Value of: Alexis Lafreniere Offer Sheet

[RasmusAndersson]

I don't think any teams would do it. Cause you basically don't know what you have. KK for example had much more proven himself(giving him 6 is still extremely dumb though). You basically could be throwing money in a lake.

I don’t know, I think there would be at least a few teams willing to take a risk on him for a one or two year deal. Anaheim or Arizona quickly come to mind

 

[DeltaSwede]

To NYR:
Nils Hoglander
Jonathan Lekkerimaki
Tanner Pearson
2nd Round Pick 2024

To VAN:
Alexis Lafreniere
Barclay Goodrow

 

[Garbageyuk]

That’s funny. Who wants a .5 PPG recent first overall who is 21 produces 2nd line numbers with bottom-6 minutes?

He doesn’t though. This past season:

•He ranked #202 in total points
•He ranked #236 in p/60
•He ranked #261 in p/gp

This shows the opposite of what you’re saying. It indicates that his production doesn’t even justify the ice time he gets.

Even with the Rangers coddling him and giving him favourable minutes and matchups, he couldn’t break 20 goals while also being poor defensively.

 

[Siludin]

Would probably take something in excess of the Kotkaniemi deal. Probably at least $5.5m on the offer sheet, and Rangers prob match.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

He doesn’t though. This past season:

•He ranked #202 in total points
•He ranked #236 in p/60
•He ranked #261 in p/gp

This shows the opposite of what you’re saying. It indicates that his production doesn’t even justify the ice time he gets.

Even with the Rangers coddling him and giving him favourable minutes and matchups, he couldn’t break 20 goals while also being poor defensively.

This past season he tied for 164th in total points among forwards. Given that there's 192 top-6 forwards, he produced at a 2nd line rate. His p/60 ahead of guys like Debrincat, Compher (just signed ~5x5), Newhook (just went for basically 2 firsts). And he's 21, not on PP1. Saying that 0.48 P/GP without 2nd unit PP time and 3rd line ES minutes at age 21 isn't worth at least a 2nd is just silly, ignoring his potential.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

To NYR:
Nils Hoglander
Jonathan Lekkerimaki
Tanner Pearson
2nd Round Pick 2024

To VAN:
Alexis Lafreniere
Barclay Goodrow

Uhhh, no

 

[Garbageyuk]

This past season he tied for 164th in total points among forwards. Given that there's 192 top-6 forwards, he produced at a 2nd line rate. His p/60 ahead of guys like Debrincat, Compher (just signed ~5x5), Newhook (just went for basically 2 firsts). And he's 21, not on PP1. Saying that 0.48 P/GP without 2nd unit PP time and 3rd line ES minutes at age 21 isn't worth at least a 2nd is just silly, ignoring his potential.

His cohorts in p/60 and p/gp are all 3rd liners. Whatever mental gymnastics you try to do to justify that doesn’t change anything.

And I didn’t say it wasn’t worth a 2nd. I’d give a mid-late 2nd for him.

 

[Synergy27]

This past season he tied for 164th in total points among forwards. Given that there's 192 top-6 forwards, he produced at a 2nd line rate. His p/60 ahead of guys like Debrincat, Compher (just signed ~5x5), Newhook (just went for basically 2 firsts). And he's 21, not on PP1. Saying that 0.48 P/GP without 2nd unit PP time and 3rd line ES minutes at age 21 isn't worth at least a 2nd is just silly, ignoring his potential.

Laf has been anything but good, but I appreciate what you said about Newhook. Laf is better than Newhook in every category, is a year younger, and still has the cache of being a recent first overall which means something around the league no matter how much some want to deny it.

The Newhook trade represents the low end of an expected return for Laf who frankly is just not getting traded anyway.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

His cohorts in p/60 and p/gp are all 3rd liners. Whatever mental gymnastics you try to do to justify that doesn’t change anything.

And I didn’t say it wasn’t worth a 2nd. I’d give a mid-late 2nd for him.

Which makes sense, because he played.... 3rd line minutes?? At age 21? He's worth more than a mid-late second lol, but keep hating. I'm not even a Rangers fan at all, you're just very off if you don't think he has more value than Newhook for example.

