Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[ajdj10]

I'm not all that worried about Panarin as long as 2023 playoff Panarin is much better than the 2022 version.

Good luck with that.
People were saying Panarin sucked during last years playoffs because he was injured.
He's still doing the same stupid spinorama blind passes to the opposition this season.

I still can't believe he's not doing the same defensive stuff that he did in his first year here.
His takeaways every game were amazing to watch.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Tell that to Byfield. Hahaha.
See, but people think their “expectations” define reality. Just because a player hasn’t lived up to your expectations in timely fashion does not meant that player will not eventually pan out pretty much as AS expected. Or close. Curious: has Krav lived up to your expectation? I mean outside of the shtick, which you know I am a fan of. Krav has 5 points in 21 games at 23 years old… I expect more and believe he will get there, however he’s tied with Blais in points (in 14 less games, but still). You can temper your expectations s when you want, you shouldn’t be surprised that folks can do that with KK, Laf and Chytil.

True but to this point Laf may have the worst first 3 seasons out of any 1st overall in NHL history. Krav has played about as well as I expected, I didn't expect him to get injured multiple times (which obviously make his stats look worse than they are, it's basically added a few GP where he didn't even play). I didn't expect the coach to hate him so much and still not give (even according to his critics) the guy literally built for 3v3 skills competitions a single shift in OT halfway through the season. But he reminds me of Jack Hughes where he's oozing skill & the analytics are backing it up but the production isn't there yet. Below is Lafreniere, Kakko & Kravtsov this season, in that order.

 

[Raspewtin]

This isn’t to compare the two or put down one or the other. It’s for perspective.

Alexis Lafreniere has 17 EVP averaging 14:51 TOI through 40 games. 13:38 at EV, 1:09 on the PP, 0:03 SH per game.

Dawson Mercer has 17 EVP averaging 15:24 TOI through 40 games. 13:00 at EV, 1:23 on the PP, 1:01 SH per game.

Same EV points, 38 less seconds per game spent at EV (25:20 total). 14 more seconds per game spent on the PP (9:20 total). Taking away SH time, Laf actually is on the ice for 24 more seconds per game. Mercer only slightly edges him on TOI because he PKs a bit.

So Mercer has produced the same EV as Laf, with 2x goals, in 25 less minutes of EV time, and has 3 more PP points than Laf does in 9 more minutes of PP time. Laf has had the edge in goals in the past.

Sounds like nearly identical players. Mercer is 26 days younger and was taken 17 slots later. Almost identical age, same draft.

That provides some decent perspective, I suppose. Mercer is on track to be a good 50-60 point player who may even have a couple of seasons in the high 60s/low 70s at his peak. If that’s what Laf is as well, so be it. That’s still a valuable guy to grow in your organization - but that’s basically a Kreider replacement. Mercer being that with the 18th pick for NJ is fine because they have Hughes as their face of the franchise 1OA.

Laf being that with the 1OA for us hurts because we really NEEDED one of Laf or KK to become that face of the franchise for the next 15 years, elite homegrown forward we’ve lacked.

That’s not to say that Laf growing into a 60 point physical winger doesn’t have value. If he’d been the 18th OA pick I think we’d all be thrilled with that. The problem is that some of us know - or feel - in our guts that even if Laf does become a very good, solid top six winger, it’s fairly clear he will never be a superstar, elite franchise player and basically, that’s the only way we were ever going to get one.

We can have patience with Laf and KK, but I think for some the resentment/disappointment stems from realizing we’re about to watch the Lundqvist era repeat itself nearly verbatim with us not ever having the elite young talent found at the top of the draft to get us over the hump. We may still come away with 2 pretty darn good players, but no elite talent. Again.

this this this this THIS

it's extremely apparent we were cheated out of the excitement of watching young superstar forwards grow, twice, and we've spent 4 years throwing every possible excuse out there to keep the delusion that they'll ever be more than solid middle 6 players afloat. everything about this has sucked from a development standpoint. no exciting plays from them, completely unnoticable most times, several players in their draft class blowing past them, all the dorks starting 10000 mainboard threads about how we're ruining talent. it all sucks so f***ing bad after we finally get something we had to wait 50+ years for.

