Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[mas0764]

Actually the first 63% seems to be pretty hard also since only 3 teams accomplished it each of the last 2 years.

... and we aren't one of them?

Isn’t a goalie part of the team? So why denigrate the team because one player was able to carry them far?

It’s such a stupid way to shit on a team because their goalie played great (which was not necessarily true against Pittsburgh).

“The only reason…..”. Such a shallow and silly way to knock the accomplishment

The reason is because it's an unreliable and unpredictable way to win (relying on the goalie) and it usually doesn't work.

So in an effort to build a Cup winner, saying the team advanced to the Conference Finals "just because of the goalie," is really an admission that your team is way farther away than it needs to be. Sustained 5v5 dominance is a way better predictor of being able to advance far in the playoffs. Just look at us this year when Igor DIDN'T carry us.

 

[mas0764]

I mean, that’s different. You can argue that it was a fluke for whatever reason. The backup goalies, Igor, whatever.

But what you can’t do is diminish how far they went. They were the 3rd team out of 32 teams. To categorize that as “barely half the amount of wins” needed to hoist the cup is laughable.

It's not "diminishing" how far they went, it's contextualizing how far they have to go.

Some people got drunk on that run and fell into the trap of believing the team was a true contender. You get teams making it to the Final Four who aren't elite, true contenders occasionally, because, as I pointed out, it only takes half the wins required to be a Champion to get to that spot.

That's exactly the point. Being in that last 4 teams standing means you are halfway there. It's not really all that amazing. You still have a long way to go. The other 12 teams being out of the picture is kinda irrelevant. You didn't beat them all, they are sorted out organically. Reaching the Conference Finals usually means you still have to face the two best other teams in the league to get the Cup. The easy part is rounds 1 and 2.

We had a long way to go and after going up 2-0, we kinda fell flat. I don't look at that run and say "we were right on the cusp." I see two relatively fortunate Game 7 series wins and then a complete bombardment from Game 3 onwards in that Conference Finals. Once Vasilevskiy got his feet under him, we couldn't score, and Tampa basically completely shut us down. We didn't really belong on that stage and won't until we figure out how to be a way better team at 5v5.

Some of that is that we require more young forward talent. Some of it will be coaching.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

It's not "diminishing" how far they went, it's contextualizing how far they have to go.

Some people got drunk on that run and fell into the trap of believing the team was a true contender. You get teams making it to the Final Four who aren't elite, true contenders occasionally, because, as I pointed out, it only takes half the wins required to be a Champion to get to that spot.

That's exactly the point. Being in that last 4 teams standing means you are halfway there. It's not really all that amazing. You still have a long way to go. The other 12 teams being out of the picture is kinda irrelevant. You didn't beat them all, they are sorted out organically. Reaching the Conference Finals usually means you still have to face the two best other teams in the league to get the Cup. The easy part is rounds 1 and 2.

We had a long way to go and after going up 2-0, we kinda fell flat. I don't look at that run and say "we were right on the cusp." I see two relatively fortunate Game 7 series wins and then a complete bombardment from Game 3 onwards in that Conference Finals. Once Vasilevskiy got his feet under him, we couldn't score, and Tampa basically completely shut us down. We didn't really belong on that stage and won't until we figure out how to be a way better team at 5v5.

Some of that is that we require more young forward talent. Some of it will be coaching.

This is simply not true. Some of the toughest series and matchups happen in the 1st round. It just happened to the Rangers this year and both Pitt and Carolina were 100+ point teams the previous year. Stop trying to diminish what they accomplished. Winning 2 playoff rounds is not easy.

 

[NickyFotiu]

This is simply not true. Some of the toughest series and matchups happen in the 1st round. It just happened to the Rangers this year and both Pitt and Carolina were 100+ point teams the previous year. Stop trying to diminish what they accomplished. Winning 2 playoff rounds is not easy.

You are both right to a degree imo.

Going to the conference finals and winning 2 games is not easy. We played longer than every team but 2 that season.

Going to the conference finals in 22 is history. I tried to explain that to folks that were all but penciling us in for a repeat after we signed Vince T. Every season is an individual season. The playoff experience is helpful for the future but champs can miss the playoffs in a year or vice versa. If the effort isn't consistent no team is winning it all.

 

[Irishguy42]

Could easily say we were 63% of the way to a CUP WIN... literally 6 wins from hoisting it...
Only two teams got closer, right?

This is why saying being only 63% of the way to a Stanley Cup is dumb af

Boiling down 2 wins away from the SCF to being only just over halfway to a Cup win is the dumbest f***ing thing ever.

Context, of course matters. And once you get into the context, the whole "63% of the way to the Cup" already means nothing.

