Value of: Alexis LaFreniere RFA Contract

[IranCondraAffair]

Well sure, a Columbus offer for 6.3m with their 2023 1st, 2nd & 3rd going to the NYR would most like them get Lafrenière.

Don’t think it’s a good idea but sure.

Nope, it would be 2024 1st and 2024 3rd as long as it it is 6.3M and gets accepted after the draft. Check the compensation table and the CBA

::Checks notes::

Are we still talking about Lafreniere?

He used to be a center, can be one again.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yeah, forgot that. Still a terrible idea. A team in dead isn’t trading an unprotected 1st.

Sure. There may be other teams in better situations that would consider it. It kind of depends if the Rangers are really pushing to get the AAV to be around Kakko's or Chytil's. Because at that point teams would be willing to test if they'd match a 4.2 mil offersheet.

You started off by saying why offer sheets are rare and then said this. Makes no sense.

One big reason why offer sheets are rare is because generally teams that have more cap space, rebuilding teams as you said, don't want to trade their unprotected 1st round picks. For obvious reasons.

Really the only way you can make offer sheet work is by significantly overpaying the player. Good teams generally can't do that, as their cap is already used (that's why they are good). Bad teams often have the cap space to make a move like that, hoping the player will blossom with them, but that's not a gamble they want to take since they could easily be in running for the 1st overall pick the following year.

I mean Kotkaniemi is a good example of a situation where offer sheets happen. Carolina was a good team, they knew the 1st rounder would be a late one, and they also had the cap space to overpay. This isn't very common.

Please actually read the context of the post. I was specifically talking about a 2nd round pick compensation offer sheet.

My whole point was that a 2 year 2-2.5 AAV contract is too low, it basically encourages teams to test if the Rangers are really that cheap. Offersheets probably aren't as rare as people think, signed offersheets are.

 

[pld459666]

Montreal would be the worst spot.

The pressure he would be under would be tremendous.

I'd hate to be in his shoes should he not improve at all.

 

[Hockeyholic]

4 years @ 5.5 million per season

 

[WarriorofTime]

Offer sheets being rare in a general sense doesn't mean they aren't appropriate in the right circumstances.

Biggest reason they are rare is because the team with control has incentive to work something out, generally to avoid the threat of the offer sheet. If the cap hit makes sense for "insert offer-sheeting team" it usually makes sense for "team with control" who also has the sunk cost fallacy or not, incentive to keep the player they spent their draft capital on and have been developing. The negotiations generally have to stall before an agent would even go around shopping for an offer sheet, and teams have their own resource constraints so they aren't going around kicking the tires on a bunch of hypothetical offer sheet candidates, when most times it just gets worked out anyways.

Reason number two (of lesser significance) is that you have to give up draft compensation if the offer sheet is accepted. This makes it something more akin to a trade. Since again, you have to be offering a contract the original team is for whatever reason not willing to accept, this can be a pretty big risk. Teams in rebuild mode are generally not punting away draft picks on speculative players, and teams that figure their pick to be late generally don't have cap space up the wazoo to spend on a speculative player.

Reason number three (also of lesser significance) is the cap hold. The period where the player has signed the offer sheet, but the team has not accepted or rejected (I think one week) is a hold of cap space that you don't know whether it will be accepted or not. The original team will likely drag it out for the maximum length of time because they have little reason not to. This means you are limited in the players that you can sign in the meantime while the cap hold is in effect.

Of course, that's all just generally speaking. In this case, I specifically asked "is he a prime offer sheet candidate?" essentially "are the circumstances unique enough so that this is a rare instance, in a general sense, where an offer sheet makes sense"

It seems to me that there is a serious argument that an offer sheet MIGHT make sense, if the Rangers are cap-strapped, Lafreniere is viewed highly around the League worth draft compensation but is currently in a blocked situation, and if the Rangers feel compelled to try and lowball him to fit him under the Cap.

Whether or not the Rangers would match any potential offer sheet is a different question.

 

[Galactico]

4 years @ 5.5 million per season

Since when a career 30pts scorer gets a 4 year 5.5M contract lol?

I wouldn’t go over 3.5M for 3 year for him max.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Since when a career 30pts scorer gets a 4 year 5.5M contract lol?

