Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[ReddestRum]

Is there no middle ground between twirly fancy stuff and top draft picks who barely appear to be NHLers?

I mean right now Vatrano & Copp are 10x the player Laf is so he's not in there top 6

Sadly it's not a stretch to see Gallant playing some of the guys we never wanna see again in a playoff game.

I honestly think the majority here who are hash on Laffy are so because, as always, we want more from him and the only way to do that (& earn more ice) is to play better regardless of his line-mates.

I know I'm harsh because we lucked out in the #2 and #1 picks, back to back! US! For a little bit there I felt like we stole the Oilers luck snatching up high draft picks. Then it turns out, in the grand scheme of our team, those picks just turned out to be average. Maybe even a little less than average as far as the points go. They really are our future and the years will start going by very quickly. The season is one thing, but this playoffs will test the mettle of this team and we're going to get a very good look at what we're worth.

 

[Psycho for Perreault]

You're all missing the forest for the trees.

Let Kakko and Laf get line 3 minutes and not put up the numbers. We've got other guys to do that. They can learn to be responsible players, get a cheap 2nd contract, and then get the ice time and take the next step. If they were dominating now, we'd be a bigger threat THIS year, and then screwed come contract time. I'm coming around to their situations. Just don't hide them with 5 minutes to go. Give them that experience.

 

[romba]

He's been getting plenty of chances in the slot the past few weeks and getting too fine and ripping wide. Need to get those on goal. Occasionally wide is fine, but it's been pretty consistent.

 

[Scor]

I don't understand why people are so concerned with Laf being a ppg player right now. The only ones that seem to be so concerned are fans of teams that hate us. He can just play his game and not worry about being the guy for now. We've got our stars right now. Maybe become worried 2 or 3 years from now if he hasn't developed.

 

[rangersfansince08]

I don't understand why people are so concerned with Laf being a ppg player right now. The only ones that seem to be so concerned are fans of teams that hate us. He can just play his game and not worry about being the guy for now. We've got our stars right now. Maybe become worried 2 or 3 years from now if he hasn't developed.

Because if he (and Kakko) was anything close to what he was supposed to be we would be cup favorites this year and the next three. it pisses me off that isn't the case.

 

[duhmetreE]

Because if he (and Kakko) was anything close to what he was supposed to be we would be cup favorites this year and the next three. it pisses me off that isn't the case.

If he and Kakko were anything close to being top players, we wouldn't be able to afford them or major cuts would have to happen.

The hope is, we lock them up to cheaper bridge deals and they take off under those contracts. Having a really strong 3-4 year window with our current vet group.

 

[rangersfansince08]

If he and Kakko were anything close to being top players, we wouldn't be able to afford them or major cuts would have to happen.

The hope is, we lock them up to cheaper bridge deals and they take off under those contracts. Having a really strong 3-4 year window with our current vet group.

Is that better than the fear they will never take off?

 

[ReddestRum]

If he and Kakko were anything close to being top players, we wouldn't be able to afford them or major cuts would have to happen.

The hope is, we lock them up to cheaper bridge deals and they take off under those contracts. Having a really strong 3-4 year window with our current vet group.

Bruh. We have 7 UFA contracts for the upcoming season that we don't have to re-up. Sure, we'll take a few of those, but I see the rest going away. Kakko will be out of his ELC and I am ever so curious to see what we pay him.

 

[Scor]

If he and Kakko were anything close to being top players, we wouldn't be able to afford them or major cuts would have to happen.

The hope is, we lock them up to cheaper bridge deals and they take off under those contracts. Having a really strong 3-4 year window with our current vet group.

Exactly. We are in such a good position right now and them not living up to the hype may benefit us in the long run.

I know lots of people were hoping we would have our own McDavid or Matthews out the gate, but that doesn't seem to be the case. We can't get frustrated about their progress right now when as a team we are playing great.

Also, I think people need to pay a little more attention to Laf when he plays. He makes more plays when he has the puck then people realize. Just nobody on the team can seem to finish for him. Although, he does need to shoot more, take less dumb penalties, and be less lazy and more aware at times on defense.

 

[bhamill]

Because I am oh so helpful I decided to take the two minutes to look up brief changes in shot rate. I am looking at forwards with 1000+ minutes between 2018-2019 to 2019-2020 and then looking at how they did in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 provided they played at least 1000 minutes. 28 forwards met this criteria in both sets.

I am looking at forwards with shot rates between 5.0 and 6.0 in 2018-2020 because that falls within the range Lafreniere is.