I openly admit I have about a mountain of resentment and contempt for kakko and lafreniere the players. this was supposed to be different. a non-rongos approach to things. instead it's been 4 years of agony and as much as I think this org is toxic to talent, they suck plenty on their own. it really sucks.

Nathan f***ing MacKinnon, now an all-universe uber-star, went from 53 points in year 4 to 97 points in year 5, 16 goals to 39 goals. Won his championship in year 9. Only after realizing that he needed to take winning seriously and ate nothing but carrots and chia seeds he picked up from the dirt beneath his feet -- and making others follow suit, as a vet not as a kid. This came after 4 seasons of elite production.

Shit takes time. We are not in a DreamWorks animated fairy tale where the kids are the stars and supported by loving vets who want only them to succeed and the head coach is a sage voiced by Robert Downey Jr. who always gives the correct advice right before the exciting last act.

nathan mackinnon stepped onto the ice a top 3 skater in the world. you saw the talent. you also saw how unbelievably disfunctional those Avs teams were as their supporting cast was gutted. I don't think it's a 1 to 1.

 

[haohmaru]

I still have hope for Kakko in particular. He has flashes and Laf... really doesn't. I'm really curious what Kakko's game will look like at age 23-24

 

[Deleted member 23124]

Looking at a list of the 2020 draft shows that the 1OA pick is not an automatic game changer/generational player....Out of that entire draft, only two players (stutzle and raymond) have outscored Laf... If I remember correctly, Byfield was considered to be the 1OA during the year leading up to the draft.

Bottom line -- the 1OA tag added unwarranted expectations.

2020 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

A sortable list of players drafted in the 2020 NHL Entry draft, including their career scoring after being drafted

www.hockeydb.com

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

True but to this point Laf may have the worst first 3 seasons out of any 1st overall in NHL history. Krav has played about as well as I expected, I didn't expect him to get injured multiple times (which obviously make his stats look worse than they are, it's basically added a few GP where he didn't even play). I didn't expect the coach to hate him so much and still not give (even according to his critics) the guy literally built for 3v3 skills competitions a single shift in OT halfway through the season. But he reminds me of Jack Hughes where he's oozing skill & the analytics are backing it up but the production isn't there yet. Below is Lafreniere, Kakko & Kravtsov this season, in that order.

Is this still a part of your schtick? Hard to tell sometimes. If serious, all last year Kakko’s analytics were positive and you trashed him as a “beta” 10 times a day. Not even convinced you are a Ranger fan, it’s getting old.

 

[ReddestRum]

Looking at a list of the 2020 draft shows that the 1OA pick is not an automatic game changer/generational player....Out of that entire draft, only two players (stutzle and raymond) have outscored Laf... If I remember correctly, Byfield was considered to be the 1OA during the year leading up to the draft.

Bottom line -- the 1OA tag added unwarranted expectations.

2020 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

A sortable list of players drafted in the 2020 NHL Entry draft, including their career scoring after being drafted

www.hockeydb.com

Mercer (122 games played), Jarvis (108 games played), and Lundell (96 games played) all creeping up on Laf's (175 games played - the most of his draft class) total point production.

 

[will1066]

this this this this THIS

it's extremely apparent we were cheated out of the excitement of watching young superstar forwards grow, twice, and we've spent 4 years throwing every possible excuse out there to keep the delusion that they'll ever be more than solid middle 6 players afloat. everything about this has sucked from a development standpoint. no exciting plays from them, completely unnoticable most times, several players in their draft class blowing past them, all the dorks starting 10000 mainboard threads about how we're ruining talent. it all sucks so f***ing bad after we finally get something we had to wait 50+ years for.

I openly admit I have about a mountain of resentment and contempt for kakko and lafreniere the players. this was supposed to be different. a non-rongos approach to things. instead it's been 4 years of agony and as much as I think this org is toxic to talent, they suck plenty on their own. it really sucks.


nathan mackinnon stepped onto the ice a top 3 skater in the world. you saw the talent. you also saw how unbelievably disfunctional those Avs teams were as their supporting cast was gutted. I don't think it's a 1 to 1.

