Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[DanielBrassard]

It’s ridiculous. People seem to be rooting for them to fail at this point.

I get why the NYR are doing what they are doing, and it’s absolutely working overall for the team…at least in the short term. These decisions will only be able to be judged around 2024-25 IMO when all the dust starts settling and the existing vet core declines.

But to pretend that these two prospects are being handled anywhere near the same as the overwhelming majority of other 1OA/2OA picks across the league and across history is so disingenuous it’s hard to take seriously.

No one wants them to fail, that's not happening. If both of Kakko and Lafreniere lived up to the billing this team would be a powerhouse and that would bring nothing but joy to me and many of the people who have been more critical of them than others. When I think Lafreniere plays well I will give him the praise he deserves. Just look at the PGT of the Detroit game.

I just don't buy the usage arguments for either of them at all. It seems like enormous cope for the fact they have been underwhelming. Like Ed mentioned, these guys even in their lesser ice time still have the ability to show traits that would suggest they have another level they could reach if and when they are granted more ice time but we rarely if ever see it. That is the most concerning issue, not even the lack of production.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Do you really believe that? People want their favorite teams first lottery picks basically in franchise history to suck? I don't get how wanting more out of them or being disappointed when these guys were considered shoe ins to put up 70+pts their rookie season; means that the person is rooting against them. It's like we aren't allowed to criticize them when they are massively underperforming their pre-draft hype. Go back and read those threads about Laf & Kakko as prospects, it's absolutely depressing.

Well at some point the bias of wanting to be right kicks in, ignoring all possible evidence and hope for optimism in exchange for page after page of pessimism.

If unanimous consensus 1OA and 2OA in back to back years bust that isn’t a coincidence. It isn’t because the players picked both weren’t talented or just both didn’t work hard enough. IMO it’s easy and lazy to blame the players.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

No one wants them to fail, that's not happening. If both of Kakko and Lafreniere lived up to the billing this team would be a powerhouse and that would bring nothing but joy to me and many of the people who have been more critical of them than others. When I think Lafreniere plays well I will give him the praise he deserves. Just look at the PGT of the Detroit game.

I just don't buy the usage arguments for either of them at all. It seems like enormous cope for the fact they have been underwhelming. Like Ed mentioned, these guys even in their lesser ice time still have the ability to show traits that would suggest they have another level they could reach if and when they are granted more ice time but we rarely if ever see it. That is the most concerning issue, not even the lack of production.

Didn’t Kakko flat out say last year in a Finnish interview that Quinn told them to play extremely conservatively?

Lafreniere has a good stretch at RW putting up points, has a few meh games and is replaced. Extrapolate that type of decision making across every single interaction these players have w coaches and management. We will never know for sure but I don’t understand how you can flat out dismiss the idea that the environment they are in is conditioning and rewarding them for playing more conservatively. Hyper afraid of making mistakes.

Zegras misses the Michigan one time here and he gets demoted / benched. Never been more certain of anything in my life.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Well at some point the bias of wanting to be right kicks in, ignoring all possible evidence and hope for optimism in exchange for page after page of pessimism.

If unanimous consensus 1OA and 2OA in back to back years bust that isn’t a coincidence. It isn’t because the players picked both weren’t talented or just both didn’t work hard enough. IMO it’s easy and lazy to blame the players.

I don't know, they are both quite "vanilla" players; even when they were prospects. The biggest knock against both of them has always been their skating, which is the most important attribute in today's NHL especially for all these young guys. I think skating is the big thing that separates the other kids around the league who are excelling from Laf & Kakko

 

[Machinehead]

It’s ridiculous. People seem to be rooting for them to fail at this point.

I get why the NYR are doing what they are doing, and it’s absolutely working overall for the team…at least in the short term. These decisions will only be able to be judged around 2024-25 IMO when all the dust starts settling and the existing vet core declines.

But to pretend that these two prospects are being handled anywhere near the same as the overwhelming majority of other 1OA/2OA picks across the league and across history is so disingenuous it’s hard to take seriously.

I expect this on the mains with all the Devils fans who do nothing but watch the Rangers, read the Rangers board, and post in Rangers threads (must be some existence) and the usual suspects who just like to have a good whinge.

It's surprising to see people on our own board being so one-sided about this. It has to be frustration.

I get the frustration. As much as I like my stats, I want him to pass the eye test more. I don't say "wow look at that play by Lafreniere" nearly enough. He absolutely needs to shoot more. I do think he could be better in the bottom six and he lets demotions completely derail him.