2018-2020 - 28 forwards. Low: 5.12. High 6.0. Average 5.64.

2020-2022 - Same 28 forwards, Low 4.3. High 7.52. Average 5.71. Only two players were above 7.0 (Iafallo and Ryan Strome.). 14 players went up. 14 players went down.

For reference league average is around 7.1.

The logic of "A decrease in sh% will be offset be an increase in shot rate" does not hold. Players do not generally go from well below average volume shooters to well above average.

This isn't a group of exclusively bad players. There is Evgeny Kuznetsov, Elias Pettersson, Mats Zuccarello, T.J Oshie, Nick Schmaltz, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Strome included among the 28.

You may now proceed to tell me how Lafreniere is different than all the other 28 players in the group because he is young and a former #1 overall pick.

Why should anyone tell you that when you already know it. Haha. You are so helpful at demonstrating that all your stats don’t preclude it happening. And you think a snide remark means we shouldn’t factor that in.
Also you are talking about shot rate,per 60 minutes I assume. Not per game. So if Lafreniere stays exactly the same shot rate per 60 mins but simply plays more minutes per game then he will have more shots per game.
Did you also factor in that if he plays 80 games on the first line he would get more chances per minute? I’m sure you only Included players that went from bad linemates to good line mates in your thorough research.
Did you also compare only players that went from about zero power play time to let’s say MODERATE power play time. Do players get more opportunities per minute if they get more power play time?
And yes, being a young developing player might just be a real factor. Do players in their D+1-2 seasons normally not get more chances in their D+5-6? So that’s it. Players dont get more chances as they develop and sharpen their skills? Whatever their shot rate is in their first two seasons is their ceiling? Hahahaha. Wow.
Or did you just go looking for factors that would exclusively support your already decided upon conclusion? Seems that’s what you did. It’s terrible methodology. I really don’t think your as good at this stuff as you think.
have a good one!

 

[bhamill]

So. Inspired by the thorough research of others... I glanced at some stats.
Lafreniere’s shooting percentage is about 16 this year. The league average seems to usually be around 10. That’s average. 10.
Lets say Laf falls to average 10%. Let’s say his ice time goes up to a Strome like 18:30. That’s a 30% increase in ice time. So if he drops by about 30% in shooting percentage but is getting about 30% more shots, if shots per remained the same which I doubt will be the case with a developing 20 year old player. That would offset somewhat. Now throw in the fact that most 20 year olds are NOT finished products, and that power play time certainly helps you get chances, as does playing consistently with top six linemates as opposed to bottom six, and we are looking at a far prettier picture than some would seem to conclude.

 

[SA16]

Why should anyone tell you that when you already know it. Haha. You are so helpful at demonstrating that all your stats don’t preclude it happening. And you think a snide remark means we shouldn’t factor that in.
Also you are talking about shot rate,per 60 minutes I assume. Not per game. So if Lafreniere stays exactly the same shot rate per 60 mins but simply plays more minutes per game then he will have more shots per game.
Did you also factor in that if he plays 80 games on the first line he would get more chances per minute? I’m sure you only Included players that went from bad linemates to good line mates in your thorough research.
Did you also compare only players that went from about zero power play time to let’s say MODERATE power play time. Do players get more opportunities per minute if they get more power play time?
And yes, being a young developing player might just be a real factor. Do players in their D+1-2 seasons normally not get more chances in their D+5-6? So that’s it. Players dont get more chances as they develop and sharpen their skills? Whatever their shot rate is in their first two seasons is their ceiling? Hahahaha. Wow.
Or did you just go looking for factors that would exclusively support your already decided upon conclusion? Seems that’s what you did. It’s terrible methodology. I really don’t think your as good at this stuff as you think.
have a good one!

I cannot bother to respond to someone so clueless anymore so this will be my last. You have your narrative and will make unsubstantiated claims to attempt to support it.

Moderately comical that you’ve started commenting about powerplay shots when that has nothing to do with 5v5 shot rate. If you don’t understand then when people say “shot rate” that essentially always means 5v5 shots/60 that furthers my point of your being clueless. Same goes for using general sh% instead of breaking it down by game state.

And yes we all understand if shots/60 remains constant and TOI goes up then shots/game will go up. That is basic arithmetic. That is also not the player doing anything to shoot more. That is a coaching decision.