And my point was that it still took him a few years to make the leap and reach his potential. Laf doesn't have top 3 in the world skating. Laf doesn't have top anything. He was scouted to have a well- rounded mix of skills and good hockey IQ. If the scouts felt it was enough to put him over as top of the draft, then they cheated us, and it's not entirely on the Rangers. They only followed the data that 30 other teams followed.

 

[SA16]

It’s quite obviously an organizational issue and not an individual player one.

If Laf gets traded, he goes on an immediate Kirby Dach trajectory. We just have zero patience as an organization and would much rather give opportunity to other players than allow youngsters to grow via taking lumps on the 1st line/PP.

Kirby Dach is scoring at an almost the exact same rate at 5v5 in Montreal than he did in 3 years in Chicago. His PP scoring rate is terrible too. He's just getting way more PP minutes so the raw numbers look better.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Secondly, the Caps and Blues proved to be one-offs, which I never said don't exist, but they are far harder to count on winning as. The one-offs win a small minority of the Cups. The teams who draft two legit star forwards, especially centers, win the vast majority of the Cups. We should be emulating one approach and not the other.

And even the Caps, did they really prove the exception? They have the second best goal scorer to ever play the game. Do we?

Tear it all down to the studs because ONE 21 year old is struggling and might not live up to the hype!

My man, if your plan is to trade everyone away and pray to the gods so that everything perfectly falls into place AND you luck into multiple lottery picks all with the hope of topping:

Zib
Panarin
Kreider
Kakko
Kravtsov
Trochek
Chytil
Laff

And you time everything perfectly. And ignoring the fact you have a 23 year old Norris caliber defenseman, a rising star in Miller, a blossoming Schneider AND the reigning Vezina winning goaltender… You are delusional

 

[bhamill]

he's given numerous looks on the first and 2nd lines this season as well as the last one. this has been mentioned on this and a few other related threads to the point of ad nauseum.

now regarding the similar EV numbers between the 2. stoot's EV numbers are actually more "meaningful" than laffy's. what i mean by that is:

while the game was on yesterday i decided to tinker with the idea of meaningful pts. by that i mean pts scored during the point of the game where the score was a 2 point difference or less. i chose stooots and laffy as i kept hearing about them having identical EV pts. i also did it with trochek as well and chose kucherov as the elite example.

note that power play i totally disregarded.

the tally for this season before yesterday's games:

laffy: 12
stoots: 17
trocheck: 15
kucherov: 26

now if you divided those and subtract from each player's total EV the result would be garbage time pts.

oh stoots has more points than laffy because of the PP. well then yeah the kid earned it didn't he? the team made him audition in practice and he's run with that job since. it'a a big responsibility, especially for a 20-21 year old.

and to disregard PP just to stand on a crutch to defend a player via EV stats is bullshit. at least 75-80% of the time a stanley cup winning team is ranked in the top 10 in PP rankings.

if anybody can lead me to a site that has stats similar to what i attempted to tabulate let me know as it was kinda a pain in the ass to do.

“Meaningful points” are we creating our own subjective stats now to justify our narratives?
Look, the numbers are what they are. The opportunities and usages are what they are. If you can’t accept that I’ll sleep just fine tonight.
All I’m doing is giving some perspective on why not all of us are mired in doom and gloom. You do you, my friend.

 

[bhamill]

True but to this point Laf may have the worst first 3 seasons out of any 1st overall in NHL history. Krav has played about as well as I expected, I didn't expect him to get injured multiple times (which obviously make his stats look worse than they are, it's basically added a few GP where he didn't even play). I didn't expect the coach to hate him so much and still not give (even according to his critics) the guy literally built for 3v3 skills competitions a single shift in OT halfway through the season. But he reminds me of Jack Hughes where he's oozing skill & the analytics are backing it up but the production isn't there yet. Below is Lafreniere, Kakko & Kravtsov this season, in that order.

And he still only has 5 points…
You are demonstrating my point: we all have the ability to temper our expectations based on opportunity, usage, and other circumstance, as well as the rate the player himself mentally and physically matures. I understand you being that way with Krav, I am too. But it doesn’t end there for me.
Its all good buddy. Despite how some people take it, when I try to put Stutzle or Zegras or Hughes or even Krav in perspective, it is not a knock on them.

