Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[bhamill]

Fair but 53 points in year four is a pretty far cry from 31 points which is the current career high and not sure if this year will much surpass that at this rate.

I think a lot of the "Laf sucks, get him out of here" that we've seen in this thread the last few days is a tremendous overreaction but is also the natural outcome of despondence setting in as people begin to feel that it's never going to click for this guy in terms of being the superstar we need.

And the undercurrent to that is the semi acknowledgement that if Laf "blooms" into a 60 point player that we still are going to win zero Cups. Where is our Nathan MacKinnon?

If we don't have one, we don't win Cups.

Fair take. I see that frustration in a lot of these posts.
As an aside, this is Laf’s 3rd season, not his 4th, and two of those seasons were very curtailed. He’s probably not far past two regular seasons worth of regular season games.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

I thought I'd share the following -- it's part of an email from a friend about Laffy. I think it helps put things into perspective:

"I've gone back and researched the scouting reports on him coming out of Juniors, and they were not that he was a Connor McDavid proxy, they were that he has an elite hockey IQ, knows where to go to score goals and is willing to do so, plays gritty and pesky, and is a terrific locker room personality.

None of these qualities has proven untrue with Laf. What he very clearly struggles with is (1) his back check, and (2) his foot speed. I think it's very likely that both of those things have been points of emphasis by his coaches, and that in trying to improve in areas away from the puck, as well as in trying to change the way he plays in order to fit into a roster that has 2 players ahead of him in the depth chart at his position, he has lost sight of his personal identity as a player."

By the way --- didn't someone here comment that that draft was a weak draft?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

as long as dolan owns the team you know full well there won't be any changes made. even if the kid somehow starts putting up stoots numbers elsewhere. a thousand fans could picket in front of msg saying dolan sux but so what? he's not selling and going anywhere.

dolan's formula to make money with the team is: sign/trade for 2 name guys for the offense. then somehow fill up the rest of the other roster spots. team plays slightly above .500. reaching the playoff and anything after that is all gravy. dolan know what to do to fill up the garden seats.

Where’s our Steve Cohen

 

[xsniper11x]

Laf aside, big picture, we don’t need him to be a franchise player. We def need him to be a quality top 6 contributor, but we shouldn’t need him to be elite. We have two lottery talents: Kakko and Fox. We won the lottery w/ Fox, so two “lottery wins” should be enough to feel good about the future w/ a good young core to go with it. Can throw in Shesty if you what, but goalies are voodoo and it’s well documented you don’t need an elite one to win.

If Laf becomes elite, amazing. If he’s just a high quality 70p guy, fine. It’s not a death warrant. A compete bust, then it’s problematic.

 

[mas0764]

Fair take. I see that frustration in a lot of these posts.
As an aside, this is Laf’s 3rd season, not his 4th, and two of those seasons were very curtailed. He’s probably not far past two regular seasons worth of regular season games.

I think I said earlier that there's far too much negativity in the Laf thread. I'm certainly not running him out of town.

It's very valid to be alarmed and concerned. And to place a lot of blame on the org.

Laf aside, big picture, we don’t need him to be a franchise player. We def need him to be a quality top 6 contributor, but we shouldn’t need him to be elite. We have two lottery talents: Kakko and Fox. We won the lottery w/ Fox, so two “lottery wins” should be enough to feel good about the future w/ a good young core to go with it.

If Laf becomes elite, amazing. If he’s just a high quality 70p guy, fine. It’s not a death warrant. A compete bust, then it’s problematic.

I don't think that's true.

I think you need more elite forward talent to win. And I don't think Zib/Panarin are cutting it at this point.

 

[will1066]

Where’s our Steve Cohen

Steve Cohen operates without a salary cap.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Steve Cohen operates without a salary cap.

I mean a Rangers fan so rich that they can buy the team away from Dolan.

 

[will1066]

I mean a Rangers fan so rich that they can buy the team away from Dolan.

A-Rod?

I kid. I kid.