All of this points to what we've always said which is that there's clearly confidence issues at this level.

That's why it's even more frustrating to see the Rangers go out of their way to make those issues worse. It's been two years. "You better butch up and #EarnIt" isn't working. It largely doesn't work in this day and age.

And the fact that Chytil and Kakko have very similar issues indicates a problem with the way the team handles the mental aspects of being a young player here.

To demote him during his career-best stretch because we don't like some things-n-stuff he does at RW is the team doubling down on the drill sergeant approach that has produced the same shit results since the letter.

 

[bhamill]

The solution is for Lafreniere to play better. There's absolutely zero reason to break the top-6 forwards up if they are all healthy.

Sure. But his EV stats show he’s already playing well. Better than most of the team at EV with limited time. We can’t really expect much more of a D+2 player, no matter WHERE he was drafted without giving him better linemates and more, including PP, time.

It’s a vicious circle. He needs more ice time to progress quickly. He’s NOT going to make any faster progress getting 10-13 mins a game. With third line or worse linemates. With little to no PP time. That’s just the fact of it. That’s how development works. You (the general you, WE) have to make up our minds: do we want the top six and PP to remain intact and OR do we want to accelerate Lafrenirre’s development? We can’t have both. It doesn’t work that way.

Also, we’d be complete f***ing idiots to trade Laf or Kakko for anything less than an astonishing haul. An “offer you can’t refuse” and nothing else. Selling “low” would be such a stunningly f***ing dumb move I have no fear at all that might happen. Laf is, IMO, going to be a physical, heart and soul, ppg+ player in this league. He’s dropped his gloves twice already to stand up for teammates, and against Pitt, when Angelo got out of the bin after the Motte hit, Laf immediately ran him and knocked him to the ice. He’s going to be a player every team in this league wishes they could build around.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't care what anybody says, Miller was really bad for a lot of his first year. And yet he never left the top 4. Look at him now.

Prospects don't develop if they don't get the work in.

We're red hot and headed into the playoffs. Short-term, we're not thinking about development. I understand that.

Starting next year, we have to decide who's moving to RW, stick to it PERMANENTLY, staple Lafreniere to the top six so hard that King Arthur can't pull him out, and say "f*** it, it lands where it lands."

Do that or trade him. I'm tired of being non-committal on this kid.

We traded Buchnevich to give he and Kakko a real look and punted on it before Thanksgiving. It's spineless.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I don't care what anybody says, Miller was really bad for a lot of his first year. And yet he never left the top 4. Look at him now.

Prospects don't develop if they don't get the work in.

We're red hot and headed into the playoffs. Short-term, we're not thinking about development. I understand that.

Starting next year, we have to decide who's moving to RW, stick to it PERMANENTLY, staple Lafreniere to the top six so hard that King Arthur can't pull him out, and say "f*** it, it lands where it lands."

Do that or trade him. I'm tired of being non-committal on this kid.

We traded Buchnevich to give he and Kakko a real look and punted on it before Thanksgiving. It's spineless.

Do you think there's a reason our defensemen seem to develop so much better than our forwards?

 

[Number 9]

With Laf I think his Immaturity might be holding him back. From seeing his interaction in games and Gallant mentioned it also. I think it may take him another year or two to become a "pro". Maybe lacks focus.

 

[SA16]

Sure. But his EV stats show he’s already playing well. Better than most of the team at EV with limited time. We can’t really expect much more of a D+2 player, no matter WHERE he was drafted without giving him better linemates and more, including PP, time.

It’s a vicious circle. He needs more ice time to progress quickly. He’s NOT going to make any faster progress getting 10-13 mins a game. With third line or worse linemates. With little to no PP time. That’s just the fact of it. That’s how development works. You (the general you, WE) have to make up our minds: do we want the top six and PP to remain intact and OR do we want to accelerate Lafrenirre’s development? We can’t have both. It doesn’t work that way.

Also, we’d be complete f***ing idiots to trade Laf or Kakko for anything less than an astonishing haul. An “offer you can’t refuse” and nothing else. Selling “low” would be such a stunningly f***ing dumb move I have no fear at all that might happen. Laf is, IMO, going to be a physical, heart and soul, ppg+ player in this league. He’s dropped his gloves twice already to stand up for teammates, and against Pitt, when Angelo got out of the bin after the Motte hit, Laf immediately ran him and knocked him to the ice. He’s going to be a player every team in this league wishes they could build around.

No they don't. They show he's scoring a lot because he's shooting 20%. If he's one of the best shooters in the history of the league then I suppose his 5v5 stats are good. He probably is not one of the best shooters in the history of the league.