 

[Rybo]

Last I checked, Stutzle had 3 more even strength points than Lafrenierre.
Pointing this out is NOT a knock on Stutzle, unless you believe that Laf is a Brendl bust or a career bottom sixer or some of the other hot takes on here. Personally I think Stutzle is a good hockey player. I also believe Laf isn’t half as bad as a lot of the takes on here even though I’m not near satisfied with his play. The fact that he is only 3 points behind Stutzle at EV, while still well behind where we want him in his development, is NOT a trashing of Stutzle or a “ he’s overrated,” it’s a simple straightforward statistical comparison. It is kind of a have your cake and eat it too for some people. They want to say how great one player is and the other sucks, but they are statistically comparable. It’s inconvenient, I know, but that’s life.

Yeah, Tim Stuetzle being 20 points over Lafreniere in less games - those are two statistically comparable players

Take your medicine today?

 

[will1066]

I just got a DM from avgard, after I pressed him to post on Laf:

I follow lafresgu in hilites. He look not good becuz bigbellyman Galant not give minites with panarins. It look thru glass for the top pick rangers make big error. No teachings. No divelipments. Laugh all day. It sad. Good day.

--sir avgard, hockey professor

 

[Rybo]

“Meaningful points” are we creating our own subjective stats now to justify our narratives?
Look, the numbers are what they are. The opportunities and usages are what they are. If you can’t accept that I’ll sleep just fine tonight.
All I’m doing is giving some perspective on why not all of us are mired in doom and gloom. You do you, my friend.

Hahahaha this is rich

A condescending attitude from someone whos arguing Stuetzle and Lafreniere arent far off because of ES points

You hold tight to those ES points, maybe one day theyll make you rich like those crypto scams youd clearly fall for

 

[mike14]

I just got a DM from avgard, after I pressed him to post on Laf:

I follow lafresgu in hilites. He look not good becuz bigbellyman Galant not give minites with panarins. It look thru glass for the top pick rangers make big error. No teachings. No divelipments. Laugh all day. It sad. Good day.

--sir avgard, hockey professor

If anything it's minutes without Zib taht are the problem.
Laf with Panarin didn't do much for the 13 games hey were together. In a very small sample size Laf-Mika-KK seemed to work.
Not including last nights game, the forwards Laf played most with in each game and his points are as follows:

		G	A	P
Panarin	Trocheck			0​
Trocheck	Panarin		2​	2​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Panarin	Trocheck	1​		1​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Panarin	Trocheck		1​	1​
Trocheck	Panarin	1​		1​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Panarin	Trocheck			0​
Trocheck	Panarin			0​
Trocheck	Vesey			0​
Chytil	Kakko		2​	2​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Kakko	Chytil		2​	2​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Chytil	Kakko	1​		1​
Trocheck	Goodrow			0​
Trocheck	krav			0​
Trocheck	Kakko			0​
Kakko	Goodrow			0​
Kakko	Zib	1​	1​	2​
Kakko	Zib	1​		1​
Zib	Kakko			0​
Kakko	Chytil			0​
Chytil	Kakko		1​	1​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Kakko	Chytil		2​	2​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Chytil	Kakko		1​	1​
Chytil	Kakko			0​
Chytil	vesey			0​
Vesey	Chytil			0​
CHytil	Vesey			0​

 

[zlev]

Kirby Dach is scoring at an almost the exact same rate at 5v5 in Montreal than he did in 3 years in Chicago. His PP scoring rate is terrible too. He's just getting way more PP minutes so the raw numbers look better.

Kirby Dach has two more even strength points than Lafreniere has assists. He's already better than Dach.

 

[CLW]

Nathan f***ing MacKinnon, now an all-universe uber-star, went from 53 points in year 4 to 97 points in year 5, 16 goals to 39 goals. Won his championship in year 9. Only after realizing that he needed to take winning seriously and ate nothing but carrots and chia seeds he picked up from the dirt beneath his feet -- and making others follow suit, as a vet not as a kid. This came after 4 seasons of elite production.

Shit takes time. We are not in a DreamWorks animated fairy tale where the kids are the stars and supported by loving vets who want only them to succeed and the head coach is a sage voiced by Robert Downey Jr. who always gives the correct advice right before the exciting last act.