 

[Kocur26]

He isn’t worth an offer sheet - he’s slow in every aspect of the game and has no shot.

The Rangers are saddled with a bust the size of Radek Bonk.

Don’t read the Rangers board for any objectivity on this player .

Lafrenniere has been outplayed by the likes of Tyler motte frank vatrano and others

 

[RasmusAndersson]

View attachment 725544

Laf has been anything but good, but I appreciate what you said about Newhook. Laf is better than Newhook in every category, is a year younger, and still has the cache of being a recent first overall which means something around the league no matter how much some want to deny it.

The Newhook trade represents the low end of an expected return for Laf who frankly is just not getting traded anyway.

Exactly. Not saying Laf has been that good so far, just that he's easily a middle-6 forward at age 21, and that is worth much more than that other poster suggested. Late 1st/early 2nd at minimum.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Which makes sense, because he played.... 3rd line minutes?? At age 21? He's worth more than a mid-late second lol, but keep hating. I'm not even a Rangers fan at all, you're just very off if you don't think he has more value than Newhook for example.

Do you not understand how his p/60 and p/gp are counterintuitive to what you’re trying to claim? I have to assume you do and that you are just desperate to hold onto your narrative.

The narrative that you and other NYR fans like to push is that Lafreniere is better than his stats, and that he’s being held back by a lack of minutes and opportunity.

The data doesn’t support this. In fact, it shows the opposite. The fact that he ranks higher in total points than he does in p/60 and p/gp indicates that he is being coddled and given minutes and opportunity that his play doesn’t merit, and that the team would be better served allocating those minutes elsewhere. He doesn’t provide any utility (faceoffs, physicality, defense), so this is the only logical conclusion.

 

[Garbageyuk]

He isn’t worth an offer sheet - he’s slow in every aspect of the game and has no shot.

The Rangers are saddled with a bust the size of Radek Bonk.

Don’t read the Rangers board for any objectivity on this player .

Lafrenniere has been outplayed by the likes of Tyler motte frank vatrano and others

NYR fans should be hoping and praying he becomes Radek Bonk. Bonk was a 60-70 point C in his prime who played borderline elite defense. I seriously doubt Lafreniere ever gets anywhere near 60 or 70 points, even without the defensive aspect.

 

[Dfence033]

Hahaha. Thank you for taking it so seriously. This thread is ‘designed’ to discuss the possibility of an unlikely offer sheet. If you actually took the time to read anything I said, I’m obviously not saying Laf sucks lol. Why so angry?

For the record Goodrow would very likely require a top prospect or a 1st to move. No team wants 4 years of a 4th liner over 3 mil. Love the homerism tho.

If you actually read anything (instead of just replying blindly) you’d know most people agree the Rangers would match an offer under 6, but that it would put the Rangers in a tough position. Even if it costs a 2nd to move Goodrow (which is likely not enough) then it would still be worth it for another team to offer sheet him to handcuff the Ramgers


Love that you come on a hockey forum to passive aggressively inform everyone else that unlikely events are unlikely. Your contributions are much appreciated

I read the entire thread, and I'm not angry. Thanks for both the insult and assumption, though. Also super happy to be a part of a thread that the OP even admits is "unlikely." For the record: I'd put the odds well beyond "unlikely," as in: unless a team offers something incomprehensible as an offer sheet (7x$6M+), I doubt Laf even signs it, and even at that amout, the Rangers nearly certainly match.

Not every "unlikely" thought that pops into someone's head is deserving of a thread to "discuss," which has basically just been you shitposting and claiming everyone disagreeing is "angry." You weren't looking for a discussion, you were looking for people to argue with or for people to say Laf isn't worth an offersheet because he's so bad and the Rangers need to add a 1st+ to dump horrible Goodrow.

Edit: if you were actually looking for a discussion, you'd have used one of the 100 other threads from the last few months alone already discussing the same idea.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Do you not understand how p/60 and p/gp are relevant to what you’re trying to say? I have to assume you do and that you are just desperate to hold onto your narrative.

The narrative that you and other NYR fans like to push is that Lafreniere is better than his stats, and that he’s being held back by a lack of minutes and opportunity.