Being a low volume shooter doesn’t even mean you can’t be a good goal scorer. You know who has a very low shot rate? 50 goal scorer Leon Draisaitl. But he’s a very good shooter, gets a ton of minutes, and scores and shoots like crazy on the pp

 

[bhamill]

I cannot bother to respond to someone so clueless anymore so this will be my last. You have your narrative and will make unsubstantiated claims to attempt to support it.

Moderately comical that you’ve started commenting about powerplay shots when that has nothing to do with 5v5 shot rate. If you don’t understand then when people say “shot rate” that essentially always means 5v5 shots/60 that furthers my point of your being clueless. Same goes for using general sh% instead of breaking it down by game state.

And yes we all understand if shots/60 remains constant and TOI goes up then shots/game will go up. That is basic arithmetic. That is also not the player doing anything to shoot more. That is a coaching decision.

Being a low volume shooter doesn’t even mean you can’t be a good goal scorer. You know who has a very low shot rate? 50 goal scorer Leon Draisaitl. But he’s a very good shooter, gets a ton of minutes, and scores and shoots like crazy on the pp

Dude. You are cherry picking and you assume no one is going to call you on it. And working backward from a conclusion. This is TERRIBLE methodology.
I didn't say any of the things you are disputing. Where did I limit my comments to 5v5? You're arguing with yourself. I simply said that while his shooting percentage will probably come down his TOI per game will likely go up, his linemates will probably get better, and he will likely get PP time. How does any of that indicate anything BUT coaches decision (besides the shooting percentage of course)? And having better linemates and PP time may very well make his shooting rate rise. Just seems logical, no? In addition he's NOT a finished product. You're insane if you think hes hit his ceiling halfway through his D+2 at 120 or so games and not even 1000 minutes of NHL ice time. Hahahaha. Look at Keirder's numbers on shot rate and shooting percentage from last year and this. Sure it's probably an outlier but it just shows you can't say the things with certainty that you are trying to say. Not with an established veteran and CERTAINLY not with a developing 20 year old.
I mean these SEEM as basic as basic gets, but you don't seem to understand it or just are being purposefully obtuse. Anyway, go on, hurl some more condescending insults and grasp at straws. It's a good look for you and I'm not going to waste any more time on this. I'll tell you what you can @ me in three years when you've been proven right. Hahaha. I won't hold my breath.

 

[IDvsEGO]

So. Inspired by the thorough research of others... I glanced at some stats.
Lafreniere’s shooting percentage is about 16 this year. The league average seems to usually be around 10. That’s average. 10.
Lets say Laf falls to average 10%. Let’s say his ice time goes up to a Strome like 18:30. That’s a 30% increase in ice time. So if he drops by about 30% in shooting percentage but is getting about 30% more shots, if shots per remained the same which I doubt will be the case with a developing 20 year old player. That would offset somewhat. Now throw in the fact that most 20 year olds are NOT finished products, and that power play time certainly helps you get chances, as does playing consistently with top six linemates as opposed to bottom six, and we are looking at a far prettier picture than some would seem to conclude.

Except that’s bad methodology. Just because the league averages 10% doesn’t mean that Laf will. 16% is not an unrealistic shooting percentage for a talented player.
Unsustainable is 25+

 

[bhamill]

Except that’s bad methodology. Just because the league averages 10% doesn’t mean that Laf will. 16% is not an unrealistic shooting percentage for a talented player.
Unsustainable is 25+

Agreed. But that's why I made it a supposition for the sake of argument: "let's say." I have no crystal ball, I'm not claiming certainties. My apologies if I made it seem like I was. It's just likely possibilities and erring on the side of caution.

 

[SA16]

Dude. You are cherry picking and you assume no one is going to call you on it. And working backward from a conclusion. This is TERRIBLE methodology.
I didn't say any of the things you are disputing. Where did I limit my comments to 5v5? You're arguing with yourself. I simply said that while his shooting percentage will probably come down his TOI per game will likely go up, his linemates will probably get better, and he will likely get PP time. How does any of that indicate anything BUT coaches decision (besides the shooting percentage of course)? And having better linemates and PP time may very well make his shooting rate rise. Just seems logical, no? In addition he's NOT a finished product. You're insane if you think hes hit his ceiling halfway through his D+2 at 120 or so games and not even 1000 minutes of NHL ice time. Hahahaha. Look at Keirder's numbers on shot rate and shooting percentage from last year and this. Sure it's probably an outlier but it just shows you can't say the things with certainty that you are trying to say. Not with an established veteran and CERTAINLY not with a developing 20 year old.
I mean these SEEM as basic as basic gets, but you don't seem to understand it or just are being purposefully obtuse. Anyway, go on, hurl some more condescending insults and grasp at straws. It's a good look for you and I'm not going to waste any more time on this. I'll tell you what you can @ me in three years when you've been proven right. Hahaha. I won't hold my breath.