In any case as @DanielBrassard is trying to say the point isn't even the stats. It's the lack of doing much noticeable while on the ice. How often do you see either of these guys with an impressive rush up the ice, a great shot, a great pass? Rarely.

In any case the decision right now is fairly obvious. There are 10 games left in the season. They are tied for first in the division. This is not the time for development. If he's not one of the top six best forwards and not one of the best options on the PP then 10-12 minutes per game is what he should be getting. At the moment the focus is on the playoff run.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Didn’t Kakko flat out say last year in a Finnish interview that Quinn told them to play extremely conservatively?

Lafreniere has a good stretch at RW putting up points, has a few meh games and is replaced. Extrapolate that type of decision making across every single interaction these players have w coaches and management. We will never know for sure but I don’t understand how you can flat out dismiss the idea that the environment they are in is conditioning and rewarding them for playing more conservatively. Hyper afraid of making mistakes.

Zegras misses the Michigan one time here and he gets demoted / benched. Never been more certain of anything in my life.

No I don't believe multiple coaches have and are insisting that #1 and #2 overall picks play such a simple, conservative, risk-free game to the point where they aren't allowed to make highly skilled offensive plays with the puck. I find that very hard to believe.

 

[SA16]

No I don't believe multiple coaches have and are insisting that #1 and #2 overall picks play such a simple, conservative, risk-free game to the point where they aren't allowed to make highly skilled offensive plays with the puck. I find that very hard to believe.

Don't forget we were also told this particular coach was largely responsible for the development of Barkov and Huberdeau so somehow he knew what to do to develop their games yet he's told Kakko/Lafreniere they have to play a simplistic game and avoid all risks?

 

[Machinehead]

Do you think there's a reason our defensemen seem to develop so much better than our forwards?

We give them a chance. Goalies too.

We bought out Henrik f***ing Lundqvist to unequivocally commit to Shesterkin. There wasn't a plan B. Shesterkin never had his Kevin Weekes just in case.

Miller, like I said, never left the top four.

As soon as DeAngelo was gone and that PP1 spot was open, we handed Fox the keys to the city. He was playing 23 minutes the next day. No plan B. No plan C. There were rookies and Brendan Smith behind him.

Where is that commitment at forward? I could see the argument that at one point, there just literally wasn't a spot. But then we traded a good forward to make a spot, and p***yed out on it almost immediately. Hunt and Goodrow were in the top six by November.

We moved Buchnevich to make room, put worse players there instead, and then made trades to replace Buchnevich. I love Vatrano and Copp and going into the nuance on that is a whole other post, but we have gone out of our way to create obstacles for young forwards. Absolutely out of our way. When there was an obstacle by circumstance, we actively replaced him with another obstacle by volition.

And now people will talk about how good Vatrano and Copp have been and fair enough, but before that it was 60 games of Hunt in that spot, and Goodrow late in games, and the Rangers volunteered for it. This was not a happenstance "he's not one of our six best," this was active attempt to keep him on the third line.

The Rangers evidently think this works for forwards and I think the results speak for themselves.

 

[bhamill]

Matt Boldy plays the exact same amount of ice time per game at 5v5 as Lafreniere and is on pace for over 40 points alone at 5v5.

Matt Boldy was drafted a year earlier. He also has 9 PP points, they don’t get the same ice time. Even discounting the PP points and ice time doesn’t mean they get the same treatment or chances. Dont think that PP time helps confidence and development? Come on. It’s exactly what we are talking about.

 

[17futurecap]

Have to get Goodrow off that third line, the kids are just going to be benched in the third period of every playoff game anyways, at least give them a shot to do something productive in the first and second periods, they have no shot with Goodrow centering them, he’s a 4th liner.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Don't forget we were also told this particular coach was largely responsible for the development of Barkov and Huberdeau so somehow he knew what to do to develop their games yet he's told Kakko/Lafreniere they have to play a simplistic game and avoid all risks?

That's 100% right.The story that it's the coaches fault for their lack of success doesn't align with reality for me, just doesn't. I don't think Gallant, Quinn, Drury, or the entire management team are telling Lafreniere when he carries the puck into the offensive zone to continuously get sealed off by opposing defenseman instead of skating around them and cutting behind the net looking for a passing option, or cutting to the net and dangling the goalie or dangling the defenseman in a 1-on-1 situation and making them look silly. Or telling Kakko to spin off a check on the wall and instead of staying on the outside settling for a pass to the point, he cuts in and roofs a shot or finds his linemates on the backdoor and connects on a pass.