The data doesn’t support this. In fact, it shows the opposite. The fact that he ranks higher in total points than he does in p/60 and p/gp indicates that he is being coddled and given minutes and opportunity that his play doesn’t merit, and that the team would be better served allocating those minutes elsewhere. He doesn’t provide any utility (faceoffs, physicality, defense), so this is the only logical conclusion.

Trying to use points/GP to rank him among forwards and then ignoring his time on ice? lolol. Do you get how that works? Ya is P/60 is ranked in the 200's, indicating high-end 3rd line production. Which makes sense, since he is a good 3rd liner/low end 2nd liner already at age 21...

I'm not saying he's better than his stats and that he doesn't have an opportunity - I'm saying he is currently a high-end 3rd liner/ low-end 2nd liner already, at age 21.... You think that his P/60 and P/GP being that of a high-end third liner is bad for a 21 year old? If you think that isn't worth a late 1st+ then you're clearly just biased lol. Any team would offer a late 1st+ for that any day of the week.

Not saying he's some elite talent and is gonna suddenly explode. But if you want a 21 year old middle-6 winger with potential... and maybe play him with guys that score more than 50 points, he very well might do the same.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Trying to use points/GP to rank him among forwards and then ignoring his time on ice? lolol. Do you get how that works? Ya is P/60 is ranked in the 200's, indicating high-end 3rd line production. Which makes sense, since he is a good 3rd liner/low end 2nd liner already at age 21...

I'm not saying he's better than his stats and that he doesn't have an opportunity - I'm saying he is currently a high-end 3rd liner/ low-end 2nd liner already, at age 21.... You think that his P/60 and P/GP being that of a high-end third liner is bad for a 21 year old? If you think that isn't worth a late 1st+ then you're clearly just biased lol. Any team would offer a late 1st+ for that any day of the week.

Not saying he's some elite talent and is gonna suddenly explode. But if you want a 21 year old middle-6 winger with potential... and maybe play him with guys that score more than 50 points, he very well might do the same.

Thank you.

And no, no teams would offer a 1st for him when you can just sign better players for cheap every summer.

And yes, I do think him barely being a 3rd liner is bad for highly touted former 1st overall pick. Kotkaniemi, for example, is a better player than him, and look at all the shit he gets.

Like I said, the data shows that Laf is being coddled and his numbers would be even worse if he was given ice time based on merit instead of his draft pedigree.

This guy is a career 3rd liner.

 

[Bouboumaster]

4M per year for Lafrebust lol


GM that does that needs to be canned

 

[Synergy27]

Thank you.

And no, no teams would offer a 1st for him when you can just sign better players for cheap every summer.

And yes, I do think him barely being a 3rd liner is bad for highly touted former 1st overall pick. Kotkaniemi, for example, is a better player than him, and look at all the shit he gets.

Like I said, the data shows that Laf is being coddled and his numbers would be even worse if he was given ice time based on merit instead of his draft pedigree.

This guy is a career 3rd liner.

So either Newhook is better or the Habs overpaid for him? Which one?

 

[Garbageyuk]

So either Newhook is better or the Habs overpaid for him? Which one?

I’m not sure what Newhook has to do with this, but yes, the Habs overpaid. Nearly everyone agrees on that.

Also yes, Laf is very marginally better than Newhook. Congrats lol.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I read the entire thread, and I'm not angry. Thanks for both the insult and assumption, though. Also super happy to be a part of a thread that the OP even admits is "unlikely." For the record: I'd put the odds well beyond "unlikely," as in: unless a team offers something incomprehensible as an offer sheet (7x$6M+), I doubt Laf even signs it, and even at that amout, the Rangers nearly certainly match.

Not every "unlikely" thought that pops into someone's head is deserving of a thread to "discuss," which has basically just been you shitposting and claiming everyone disagreeing is "angry." You weren't looking for a discussion, you were looking for people to argue with or for people to say Laf isn't worth an offersheet because he's so bad and the Rangers need to add a 1st+ to dump horrible Goodrow.

Edit: if you were actually looking for a discussion, you'd have used one of the 100 other threads from the last few months alone already discussing the same idea.