Habs paid that for Josh Anderson

 

[Voight]

Rs will ask 2-3 yrs at similar but he will counter w/1 yr pls mindful after upcoming season Trouba can be moved and most of his 8m effectively repurposed at that time.
LaF is best served by upping his point totals and further developing [esp his skating] and he is a fit on the kid line, does not have to overthink each situation, which is huge for him now.

So 1yr, 2ish

Kane will not be back.
I'm hoping if we give permission bread will look elsewhere w/Tara + PKane, and we can move most of his 11+m sooner than later.

Good luck with moving Panarin. He literally refused to sign with any other team because he wanted to play/be win Manhattan. Not to mention, still another 3 years left on his deal.

They're going to need to pay him 5M+ or Jarmo is probably going to go after him like a fat kid to cake:

1. Tons of cap space
2. Desperate need of a center.
3. His roster isn't built to rebuild, half the guys are in their prime.
4. Team has some good players, so a future 1st might be late if they bounce back. Even a mid-round pick is unlikely to be as good as Laf.
5. Rangers are in an absolute cap crunch so they have few ways to match. Even if they do, it makes them vulnerable on guys like Miller and Chytil too
6. Jarmo gives zero f***s about etiquette. He will offer sheet a player if he thinks he can get them.

That is my 2 cents.

Some people are saying 4M, would the Rangers match 3 years 6.3M? Edit: 3 years 8.4M is only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. I doubt the Rangers can match that and I doubt Laf would refuse it if he were offered.

Edit #2: Preds could do it too, they're another team who is built for the immediate future and have the cap space. Not sure about their management though. Few GMs are willing to offer sheet and Jarmo is one of the few I know would.

He isn't a centre tho.

Habs paid that for Josh Anderson

& to this day its a bad contract.

 

[Voight]

Montreal would be the worst spot.

The pressure he would be under would be tremendous.

I'd hate to be in his shoes should he not improve at all.

Agreed. The second he fails the media is going to be after him like bees on honey.

It won't help that they'll hype him up like crazy.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Since when a career 30pts scorer gets a 4 year 5.5M contract lol?

I wouldn’t go over 3.5M for 3 year for him max.

You'd be paying more for potential given age, draft pedigree, analytics than performance to date.

 

[ole ole]

Yeah, it would be 2024. Montreal traded the 2024 second round pick to Arizona I thought.

These teams are out based on conditions that get met, no conditions on picks, or unless they get back their own pick.
Boston, Montreal, Colorado, Winnipeg, Florida, Philly, Tampa, Toronto, Vancouver, Washington, NJ.

Habs own the Avs 2nd rd pick in the Lehk trade. We are still in as a possible.

Montreal doesn't have their 2024 2nd, Arizona does. I don't think Arizona would offersheet either because they care about real money. But Chicago, Buffalo, Carolina, Nashville, San Jose and Seattle make a ton of sense as offersheet threats.

But they own the Avs 2nd which can be used.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

He isn't a centre tho.

He was.

 

[Sparkleton]

Habs own the Avs 2nd rd pick in the Lehk trade. We are still in as a possible.


But they own the Avs 2nd which can be used.

I thought you had to offer sheet with your own picks, not ones acquired in trades.

 

[MessierII]

2 x 2.5

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

Habs own the Avs 2nd rd pick in the Lehk trade. We are still in as a possible.


But they own the Avs 2nd which can be used.

You can only use your own draft picks for offer sheet compensation.

 

[pld459666]

Since when a career 30pts scorer gets a 4 year 5.5M contract lol?

I wouldn’t go over 3.5M for 3 year for him max.

Offer sheets by nature have to be enticing enough to get a player to leave a winning situation for a situation that is not yet there and may be 3-4 years away.

Rangers can probably get to 3.5 per, your offersheet has to be such that the Rangers can't match and enticing enough to get Lafreniere to WANT to sign it.

They are never market value offers. Ever.

 

[Flan the incredible]

Sure offer sheet a player who has a crazy owner with endless money. Dolan would offer sheet every good RFA your team has just to increase what you would normally sign guys for. Bridge deals.....forget about it.

This is why offer sheets don't happen.