It's almost as if you have the talent and skill it will manifest itself on the ice no matter who your coach is, who your linemates are, who your competition is, how much ice time you get. All of those variables are factors in how often those skills will translate to production, but they really have no bearing on whether or not you have the ability to make high-end plays in the first place.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Also, QoC and QoT put together pale in comparison to ice time. Being on the ice is the Alpha and the Omega of producing in the NHL. It's more important than talent.

McDavid had 105 points last year. If we ignore QoT entirely and assume he produces at the same rate for 13:55 per game, he ends up with 49 points. More than half of his production is ice time.

There are valid criticisms of Lafreniere. Chief among them is that he only shoots on days ending with a Z.

That being said, his TOI places a hard cap on what he can produce. If he played absolutely 100% to his potential he would still be scoring less than 40 points.

Among players averaging less than 14 minutes the last two years, he's 2nd in goals and 8th points. That's just about everyone's bottom six so that has to be, conservatively, a good 150 players.

For all the (again) valid criticisms, he's close to producing everything he can.

Stole that stat from @Doctyl

Is ice time linear like that though?

 

[DanielBrassard]

Matt Boldy was drafted a year earlier. He also has 9 PP points, they don’t get the same ice time.

Ok he was drafted a year earlier. He's still a 20-year old rookie who gets literally the exact same amount of 5v5 ice time as Lafreniere and is still on pace for 40+ points at 5v5. He also generates 3 more shots/60 minutes and 6 more shot attempts/60 minutes. In the same amount of ice time. How is that possible?

 

[Machinehead]

No I don't believe multiple coaches have and are insisting that #1 and #2 overall picks play such a simple, conservative, risk-free game to the point where they aren't allowed to make highly skilled offensive plays with the puck. I find that very hard to believe.

I think the idea that Gallant is going to these players and telling them "don't do this, don't do that" is a disingenuous framing of the issue. I don't think anybody is arguing that.

However, when he rewards a 4th liner with a top six spot most of the year, and you're scoring at RW but he doesn't like "your game" there, it sends a similar message.

 

[Machinehead]

Is ice time linear like that though?

Not necessarily but I think it illustrates the point.

 

[SA16]

I can not believe I'm even arguing this but the stats don't matter here. Just watch the guys play. They aren't noticeable. You see Zegras trying all sort of fancy plays. You see Boldy shooting as often as he can. How many skill plays do you see these guys attempting to make here? It doesn't even matter if the plays are successful. You don't even see them trying anything. The number of goals, assists, time on ice etc. is totally irrelevant. Honestly, Julien Gauthier has made more impressive plays on the ice. He doesn't finish them but he's made numerous strong rushes up the ice and gone to the net with the puck.

Kakko and Laf both had a good 7-8 game stretch where they produced and suddenly we had all the narratives about how they "turned the corner" when it all was a decent stretch of production. That's going to happen for anyone in a top role. It doesn't mean they're playing any better. Just sometimes the pucks go in. There is so much rationalizing when it comes to these guys. If you have to search deep down into the numbers to find things promising about the play of these guys you have already missed the point and are searching for a stat to prove your preconceived notion.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, if you make acquisitions to legitimately improve the depth, and Laf ends up on the "third" of three balanced lines, that's different from what we're doing.

We're still stacking the top six and putting the kids back together so we can hide them.

I would bet any amount of money, game 1 of the playoffs, 13-72-24 are firmly 4th in TOI.

I agree with the notion of "these lines are working and I'm worried about the Cup, not Lafreniere" but I would also argue that burning out the to six by having a line you won't play also isn't good in the playoffs.

Again, I would have liked to see these new lines more balanced, beyond how it benefits Lafreniere.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Ok he was drafted a year earlier. He's still a 20-year old rookie who gets literally the exact same amount of 5v5 ice time as Lafreniere and is still on pace for 40+ points at 5v5. He also generates 3 more shots/60 minutes and 6 more shot attempts/60 minutes. In the same amount of ice time. How is that possible?

I guess we'll see how Laf is playing next season when he is the same age as Boldy is now. Nice to come into the league with 2 additional years of development under your belt already and time to get bigger and stronger.

 

[rangersfansince08]

If they were what they were billed to be, we would be the cup favorites this year and for the foreseeable future. It sucks knowing that.

 

[duhmetreE]

Top6 player does not perform playing with tweeners and Filip Chytil... news at 10.

He played better on the top line 'out of position'.

He needs to work hard this offseason and accept he will not be playing Left Wing anytime soon.