 

[Bob Richards]

I just don't think this is a hard market to play hockey though. Zach Wilson is some kind of sad regional joke, and there were guys on the radio basically issuing fatwas against Julius Randle after he had a bad year. All the guys we talk about here are basically anonymous.

Yeah I've long rolled my eyes any time this place is brought up as some highly scrutinized and tough market for the sport. Its hockey. No one gives a shit about this stuff aside from the freaks like all of you guys and myself who post on this message board lol.

If the Knicks ever selected 1st overall and that player turned out as disappointing as Lafreniere has been they'd have to send in the National Guard.

 

[Ori]

Montreal lol

I doubt it.. They have been asking for Laf since we drafted him

 

[Payote75]

Most of the players Laffy is being compared to were allowed to play minutes in all sorts of situations basically allowed to develop. The rangers were on the right track and things changed when Dolan got involved right at that Tom Wilson situation. He wanted to win now basically declared the rebuild over while it was honestly still going on and while we were able to rebuild faster than most also with a little luck that declaration or demand has cost us.

I like gallant but not the man for the job at least not like this. He may or may not be able to develop young talent but with the pressure of win now his hands are tied. He probably needs to go for the kids sake more of a victim of circumstance ironically much like the kids
Dolan should but the f*** out he ruined the Knicks badly but while all his attention was there the rangers quietly rebuilt then the moment he saw any progress or success he quickly jumped on board to show he was a part of it all ego driven from there on the rebuild was smashed. It's literally crippled and handcuffed all the kids coaches and maybe even the two face Drury who just does as he is told in my opinion.

I don't care about who is being paid what I love kreids find another spot for him either 3rd line lw or at this stage in his career he is smart enough savvy enough to play rw stop playing a 19,20 now 21 yr old kid out of position and with not letting anyone see if he could be a McKinnon because he doesn't get that time or Hughes etc. Same Kakko and even whiny Kravy he may not have been so wrong even through his sense of entitlement he had a point "how can I get better if I don't play" hmmmm that's basically the issue. These kids are being stunted badly.

So you want to add Kane yes typically great move but what does that do to kids? So just start selling them off for pieces they won't ever develop totally in this caught in limbo but win now environment.

 

[bhamill]

The bar is so low that everyone thinks he's getting lots of points lately, "on a heater", etc

He has 1 point in his last 3 games, 3 in his last 5. This guy was penciled in by everyone & their dog to be an immediate impact 65+pt rookie. We're in his 4th NHL season and people are getting excited about him producing at a 40-something pt pace in a tiny specific sample size. Even after this "heater" he's on pace for 36 points in his 4th NHL season. Playing on the first line. The production is still historically abysmal for a 2nd overall pick.

Tell that to Byfield. Hahaha.
See, but people think their “expectations” define reality. Just because a player hasn’t lived up to your expectations in timely fashion does not meant that player will not eventually pan out pretty much as WAS expected. Or close. Curious: has Krav lived up to your expectation? I mean outside of the shtick, which you know I am a fan of. Krav has 5 points in 21 games at 23 years old… I expect more and believe he will get there, however he’s tied with Blais in points (in 14 less games, but still). You can temper your expectations s when you want, you shouldn’t be surprised that folks can do that with KK, Laf and Chytil.

 

[will1066]

I doubt it.. They have been asking for Laf since we drafted him

You didn't quite catch Tob's unique sense of humor there.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

Steve Cohen operates without a salary cap.

You're correct -- he operates under the Cohen Cap.

 

[xsniper11x]

I think I said earlier that there's far too much negativity in the Laf thread. I'm certainly not running him out of town.

It's very valid to be alarmed and concerned. And to place a lot of blame on the org.



I don't think that's true.

I think you need more elite forward talent to win. And I don't think Zib/Panarin are cutting it at this point.

I’m thinking next window. I don’t think we’re winning anything while paying this version of Panarin nearly $12mm.

