Value of: Alexis Lafreniere Offer Sheet

[KevinRedkey]

Calling him a 3rd liner (which he clearly is) is hating? Ok then. Been hearing the “next season” narrative regarding Laf for a while now.

Last year (min 41 games played):
136th in 5-on-5 points (average 2nd liner territory)
212th in 5-on-5 points per 60 (great 3rd liner territory)

Calling him a "fringe 2nd liner" is probably fair given his numbers last year.
Calling him a career 3rd liner (I asume that's what you're implying - maybe I'm wrong?) is certainly on the very pessimistic side of things.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Last year (min 41 games played):
136th in 5-on-5 points (average 2nd liner territory)
212th in 5-on-5 points per 60 (great 3rd liner territory)

Calling him a "fringe 2nd liner" is probably fair given his numbers last year.
Calling him a career 3rd liner (I asume that's what you're implying - maybe I'm wrong?) is certainly on the very pessimistic side of things.

Trying to call him a “fringe 2nd liner” based strictly on his 5-on-5 production ranking is a flawed approach because he doesn’t face the other teams’ top lines and pairings. That’s called cherry picking. And even if you do that, it doesn’t help your argument much at all.

The data as a whole indicates he is a 3rd liner currently. Historical precedent tells us he is likely to remain one.

I know it’s a bitter pill to swallow given his draft position, but life, and the draft, is full of disappointments.

 

[Michoulicious]

I'd give him 4.25 x 3 no problem and pony up the 2nd rounder.

Kid is very talented, just needs a new start.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Trying to call him a “fringe 2nd liner” based strictly on his 5-on-5 production ranking is a flawed approach because he doesn’t face the other teams’ top lines and pairings. That’s called cherry picking. And even if you do that, it doesn’t help your argument much at all.

The data as a whole indicates he is a 3rd liner currently. Historical precedent tells us he is likely to remain one.

I know it’s a bitter pill to swallow given his draft position, but life, and the draft, is full of disappointments.

How is it cherry picking? what stats do you suggest we use to quantify it then?


I'm not even a Rangers fan, so it's nothing to swallow for me. lol

 

[Synergy27]

I’m not sure what Newhook has to do with this, but yes, the Habs overpaid. Nearly everyone agrees on that.

Also yes, Laf is very marginally better than Newhook. Congrats lol.

Newhook is relevant because the return he got was real. We are talking about 21 year old kids here who are still growing and have already produced at a passable level in the league.

Your valuation of these kids is incorrect.

 

[Flan the incredible]

Sooo… are you suggesting the Rangers are misusing their 1OA? Did he not get an opportunity but simply failed to seize it?

Compared to where he was drafted and all the “can’t miss“ hype, I think his production to date is very disappointing.

Its pretty clear you don't watch the Rangers or you would know they have a 50 goal scorer in Kreider and Panarin who are not going to get demoted to 3rd line for an 18 year old rookie. LW is by far their strongest position.

You can say they are misusing him but on any other lotto team who isn't a playoff team he probably gets 1st line and PP time.

 

[bernmeister]

Newhook is relevant because the return he got was real. We are talking about 21 year old kids here who are still growing and have already produced at a passable level in the league.

Your valuation of these kids is incorrect.

Yes and if I am not mistaken he spent zero or close to zero time in the a when it should have been apparent early on his skating was waaay subpar, now it is just barely par, but par is sufficient.
Howev, to get an accurate picture, gotta recognize last yr + a quarter dif from first yr + 3/4

 

[RasmusAndersson]

It isn’t bias. Read the thread. My position regarding him is based on historical precedent.

•There has never been a forward drafted 1st overall, who went on to become a top-6 NHL player in terms of production, that wasn’t already producing like one by year 3 post draft. It has never happened. Lafreniere would be the first such player in NHL history, if he is to become a top-6 player.

Sounds crazy? Reality is sometimes crazy. The guys of Lafreniere’s draft pedigree, who produced like him, ended up as busts or career bottom six players at best.

Therefore, it’s quite logical to predict that Lafreniere is overwhelmingly likely to be a career bottom-six player, if we’re going by tangible things such as stats and historical precedent, and not our desires and feelings.

You want to talk about cherry picking stats? How about only comparing the guy to other first overall picks and ignoring the hundreds and hundreds of other players with similar numbers at age 21 who have gone on to become top-6 forwards? Looking at other players who have played around 200 career games and have a P/gp average near Laf's 0.42:

1. Teuvo Teravainnen - 0.43 P/gp over first 196 career games. Current P/GP career average - 0.68 (56 point pace per 82 games), including 65 in 77 last season. Career third liner? No
2. Pavel Zacha - 0.38 P/GP over first 201 career games. Current P/GP career average - 0.52 (42 point pace), including 57 pts this past season at age 26. Career third liner? No
3. Adrian Kempe - 0.38 P/GP over first 187 career games. Current P/GP career average: 0.54 (45 point pace), including 41 goals and 67 pts this past season. Career third liner? No

Some other similar guys: Beauvillier, Fiala, Vrana.