Let us go through several of your comments one step at a time.

1. Dude. You are cherry picking and you assume no one is going to call you on it. And working backward from a conclusion. This is TERRIBLE methodology.

This is incorrect. I compiled a list of players between 5 and 6 shots/60 and looked at how they did the following years. Their shot rates remained relatively constant. That is the conclusion. I did not know what the result would be the first time I did this. When I did it yesterday of course I already knew it. I already did it.

2. I didn't say any of the things you are disputing. Where did I limit my comments to 5v5?

The problem is you did not limit your comments to 5v5. I stated I was referring to 5v5 shot rates. That is also the standard when people refer to shot rates, points/60 etc. You then started talking about shots/game and Strome's 18:30/game which is an all situation stats. PP results are not relevant to the discussion. You also mentioned Laf's 16% sh% as not being out of line when his 5v5 sh% is not 16. It is 20.0%

3. his linemates will probably get better

His second most common linemate this year is Mika Zibanejad. His third is Chris Kreider.

4. And having better linemates and PP time may very well make his shooting rate rise.

Once again, his PP time has nothing to do with how often he shoots at 5v5. I don't know how much of an effect better linemates will have. I'm not going to pretend I do. I have not looked into that like I have the others. What I can tell you is so far in his career his shot rate is a whopping 0.16 shots/60 higher with Zibanejad than Chytil. At 14 mins/game of 5v5 play that corresponds to 3 shots different over the course of a season. 14 mins/game 5v5 is 1 minute less than Crosby usually gets so it is a reasonable enough number.

5. In addition he's NOT a finished product. You're insane if you think hes hit his ceiling halfway through his D+2 at 120 or so games and not even 1000 minutes of NHL ice time.

Never said he was. I expect him to become more noticeable on the ice and make more plays. I don't expect his shot rate to spike drastically. He wasn't even a huge volume shooter in junior so I don't know why you'd expect him to be one in the NHL. The only year he was among the leaders in shots in junior was his last year when he was 18 years old, the best player in the league, and I'm sure got a ton of ice time and PP time (they don't publish those numbers as far as I know).

6. Look at Keirder's numbers on shot rate and shooting percentage from last year and this. Sure it's probably an outlier but it just shows you can't say the things with certainty that you are trying to say.

Kreider is taking 9.04 shots/60 this year. From 2016 to 2020 he was between 8.09 and 8.73 every year. That's pretty well in line with his norms and yes a bit better. Last year I have no idea what his deal was he only took 5.29 shots/60. It's also a lot easier to shoot less (age-related decline/playing hurt) than to suddenly change your game and start shooting more.

 

[bhamill]

Let us go through several of your comments one step at a time.

1. Dude. You are cherry picking and you assume no one is going to call you on it. And working backward from a conclusion. This is TERRIBLE methodology.

This is incorrect. I compiled a list of players between 5 and 6 shots/60 and looked at how they did the following years. Their shot rates remained relatively constant. That is the conclusion. I did not know what the result would be the first time I did this. When I did it yesterday of course I already knew it. I already did it.

2. I didn't say any of the things you are disputing. Where did I limit my comments to 5v5?

The problem is you did not limit your comments to 5v5. I stated I was referring to 5v5 shot rates. That is also the standard when people refer to shot rates, points/60 etc. You then started talking about shots/game and Strome's 18:30/game which is an all situation stats. PP results are not relevant to the discussion. You also mentioned Laf's 16% sh% as not being out of line when his 5v5 sh% is not 16. It is 20.0%

3. his linemates will probably get better

His second most common linemate this year is Mika Zibanejad. His third is Chris Kreider.

4. And having better linemates and PP time may very well make his shooting rate rise.

Once again, his PP time has nothing to do with how often he shoots at 5v5. I don't know how much of an effect better linemates will have. I'm not going to pretend I do. I have not looked into that like I have the others. What I can tell you is so far in his career his shot rate is a whopping 0.16 shots/60 higher with Zibanejad than Chytil. At 14 mins/game of 5v5 play that corresponds to 3 shots different over the course of a season. 14 mins/game 5v5 is 1 minute less than Crosby usually gets so it is a reasonable enough number.

