Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part II

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My friend @VoluntaryDom made a pretty stunning observation. It's totally counterintuitive and I don't fully understand why but the pattern holds up.

Centers hit their stride in the NHL quicker than wingers. The overwhelming majority of high picks who kicked the door in D+1 are centers.
A couple of theories:

1. Teams are always starved for center depth so it’s easier to get more minutes at C than at W on a scoring line.

2. Centers touch the puck more and therefore score more indirect points.

3. Playing center your whole life accelerates your learning of the nuances of the game that are necessary to translate success in Juniors to the NHL.

It makes sense to me.
 
Where is that data? I’d love to look at it.

This is from a dumb guy (me).

My goal was to see trends of a superstar. This exercise was done with Kaapo Kakko in mind, but it applies to LaFreniere too.

Essentially, I took an arbitrary list of the Top 50 players from here: NHL's Top 50 players going into 2020-21 season

I looked at how they scored (total points and ppg) in their first two seasons. I wanted to see how that matched up to Kakko.

When I did that little exercise, I noticed it was centers that took a longer time to produce than wingers (like superstars). You’ve got the studs from day 1 like McDavid and Crosby, but it took many years for C’s to hit that status (e.g. Zibanejad, Couturier, O’Reilly, Scheifele, etc.)...more so than wingers which was by Y2 in most cases.
There is a bit of an uncanny valley where it's like early centers, then wingers, then the rest of the centers.
 
Now think about how bad Kakko was last year and how far he came over a single summer. Lafreniere is probably going to do the same.

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