Do you want more examples of players with similar (or worse) numbers through their first 200 career games who went on to become top-6 (or top-line) players? Or are you still convinced that 'historical precedent' shows this guy is a career third liner?

Like man, nobody is guaranteeing he becomes a superstar, we all just realize how ridiculous it is to consider him to be a career third liner who is completely maxed out based on 3 seasons as a bottom-six LW with no top-unit PP time.

 

[Habsrule]

I think you can eliminate Montreal from the list of potential offer sheet teams.

Lafreniere is from Quebec so everyone will think that he automatically wants to go to the Habs. Well the Habs don’t have their second round pick in next years draft. Winnipeg does. It was originally sent to Arizona for Dvorak and that pick was sent to LA for Durzi which in turn went to Winnipeg as part of the PLD trade.

That leaves the option of 4 million with the compensation of a second round pick off the table. Then for the Habs sake they can’t up their price to a first and a third. There is a very good possibility that the Habs draft in the top 10 next year. That means that it would be a lottery pick and an unprotected one at that. Habs will not give up that.

 

[Garbageyuk]

You want to talk about cherry picking stats? How about only comparing the guy to other first overall picks and ignoring the hundreds and hundreds of other players with similar numbers at age 21 who have gone on to become top-6 forwards? Looking at other players who have played around 200 career games and have a P/gp average near Laf's 0.42:

1. Teuvo Teravainnen - 0.43 P/gp over first 196 career games. Current P/GP career average - 0.68 (56 point pace per 82 games), including 65 in 77 last season. Career third liner? No
2. Pavel Zacha - 0.38 P/GP over first 201 career games. Current P/GP career average - 0.52 (42 point pace), including 57 pts this past season at age 26. Career third liner? No
3. Adrian Kempe - 0.38 P/GP over first 187 career games. Current P/GP career average: 0.54 (45 point pace), including 41 goals and 67 pts this past season. Career third liner? No

Some other similar guys: Beauvillier, Fiala, Vrana.

Do you want more examples of players with similar (or worse) numbers through their first 200 career games who went on to become top-6 (or top-line) players? Or are you still convinced that 'historical precedent' shows this guy is a career third liner?

Like man, nobody is guaranteeing he becomes a superstar, we all just realize how ridiculous it is to consider him to be a career third liner who is completely maxed out based on 3 seasons as a bottom-six LW with no top-unit PP time.

So you parsed the draft db and realized I’m right lmao. And now you’re claiming it’s somehow unfair for me to compare Lafreniere to his peers.

I compare him to other 1st overall picks because they all often share a similar development path, they face similar expectations, and they are often more NHL ready than other players in their draft. That isn’t cherry picking in slightest. Lafreniere was indeed touted as NHL ready when he was drafted.

The problem with him is that he physically matured early and enjoyed an advantage over his competition in juniors because of it. Then, when he made it to the NHL, that advantage was gone, and he lacks the intensity and competitive drive to adapt, which is why he’s such a different player than everyone expected. That lack of intensity and drive is why he posted an all goose egg stat line in the playoffs this year too.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Yes and if I am not mistaken he spent zero or close to zero time in the a when it should have been apparent early on his skating was waaay subpar, now it is just barely par, but par is sufficient.
Howev, to get an accurate picture, gotta recognize last yr + a quarter dif from first yr + 3/4

This is a complete fabrication on your part. There weren’t any concerns at all regarding his skating at the time of the draft. If you’re going to post BS like this, where is the proof? Link to a source prior to the draft that mentioned his skating as a weakness.

 

[KevinRedkey]

This is a complete fabrication on your part. There weren’t any concerns at all regarding his skating at the time of the draft. If you’re going to post BS like this, where is the proof? Link to a source prior to the draft that mentioned his skating as a weakness.

Took me about 15 seconds on Google. You should try it.

Skating Grade: 55
If I had to pick a weakness in Lafreniere’s game, this would be the area to focus on, but I still give it an above-average grade. I say “weakness” because, in watching a lot of Lafrenière’s games, I find his game can lack pace and speed at times. He doesn’t hit the line with speed on a lot of his zone entries and the play dies on his stick.

Pronman’s scouting report: What the Rangers are getting in Alexis Lafreniere

Breaking down the potential No. 1 pick's games, with thoughts from the player himself and his coach.

theathletic.com

But I'm sure you'll ignore it and spew more nonsense. No doubt. lol

 

[Garbageyuk]

Took me about 15 seconds on Google. You should try it.