5. In addition he's NOT a finished product. You're insane if you think hes hit his ceiling halfway through his D+2 at 120 or so games and not even 1000 minutes of NHL ice time.

Never said he was. I expect him to become more noticeable on the ice and make more plays. I don't expect his shot rate to spike drastically. He wasn't even a huge volume shooter in junior so I don't know why you'd expect him to be one in the NHL. The only year he was among the leaders in shots in junior was his last year when he was 18 years old, the best player in the league, and I'm sure got a ton of ice time and PP time (they don't publish those numbers as far as I know).

6. Look at Keirder's numbers on shot rate and shooting percentage from last year and this. Sure it's probably an outlier but it just shows you can't say the things with certainty that you are trying to say.

Kreider is taking 9.04 shots/60 this year. From 2016 to 2020 he was between 8.09 and 8.73 every year. That's pretty well in line with his norms and yes a bit better. Last year I have no idea what his deal was he only took 5.29 shots/60. It's also a lot easier to shoot less (age-related decline/playing hurt) than to suddenly change your game and start shooting more.

What a load of nonsense. Already said I'm not wasting any more time on this. Hahaha. Thought you said that too. Hahahahaha. Have a good one. See if your "research" bears out in a few years. Oh man.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The whole debate about goals is a kind of obfuscation. I mean here's a #1 overall pick who has accumulated 19 assists in 125 career games. I think that's an even bigger problem than his career shooting percentage or shot rate.

 

[IDvsEGO]

The whole debate about goals is a kind of obfuscation. I mean here's a #1 overall pick who has accumulated 19 assists in 125 career games. I think that's an even bigger problem than his career shooting percentage or shot rate.

Until you remember that half this season his most common linemate was gauthier. He of the high expected goals, but no actual goals.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Until you remember that half this season his most common linemate was gauthier. He of the high expected goals, but no actual goals.

What kind of excuse is this. He's played about 25 percent of his total ice time at 5v5 with Gauthier. Chytil has played more with him and somehow has a higher assist rate than Lafreniere.

 

[IDvsEGO]

What kind of excuse is this. He's played about 25 percent of his total ice time at 5v5 with Gauthier. Chytil has played more with him and somehow has a higher assist rate than Lafreniere.

Im saying per the eye test, lafreniere absolutely doesnt look like someone struggling to make passes. He's struggling to get people to finish quality chances.

 

[bhamill]

The whole debate about goals is a kind of obfuscation. I mean here's a #1 overall pick who has accumulated 19 assists in 125 career games. I think that's an even bigger problem than his career shooting percentage or shot rate.

Yeah. I'm at the point where the whole argument is useless. I think we all want MORE out of him NOW, but our opinions, and that's ALL they are, on what his future development will be obviously vary greatly. And maybe I'm guilty of expecting people to be more "optimistic." Hahaha.
I'm on record as saying I think he will be an at or above a PPG player while being a physical, heart and soul winger and team leader. I guess we are all going to have to wait and find out. Hahaha. But if someone wants to bet he's closer to a bust 4th liner (and yes I've seen that) than what I think, I'll bet a nice bottle of whiskey if I think I can trust the person who takes me up on it to deliver. He's 20. I think 24 is a good age to agree we should see him rounding out, though most players peak closer to 26 and above.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Yeah. I'm at the point where the whole argument is useless. I think we all want MORE out of him NOW, but our opinions, and that's ALL they are, on what his future development will be obviously vary greatly. And maybe I'm guilty of expecting people to be more "optimistic." Hahaha.
I'm on record as saying I think he will be an at or above a PPG player while being a physical, heart and soul winger and team leader. I guess we are all going to have to wait and find out. Hahaha. But if someone wants to bet he's closer to a bust than what I think, I'll bet a nice bottle of whiskey if I think I can trust the person who takes me up on it to deliver. He's 20. I think 24 is a good age to agree we should see him rounding out, though most players peak closer to 26 and above.

Fair enough. Just wanted to say that there's been recent studies showing that players peak closer to 23-24, and then plateau a bit for a few years then decline.

 

[bhamill]

Fair enough. Just wanted to say that there's been recent studies showing that players peak closer to 23-24, and then plateau a bit for a few years then decline.

And then there's Kreider, right? hahaha. But yeah, I think by 23-24 we should have a real grasp on what we have in Laf.

 

[effen]

Fair enough. Just wanted to say that there's been recent studies showing that players peak closer to 23-24, and then plateau a bit for a few years then decline.

That's for big time scorers afaik.

Most players are better at 28 or 29