Value of: Alexis LaFreniere RFA Contract

[The Gr8 Dane]

Love to see the offer sheet back in play!

 

[CanadienShark]

You're assuming he peaked at 21 and wouldnt produce more in a top-6 role with better linemates and PP2 time.

He would be gifted those things on most other teams.

You're assuming he's better than he's actually proven.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Wait for the Rangers to sign Tarasenko and Kane and then offer sheet him via the KK way. Habs could be trading a potential 2024 lottery pick though. But if we add Dubois and we have more growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Guhle, Xhekaj, and then Lafreniere, we are likely a bubble playoff team.

Rangers hear of a potential offer sheet and rather talk trade? Maybe we offer Gurianov and a future on top? I have to admit, Gurianov still has potential as a former 12th OA pick. He has a great shot and good size/skating. He's been producing with the Habs.

 

[rangersfansince08]

Smart teams dodged that dud.

Which team passed on him?

 

[Habs Halifax]

You're assuming he peaked at 21 and wouldnt produce more in a top-6 role with better linemates and PP2 time.

He would be gifted those things on most other teams.

Lets be real here. He could break out into what he was projected to be or he could be a 0.5 - 0.75 pts/game type (at best). Right now, he's around 0.42 pts/game so far and this is his best season yet right? 32 pts with 14 goals in 66 games.

It's reasonable to assume he improves as he gets closer to prime years, but it's also reasonable to ponder about if he don't improve.

 

[Guttersniped]

Wait for the Rangers to sign Tarasenko and Kane and then offer sheet him via the KK way. Habs could be trading a potential 2024 lottery pick though. But if we add Dubois and we have more growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Guhle, Xhekaj, and then Lafreniere, we are likely a bubble playoff team.

Rangers hear of a potential offer sheet and rather talk trade? Maybe we offer Gurianov and a future on top? I have to admit, Gurianov still has potential as a former 12th OA pick. He has a great shot and good size/skating. He's been producing with the Habs.

An unsigned 26 year old Gurianov with a 2.9m QO is a pretty major piece, are you sure you want to let that slip through your fingers?

 

[Habs Halifax]

An unsigned 26 year old Gurianov with a 2.9m QO is a pretty major piece, are you sure you want to let that slip through your fingers?

I'm aware of the $2.9M QO circumstance. I'm also aware of his age and development. He has changed teams and we are seeing some of his potential. Not a big sample size but with MSL and a different approach, he's preforming well for us so far. He has good skating/size/shot and there is potential for him to improve in his age 25-30 years.

5 pts with 4 goals in 9 games. Much better than I expected. Lets see where he finishes at in the remaining games.

Spare me with your belittle approach. I'm aware he can fade. It's not impossible he reaches his 12th OA potential in his age 25-30 years.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm aware of the $2.9M QO circumstance. I'm also aware of his age and development. He has changed teams and we are seeing some of his potential. Not a big sample size but with MSL and a different approach, he's preforming well for us so far. He has good skating/size/shot and there is potential for him to improve in his age 25-30 years.

5 pts with 4 goals in 9 games. Much better than I expected. Lets see where he finishes at in the remaining games.

Spare me with your belittle approach. I'm aware he can fade. It's not impossible he reaches his 12th OA potential in his age 25-30 years.

He’s a reclamation project with no trade value, that’s what I was pointing out.

Either he signs for less than his QO with the Habs, does that with another team as a UFA or goes back to Russia to play in the KHL.

The trade for him was kind of fun but the Habs’ got a trial run not a trade asset. No one is paying for those RFA signing rights.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He’s a reclamation project with no trade value, that’s what I was pointing out.

Either he signs for less than his QO with the Habs, does that with another team as a UFA or goes back to Russia to play in the KHL.

The trade for him was kind of fun but the Habs’ got a trial run not a trade asset. No one is paying for those RFA signing rights.

I'm aware of the circumstances. But $2.9M for one more season to see if he can reach potential in more sample size is not that bad of a situation. Maybe it's bad for contenders with no cap space but not really with the bottom half of the NHL. So no, If he trends well with the Habs, I don't think he has "no trade value". And it's possible the Habs offer him something around $2M for 2 years and he has those 2 years to prove himself more before he turns UFA. I think he's enjoying his time with MSL and the Habs but we will have competition for spots next year. Guys will get healthy and we have more youth coming. All I will say is he has performed very well for us in 9 games. Not something to completely brush under the rug.

