]

He's not worth 6.3m to the Rangers but his draft pedigree is on the rfa market. I suspect Rangers get him signed north of 5.5m for 6 years or else he gets offerheeted by Buffalo.

 

[GreeningOil]

He's not worth 6.3m to the Rangers but his draft pedigree is on the rfa market. I suspect Rangers get him signed north of 5.5m for 6 years or else he gets offerheeted by Buffalo.

I’d love to see drama in New York.

That being said, if it’s 2- 4M x2-3 I see him being locked up. Maybe if he wants 5.5x8.

 

[TGWL]

id do a 4 yr just under 2nd round comp max…I think around $3.5M or $4M. Rangers match he gets to UFA.

Buffalo can, but a second compensation would eliminate the following teams.
Boston, Montreal, Colorado, Winnipeg, Florida, Philly, Tampa, Toronto, Vancouver, Washington, and potentially NJ. (Depending on any conditions met)
That's 12 teams including NYR. Then you factor in cap him and your window gets even smaller.

 

[Profet]

They're going to need to pay him 5M+ or Jarmo is probably going to go after him like a fat kid to cake:

1. Tons of cap space
2. Desperate need of a center.
3. His roster isn't built to rebuild, half the guys are in their prime.
4. Team has some good players, so a future 1st might be late if they bounce back. Even a mid-round pick is unlikely to be as good as Laf.
5. Rangers are in an absolute cap crunch so they have few ways to match. Even if they do, it makes them vulnerable on guys like Miller and Chytil too
6. Jarmo gives zero f***s about etiquette. He will offer sheet a player if he thinks he can get them.

That is my 2 cents.

Some people are saying 4M, would the Rangers match 3 years 6.3M? Edit: 3 years 8.4M is only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. I doubt the Rangers can match that and I doubt Laf would refuse it if he were offered.

Edit #2: Preds could do it too, they're another team who is built for the immediate future and have the cap space. Not sure about their management though. Few GMs are willing to offer sheet and Jarmo is one of the few I know would.

::Checks notes::

Are we still talking about Lafreniere?

 

[Captain Mountain]

In the last 10 years, there have only been 2 offer sheets signed. One was a revenge for the other. They were rare and have only gotten more rare.

Money is going to be tight around the league. Most of the good teams have no cap space, or only have the cap space they need to re-sign their own players.

The Rangers can fit him at 4.2 mil if they have to (Goodrow should be moveable and can be bought out as a worst case scenario). Teams would need to go higher than that to make the Rangers not match.

Other GMs don't want to piss off the Rangers. As we've seen with Kane and others, the Rangers are a popular destination for players. Other GMs want to be on good terms with the Rangers. If a team did offer sheet Laf, you can bet your ass that James Dolan would retaliate.

A lot of people said last year that Kakko would sign an offer sheet. He didn't. The same will be true with Laf.

-Offersheets are rare because teams generally don't let themselves be in a position to cheap out on their top young players. They're also rare because players don't really sign them unless it makes sense for them money-wise.

-Money is not going to be so tight around the league that teams aren't going to be willing to make a play for the 2020 1st OA pick. Especially rebuilding teams who, you know, would be most interested in taking a chance on the 2020 1st OA pick.

-If the Rangers can fit Lafreniere at 4.2 mil, then they better be offering more than what ****ing Yakupov got almost a decade ago with a much lower cap ceiling. Because Laf would just sign it knowing it means he's back with Rangers at a fair price.

-The Rangers are not the only popular team in the NHL. And frankly, no team should bet that the threat will stop teams from taking a chance. Especially since it doesn't seem likely they'll be in a position to make an effective retaliatory offersheet for a while.

-Lafreniere is more valuable than Kakko was. If the Rangers offer him more than Kakko (like, say, something between 3-4 mil), then I doubt he'd sign an offersheet.