Now to your point. To be a potential dynasty, yes. Pre-cap era, absolutely. But Caps and Blues proved otherwise. Avs are special, but they’ve lost all their depth after having to pay their stars.

What you need more than anything is depth, and I do think we’re building a decent stockpile of young talent.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

What you need more than anything is depth, and I do think we’re building a decent stockpile of young talent.

Now we need someone to teach them how to play as a team.

 

[markymarc1215]

Personally I'd rather keep him and have him underperform his draft position than trade him and watch him become a star in this league. I think the issue is twofold. This team certainly should put him in a position to see PP and Top 6 icetime consistently. The organization is notorious for mishandling and striking out when it comes to drafting forwards in the top 10. Think about it.......Niklas Sundstrom, Manny Malhotra, Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark, Lias Andersson, Vitali Kravtsov, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere. How many of those players performed as top tier forwards? However, there is still hope for the latter three. I think Kakko is there and will be the best of the bunch.

Secondly, Lafreniere has been a passenger for way too long. His play hasnt warranted moving up. Watching him reminds me of Alexandre Daigle and Marc Savard's time with the Rangers. Oozing potential that you would see from time to time, but never fully connecting the dots.

He is young and has time though. Hold, give him a few years, and temper expectations to where they are for Kakko now. Just show improvement on and off the puck and play hard. The numbers will be there when he does.

 

[mas0764]

I’m thinking next window. I don’t think we’re winning anything while paying this version of Panarin nearly $12mm.

Now to your point. To be a potential dynasty, yes. Pre-cap era, absolutely. But Caps and Blues proved otherwise. Avs are special, but they’ve lost all their depth after having to pay their stars.

What you need more than anything is depth, and I do think we’re building a decent stockpile of talent.

Well, so let's address two things. First, if we are already looking at the "next window," -- which I long argued on this board, and will eventually be proven right about, that if we can't win with this core we should just keep trading off pieces and ONLY build towards the next window instead of trying to win in two windows, which only lessens both of them -- but if we are already looking at the "next window" then we should just go ahead and rip that bandaid off and do it.

Start telling these guys they are getting benched for young kids, you are going back to tanking, and they will waive, and you can trade them. I agree with you it is unlikely we win anything with this incarnation so might as well move on now.

Secondly, the Caps and Blues proved to be one-offs, which I never said don't exist, but they are far harder to count on winning as. The one-offs win a small minority of the Cups. The teams who draft two legit star forwards, especially centers, win the vast majority of the Cups. We should be emulating one approach and not the other.

And even the Caps, did they really prove the exception? They have the second best goal scorer to ever play the game. Do we?

 

[xsniper11x]

Well, so let's address two things. First, if we are already looking at the "next window," -- which I long argued on this board, and will eventually be proven right about, that if we can't win with this core we should just keep trading off pieces and ONLY build towards the next window instead of trying to win in two windows, which only lessens both of them -- but if we are already looking at the "next window" then we should just go ahead and rip that bandaid off and do it.

Start telling these guys they are getting benched for young kids, you are going back to tanking, and they will waive, and you can trade them. I agree with you it is unlikely we win anything with this incarnation so might as well move on now.

Secondly, the Caps and Blues proved to be one-offs, which I never said don't exist, but they are far harder to count on winning as. The one-offs win a small minority of the Cups. The teams who draft two legit star forwards, especially centers, win the vast majority of the Cups. We should be emulating one approach and not the other.

And even the Caps, did they really prove the exception? They have the second best goal scorer to ever play the game. Do we?

While that would’ve been the right approach, that ship likely sailed once we signed Panarin. Trouba and Kreider will be dealt in a few years. If you’re saying the half pregnant approach wasn’t smart, I agree with you. But we are where we are. We’re not tanking again (we never really did) and we have have way too much talent even w/o Panarin, Kreider and Trouba to do it.

Laf, Kakko, Fox, Chytil, Miller, Schneider, Othmann, Kratsov and Shesty are our future core w/ a fair amount of bottom 6 help on the way. Zib and Tro the vet help at C where we need it. That’s a very good young core. If we’re going to find another elite talent in the window, we’re going to have to draft a gem, sign one or leverage our youth to trade for one.