Move it back to Lafreniere.

 

[TGWL]

Wait for the Rangers to sign Tarasenko and Kane and then offer sheet him via the KK way. Habs could be trading a potential 2024 lottery pick though. But if we add Dubois and we have more growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Guhle, Xhekaj, and then Lafreniere, we are likely a bubble playoff team.

Rangers hear of a potential offer sheet and rather talk trade? Maybe we offer Gurianov and a future on top? I have to admit, Gurianov still has potential as a former 12th OA pick. He has a great shot and good size/skating. He's been producing with the Habs.

This would be after the draft, so unless you win the lottery this season, which would be twice in 5 years since the new rule in 2022, I believe, you're not giving up any potential lottery pick in 2024 (outside of it potentially being a high pick).

I believe Gurianov has some untapped potential but we're not trading Laf for him as the main piece right now. If Gurianov keeps scoring he's clearing going to want the QA or close ot it, in which case it makes no sense.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This would be after the draft, so unless you win the lottery this season, which would be twice in 5 years since the new rule in 2022, I believe, you're not giving up any potential lottery pick in 2024 (outside of it potentially being a high pick).

I believe Gurianov has some untapped potential but we're not trading Laf for him as the main piece right now. If Gurianov keeps scoring he's clearing going to want the QA or close ot it, in which case it makes no sense.

This is gullible type thinking but I'll play along.

* I'm not sure if our 1st OA pick last year counts as a lottery win. We finished last. Do you know for sure?

* It would be a potential offer sheet after the draft yes. And maybe we actually do trade for Dubois on draft day. So that improves our roster. Then consider more growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Guhle, Slaf, Xhekaj and a more healthy roster.

* Without injuries this year, I think we would be looking at a pick from 8-12 or 10-15. This group is very resilient and most Habs fans thought we would choke and die... especially with all the injuries. Not sure if we pick 4 or 8 to be honest.

* Are we worried about trading a potential lottery pick for 2024 if we offer sheet Lafreniere? Sure we are but I do wonder about the Habs direction if our youth keeps taking steps forward and we add Dubois to the mix.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

This would be after the draft, so unless you win the lottery this season, which would be twice in 5 years since the new rule in 2022, I believe, you're not giving up any potential lottery pick in 2024 (outside of it potentially being a high pick).

we did not win the lottery last year we finished last

 

[MadeUpName]

1 year x $6.3 million offer sheet from Carolina. They can easily afford the Cap space. They have no LW depth. It screws their biggest competitor. And they have a good track record developing these types.

Lafreniere fits into the mold of player that Carolina has been chasing. Tkachuk, Marchment and Meier all play a similar - but much more refined - game.

 

[danyhabsfan]

Pretty sure the Rangers match that, though I'm not familiar enough with their cap structure. Also I think you can only offer sheet with a 1 year term.

All the offer sheet except maybe Kotkaniemi were over 1 year

Like Shea Weber 14 years offer sheet


You can offer sheet up to 7 years but the average for the compensation has un upper limit of 5 years.

So you can sign player X to a 7 years 35M (5M average=1st and 3rd return) but with the 5 years limit the average is now 7M and the return would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Golden_Jet]

we did not win the lottery last year we finished last

They still won it, finishing last gives a 18.5 % chance.
Unless with the new changes , they made a caveat of finish last and win lottery, doesn’t count on 2/5 rule.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

You're assuming he's better than he's actually proven.

Lets be real here. He could break out into what he was projected to be or he could be a 0.5 - 0.75 pts/game type (at best). Right now, he's around 0.42 pts/game so far and this is his best season yet right? 32 pts with 14 goals in 66 games.

It's reasonable to assume he improves as he gets closer to prime years, but it's also reasonable to ponder about if he don't improve.

Let him bet on himself. Give him $4.2m AAV at minimal term.

Recently the Habs bet big on Kirby Dach who isn't in much of a different scenario, and sofar it seems like a great bet. There's really not a whole lot difference except the compensation is a 2nd rounder (Not a 1st and 2nd like you guys gave up).

If he doesn't improve, they lost a 2nd rounder. Obviously the teams higher in the standings benefit more from this.

Rangers already spent the time and resources getting Laf the reps in the NHL and sheltered for 15mins a night.