Skating Grade: 55
If I had to pick a weakness in Lafreniere’s game, this would be the area to focus on, but I still give it an above-average grade. I say “weakness” because, in watching a lot of Lafrenière’s games, I find his game can lack pace and speed at times. He doesn’t hit the line with speed on a lot of his zone entries and the play dies on his stick.

Pronman’s scouting report: What the Rangers are getting in Alexis Lafreniere

Breaking down the potential No. 1 pick's games, with thoughts from the player himself and his coach.

theathletic.com

But I'm sure you'll ignore it and spew more nonsense. No doubt. lol

Nonsense? I’ve done nothing but post verifiable fact, along with Lafreniere’s stats. Apparently that’s offensive to NYR fans.

And I said before the draft. That piece is from a columnist after NHL training camp, when we had the benefit of seeing him against NHL competition. Not to mention, the guy clarifies that he doesn’t consider it a weakness, per se, but an area for Laf to work on. That’s a stark contrast from what the other poster was claiming.

 

[Bubbles]

I proposed this in the Canucks forum but got laughed out. His former agent is the AGM here.

But the Canucks are over the cap by $2,480,417.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Nonsense? I’ve done nothing but post verifiable fact, along with Lafreniere’s stats. Apparently that’s offensive to NYR fans.

And I said before the draft. That piece is from a columnist after NHL training camp, when we had the benefit of seeing him against NHL competition. Not to mention, the guy clarifies that he doesn’t consider it a weakness, per se, but an area for Laf to work on. That’s a stark contrast from what the other poster was claiming.

Ok fine - maybe I'm being too hard on you.

But I still disagree with your assesement of Laf as I believe it's on the extremely pessimistic side of things. I find it odd that you don't at least acknowledge that. My "Laf" is Byfield, and I understand my view on him is extremely pessimistic for example.

I for one believe Laf is going to carve out a career as a decent 2nd liner that may end up getting some PP2 time if he gets traded eventually. I don't think he's going to score 80 points but I also don't think he's going to top out at 39 either.

 

[Nanuuk]

I know offer sheets are incredibly rare, but it seems that the Rangers are very very tight against the cap and would be incredibly vulnerable to an offer sheet of 1 year, 4 mil for Laf.

According to Capfriendly they have 6.175 in cap space with 21 players signed and K’andre Miller and Laf still unsigned. Even assuming Miller gets a bridge deal at around 4 mil per year ( I could easily see him getting up to 5-6 mil), that would leave only 2.175 for Laf. Even if they commit to a 22 man roster, that would leave 3 mil for Laf.

If a team were to take a risk and offer sheet him to 1 year at 4.25 mil (would only cost a 2nd as compensation), would the Rangers not be absolutely screwed? It seems to me that their only disposable asset is Goodrow, and I don’t see anyone taking on that contract. They could look at moving Trouba or Trocheck, but that seems like it would require significant cap gymnastists and would be very difficult to pull off given their expensive contracts with term left.

I know it’s very unlikely, but I think this would be a prime offer sheet opportunity for a team with cap space who wants to take a shot on a high-potential young player who is buried on the Rangers depth chart. And I bet Laf would jump at the politburo to sign an offer sheet for that exact reason.

How about Hanifin for Lefreniere plus a pcik or prospect?

 

[RasmusAndersson]

How about Hanifin for Lefreniere plus a pcik or prospect?

I would love that, I just think the main reason NYR would move him is cap space so i’m not sure if they could afford Hanifin. But I definitely like that from a Flames perspective.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

So you parsed the draft db and realized I’m right lmao. And now you’re claiming it’s somehow unfair for me to compare Lafreniere to his peers.

I compare him to other 1st overall picks because they all often share a similar development path, they face similar expectations, and they are often more NHL ready than other players in their draft. That isn’t cherry picking in slightest. Lafreniere was indeed touted as NHL ready when he was drafted.

The problem with him is that he physically matured early and enjoyed an advantage over his competition in juniors because of it. Then, when he made it to the NHL, that advantage was gone, and he lacks the intensity and competitive drive to adapt, which is why he’s such a different player than everyone expected. That lack of intensity and drive is why he posted an all goose egg stat line in the playoffs this year too.

Ah, the classic, 100% arbitrary ‘he lacks drive’ argument.

Comparing him to only first overall picks and ignoring evidence of other players who also took longer to develop is also a completely arbitrary cut-off.