 

[GAGLine]

-Offersheets are rare because teams generally don't let themselves be in a position to cheap out on their top young players. They're also rare because players don't really sign them unless it makes sense for them money-wise.

-Money is not going to be so tight around the league that teams aren't going to be willing to make a play for the 2020 1st OA pick. Especially rebuilding teams who, you know, would be most interested in taking a chance on the 2020 1st OA pick.

-If the Rangers can fit Lafreniere at 4.2 mil, then they better be offering more than what ****ing Yakupov got almost a decade ago with a much lower cap ceiling. Because Laf would just sign it knowing it means he's back with Rangers at a fair price.

-The Rangers are not the only popular team in the NHL. And frankly, no team should bet that the threat will stop teams from taking a chance. Especially since it doesn't seem likely they'll be in a position to make an effective retaliatory offersheet for a while.

-Lafreniere is more valuable than Kakko was. If the Rangers offer him more than Kakko (like, say, something between 3-4 mil), then I doubt he'd sign an offersheet.

I'll tell you what. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. But I won't be wrong.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I believe the general going rate for an RFA 15-20 goal scorer is $3.5m-ish.

I think the comparables would be Zacha, JT Compher, Kirby Dach, Yamamoto, Connor Brown.


That said, with the threat of a $4.2m offersheet being only a 2nd round compensation I could see plenty of teams offering that (especially Montreal with Drouin coming off the books).

The greater risk is that a playoff team with cap space could potentially offer him $5+ and let the 'late' 1st round pick go, as he's a safe bet to be a 25+ goal scorer very soon.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'll tell you what. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. But I won't be wrong.

Wrong about what? That he'll sign an offersheet or that he'll get 2 x 2.5? Because I only think you're wrong about the latter. Unless Lafreniere is much worse than Rangers fans have portrayed.

 

[GAGLine]

Wrong about what? That he'll sign an offersheet or that he'll get 2 x 2.5? Because I only think you're wrong about the latter. Unless Lafreniere is much worse than Rangers fans have portrayed.

What sort of contract do you think he's getting?

 

[TGWL]

I believe the general going rate for an RFA 15-20 goal scorer is $3.5m-ish.

I think the comparables would be Zacha, JT Compher, Kirby Dach, Yamamoto, Connor Brown.


That said, with the threat of a $4.2m offersheet being only a 2nd round compensation I could see plenty of teams offering that (especially Montreal with Drouin coming off the books).

The greater risk is that a playoff team with cap space could potentially offer him $5+ and let the 'late' 1st round pick go, as he's a safe bet to be a 25+ goal scorer very soon.

Didn't Montreal trade their second round pick to Arizona or is there a condition on that? The window for an offersheet opens after the 2023 draft.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Didn't Montreal trade their second round pick to Arizona or is there a condition on that? The window for an offersheet opens after the 2023 draft.

Yeah.. i guess Montreal would be out if that's the case. But doesn't Restricted free agency open up after the draft (so the comp would be 2024)?


Also imagine Gorton wouldn't wanna piss off his old buddies.

If the Oilers could dump Yamamoto and Foegele, I'd wouldn't mind Laf at $4.2 for a 2nd. It would unfortunately be the same situation where he wouldn't get any PP time, to boost his numbers, but he would likely take ES reps with Drai and McDavid.

 

[TGWL]

Yeah.. i guess Montreal would be out if that's the case. But doesn't Restricted free agency open up after the draft (so the comp would be 2024)?


Also imagine Gorton wouldn't wanna piss off his old buddies.

If the Oilers could dump Yamamoto and Foegele, I'd wouldn't mind Laf at $4.2 for a 2nd. It would unfortunately be the same situation where he wouldn't get any PP time, to boost his numbers, but he would likely take ES reps with Drai and McDavid.

Yeah, it would be 2024. Montreal traded the 2024 second round pick to Arizona I thought.

These teams are out based on conditions that get met, no conditions on picks, or unless they get back their own pick.
Boston, Montreal, Colorado, Winnipeg, Florida, Philly, Tampa, Toronto, Vancouver, Washington, NJ.