If he proves he's worth his qualifying offer, you extend him. If not you let him walk as a UFA.
Spending a 2nd round pick on recent 1st overall isn't a bad gamble to make. I would have done the same for Kirby Dach as well.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

They still won it, finishing last gives a 18.5 % chance.
Unless with the new changes , they made a caveat of finish last and win lottery, doesn’t count on 2/5 rule.

you need to move up to win the lottery

 

[ML16]

Pending RFA, still doesn't get much powerplay time, plays on a productive third line that produces well; at even stength. 21 years old, 198 career games played with 45 goals and 39 assists for 84 points.

What type of contract does he sign this off-season? Is he a potential offer-sheet candidate for rebuilding teams?

I don’t think the risk of a Lafrenière offer-sheet would come from rebuilding teams; rather mostly from contending teams, which can more easily afford spending a late 1st round pick as compensation.

In that regard, the Hurricanes’ approach with Kotkaniemi is the blueprint of such strategy.

 

[Ligue]

we did not win the lottery last year we finished last

I think what happenned is the Habs won the lottery last year but did not move up in the draft so that lottery win doesnt count toward the maximum of 2 wins in 5 years. But yes, the Habs won the lottery last year.

 

[MadeUpName]

I don’t think the risk of a Lafrenière offer-sheet would come from rebuilding teams; rather mostly from contending teams, which can more easily afford spending a late 1st round pick as compensation.

In that regard, the Hurricanes’ approach with Kotkaniemi is the blueprint of such strategy.

Largely because the player has to actually want to sign the offer sheet. I doubt any player is going to sign a Kotkaniemi-style 1 year offer sheet with a bad team. Too much risk to bottom out your earning potential.

 

[TGWL]

we did not win the lottery last year we finished last

Is that how it works? I mean, their ball still popped out for the 2022 draft. Does it only count as lottery if you move up as a lottery win? I really don't remember the ruling on that so I'd have to look.

Edit: I just looked it up and depending where you read it from the ruling on that can be taken either way. I'll try to dig around in a bit unless somebody here has the actual ruling on it.

Edit 2: Most have it worded with only applying to moving up and associated to the team not the pick (obviously), so we'll just go with that which makes the 2024 more important for Montreal. It's a lottery win but not a lottery win on the 5 year count sheet.

 

[Golden_Jet]

you need to move up to win the lottery

Didn’t answer the question
Your team still has to win the lottery to remain in first, like it’s always been.

It is possible the league would not count that on the 2/5 new rule.

Do you have a link that says it doesn’t count as part of 2/5.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Didn’t answer the question
Your team still has to win the lottery to remain in first, like it’s always been.

It is possible the league would not count that on the 2/5 new rule.

Do you have a link that says it doesn’t count as part of 2/5.

yes the league doesnt count it you need to move up to win lottery thats how the league sees it

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Is that how it works? I mean, their ball still popped out for the 2022 draft. Does it only count as lottery if you move up as a lottery win? I really don't remember the ruling on that so I'd have to look.

Edit: I just looked it up and depending where you read it from the ruling on that can be taken either way. I'll try to dig around in a bit unless somebody here has the actual ruling on it.

Edit 2: Most have it worded with only applying to moving up and associated to the team not the pick (obviously), so we'll just go with that which makes the 2024 more important for Montreal. It's a lottery win but not a lottery win on the 5 year count sheet.

yea i remember reading the rules about it last year when we won the 1st overall because i knew we were still gonna be ass in 2023 it was a big topic on the habs board also

rule says since we finished last the league doesnt count it has a lottery win

 

[CanadienShark]

Let him bet on himself. Give him $4.2m AAV at minimal term.

Recently the Habs bet big on Kirby Dach who isn't in much of a different scenario, and sofar it seems like a great bet. There's really not a whole lot difference except the compensation is a 2nd rounder (Not a 1st and 2nd like you guys gave up).

If he doesn't improve, they lost a 2nd rounder. Obviously the teams higher in the standings benefit more from this.

Rangers already spent the time and resources getting Laf the reps in the NHL and sheltered for 15mins a night.

If he proves he's worth his qualifying offer, you extend him. If not you let him walk as a UFA.
Spending a 2nd round pick on recent 1st overall isn't a bad gamble to make. I would have done the same for Kirby Dach as well.

Believe me, I'd "overpay" just to pry him away and hope for the best, but he hasn't proven much at all.