 

[mas0764]

While that would’ve been the right approach, that ship likely sailed once we signed Panarin. Trouba and Kreider will be dealt in a few years. If you’re saying the half pregnant approach wasn’t smart, I agree with you. But we are where we are. We’re not tanking again (we never really did) and we have have way too much talent even w/o Panarin, Kreider and Trouba to do it.

I always felt that signing Panarin was the right approach because he was a "put butts in seats" acquistion and a good mentor to young wingers while we completed the rebuild, and, with any luck, we could emerge from the rebuild with a young-30s Panarin who could play the Gaborik on the Kings role.

We went the opposite direction and tried to build a contender around him.

I would now have to say, given how we decided to run the team, that I probably regret going in that direction. Still, we could have signed him and made a few different moves and we would be in a way different situation.

 

[Ori]

Kreider is 31 years old already and Zib is 29 and I believe a player like Kreider benefit with his speed which will be slower eventually so I dont enjoy length of his contract. I am not updated now if we can move him at all at the moment.

The top draft picks should get 1st PP time in my opinion and rather lose some points instead in any season while top talents develop. It is still obvious for me that Rangers is going to play playoffs and who knows what will happen. We are not Stanley cup favourites at the moment though and maybe lack of development issues or unfortunate with high rated drafted players since 2018.

 

[ReddestRum]

Does Bread even sign with this team if we tell him we're not gunning for the cup each year he's on this team?

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

Most frequent linemates are Tkachuk and Giroux.
The gap may widen, it may close, who knows? If either of us could straight up predict the future we’d be pretty wealthy. Haha. But I wouldn’t be surprised either way. The point stands that with first rate linemates, about 8 mins more a game, let’s say 5 EV mins more a game, and the confidence that comes with getting primary powerplay time and the trust of his coach, Stutzle’s EV numbers are still comparable to Lafreniere’s. Safe to say that Laf is scoring at a higher rate P/60 EV. All this is not saying that Laf is playing anywhere near well enough, he’s not. It’s not saying that Stutzle is not a terrific young player, he is. And yes, he definitely looks better than Laf. It’s just some perspective on opportunity and success. Hey, I get it if you have a lack of faith in Laf’s development, but the fact of the matter is he’s not even three months past his 21st birthday, he’s got a lot of runway ahead of him still, very far from a finished product.

he's given numerous looks on the first and 2nd lines this season as well as the last one. this has been mentioned on this and a few other related threads to the point of ad nauseum.

now regarding the similar EV numbers between the 2. stoot's EV numbers are actually more "meaningful" than laffy's. what i mean by that is:

while the game was on yesterday i decided to tinker with the idea of meaningful pts. by that i mean pts scored during the point of the game where the score was a 2 point difference or less. i chose stooots and laffy as i kept hearing about them having identical EV pts. i also did it with trochek as well and chose kucherov as the elite example.

note that power play i totally disregarded.

the tally for this season before yesterday's games:

laffy: 12
stoots: 17
trocheck: 15
kucherov: 26

now if you divided those and subtract from each player's total EV the result would be garbage time pts.

oh stoots has more points than laffy because of the PP. well then yeah the kid earned it didn't he? the team made him audition in practice and he's run with that job since. it'a a big responsibility, especially for a 20-21 year old.

and to disregard PP just to stand on a crutch to defend a player via EV stats is bullshit. at least 75-80% of the time a stanley cup winning team is ranked in the top 10 in PP rankings.

if anybody can lead me to a site that has stats similar to what i attempted to tabulate let me know as it was kinda a pain in the ass to do.

 

[haohmaru]

I'm not all that worried about Panarin as long as 2023 playoff Panarin is much better than the 2022 version.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

Where’s our Steve Cohen

who knows. probably looking somewhere to buy shit to add to his fancy art collection.