 

[haohmaru]

Kreider sure, but not Mika’s.
Mika has at least 1-2 extra minutes at even strength.
And laf’s even strength production wasn’t far off kreiders.

The guy who was most under the radar in regards to even strength points was Trocheck with 47 points.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

You are both right to a degree imo.

Going to the conference finals and winning 2 games is not easy. We played longer than every team but 2 that season.

Going to the conference finals in 22 is history. I tried to explain that to folks that were all but penciling us in for a repeat after we signed Vince T. Every season is an individual season. The playoff experience is helpful for the future but champs can miss the playoffs in a year or vice versa. If the effort isn't consistent no team is winning it all.

It's just really difficult to repeat long runs. You are right, so many things are different year to year. What Tampa did is not the norm. Vegas and Florida may not make it out of the first round next year. One never knows. My point has always been making a run is always preferable even if it doesn't result in a cup and dismissing winning 10 playoff wins because they didn't win the other 6 is foolish.

 

[mas0764]

Celebrating a conference finals run that is clearly not repeatable based on a flawed team is loser talk.

I’m aiming to win it all and don’t accept an undertalented team that can’t win.

 

[bhamill]

This is why saying being only 63% of the way to a Stanley Cup is dumb af

Boiling down 2 wins away from the SCF to being only just over halfway to a Cup win is the dumbest f***ing thing ever.

Context, of course matters. And once you get into the context, the whole "63% of the way to the Cup" already means nothing.

They got 10 of the 16 playoff wins needed. After of course playing well enough to qualify for the playoffs. The whole point of it was to dispute that we had zero chance of winning. That’s the context in which I made the statements. But sure, in other contexts that 63% figure doesn’t mean shit. We did better than about 90% of the teams in the league is another way of looking at it. But really I just thought it was a bit overboard for someone to say we had zero chance of winning.

 

[NickyFotiu]

It's just really difficult to repeat long runs. You are right, so many things are different year to year. What Tampa did is not the norm. Vegas and Florida may not make it out of the first round next year. One never knows. My point has always been making a run is always preferable even if it doesn't result in a cup and dismissing winning 10 playoff wins because they didn't win the other 6 is foolish.

Totally agree!

 

[NickyFotiu]

Celebrating a conference finals run that is clearly not repeatable based on a flawed team is loser talk.

I’m aiming to win it all and don’t accept an undertalented team that can’t win.

A lot more than talent goes in to winning in this parity era. That year injuries played a role for and against us. Timing, health, matchups, etc all play a role. Can you show me one post on HF of somebody saying Vegas was the most talented team before the playoffs started? That is rhetorical. I don't expect you to search.

 

[Peltz]

... and we aren't one of them?



The reason is because it's an unreliable and unpredictable way to win (relying on the goalie) and it usually doesn't work.

So in an effort to build a Cup winner, saying the team advanced to the Conference Finals "just because of the goalie," is really an admission that your team is way farther away than it needs to be. Sustained 5v5 dominance is a way better predictor of being able to advance far in the playoffs. Just look at us this year when Igor DIDN'T carry us.

But has Carolina been any more successful? They’ve been the best team analytically several years in a row now. They haven’t done it either.

There is no one formula for winning a cup.

 

[mas0764]

But has Carolina been any more successful? They’ve been the best team analytically several years in a row now. They haven’t done it either.

There is no one formula for winning a cup.

There are one-offs.

It's just that they are much rarer.

There is a rough outline of a formula: Dominant forward talent and two #1 defenders. Goalie can be mediocre. And to the extent that a dominant goalie has a salary that prohibits the acquisition of the dominant forward or defensemen talent, you are just hamstringing yourself.

Are there exceptions? Sure.

But if you have the opportunity to be crafting your roster, you shouldn't be trying to craft your way to being one of the exceptions, you should be sticking to the rough formula.

 

[bleedblue94]

There are one-offs.

It's just that they are much rarer.

There is a rough outline of a formula: Dominant forward talent and two #1 defenders. Goalie can be mediocre. And to the extent that a dominant goalie has a salary that prohibits the acquisition of the dominant forward or defensemen talent, you are just hamstringing yourself.

Are there exceptions? Sure.

But if you have the opportunity to be crafting your roster, you shouldn't be trying to craft your way to being one of the exceptions, you should be sticking to the rough formula.

and for right now our ELITE goalie is not breaking the bank here.

 

[mas0764]

and for right now our ELITE goalie is not breaking the bank here.

For now.

We are, sadly, short on the dominant forward talent, until Kakko and Laf turn into stars (if ever) and until Mika and Panarin play like stars in the playoffs.

Also sadly, these occurences may never overlap, because we tried to blend two windows, each of them without enough firepower to give us decent odds, instead of doubling down on the best window opportunity we had (which was the future one).