 

[Alluckks]

30 threads every year for different players talking about offersheets and they never happen lol

 

[JUSTGIROUXIT]

Posts of him signing 2 years for 2 million is bonkers. As others have mentioned - Who he's playing behind, his lack of PP time, etc. If you're his agent are you advising him to take 2x2?? If that's the offer he'd be better off sitting out and demanding a trade.

When you look around the league and see comparable players in terms of age/potential and the contracts that are being handed out you have to be somewhat realistic, just because he doesn't fit in with the Rangers cap plans at a certain $ amount, doesn't mean he wouldn't elsewhere.

If I had to guess I would estimate somewhere around 4-4.5 over 2 years which I feel would be fair on both sides considering the market.

 

[bernmeister]

Good luck with moving Panarin. He literally refused to sign with any other team because he wanted to play/be win Manhattan. Not to mention, still another 3 years left on his deal. ...

I didn't say 1 yr to LaF b'c we control bread's situation.
I said it is factually true Trouba can be moved -- with most of his cap repurposed -- after next season.
That being the case, rather than go low automatically for the extra yr or 2, he can go Aaron Judge and bet on himself on a single yr deal.
Rs may prefer cheaper longer but can live with the can being kicked b'c it is effectively show me.

What I said about bread was specifically as to the poster I was answering saying he had a feeling that there would be room to extend Kane.
Not gonna happen.

Also not gonna happen?
Rs offering Panarin a new contract, let alone anything even remotely close to what he is currently getting. Cap won't allow it, any other issue aside.
For this reason, I think bread doesn't wait to the last second and agrees to a trade; howev, it will be on his terms and timetable.

 

[hawksrule]

I would expect something like this.

And yes....primed for an offersheet.

I could see a team, gamble and offer him a long term 6.3 million dollar contract. I'd do that gambling a 1st and 3rd in a heart beat.

Thought exercise: get past the draft buzz take the name off the back of the jersey and what do you offer? I guarantee it’s nowhere close to this.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Carolina is looking for a power forward. they could repeat the KK offer sheet here with little 2nd thought.

 

[majormajor]

In the last 10 years, there have only been 2 offer sheets signed. One was a revenge for the other. They were rare and have only gotten more rare.

Money is going to be tight around the league. Most of the good teams have no cap space, or only have the cap space they need to re-sign their own players.

The Rangers can fit him at 4.2 mil if they have to (Goodrow should be moveable and can be bought out as a worst case scenario). Teams would need to go higher than that to make the Rangers not match.

Other GMs don't want to piss off the Rangers. As we've seen with Kane and others, the Rangers are a popular destination for players. Other GMs want to be on good terms with the Rangers. If a team did offer sheet Laf, you can bet your ass that James Dolan would retaliate.

A lot of people said last year that Kakko would sign an offer sheet. He didn't. The same will be true with Laf.

I know it's been very rare but there's never been a team as vulnerable to offer sheets as the Rangers are right now. It's possible that they get in a position where they can't keep all of Laf, KAM, and Chytil.

And the Rangers would not be a team to be especially worried about pissing off. They won't have cap space for a long time to come.

 

[waitin425]

Thought exercise: get past the draft buzz take the name off the back of the jersey and what do you offer? I guarantee it’s nowhere close to this.

I've done that exercise. I've watched a fair bit of Laf. He is middling on a very deep team. Lack of PP time. Scoring a decent amount of goals with limited ice time. I know I'm putting a lot of faith in him...but pairing him up with Marty as head coach and I think he could realistically reach 30+30 in short order. I'd pay 6.3 for a 30 goal 60 point winger. Especially one who has untapped potential.

The risk....of course there is risk. Could be the next Drou Drou

 

[hawksrule]

I've done that exercise. I've watched a fair bit of Laf. He is middling on a very deep team. Lack of PP time. Scoring a decent amount of goals with limited ice time. I know I'm putting a lot of faith in him...but pairing him up with Marty as head coach and I think he could realistically reach 30+30 in short order. I'd pay 6.3 for a 30 goal 60 point winger. Especially one who has untapped potential.

The risk....of course there is risk. Could be the next Drou Drou

Giving him 6.3 would be lunacy. Giving him 6.3 and also giving up a 1st and 3rd to do so is bat shit crazy.

He’s just not that good. Slow, bad skater, can’t create for himself, not physical for his size. Worth maybe 2.5x2. If I’m the rangers I’d be ecstatic if another team offer-sheeted him.