 

[Captain Mountain]

What sort of contract do you think he's getting?

As I already wrote, 3.5 to 4 mil for 2 years. I can see 3 years if its closer to 4 mil. 3.5 mil for two is close to the cap percentage equivalent of Yakupov's 2nd contract, and I think Lafreniere is better/probably more highly viewed than Yakupov was then.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I believe the general going rate for an RFA 15-20 goal scorer is $3.5m-ish.

I think the comparables would be Zacha, JT Compher, Kirby Dach, Yamamoto, Connor Brown.


That said, with the threat of a $4.2m offersheet being only a 2nd round compensation I could see plenty of teams offering that (especially Montreal with Drouin coming off the books).

The greater risk is that a playoff team with cap space could potentially offer him $5+ and let the 'late' 1st round pick go, as he's a safe bet to be a 25+ goal scorer very soon.

Montreal doesn't have their 2024 2nd, Arizona does. I don't think Arizona would offersheet either because they care about real money. But Chicago, Buffalo, Carolina, Nashville, San Jose and Seattle make a ton of sense as offersheet threats.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Montreal doesn't have their 2024 2nd, Arizona does. I don't think Arizona would offersheet either because they care about real money. But Chicago, Buffalo, Carolina, Nashville, San Jose and Seattle make a ton of sense as offersheet threats.

If I were any of those teams, I would gladly spend a 2nd on Laf.

21 years old 1st overall pick who's likely a lock for 20+ goals?


I'm sure Laf sees Krieder and Panarin ahead of him on the depth chart and would likely prefer an offersheet from a team with less depth on the left.

Heck, as an Oiler fan if we could dump Yamamoto and Foegele, I'd way rather gamble on Lafreniere.

 

[Captain Mountain]

If I were any of those teams, I would spend a 2nd on Laf.

21 years old 1st overall pick who's likely a lock for 20+ goals?


I'm sure Laf sees Krieder and Panarin ahead of him on the depth chart and would likely prefer an offersheet from a team with less depth on the left.

I really don't think the Rangers will cheap out on Lafreniere and let it get to that point, but I kind of love the idea of a Chicago offer sheet.

Chicago traded Dach for a 13th OA pick and then get Lafreniere for a 2nd? That's a tidy bit of business. Plus I expect that some Hawks fans are a little upset that the Rangers squeezed them so hard for Kane (the last 1st OA pick made by Chicago), it would be kind of poetic getting the last 1st OA pick made by NYR in the off-season. That would be some good off-season drama.

 

[habsterr]

Young player that can pot 20+ goals is easily worth a 2nd round pick. I want soap opera drama with offer sheets in the offseason.

 

[Drake1588]

Bridge deal, two years, fairly low dollars.

 

[WarriorofTime]

.

 

[Guttersniped]

Just curious as to why you think he won't sign an offer sheet?

I feel like he is blocked by other forwards to get top production minutes to increase the value of his next contract. Hypothetically, why wouldn't he take a 4 year $4.2M offer from a team like Chicago who can offer him better money, more term, first-line minutes, all the PP time he can handle, and the ability to play with a Bedard/Fantilli, etc. At this point, he won't really get the opportunity to set himself up for a Cozens or Boldy-type contract while on the NYR.

Lafrenière might feel like he can earn a deal bigger than 4.2m in 2 years in NY.

So making slightly more in the short term isn’t that much of an enticement, particularly if it’s a 4 year deal. It feels like a team is hoping he turns into a bargain.

I don’t see how Chicago is a great idea either, that can tank his numbers. No one cares that much if he manages to grind out more points by playing endlessly on an unproductive team.

I’m not saying it will definitely work out great for him in NY but I don’t see how slightly more money with more term on a trash team is that tempting an alternative.