Insisting he’s definitely gonna be a career third liner and ignoring evidence of statistically comparable players at the same age who have since become top-line forwards just clearly shows the flaw in your argument. Players develop at different rates, even players drafted around the same spot, and the 6 examples of comparable guys is clear evidence that he could easily develop into a top-6 guy in the next 2 years. But at this point all you’re doing is setting yourself up to look absolutely ridiculous in 1 or 2 years when he inevitably gets more mature, gets stronger, and continues to develop and gets a chance with better offensive players. No point in arguing with subjective bs like ‘he lacks intensity’ so let’s just revisit in 2 years.

 

[Rob Sense]

This past season he tied for 164th in total points among forwards. Given that there's 192 top-6 forwards, he produced at a 2nd line rate. His p/60 ahead of guys like Debrincat, Compher (just signed ~5x5), Newhook (just went for basically 2 firsts). And he's 21, not on PP1. Saying that 0.48 P/GP without 2nd unit PP time and 3rd line ES minutes at age 21 isn't worth at least a 2nd is just silly, ignoring his potential.

more like 2 seconds...31 and 37

 

[Dfence033]

So you saying ‘is this just another thread to make the point that Laf sucks’ wasn’t passive aggressive, considering I didn’t say that? Lol. I didn’t search for past threads and wanted to have a discussion about what the Rangers would do if Laf was offer sheeted. Just a fun discussion. Not trying to fight anyone except for the people who come in here with their defenses up and have a bone to pick with everyone they disagree with.

I for one don’t come into threads saying ‘for the record, this is what will happen’ and shit on everyone else’s opinion. And it’s a hockey rumors thread, it’s exactly the place to share these thoughts. Why are you so mad I started a thread on a hockey forum to discuss the unlikely but possible situation that he gets offer sheeted?

Did I say YOU said that? No, I didn't. But it's clearly the point. You didn't have to "search" very hard considering there is literally another Montreal and Laf proposal on the main page (just like every week when 2-3 more pop up). That's my point. If you were interested in a discussion around your "unlikely" scenario, you could have spent 30 seconds looking at the titles of the top 10 threads on the main page and gone into one of the others with the same Habs fans doing the same things they are in your thread.

Also, "unlikely" is a overstatement. There have been 2 signed and unmatched offer sheets since the locked out season (Penner and Kotkaniemi). That's 2 in 18 seasons, one of which was deemed a horrific overpayment the moment it was announced, which is what it would take.

Again, I'm not angry at all, nor am I "shitting on everyone's opinions," but thanks for again assuming and insulting, once again providing evidence you weren't looking for an honest discussion.

 

[NotOpie]

If you want Lafreniere, you don't start there...you start w/KA Miller. Offer him 3 X $6.4 million and really put NYR on the spot. If they match, then you offer Laf 3 X $4.2 million. In both cases, the kids end up arbitration eligible RFAs. Contracts could be structured w/signing bonuses and larger last year $$$.

Almost positive NYR matches on Miller and that puts them in a damn near untenable position on Laf. If they don't match on Miller, then you get a premier, young defender for a 1st and a 3rd. I think that puts the Rangers in such a difficult position given the NMCs they've got.....and dealing Goodrow still wouldn't give them enough cap space to sign Laf in the above scenario.

 

[Chrispy]

I don't think any teams would do it. Cause you basically don't know what you have. KK for example had much more proven himself(giving him 6 is still extremely dumb though). You basically could be throwing money in a lake.

The 6 was part of the acquisition cost. Carolina wanted to get Kotkaniemi after Montreal refused to trade him, so they made a high offer in the 1st+3rd bracket ($6.166M was the cutoff in 2021.)

Now they have Kotkaniemi locked up for most of his prime at $4.82M. Which Montreal might not have matched, but Carolina couldn't sign him for 8 years anyway, and anything over 5 years would have probably required more compensation than 1st+3rd.

Is Lafrenriere worth a $6.4M offer sheet? I'm not sure. I'd probably look at a 1 year $4.2M offer sheet, see if he accepts it, and see what the Rangers have to do to make it fit rather than lose him for a 2nd round pick.

There was plenty of discussion on the Canes board of Carolina looking at a Laf offer sheet given a lot of cap space this off-season, but most of that has been taken up now by Orlov, Bunting, and the pending trade for TDA at 50%. Carolina didn't make the offer sheet on Kotkaniemi until late in the off-season after trying to sign UFAs and trying to trade for Kotkaniemi. They seem to have landed some of their priorities this off-season so I doubt we see an offer sheet from Carolina.

 

[5 Minute Major]

Seems to me like the NHLPA would sue the owners claiming collusion in not putting out offer sheets on RFA’s. Maybe they can’t?

 

[CanadienShark]

Why lol

No means no.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Who even wants to give up a 1st and 3rd for a bust