J.Hughes is skating around with an A on his chest. MacKinnon and Rantanen were handed A's pretty early on for their team. On the Rangers the kids are last in the line for A's behind the vets in decending order based on age, pretty much the same for PP usage. Not sure if it means much but there it is.

As for fairy tale endings. I was surprised that Gallant put Laffy out there in OT knowing the kid is having a rough time of it lately. But, failure is not necessarily bad it can be a necessary step for growth, to find what you need to do to become effective. MacKinnon, Dahlin etc etc have all had torrid times too that spurred them on.

 

[irishlaxburger2]

Kirby Dach is scoring at an almost the exact same rate at 5v5 in Montreal than he did in 3 years in Chicago. His PP scoring rate is terrible too. He's just getting way more PP minutes so the raw numbers look better.

And if Laf was doing the same, nobody would be complaining about him.

The issue is PP1 time. It’s where everyone accumulates points. IIRC even McDavid is around 50th in the league in 5v5 scoring (or so it was posted a couple weeks back).

 

[Synergy27]

It’s going to be interesting to look back on Panarin’s time here once he is gone.

There is no denying his point production. It’s very hard to argue that a player that scores as many points as he does is anything other than a big positive for the team.

I have been beating him up for a couple of years now. I don’t think he impacts the game with enough frequency and in enough areas of the rink, to warrant his pay check.

If, in the end, it turns out that we paid him to accumulate “empty” PP points, bro down with a mediocre Strome, and destroy the confidence (and maybe careers) of multiple highly touted draft picks, the dude certainly isn’t getting his number raised to the rafters.

I wish it was possible to see the world in which he signed somewhere else.

 

[bhamill]

Yeah, Tim Stuetzle being 20 points over Lafreniere in less games - those are two statistically comparable players

Take your medicine today?

Five EV points more in 5 more minutes a game. If only you bothered to read what I wrote instead of trying to be “clever.” Gotta love these boards.

Hahahaha this is rich

A condescending attitude from someone whos arguing Stuetzle and Lafreniere arent far off because of ES points

You hold tight to those ES points, maybe one day theyll make you rich like those crypto scams youd clearly fall for

Again you should take the time to comprehend what you supposedly read.

 

[ReddestRum]

If, in the end, it turns out that we paid him to accumulate “empty” PP points, bro down with a mediocre Strome, and destroy the confidence (and maybe careers) of multiple highly touted draft picks, the dude certainly isn’t getting his number raised to the rafters.

I wish it was possible to see the world in which he signed somewhere else.

Bread's signing has destroyed the confidence and careers of our kids???

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

“Meaningful points” are we creating our own subjective stats now to justify our narratives?
Look, the numbers are what they are. The opportunities and usages are what they are. If you can’t accept that I’ll sleep just fine tonight.
All I’m doing is giving some perspective on why not all of us are mired in doom and gloom. You do you, my friend.

doom and gloom might be a tad much.

i can forgive and at the same time couldn't forget no matter how hard if i wanted to try that OT 'tard moment. hey it happened we all on. there's still another 41 games to go. i've already pointed out that there might be something to work with if the kid manages somehow to finish the season with 40 total pts.

i'm not expecting elite mackinnon, panarin levels of scoring from the guy. doing so would be considered beyond insane. if he has a career like alex steen i would actually be ecstatic. is that unreasonable? i dunno.

 

[Rybo]

Five EV points more in 5 more minutes a game. If only you bothered to read what I wrote instead of trying to be “clever.” Gotta love these boards.

Nobody cares about your gibberish

Youre over here trying to dress a PPG+ center aged 20 in the same light as a guy with less points in three seasons than one of Stuetzle's

Theres a term for your nonsense; its sometimes known as fake news, but I prefer to go with misleading bullshit

 

[Synergy27]

Bread's signing has destroyed the confidence and careers of our kids???

I think that it can be argued that Bread occupying the top line and PP LW and essentially refusing to play with Kakko may be detrimental to this team’s chances of winning a Cup anytime soon.

I don’t think he’s leading us there as the key cog and I don’t think the guys we have that potentially could do that someday are able to thrive while playing a backseat to him.