 

[Guttersniped]

They're going to need to pay him 5M+ or Jarmo is probably going to go after him like a fat kid to cake:

1. Tons of cap space
2. Desperate need of a center.
3. His roster isn't built to rebuild, half the guys are in their prime.
4. Team has some good players, so a future 1st might be late if they bounce back. Even a mid-round pick is unlikely to be as good as Laf.
5. Rangers are in an absolute cap crunch so they have few ways to match. Even if they do, it makes them vulnerable on guys like Miller and Chytil too
6. Jarmo gives zero f***s about etiquette. He will offer sheet a player if he thinks he can get them.

That is my 2 cents.

Some people are saying 4M, would the Rangers match 3 years 6.3M? Edit: 3 years 8.4M is only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. I doubt the Rangers can match that and I doubt Laf would refuse it if he were offered.

Edit #2: Preds could do it too, they're another team who is built for the immediate future and have the cap space. Not sure about their management though. Few GMs are willing to offer sheet and Jarmo is one of the few I know would.

Well sure, a Columbus offer for 6.3m with their 2023 1st, 2nd & 3rd going to the NYR would most like them get Lafrenière.

Don’t think it’s a good idea but sure.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Lafrenière might feel like he can earn a deal bigger than 4.2m in 2 years in NY.

So making slightly more in the short term isn’t that much of an enticement, particularly if it’s a 4 year deal. It feels like a team is hoping he turns into a bargain.

I don’t see how Chicago is a great idea either, that can tank his numbers. No one cares that much if he manages to grind out more points by playing endlessly on an unproductive team.

I’m not saying it will definitely work out great for him in NY but I don’t see how slightly more money with more term on a trash team is that tempting an alternative.

I mean, we've been told for 3 years now Lafreniere's numbers have been dragged down because he doesn't get PP time and he plays behind Panarin, Kreider, etc. Who are both signed long term with full NMCs. I don't think anyone would buy that staying in that spot for two years would be a clearer path to getting paid more later than, say, getting prime minutes in Chicago. And that's assuming that it would be coming from a team like Chicago, when teams like Buffalo, Seattle and Nashville can put him in a great spot to succeed.

Well sure, a Columbus offer for 6.3m with their 2023 1st, 2nd & 3rd going to the NYR would most like them get Lafrenière.

Don’t think it’s a good idea but sure.

View attachment 666711

The OS would be with 2024 picks, not 2023 picks.

 

[Guttersniped]

I mean, we've been told for 3 years now Lafreniere's numbers have been dragged down because he doesn't get PP time and he plays behind Panarin, Kreider, etc. Who are both signed long term with full NMCs. I don't think anyone would buy that staying in that spot for two years would be a clearer path to getting paid more later than, say, getting prime minutes in Chicago. And that's assuming that it would be coming from a team like Chicago, when teams like Buffalo, Seattle and Nashville can put him in a great spot to succeed.



The OS would be with 2024 picks, not 2023 picks.

Yeah, forgot that. Still a terrible idea. A team in dead isn’t trading an unprotected 1st.

 

[absolute garbage]

-Money is not going to be so tight around the league that teams aren't going to be willing to make a play for the 2020 1st OA pick. Especially rebuilding teams who, you know, would be most interested in taking a chance on the 2020 1st OA pick.

You started off by saying why offer sheets are rare and then said this. Makes no sense.

One big reason why offer sheets are rare is because generally teams that have more cap space, rebuilding teams as you said, don't want to trade their unprotected 1st round picks. For obvious reasons.

Really the only way you can make offer sheet work is by significantly overpaying the player. Good teams generally can't do that, as their cap is already used (that's why they are good). Bad teams often have the cap space to make a move like that, hoping the player will blossom with them, but that's not a gamble they want to take since they could easily be in running for the 1st overall pick the following year.

I mean Kotkaniemi is a good example of a situation where offer sheets happen. Carolina was a good team, they knew the 1st rounder would be a late one, and they also had the cap space to overpay. This isn't very common.