 

[2014nyr]

It's just really difficult to repeat long runs. You are right, so many things are different year to year. What Tampa did is not the norm. Vegas and Florida may not make it out of the first round next year. One never knows. My point has always been making a run is always preferable even if it doesn't result in a cup and dismissing winning 10 playoff wins because they didn't win the other 6 is foolish.

important to keep in mind with tampa that they won their cups in shortened seasons - first was 70 or so games, then a big break before the bubble followed by a 56 game season. every team dealt with the same things so not like they had an advantage, but in terms of being a top team in the league those years offered more recovery time than if they'd gone to the finals 3 consecutive years playing 82 plus playoffs. with the parity of today's nhl and the pace it's played at, i don't know how likely it is a team could do that 3 normal seasons in a row...might be beyond the limits of the human body.

but agree things change year to year, again with the parity of the league the margins at the top are really small. a couple injuries at the wrong time can derail a season like vegas last year, a couple unexpected or ahead-of-schedule developments can create surprises like the rangers last year and devils this year, a huge break can spark a long playoff run like the panthers this year sneaking in by virtue of pitt losing at home to chicago etc...

the other theme seems to be recent cup winners experiencing heartbreak and embarrassment before the final push. tampa lost in the conf finals, then the first round, then won it all. col made surprising pushes, had a dominant year and got knocked out in round 2 multiple times, then won. vegas was no different. teams like the rangers, florida, edmonton, toronto all seem to more or less fit that mold looking ahead, but who knows. there's a pretty lengthy list of teams i could see winning it all depending on how things break for them/other teams over the course of the season/playoffs.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Take Kreider or Zib off pp1 and what do their point totals look like, i have no idea what the answer to that is but i bet it looks similar to Lafreniere's. I haven't even checked that but it feels like it. If the team doesn't wanna give him some pp1 time over a guy like Trochek who's role is redundant with Kreider there then i guess this franchise isn't interested in furthering Lafreniere's career. Like him or hate him the team is going absolutely nowhere without him and Kakko as good cintributers, the organization needs a plan for them.

 

[Synergy27]

Did this fat f*** sign yet or what?

 

[bleedblue94]

Did this fat f*** sign yet or what?

He's having another garlic knot. Give it time.

In all seriousness he is the one guy that I do actually wonder if he would sign an offer sheet. I didn't think Miller would unless something crazy like 8x8 came to him, but laffy I would wonder just from the standpoint of a clean restart to his career.

 

[LORDE]

Did this fat f*** sign yet or what?

He can't be reached ATM

He's waist deep in a family size KFC meal, extra gravy & w/ a "GOTTA HAVE IT' sized Cold Stone cookie dough ice cream,a deep fried snickers, PLUS an entire sheet cake waiting for him.

He's taking some time off to reevaluate his 'off season training'.

 

[Beniers10 Hughes86]

I believe his 4th NHL season will be his make or break it season, it will determine his career going forward. Heres hoping he sign and break out for the your guys.

 

[bhamill]

I believe his 4th NHL season will be his make or break it season, it will determine his career going forward. Heres hoping he sign and break out for the your guys.

Honestly, think taking that tact with any player 23 or younger is a risky proposition. Maybe if a player didn’t make the NHL till their D+3, but thinking a player is what he is at 21-22, and even a few years older can be a recipe for regrettable trades. All we have to do is look at Mika…

 

[Synergy27]

Honestly, think taking that tact with any player 23 or younger is a risky proposition. Maybe if a player didn’t make the NHL till their D+3, but thinking a player is what he is at 21-22, and even a few years older can be a recipe for regrettable trades. All we have to do is look at Mika…

Is anyone really arguing this? I don’t think anyone, even his most ardent detractors, thinks that he is what he is. The concern remains that the path to a dominant player, call it a 100 point scorer, looks super sketchy at the moment.

He’s clearly going to be at least a 65 point guy through his prime. No one thinks he’s going to remain a third line, 40 point player.

 

[RagFinMet]

He can't be reached ATM

He's waist deep in a family size KFC meal, extra gravy & w/ a "GOTTA HAVE IT' sized Cold Stone cookie dough ice cream,a deep fried snickers, PLUS an entire sheet cake waiting for him.

He's taking some time off to reevaluate his 'off season training'.

Thanx for making me hungry!
Im trying no carbs this weekend

 

[Beniers10 Hughes86]

Honestly, think taking that tact with any player 23 or younger is a risky proposition. Maybe if a player didn’t make the NHL till their D+3, but thinking a player is what he is at 21-22, and even a few years older can be a recipe for regrettable trades. All we have to do is look at Mika…

I dont mean break out like what Jack Hughes did, but more like continue improving his points production. If he can get close to 60+ points next season, that would indicate a good projection for him going forward. And I believe he can do that entering his 4th NHL season.