So you saying ‘is this just another thread to make the point that Laf sucks’ wasn’t passive aggressive, considering I didn’t say that? Lol. I didn’t search for past threads and wanted to have a discussion about what the Rangers would do if Laf was offer sheeted. Just a fun discussion. Not trying to fight anyone except for the people who come in here with their defenses up and have a bone to pick with everyone they disagree with.

I for one don’t come into threads saying ‘for the record, this is what will happen’ and shit on everyone else’s opinion. And it’s a hockey rumors thread, it’s exactly the place to share these thoughts. Why are you so mad I started a thread on a hockey forum to discuss the unlikely but possible situation that he gets offer sheeted?

Thank you.

And no, no teams would offer a 1st for him when you can just sign better players for cheap every summer.

Just so wrong lol, a team recently paid a 1st for Chiarot and gave a 1st AND a 2nd for a worse, older player than Newhook. But alright, keep hating. It’s funny to watch for everyone who isn’t so biased against him.

And yes, I do think him barely being a 3rd liner is bad for highly touted former 1st overall pick. Kotkaniemi, for example, is a better player than him, and look at all the shit he gets.

Like I said, the data shows that Laf is being coddled and his numbers would be even worse if he was given ice time based on merit instead of his draft pedigree.

This guy is a career 3rd liner.

He’s 21 lol. How many guys from his draft year haven’t even made the league? Just stop hating on this kid lol what did he ever do to you. He’ll be a 2nd line winger by next year (if not the year after) and it’ll be nice to revisit this discussion then.

 

[Garbageyuk]

So you saying ‘is this just another thread to make the point that Laf sucks’ wasn’t passive aggressive, considering I didn’t say that? Lol. I didn’t search for past threads and wanted to have a discussion about what the Rangers would do if Laf was offer sheeted. Just a fun discussion. Not trying to fight anyone except for the people who come in here with their defenses up and have a bone to pick with everyone they disagree with.

Just so wrong lol, a team recently paid a 1st for Chiarot and gave a 1st AND a 2nd for a worse, older player than Newhook. But alright, keep hating. It’s funny to watch for everyone who isn’t so biased against him.

He’s 21 lol. How many guys from his draft year haven’t even made the league? Just stop hating on this kid lol what did he ever do to you. He’ll be a 2nd line winger by next year (if not the year after) and it’ll be nice to revisit this discussion then.

Calling him a 3rd liner (which he clearly is) is hating? Ok then. Been hearing the “next season” narrative regarding Laf for a while now.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Calling him a 3rd liner is hating? Ok then.

it absolutely is lol. Nobody in their right mind would consider him maxed out given that he’s 21 and already a high end 3rd liner. Unless they’re biased against him for some weird, personal reason. And then go on to argue the point using stats from his 21 yr old season to prove he’s never getting better… do u see the problem here?

 

[Garbageyuk]

it absolutely is lol. Nobody in their right mind would consider him maxed out given that he’s 21 and already a high end 3rd liner. Unless they’re biased against him for some weird, personal reason.

It isn’t bias. Read the thread. My position regarding him is based on historical precedent.

•There has never been a forward drafted 1st overall, who went on to become a top-6 NHL player in terms of production, that wasn’t already producing like one by year 3 post draft. It has never happened. Lafreniere would be the first such player in NHL history, if he is to become a top-6 player.

Sounds crazy? Reality is sometimes crazy. The guys of Lafreniere’s draft pedigree, who produced like him, ended up as busts or career bottom six players at best.

Therefore, it’s quite logical to predict that Lafreniere is overwhelmingly likely to be a career bottom-six player, if we’re going by tangible things such as stats and historical precedent, and not our desires and feelings.

 

[Guffman]

For a player that so many people on this board say is a bust there is certainly a ton of threads for offer sheets and trades. Its almost as if fans realize he has been on the 3rd line with next to no powerplay time and put in the right situation could excel. So weird

Sooo… are you suggesting the Rangers are misusing their 1OA? Did he not get an opportunity but simply failed to seize it?

Compared to where he was drafted and all the “can’t miss“ hype, I think his production to date is very disappointing.

 

[Miro4Norris]

This should absolutely be done even though it seems to hurt many Rangers fans in this thread. Why wouldn't some team like Anaheim do it? They could even offer 6x1 like Carolina did with Kotkaniemi if they can burn that much money for Gudas and Killorn